Redefining Elite in the Age of AI: Nope, Redefining Average Is the News Story
December 12, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
Business Insider has come up with an interesting swizzle on the AI thirst fest. “AI Is the Great Equalizer.” The subtitle is quite suggestive about a technology which is over 50 years in the making and just one year into its razzle dazzle next big thing with the OpenAI generative pre-trained transformer.
The teacher (the person with the tie) is not quite as enthusiastic about Billy, Kristie, and Mary. The teacher knows that each is a budding Einstein, a modern day Gertrude Stein, or an Ada Lovelace in the eyes of the parent. The reality is that big-time performers are a tiny percentage of any given cohort. One blue chip consulting firm complained that it had to interview 1,000 people to identify a person who could contribute. That was self-congratulatory like Oscar Meyer slapping the Cinco Jota label on a pack of baloney. But the perceptions about the impact of a rapidly developing technology on average performers is are interesting but their validity is unknown. Thanks, MSFT Copilot, you have the parental pride angle down pat. What inspired you? A microchip?
In my opinion, the main idea in the essay is:
Education and expertise won’t count for as much as they used to.
Does this mean the falling scores for reading and math are a good thing? Just let one of the techno giants do the thinking: Is that the message.
I loved this statement about working in law firms. In my experience, the assertion applies to consulting firms as well. There is only one minor problem, which I will mention after you scan the quote:
This is something the law-school study touches on. “The legal profession has a well-known bimodal separation between ‘elite’ and ‘nonelite’ lawyers in pay and career opportunities,” the authors write. “By helping to bring up the bottom (and even potentially bring down the top), AI tools could be a significant force for equality in the practice of law.”
The write up points out that AI won’t have much of an impact on the “elite”; that is, the individuals who can think, innovate, and make stuff happen. The write up says about company hiring strategies contacted about the impact of AI:
They [These firms’ executives] are aiming to hire fewer entry-level people straight out of school, since AI can increasingly take on the straightforward, well-defined tasks these younger workers have traditionally performed. They plan to bulk up on experts who can ace the complicated stuff that’s still too hard for machines to perform.
The write up in interesting, but it is speculative, not what’s happening.
Here’s what we know about the ChatGPT-type revolution after one year:
- Cyber criminals have figured out how to use generative tools to increase the amount of cyber crime requiring sentences or script generation. Score one for the bad actors.
- Older people are either reluctant or fearful of fooling around with what appears to be “magical” software. Therefore, the uptake at work is likely to be slower and probably more cautious than for some who are younger at heart. Score one for Luddites and automation-related protests.
- The younger folk will use any online service that makes something easier or more convenient. Want to buy contraband? Hit those Telegram-type groups. Want to write a report about a new procedure? Hey, let a ChatGPT-type system do it? Worry about its accuracy or appropriateness? Nope, not too much.
Net net: Change is happening, but the use of smart outputs by people who cannot read, do math, or think about Kant’s ideas are unlikely to do much more than add friction to an already creaky bureaucratic machine. As for the future, I don’t know. This dinobaby is not fearful of admitting it.
As for lawyers, remember what Shakespeare said:
“The first thing we do is, let’s kill all the lawyers.”
The statement by Dick the Butcher may apply to quite a few in “knowledge” professions. Including some essayists like this dinobaby and many, many others. The rationale is to just keep the smartest ones. AI is good enough for everything else.
Stephen E Arnold, December 12, 2023
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