Identifying Misinformation: A Task Not Yet Mastered
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
On New Year’s eve the US Department of Treasury issued a news release about Russian interference in the recent US presidential election. Tucked into the document “Treasury Sanctions Entities in Iran and Russia That Attempted to Interfere in the U.S. 2024 Election” was this passage:
GRU-AFFILIATED ENTITY USES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TOOLS TO INTERFERE IN THE U.S. 2024 ELECTION
The Moscow-based Center for Geopolitical Expertise (CGE), founded by OFAC-designated [Office of Foreign Asset Control — Editor] Aleksandr Dugin, directs and subsidizes the creation and publication of deepfakes and circulated disinformation about candidates in the U.S. 2024 general election. CGE personnel work directly with a GRU unit that oversees sabotage, political interference operations, and cyberwarfare targeting the West. Since at least 2024, a GRU officer and CGE affiliate directed CGE Director Valery Mikhaylovich Korovin (Korovin) and other CGE personnel to carry out various influence operations targeting the U.S. 2024 presidential election. At the direction of, and with financial support from, the GRU, CGE and its personnel used generative AI tools to quickly create disinformation that would be distributed across a massive network of websites designed to imitate legitimate news outlets to create false corroboration between the stories, as well as to obfuscate their Russian origin. CGE built a server that hosts the generative AI tools and associated AI-created content, in order to avoid foreign web-hosting services that would block their activity. The GRU provided CGE and a network of U.S.-based facilitators with financial support to: build and maintain its AI-support server; maintain a network of at least 100 websites used in its disinformation operations; and contribute to the rent cost of the apartment where the server is housed. Korovin played a key role in coordinating financial support from the GRU to his employees and U.S.-based facilitators. In addition to using generative AI to construct and disseminate disinformation targeting the U.S. electorate in the lead up to the U.S. 2024 general election, CGE also manipulated a video it used to produce baseless accusations concerning a 2024 vice presidential candidate in an effort to sow discord amongst the U.S. electorate. Today, OFAC is designating CGE and Korovin pursuant to E.O. 13848 for having directly or indirectly engaged in, sponsored, concealed, or otherwise been complicit in foreign malign influence in the 2024 U.S. election. Additionally, OFAC is designating CGE pursuant to E.O. 13694, as amended, E.O. 14024, and section 224 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act of 2017 (CAATSA) for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the GRU, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 13694, as amended, E.O. 14024, and section 224 of CAATSA. OFAC is also designating Korovin pursuant to E.O. 14024 for being or having been a leader, official, senior executive officer, or member of the board of directors of CGE, a person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to E.O. 14024.
Several questions arise:
- Was the smart software open source or commercial? What model or models powered the misinformation effort?
- What functions could intermediaries / service providers add to their existing systems to identify and block the actions of an adversary’s operative? (Obviously existing software to identify “fake” content do not work particularly well.)
- What safeguard standards can be used to prevent misuse of smart software? Are safeguard standards possible or too difficult to implement in a “run fast and break things” setting?
- What procedures and specialized software are required to provide security professionals with a reliable early warning system? The fact of this interference illustrates that the much-hyped cyber alert services do not function in a way sufficiently accurate to deal with willful misinformation “factories.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
UK The Register Emits News of Chinese Cyber Excreta
January 8, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
I loved this write up from the UK’s The Register online information service: “China’s Cyber Intrusions Took a Sinister Turn in 2024.” The write up gathers together some notable cyber events and links them to the Middle Kingdom. Examples include:
- Router exploits
- Compromising infrastructure of major American cities
- The exfiltration of data from US telephony companies
The write up includes the zippy names cyber security researchers give these exploits and their perpetrators; for example, Volt Typhoon and Vanguard Panda.
Perhaps the most important statement in the article is, in my opinion:
“We cannot say with certainty that the adversary has been evicted, because we still don’t know the scope of what they’re doing,” Jeff Greene, CISA’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, told reporters during a Salt Typhoon briefing in early December.
