Money and Open Source: Unpleasant Taste?
October 23, 2024
Open-source veteran and blogger Armin Ronacher ponders “The Inevitability of Mixing Open Source and Money.” It is lovely when developers work on open-source projects for free out of the goodness of their hearts. However, the truth is these folks can only afford to spend so much time working for free. (A major reason open source documentation is a mess, by the way.)
For his part, Ronacher helped launch Sentry’s Open Source Pledge. That initiative asks companies to pledge funding to open source projects they actively use. It is particularly focused on small projects, like xz, that have a tougher time attracting funds than the big names. He acknowledges the perils of mixing open source and money, as described by Word Press’s David Heinemeier Hansson. But he insists the blend is already baked in. He considers:
“At face value, this suggests that Open Source and money shouldn’t mix, and that the absence of monetary rewards fosters a unique creative process. There’s certainly truth to this, but in reality, Open Source and money often mix quickly. If you look under the cover of many successful Open Source projects you will find companies with their own commercial interests supporting them (eg: Linux via contributors), companies outright leading projects they are also commercializing (eg: MariaDB, redis) or companies funding Open Source projects primarily for marketing / up-sell purposes (uv, next.js, pydantic, …). Even when money doesn’t directly fund an Open Source project, others may still profit from it, yet often those are not the original creators. These dynamics create stresses and moral dilemmas.”
For example, the conflict between Hansson and WP Engine. The tension can also personal stress. Ronacher shares doubts that have plagued him: to monetize or not to monetize? Would a certain project have taken off had he poured his own money into it? He has watched colleagues wrestle with similar questions that affected their health and careers. See his post for more on those issues. The write-up concludes:
“I firmly believe that the current state of Open Source and money is inadequate, and we should strive for a better one. Will the Pledge help? I hope for some projects, but WordPress has shown that we need to drive forward that conversation of money and Open Source regardless of the size of the project.”
Clearly, further discussion is warranted. New ideas from open-source enthusiasts are also needed. Can a balance be found?
Cynthia Murrell, October 23, 2024
A Little AI Surprise: Reasoning Fail
October 22, 2024
Generative AI models predict text. That is it. Oh certainly, those predictions paths can be quite elaborate and complex. But no matter how complicated, LLM processes are simply not akin to human reasoning. So we are not surprised to learn that “Apple’s Study Proves that LLM-Based AI Models Are Flawed Because They Cannot Reason,” as Apple Insider reports. That a study was required to prove the point highlights how poorly this widely-deployed technology is understood.
Apple’s researchers set out to see if they could trip up popular LLMs by adding irrelevant, contextual information to mathematical queries. The answer was a resounding yes. In fact, the more of these extraneous details they added, the worse the models did. But even one was found to reduce the output’s accuracy by as much as 65%. Contributing Editor Charles Martin writes:
“The task the team developed, called ‘GSM-NoOp’ was similar to the kind of mathematic ‘word problems’ an elementary student might encounter. The query started with the information needed to formulate a result. ‘Oliver picks 44 kiwis on Friday. Then he picks 58 kiwis on Saturday. On Sunday, he picks double the number of kiwis he did on Friday.’ The query then adds a clause that appears relevant, but actually isn’t with regards to the final answer, noting that of the kiwis picked on Sunday, ‘five of them were a bit smaller than average.’ The answer requested simply asked ‘how many kiwis does Oliver have?’ The note about the size of some of the kiwis picked on Sunday should have no bearing on the total number of kiwis picked. However, OpenAI’s model as well as Meta’s Llama3-8b subtracted the five smaller kiwis from the total result.”
Unlike schoolchildren, LLMs do not get better at this sort of problem with practice. Martin reminds us these results mirror those of a study done five years ago:
“The faulty logic was supported by a previous study from 2019 which could reliably confuse AI models by asking a question about the age of two previous Super Bowl quarterbacks. By adding in background and related information about the games they played in, and a third person who was quarterback in another bowl game, the models produced incorrect answers.”
Of course they did. Because LLMs cannot reason. Perhaps another type of AI is, or will be, up to these tasks. But if so, it is by definition something other than generative AI? What we know is that some AI wizards cannot get along with their business partners? Is that reasonable? Sure.
Cynthia Murrell, October 22, 2024
Four Years of Research Proves What a Teacher Knows in Five Minutes
October 22, 2024
Just a humanoid processing information related to online services and information access.
