Podcasts 2024: The Long Tail Is a Killer

August 9, 2024

This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.

One of my Laws of Online is that the big get bigger. Those who are small go nowhere.

My laws have not been popular since I started promulgating them in the early 1980s. But they are useful to me. The write up “Golden Spike: Podcasting Saw A 22% Rise In Ad Spending In Q2 [2024].” The information in the article, if on the money, appear to support the Arnold Law articulated in the first sentence of this blog post.

The long tail can be a killer. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. How’s life these days? Oh, that’s too bad.

The write up contains an item of information which not surprising to those who paid attention in a good middle school or in a second year economics class. (I know. Snooze time for many students.) The main idea is that a small number of items account for a large proportion of the total occurrences.

Here’s what the article reports:

Unsurprisingly, podcasts in the top 500 attracted the majority of ad spend, with these shows garnering an average of $252,000 per month each. However, the profits made by series down the list don’t have much to complain about – podcasts ranked 501 to 3000 earned about $30,000 monthly. Magellan found seven out of the top ten advertisers from the first quarter continued their heavy investment in the second quarter, with one new entrant making its way onto the list.

This means that of the estimated three to four million podcasts, the power law nails where the advertising revenue goes.

I mention this because when I go to the gym I listen to some of the podcasts on the Leo Laporte TWIT network. At one time, the vision was to create the CNN of the technology industry. Now the podcasts seem to be the voice of the podcasts which cannot generate sufficient money from advertising to pay the bills. Therefore, hasta la vista staff, dedicated studio, and presumably some other expenses associated with a permanent studio.

Other podcasts will be hit by the stinging long tail. The question becomes, “How do these 2.9 million podcasts make money?”

Here’s what I have noticed in the last few months:

Podcasters (video and voice) just quit. I assume they get a job or move in with friends. Van life is too expensive due to the cost of fuel, food, and maintenance now that advertising is chasing the winners in the long tail game.
Some beg for subscribers.
Some point people to their Buy Me a Coffee or Patreon page, among other similar community support services.
Some sell T shirts. One popular technology podcaster sells a $60 screwdriver. (I need that.)
Some just whine. (No, I won’t single out the winning whiner.)

If I were teaching math, this podcast advertising data would make an interesting example of the power law. Too bad most will be impotent to change its impact on podcasting.

Stephen E Arnold, August 9, 2024

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under Financial, News, Social Media, Statistics

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.