Several observations:
- The attacks are not confined to the estimable Microsoft software; more commercial software is providing warm, comfortable havens for attacking systems and stealing data
- The existing cyber security systems — no matter what the marketers say in sales material and at law enforcement / intelligence conferences — does not work very well
- Different cyber investigators discover novel, unknown, and possibly unique exploits unearthed and exploited by bad actors in China. Other countries enjoy the fruits of lousy security too I want to add.
So what? What happens if one shoots enough bullets at Butch Cassidy’s and the Sundance Kids’ adobe hideout? Answer: It falls down. Each exploit is a digital bullet hole. Without remediation — serious remediation — the US may suffer some structural collapses. PR, smarmy talk, and excuses won’t do the job.
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
FOGINT: Divergent Trajectories for Facebook and Telegram
January 7, 2025
A post from the FOGINT team.
The Techmeme splash page featured several Meta (Facebook, WhatsApp, etc.) stories. Here’s a mini-version of the home page with the Zuck-related stories identified:
The separate “stories” presented one theme: Free speech. Here’s a representative item from today’s Techmeme page at 9 20 am US Eastern: “Meta Is Ending Its Fact-Checking Program in Favor of a Community Notes System Similar to X.” The news item from NBC reports:
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a series of major changes to the company’s moderation policies and practices Tuesday, citing a shifting political and social landscape and a desire to embrace free speech. Zuckerberg said that Meta will end its fact-checking program with trusted partners and replace it with a community-driven system similar to X’s Community Notes. The company is also making changes to its content moderation policies around political topics and undoing changes that reduced the amount of political content in user feeds, Zuckerberg said.
For me, this says, “Cut some costs and respond to “a shifting political and social landscape.” The direction in which Meta is moving seems to be “freer speech,” albeit within whatever Silly Putty guardrails Mr. Zuckerberg decrees.
In contrast, Telegram — which has out-innovated Meta for many years — is taking a different path through environmental changes in the datasphere. Since France required that Mr. Durov, founder and “owner” of Telegram remain in France until his company’s behavior has been dissected, Telegram is moving on a different trajectory. A few details of this charge have been reported in “Telegram Hands U.S. Authorities Data on Thousands of Users.” This exposé declares:
Telegram, the popular social network and messaging application which has also become a hotbed for all sorts of serious criminal activity, provided U.S. authorities with data on more than 2,200 users last year, according to newly released data from Telegram. The news shows a massive spike in the number of data requests fulfilled by Telegram after French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in August, in part because of the company’s unwillingness to provide user data in a child abuse investigation. Between January 1 and September 30, 2024, Telegram fulfilled 14 requests “for IP addresses and/or phone numbers” from the United States, which affected a total of 108 users, according to Telegram’s Transparency Reports bot. But for the entire year of 2024, it fulfilled 900 requests from the U.S. affecting a total of 2,253 users, meaning that the number of fulfilled requests skyrocketed between October and December, according to the newly released data. “Fulfilled requests from the United States of America for IP address and/or phone number: 900,” Telegram’s Transparency Reports bot said when prompted for the latest report by 404 Media. “Affected users: 2253,” it added.
Since France’s direct action, Telegram has apparently become even more cooperative with law enforcement. Plus, Telegram agreed to participate in activities designed to identify human traffickers. On the surface, it appears that Telegram is becoming more agreeable to legitimate requests from law enforcement. Telegram has become associated with a number of interesting and possibly illegal activities in some countries. Examples range from groups (private and public) discussing terrorism and child pornography.
But that “shift” to cooperation distracts from what is a major change at Telegram and its affiliated entities like The Open Network Foundation, Ton.social, and assorted investment vehicles. Specifically, Telegram is doubling down on crypto currency. The Telegram infrastructure is being shaped and in some cases repurposed to host services, features, and distributed applications related to crypto. The idea, as the FOGINT team understands it, is to provide a hub or nexus for traditional financial services built on crypto, not the US dollar, euros, or “traditional” and regulated currencies.