The write up “The Phone Ban Has Had a Big Impact on School Work.” No kidding. The article reports a study in Iceland after schools told students, “No mobiles.” The write up says:
A phone ban has been in place at Öldutún School since the beginning of 2019, and according to the principal, it has worked well. The school’s atmosphere and culture have changed for the better, and there is more peace in the classroom.
I assume “peace” means students sort of paying attention, not scrolling TikTok and firing off Snapchats of total coolness. (I imagine a nice looking codfish on the school cafeteria food line. But young people may have different ideas about what’s cool. But I’ve been to Iceland, and to some, fish are quite fetching.)
A typical classroom somewhere in Kentucky. Thanks, MSFT Copilot. The “new and improved version” is a struggle. But so are MSFT security and Windows updates. How is Sam AI-Man these days?
Unfortunately the school without mobiles has not been able to point to newly sprouted genius level performance since the 2019 ban. I am okay with the idea of peace in the classroom.
The write up points out:
It has been reported in Morgunblaðið that students who spend more time on smartphones are less interested in reading than those who use their phones little or not at all. The interest in reading is waning faster and faster as students spend more time on their smart devices. These are the results of research by Kristján Ketill Stefánsson, assistant professor of pedagogy at the University of Iceland’s Faculty of Education. The research is based on data from more than fifteen thousand students in grades 6 to 10 in 120 elementary schools across the country.
I noted this surprising statement:
Both students and parents have welcomed the phone ban, as it was prepared for a whole year in collaboration with the board of the student association, school council and parents, according to Víðisson.
Would this type of ban on mobiles in the classroom work in the expensive private schools in some cities? What about schools in what might be called less salubrious geographic areas? Iceland is one culture; rural Kentucky is another.
My reaction to the write up is positive. The conclusions seem obvious to me and no study was needed. My instincts are that mobile devices are not appropriate for any learning environment. That includes college classrooms and lecture rooms for continuing education credits. But I am a dinobaby. (I look like the little orange dinosaur. What do I know?)
Stephen E Arnold, October 22, 2024
Google Search: AI Images Are Maybe Reality
October 22, 2024
AI generated images, videos, and text are infiltrating the Internet like COVID-19. 0x00000 posted on X the following thread: “Google está muerto.” The thread is Google image search for “baby peacock.” In the past, the image search would yield results of tiny brown chicks from nature blogs, zoos, Wikipedia, a few illustrations, and some social media accounts. The results would be mostly accurate.
Those days are dead.
Why?
The Google search for “baby peacock” returned images of blue, white, and other avian-like things that don’t resemble real peacock chicks. The images, in fact, look like “the idea of a baby peacock.” What does that mean?
The images from the Google search results were all AI generated with only a few being true photos of baby peacocks. Insane Facebook AI slop responded:
“Boomers told us not to trust Wikipedia only to fall for this”
That comment refers to a repost of a so-called white baby peacock with a full tail of plumage. What? The “white baby peacock” resembles someone’s craft project or a Christmas ornament than a real chick. I doubt everyone will pay that close attention, especially because the white baby peacock is adorable.
What are we going to do? Who knows. One approach is to accept AI images as reality. Who will know?
Whitney Grace, October 22, 2024
When Wizards Squabble the Digital World Bleats, “AI Yi AI”
October 21, 2024
No smart software but we may use image generators to add some modern spice to the dinobaby’s output.
The world is abuzz with New York Times “real” news story. From my point of view, the write up reminds me of a script from “The Guiding Light.” The “to be continued” is implicit in the drama presented in the pitch for a new story line. AI wizard and bureaucratic marvel squabble about smart software.
According to “Microsoft and OpenAI’s Close Partnership Shows Signs of Fraying”:
At an A.I. conference in Seattle this month, Microsoft didn’t spend much time discussing OpenAI. Asha Sharma, an executive working on Microsoft’s A.I. products, emphasized the independence and variety of the tech giant’s offerings. “We definitely believe in offering choice,” Ms. Sharma said.
Two wizards squabble over the AI goblet. Thanks, MSFT Copilot, good enough which for you is top notch.
What? Microsoft offers a choice. What about pushing Edge relentlessly? What about the default install of an intelligence officer’s fondest wish: Historical data on a bad actor’s computer? What about users who want to stick with Windows 7 because existing applications run on it without choking? What about users who want to install Windows 11 but cannot because of arbitrary Microsoft restrictions? Choice?
Several observations:
- The tension between Sam AI-Man and Satya Nadella, the genius behind today’s wonderful Microsoft software is not secret. Sam AI-Man found some acceptance when he crafted a deal with Oracle.
- When wizards argue the drama is high because both of the parties to the dispute know that AI is a winner take all game, with losers destined to get only 65 percent of the winner’s size. Others get essentially nothing. Winners get control.
- The anti-MBA organization of OpenAI, Microsoft’s odd deal, and the staffing shenanigans of both Microsoft and OpenAI suggest that neither MSFT’s Nadella or OpenAI’s Sam AI-Man are big picture thinkers.
What will happen now? I think that the Googlers will add a new act to the Sundar & Prabhakar Comedy Tour. The two jokers will toss comments back and forth about how both the Softies and the AI-Men need to let another firm’s AI provide information about organizational planning.
I think the story will be better as a comedy routine. Scrap that “Guiding Light” idea. A soap opera is far to serious for the comedy now on stage.
Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2024
Pavel Durov and Telegram: In the Spotlight Again
October 21, 2024
No smart software used for the write up. The art, however, is a different story.
Several news sources reported that the entrepreneurial Pavel Durov, the found of Telegram, has found a way to grab headlines. Mr. Durov has been enjoying a respite in France, allegedly due to his contravention of what the French authorities views as a failure to cooperate with law enforcement. After his detainment, Mr. Durov signaled that he has cooperated and would continue to cooperate with investigators in certain matters.
A person under close scrutiny may find that the experience can be unnerving. The French are excellent intelligence operators. I wonder how Mr. Durov would hold up under the ministrations of Israeli and US investigators. Thanks, ChatGPT, you produced a usable cartoon with only one annoying suggestion unrelated to my prompt. Good enough.
Mr. Durov may have an opportunity to demonstrate his willingness to assist authorities in their investigation into documents published on the Telegram Messenger service. These documents, according to such sources as Business Insider and South China Morning Post, among others, report that the Telegram channel Middle East Spectator dumped information about Israel’s alleged plans to respond to Iran’s October 1, 2024, missile attack.
The South China Morning Post reported:
The channel for the Middle East Spectator, which describes itself as an “open-source news aggregator” independent of any government, said in a statement that it had “received, through an anonymous source on Telegram who refused to identify himself, two highly classified US intelligence documents, regarding preparations by the Zionist regime for an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran”. The Middle East Spectator said in its posted statement that it could not verify the authenticity of the documents.
Let’s look outside this particular document issue. Telegram’s mostly moderation-free approach to the content posted, distributed, and pushed via the Telegram platform is like to come under more scrutiny. Some investigators in North America view Mr. Durov’s system as a less pressing issue than the content on other social media and messaging services.
This document matter may bring increased attention to Mr. Durov, his brother (allegedly with the intelligence of two PhDs), the 60 to 80 engineers maintaining the platform, and its burgeoning ancillary interests in crypto. Mr. Durov has some fancy dancing to do. One he is able to travel, he may find that additional actions will be considered to trim the wings of the Open Network Foundation, the newish TON Social service, and the “almost anything” goes approach to the content generated and disseminated by Telegram’s almost one billion users.
From a practical point of view, a failure to exercise judgment about what is allowed on Messenger may derail Telegram’s attempts to become more of a mover and shaker in the world of crypto currency. French actions toward Mr. Pavel should have alerted the wizardly innovator that governments can and will take action to protect their interests.
Now Mr. Durov is placing himself, his colleagues, and his platform under more scrutiny. Close scrutiny may reveal nothing out of the ordinary. On the other hand, when one pays close attention to a person or an organization, new and interesting facts may be identified. What happens then? Often something surprising.
Will Mr. Durov get that message?
Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2024
Can Prabhakar Do the Black Widow Thing to Technology at Google?
October 21, 2024
No smart software but we may use image generators to add some modern spice to the dinobaby’s output.
The reliable (mostly?) Wall Street Journal ran a story titled“Google Executive Overseeing Search and Advertising Leaves Role.” The executive in question is Prabhakar Raghavan, the other half of the Sundar and Prabhakar Comedy Team. The wizardly Prabhakar is the person Edward Zitron described as “The Man Who Killed Google Search.” I recommend reading that essay because it has more zip than the Murdoch approach to poohbah analysis.