A second effect of this shift at Telegram is its push to provide a home for a wide range of seemingly harmless online games. On the surface, a parent or a person as old as the producer of this blog, would glance at the display and think, “Oh, another child’s game.” Those individuals would be incorrect. Telegram “click to earn” games include addictive hooks and the upside of playing are points which can be converted to crypto currency. Gambling and the downstream financial services required by big winners or “whales” are the customers. The addictive element is just part of Telegram’s marketing activities.
Net net: Meta wants free speech or at least to appear to be lining up with the “shifting political and social landscape.” Telegram is using social as a way to speed use of crypto as an alternative to the US dollar. Social media giants are similar in some ways, but at this point in time, the two companies are on divergent trajectories.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
Dubai: The 21st Century Crypto “Silicon Valley”
January 7, 2025
Information from the FOGINT research team.
How prescient was Telegram when it selected Dubai as headquarters of a decentralized, distributed company? After Pavel Durov bounced from Moscow to Berlin, to Singapore to San Francisco, and ended up in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, his judgment seems good. FOGINT’s view is that he listened to UAE government officials and determined that that country wanted to become the financial hub for crypto currency. The goal of both UEA and Telegram aligned: Both wanted to exploit a desire of many countries and financial entrepreneurs from the US-centric financial system to one based on crypto currency, largely unregulated crypto currency cut loose from the shackles of the US financial system. A standard other than and competitive with the US dollar promised a shift of finance from Wall Street to Sheikh Zayed Road.
The plan is not a secret. “UAE to Attract Crypto Ventures Amid EU’s Stringent MiCA Regulation: Experts” reports that regulations in Western Europe are adding a kick in the pants for some crypto-centric innovators. The regulation is Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). Its purpose is to establish a legal framework — that is, uniform rules for crypto assets — across the EU. MiCA might be the booster that the United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern states want. A more supportive regulatory environment and a thriving crypto community exist in the United Arab Emirates.
According to the Crypto News’ report:
The MiCA regulation introduces a pan-European licensing and supervisory regime for crypto-assets, exchanges, and service providers… Among its stringent requirements, small stablecoin issuers must hold 30% of their reserves in low-risk EU-based commercial banks, while major players like Tether face a mandate to maintain 60% or more in similar institutions. While aimed at ensuring market stability, these rules are seen as increasing operational costs, potentially undermining the financial viability of many firms.
The FOGINT team wants to point out that the UAE provides a “crucible” for crypto innovation; specifically:
- A regulatory environment different from that in the US and Western Europe; for example, a Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in Dubai oversees the regulation, licensing, and governance of virtual assets
- Tax benefits because there is currently no direct taxation on cryptocurrencies in the UAE
- Infrastructure provides a “Silicon Valley”-type of magnetic pull situated almost equidistant from Asian financial hubs and Western European money centers
- The UAE supports the crypto industry via the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre and the Dubai International Financial Centre
The UAE has cultivated a robust ecosystem for crypto and blockchain innovation with more than 500 crypto startups are now based in Dubai’s free zones. One poster child for Dubai’s flexibility is Telegram’s choice of the city as the location for its “headquarters.” (Keep in mind that Telegram is a distributed and decentralized organization, so the “staff” in Dubai is modest in size for the company’s size.) Plus, the UAE has implemented measures to ensure investor protection and market stability with Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements. Also, the Central Bank of the UAE approved a custodial insurance product to protect financial institutions and their clients from potential losses due to hacks or internal fraud.
One key question: Are there technical professionals with crypto experience in Dubai? The answer, in part, can be approached via the attendance at the November 2024 TON Foundation Gateway Conference. The conference attracted about 400 people in 2023. In November 2024, more than 2000 crypto savvy professionals participated in two day program held in Dubai. The UAE may be on the path to becoming the hot spot for crypto innovation.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
Ground Hog Day: Smart Enterprise Search
January 7, 2025
I am a dinobaby. I also wrote the Enterprise Search Report, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd editions. I wrote The New Landscape of Search. I wrote some other books. The publishers are long gone, and I am mostly forgotten in the world of information retrieval. Read this post, and you will learn why. Oh, no AI helped me out unless I come up with an art idea. I used Stable Diffusion for the rat, er, sorry, ground hog day creature.
I think it was 2002 when the owner of a publishing company asked me if I thought there was an interest in profiles of companies offering “enterprise search solutions.” I vaguely remember the person, and I will leave it up to you to locate a copy of the 400 page books I wrote about enterprise search.
The set up for the book was simple. I identified the companies which seemed to bid on government contracts for search, companies providing search and retrieval to organizations, and outfits which had contacted me to pitch their enterprise search systems before they were exiting stealth mode. By the time the first edition appeared in 2004, the companies in the ESR were flogging their products.
The ground hog effect is a version of the Yogi Berra “Déjà vu all over again” thing. Enterprise search is just out of reach now and maybe forever.
The enterprise search market imploded. It was there and then it wasn’t. Can you describe the features and functions of these enterprise search systems from the “golden age” of information retrieval:
- Innerprise
- InQuira
- iPhrase
- Lextek Onix
- MondoSearch
- Speed of Mind
- Stratify (formerly Purple Yogi)
The end of enterprise search coincided with large commercial enterprises figuring out that “search” in a complex organization was not one thing. The problem remains today. Lawyers in a Fortune 1000 company want one type of search. Marketers want another “flavor” of search. The accountants want a search that retrieves structured and unstructured data plus images of invoices. Chemists want chemical structure search. Senior managers want absolutely zero search of their personal and privileged data unless it is lawyers dealing with litigation. In short, each unit wants a highly particularized search and each user wants access to his or her data. Access controls are essential, and they are a hassle at a time when the notion of an access control list was like learning to bake bread following a recipe in Egyptian hieroglyphics.
These problems exist today and are complicated by podcasts, video, specialized file types for 3D printing, email, encrypted messaging, unencrypted messaging, and social media. No one has cracked the problem of a senior sales person who changes a PowerPoint deck to close a deal. Where is that particular PowerPoint? Few know and the sales person may have deleted the file changed minutes before the face to face pitch. This means that baloney like “all” the information in an organization is searchable is not just stupid; it is impossible.
The key events were the legal and financial hassles over Fast Search & Transfer. Microsoft bought the company in 2008 and that was the end of a reasonably capable technology platform and — believe it or not — a genuine alternative to Google Web search. A number of enterprise search companies sold out because the cost of keeping the technology current and actually running a high-grade sales and marketing program spelled financial doom. Examples include Exalead and Vivisimo, among others. Others just went out of business: Delphes (remember that one?). The kiss of death for the type of enterprise search emphasized in the ESR was the acquisition of Autonomy by Hewlett Packard. There was a roll up play underway by OpenText which has redefined itself as a smart software company with Fulcrum and BRS Search under its wing.
What replaced enterprise search when the dust settled in 2011? From my point of view it was Shay Banon’s Elastic search and retrieval system. One might argue that Lucid Works (né Lucid Imagination) was a player. That’s okay. I am, however, to go with Elastic because it offered a version as open source and a commercial version with options for on-going engineering support. For the commercial alternatives, I would say that Microsoft became the default provider. I don’t think SharePoint search “worked” very well, but it was available. Google’s Search Appliance appeared and disappeared. There was zero upside for the Google with a product that was “inefficient” at making a big profit for the firm. So, Microsoft it was. For some government agencies, there was Oracle.
Oracle acquired Endeca and focused on that computationally wild system’s ability to power eCommerce sites. Oracle paid about $1 billion for a system which used to be an enterprise search with consulting baked in. One could buy enterprise search from Oracle and get structured query language search, what Oracle called “secure enterprise search,” and may a dollop of Triple Hop and some other search systems the company absorbed before the end of the enterprise search era. IBM talked about search but the last time I drove by IBM Government systems in Gaithersburg, Maryland, it like IBM search, had moved on. Yo, Watson.