I want to raise a question because I assume that Mr. Zitron is largely correct about the demise of Google Search. The sleek Prabhakar accelerated the decline. He was the agent of the McKinsey think infused in his comedy partner Sundar. The two still get laughs at their high school reunions amidst chums and more when classmates gather to explain their success to one another.
The Google approach: Who needs relevance? Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Not quite excellent.
What is the question? Here it is:
Will Prabhakar do to Google’s technology what he did to search?
My view is that Google’s technology has demonstrated corporate ossification. The company “invented”, according to Google lore, the transformer. Then Google — because it was concerned about its invention — released some of it as open source and then watched as Microsoft marketed AI as the next big thing for the Softies. And what was the outfit making Microsoft’s marketing coup possible? It was Sam AI-Man.
Microsoft, however, has not been a technology leader for how many years?
Suddenly the Google announced a crisis and put everyone on making Google the leader in AI. I assume the McKinsey think did not give much thought to the idea that MSFT’s transformer would be used to make Google look darned silly. In fact, it was Prabhakar who stole the attention of the pundits with a laughable AI demonstration in Paris.
Flash forward from early 2023 to late 2024 what’s Google doing with technology? My perception is that Google is trying to create AI winners, capture the corporate market from Microsoft, and convince as many people as possible that if Google is broken apart, AI in America will flop.
Yes, the fate of the nation hangs on Google’s remaining a monopoly. That sounds like a punch line to a skit in the Sundar and Prabhakar Comedy Show.
Here’s my hypothesis: The death of search (the Edward Zitron view) is a job well done. The curtains fall on Act I of the Google drama. Act II is about the Google technology. The idea is that the technology of the online advertising monopoly defines the future of America.
Stay tuned because the story will be streamed on YouTube with advertising, lots of advertising, of course.
Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2024
Online Search: The Old Function Is in Play
October 18, 2024
Just a humanoid processing information related to online services and information access.
We spotted an interesting marketing pitch from Kagi.com, the pay-to-play Web search service. The information is located on the Kagi.com Help page at this link. The approach is what I call “fact-centric marketing.” In the article, you will find facts like these:
In 2022 alone, search advertising spending reached a staggering 185.35 billion U.S. dollars worldwide, and this is forecast to grow by six percent annually until 2028, hitting nearly 261 billion U.S. dollars.
There is a bit of consultant-type analysis which explains the difference between Google’s approach labeled “ad-based search” and the Kagi.com approach called “user-centric search.” I don’t want to get into an argument about these somewhat stark bifurcations in the murky world of information access, search, and retrieval. Let’s just accept the assertion.
I noted more numbers. Here’s a sampling (not statistically valid, of course):
Google generated $76 billion in US ad revenue in 2023. Google had 274 million unique visitors in the US as of February 2023. To estimate the revenue per user, we can divide the 2023 US ad revenue by the 2023 number of users: $76 billion / 274 million = $277 revenue per user in the US or $23 USD per month, on average! That means there is someone, somewhere, a third party and a complete stranger, an advertiser, paying $23 per month for your searches.
The Kagi.com point is:
Choosing to subscribe to Kagi means that while you are now paying for your search you are getting a fair value for your money, you are getting more relevant results, are able to personalize your experience and take advantage of all the tools and features we built, all while protecting your and your family’s privacy and data.
Why am I highlighting this Kagi.com Help information? Leo Laporte on the October 13, 2024, This Week in Tech program talked about Kagi. He asserted that Kagi uses Bing, Google, and its own search index. I found this interesting. If true, Mr. Laporte is disseminating the idea that Kagi.com is a metasearch engine like Ixquick.com (now StartPage.com). The murkiness about what a Web search engine presents to a user is interesting.
A smart person is explaining why paying for search and retrieval is a great idea. It may be, but Google has other ideas. Thanks, You.com. Good enough
In the last couple of days I received an invitation to join a webinar about a search system called Swirl, which connotes mixing content perhaps? I also received a spam message from a fund called TheStreet explaining that the firm has purchased a block of Elastic B.V. shares. A company called provided an interesting explanation of what struck me as a useful way to present search results.
Everywhere companies are circling back to the idea that one cannot “find” needed information.
With Google facing actual consequences for its business practices, that company is now suggesting this angle: “Hey, you can’t break us up. Innovation in AI will suffer.”
So what is the future? Will vendors get a chance to use the Google search index for free? Will alternative Web search solutions become financial wins? Will metasearch triumph, using multiple indexes and compiling a single list of results? Will new-fangled solutions like Glean dominate enterprise information access and then move into the mainstream? Will visual approaches to information access kick “words” to the curb?