Why did I make this dalliance on memory lane the boring introduction to a blog post? The answer is that I read “Are LLMs At Risk Of Going The Way Of Search? Expect A Duopoly.” This is a paywalled article, so you will have to pony up cash or go to a library. Here’s an abstract of the write up:
The evolution of LLMs (Large Language Models) will lead users to prefer one or two dominant models, similar to Google’s dominance in search.
Companies like Google and Meta are well-positioned to dominate generative AI due to their financial resources, massive user bases, and extensive data for training.
Enterprise use cases present a significant opportunity for specialized models.
Therefore, consumer search will become a monopoly or duopoly.
Let’s assume the Forbes analysis is accurate. Here’s what I think will happen:
First, the smart software train will slow and a number of repackagers will use what’s good enough; that is, cheap enough and keeps the client happy. Thus, a “golden age” of smart search will appear with outfits like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and a handful of others operating as utilities. The US government may standardize on Microsoft, but it will be partners who make the system meet the quite particular needs of a government entity.
Second, the trajectory of the “golden age” will end as it did for enterprise search. The costs and shortcomings become known. Years will pass, probably a decade, maybe less, until a “new” approach becomes feasible. The news will diffuse and then a seismic event will occur. For AI, it was the 2023 announcement that Microsoft and OpenAI would change how people used Microsoft products and services. This created the Google catch up and PR push. We are in the midst of this at the start of 2025.
Third, some of the problems associated with enterprise information and an employee’s finding exactly what he or she needs will be solved. However, not “all” of the problems will be solved. Why? The nature of information is that it is a bit like pushing mercury around. The task requires fresh thinking.
To sum up, the problem of search is an excellent illustration of the old Hegelian chestnut of Hegelian thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. This means the problem of search is unlikely to be “solved.” Humans want answers. Some humans want to verify answers which means that the data on the sales person’s laptop must be included. When the detail oriented human learns that the sales person’s data are missing, the end of the “search solution” has begun.
The question “Will one big company dominate?” The answer is, in my opinion, maybe in some use cases. Monopolies seem to be the natural state of social media, online advertising, and certain cloud services. For finding information, I don’t think the smart software will be able to deliver. Examples are likely to include [a] use cases in China and similar countries, [b] big multi-national organizations with information silos, [c] entities involved in two or more classified activities for a government, [d] high risk legal cases, and [e] activities related to innovation, trade secrets, and patents, among others.
The point is that search and retrieval remains an extraordinarily difficult problem to solve in many situations. LLMs contribute some useful functional options, but by themselves, these approaches are unlikely to avoid the reefs which sank the good ships Autonomy and Fast Search & Transfer, and dozens of others competing in the search space.
Maybe Yogi Berra did not say “Déjà vu all over again.” That’s okay. I will say it. Enterprise search is “Déjà vu all over again.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
Why Buzzwords Create Problems. Big Problems, Right, Microsoft?
January 7, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
I read an essay by Steven Sinofsky. He worked at Microsoft. You can read about him in Wikipedia because he was a manager possibly associated with Clippy. He wrote an essay called “225. Systems Ideas that Sound Good But Almost Never Work—”Let’s just…” The write up is about “engineering patterns that sound good but almost never work as intended.”
I noticed something interesting about his explanation of why many software solutions go off the rails, fail to work, create security opportunities for bad actors associated with entities not too happy with the United States, and on-going headaches for for hundreds of millions of people.
Here is a partial list of the words and bound phrases from his essay:
Add an API
Anomaly detection
Asynchronous
Cross platform
DSL
Escape to native
Hybrid parallelism
Multi-master writes
Peer to peer
Pluggable
Sync the data
What struck me about this essay is that it reveals something I think is important about Microsoft and probably other firms tapping the expertise of the author; that is, the jargon drives how the software is implemented.
I am not certain that my statement is accurate for software in general. But for this short blog post, let’s assume that it applies to some software (and I am including Microsoft’s own stellar solutions as well as products from other high profile and wildly successful vendors). With the ground rules established, I want to offer several observations about this “jargon drives the software engineering” assertion.
First, the resulting software is flawed. Problems are not actually resolved. The problems are papered over with whatever the trendy buzzword says will work. The approach makes sense because actual problem solving may not be possible within a given time allocation or a working solution may fail which requires figuring out how to not fail again.
Second, the terms reveal that marketing think takes precedence over engineering think. Here’s what the jargon creators do. These sales oriented types grab terms that sound good and refer to an approach. The “team” coalesces around the jargon, and the jargon directs how the software is approached. Does hybrid parallelism “work”? Who knows, but it is the path forward. The manager says, “Let’s go team” and Clippy emerges or the weird opaqueness of the “ribbon.”
Third, the jargon shaped by art history majors and advertising mavens defines the engineering approach. The more successful the technical jargon, the more likely those people who studied Picasso’s colors or Milton’s Paradise Regained define the technical frame in which a “solution” is crafted.
How good is software created in this way? Answer: Good enough.
How reliable is software created in this way? Answer: Who knows until someone like a paying customer actually uses the software.
How secure is the software created in this way? Answer: It is not secure as the breaches of the Department of Treasury, the US telecommunications companies, and the mind boggling number of security lapses in 2024 prove.
Net net: Engineering solutions based on jargon are not intended to deliver excellence. The approach is simply “good enough.” Now we have some evidence that industry leaders realize the fact. Right, Clippy?
Stephen E Arnold, January 8, 2025
Salesforce Surfs Agentic AI and Hopes to Stay on the Long Board
January 7, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
I spotted a content marketing play, and I found it amusing. The spin was enough to make my eyes wobble. “Intelligence (AI). Its Stock Is Up 39% in 4 Months, and It Could Soar Even Higher in 2025” appeared in the Motley Fool online investment information service. The headline is standard fare, but the catchphrase in the write up is “the third wave of AI.” What were the other two waves, you may ask? The first wave was machine learning which is an age measured in decades. The second wave which garnered the attention of the venture community and outfits like Google was generative AI. I think of the second wave as the content suck up moment.
So what’s the third wave? Answer: Salesforce. Yep, the guts of the company is a digitized record of sales contacts. The old word for what made a successful sales person valuable was “Rolodex.” But today one may as well talk about a pressing ham.
What makes this content marketing-type article notable is that Salesforce wants to “win” the battle of the enterprise and relegate Microsoft to the bench. What’s interesting is that Salesforce’s innovation is presented this way:
The next wave of AI will build further on generative AI’s capabilities, enabling AI to make decisions and take actions across applications without human intervention. Salesforce (CRM -0.42%) CEO Marc Benioff calls it the “digital workforce.” And his company is leading the growth in this Agentic AI with its new Agentforce product.
Agentic.
What’s Salesforce’s secret sauce? The write up says:
Artificial intelligence algorithms are only as good as the data used to train them. Salesforce has accurate and specific data about each of its enterprise customers that nobody else has. While individual businesses could give other companies access to those data, Salesforce’s ability to quickly and simply integrate client data as well as its own data sets makes it a top choice for customers looking to add AI agents to their “workforce.” During the company’s third-quarter earnings call, Benioff called Salesforce’s data an “unfair advantage,” noting Agentforce agents are more accurate and less hallucinogenic as a result.
To put some focus on the competition, Salesforce targets Microsoft. The write up says:
Benioff also called out what might be Salesforce’s largest competitor in Agentic AI, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). While Microsoft has a lot of access to enterprise customers thanks to its Office productivity suite and other enterprise software solutions, it doesn’t have as much high-quality data on a business as Salesforce. As a result, Microsoft’s Copilot abilities might not be up to Agentforce in many instances. Benioff points out Microsoft isn’t using Copilot to power its online help desk like Salesforce.