Here are some questions I like to ask those who assert that they are online experts, and I include those in the OSINT specialist clan as well:
- Finding information is an unsolved problem. Can you, for example, easily locate a specific frame from a video your mobile device captured a year ago?
- Can you locate the specific expression in a book about linear algebra germane to the question you have about its application to an AI procedure?
- Are you able to find quickly the telephone number (valid at the time of the query) for a colleague you met three years ago at an international conference?
As 2024 rushes to what is likely to be a tumultuous conclusion, I want to point out that finding information is a very difficult job. Most people tell themselves they can find the information needed to address a specific question or task. In reality, these folks are living in a cloud of unknowing. Smart software has not made keyword search obsolete. For many users, ChatGPT or other smart software is a variant of search. If it is easy to use and looks okay, the output is outstanding.
So what? I am not sure the problem of finding the right information at the right time has been solved. Free or for fee, ad supported or open sourced, dumb string matching or Fancy Dan probabilistic pattern identification — none is delivering what so many people believe are on point, relevant, timely information. Don’t even get me started on the issue of “correct” or “accurate.”
Marketers, stand down. Your assertions, webinars, advertisements, special promotions, jargon, and buzzwords do not deliver findability to users who don’t want to expend effort to move beyond good enough. I know one thing for certain, however: Finding relevant information is now more difficult than it was a year ago. I have a hunch the task is only become harder.
Stephen E Arnold, October 18, 2024
Another Reminder about the Importance of File Conversions That Work
October 18, 2024
Salesforce has revamped its business plan and is heavily investing in AI-related technology. The company is also acquiring AI companies located in Israel. CTech has the lowdown on Salesforce’s latest acquisition related to AI file conversion: “Salesforce Acquiring Zoomin For $450 Million.”
Zoomin is an Israeli data management provider for unstructured at and Salesforce purchased it for $450 million. This is way more than what Zoomin was appraised at in 2021, so investors are happy. Earlier in September, Salesforce also bought another Israeli company Own. Buying Zoomin is part of Salesforce’s long term plan to add AI into its business practices.
Since AI need data libraries to train and companies also possess a lot of unstructured data that needs organizing, Zoomin is a wise investment for Salesforce. Zoomin has a lot to offer Salesforce:
“Following the acquisition, Zoomin’s technology will be integrated into Salesforce’s Agentforce platform, allowing customers to easily connect their existing organizational data and utilize it within AI-based customer experiences. In the initial phase, Zoomin’s solution will be integrated into Salesforce’s Data Cloud and Service Cloud, with plans to expand its use across all Salesforce solutions in the future.”
Salesforce is taking steps that other businesses will eventually follow. Will Salesforce start selling the converted data to train AI? Also will Salesforce become a new Big Tech giant?
Whitney Grace, October 18, 2024
Hey, France, Read Your Pavel-Grams: I Cooperate
October 18, 2024
Just a humanoid processing information related to online services and information access.
Did you know that Telegram has shared IPs since 2018. Do your homework!
Telegram is a favored message application, because it is supposed to protect user privacy, especially for crypto users. Not say, says Coin Telegraph in the article, “Telegram Has Been Disclosing User IPs Since 2018, Durov Says.” Before you start posting nasty comments about Telegram’s lies, the IPs the message is sharing belong to bad actors. CEO Pavel Durov shared on his Telegram channel that his company reports phone numbers and IP addresses to law enforcement.
The company has been disclosing criminal information to authorities since 2018, but only when proper legal procedure is followed. Telegram abides by formal legal requests when they are from relevant communication lines. Durov stressed that Telegram remains an anonymous centered app:
Durov said the news from last week showed that Telegram has been “streamlining and unifying its privacy policy across different countries.” He stressed that Telegram’s core principles haven’t changed, as the company has always sought to comply with relevant local laws ‘as long as they didn’t go against our values of freedom and privacy.’ He added: ‘Telegram was built to protect activists and ordinary people from corrupt governments and corporations — we do not allow criminals to abuse our platform or evade justice.”’
French authorities indicted Durov in August 2024 on six charges related to illicit activity via Telegram. He posted the $5.5 million bail in September, then revealed to the public how his company complies with legal requests after calling the charges misguided.
Kudos for Telegram disclosing the information to be transparent.
Whitney Grace, October 18, 2024
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