I think it is worth mentioning that Apple’s AI seems to be a tad problematic. Also, those AI laptops are not the pet rock for a New Year’s gift.
What’s the Motley Fool doing for Salesforce besides making the company’s stock into a sure-fire winner for 2025? The rah rah is intense; for example:
But if there’s one thing investors have learned from the last two years of AI innovation, it’s that these things often grow faster than anticipated. That could lead Salesforce to outperform analysts’ expectations over the next few years, as it leads the third wave of artificial intelligence.
Let me offer several observations:
- Salesforce sees a marketing opportunity for its “agentic” wrappers or apps. Therefore, put the pedal to the metal and grab mind share and market share. That’s not much different from the company’s attention push.
- Salesforce recognizes that Microsoft has some momentum in some very lucrative markets. The prime example is the Microsoft tie up with Palantir. Salesforce does not have that type of hook to generate revenue from US government defense and intelligence budgets.
- Salesforce is growing, but so is Oracle. Therefore, Salesforce feels that it could become the cold salami in the middle of a Microsoft and Oracle sandwich.
Net net: Salesforce has to amp up whatever it can before companies that are catching the rising AI cloud wave swamp the Salesforce surf board.
Stephen E Arnold, January 7, 2025
A Technologist Realizes Philosophy 101 Was Not All Horse Feathers
January 6, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. No smart software involved in this blog post.
I am not too keen on non-dinobabies thinking big thoughts about life. The GenX, Y, and Zedders are good at reinventing the wheel, fire, and tacos. What some of these non-dinobabies are less good at is thinking about the world online information has disestablished and is reassembling in chaotic constructs.
The essay, published in HackerNoon, “Here’s Why High Achievers Feel Like Failures” explains why so many non-dinobabies are miserable. My hunch is that the most miserable are those who have achieved some measure of financial and professional success and embrace whinge, insecurity, chemicals to blur mental functions, big car payments, and “experiences.” The essay does a very good job of explaining the impact of getting badges of excellence for making a scoobie (aka lanyard, gimp, boondoggle, or scoubidou) bracelet at summer camp to tweaking an algorithm to cause a teen to seek solace in a controlled substance. (One boss says, “Hey, you hit the revenue target. Too bad about the kid. Let’s get lunch. I’ll buy.”)
The write up explains why achievement and exceeding performance goals can be less than satisfying. Does anyone remember the Google VP who overdosed with the help of a gig worker? My recollection is that the wizard’s boat was docked within a few minutes of his home stuffed with a wifey and some kiddies. Nevertheless, an OnlyFans potential big earner was enlisted to assist with the chemical bliss that may have contributed to his logging off early.
Here’s what the essay offers this anecdote about a high performer whom I think was a entrepreneur riding a rocket ship:
Think about it:
- Three years ago, Mark was ecstatic about his first $10K month. Now, he beats himself up over $800K months.
- Two years ago, he celebrated hiring his first employee. Now, managing 50 people feels like “not scaling fast enough.”
- Last year, a feature in a local business journal made his year. Now, national press mentions barely register.
His progress didn’t disappear. His standards just kept pace with his growth, like a shadow that stretches ahead no matter how far you walk.
The main idea is that once one gets “something”; one wants more. The write up says:
Every time you level up, your brain does something fascinating – it rewrites your definition of “normal.” What used to be a summit becomes your new base camp. And while this psychological adaptation helped our ancestors survive, it’s creating a crisis of confidence in today’s achievement-oriented world.
Yep, the driving force behind achievement is the need to succeed so one can achieve more. I am a dinobaby, and I don’t want to achieve anything. I never did. I have been lucky: Born at the right time. Survived school. Got lucky and was hired on a fluke. Now 60 years later I know how I achieve the modicum of success I accrued. I was really lucky, and despite my 80 years, I am not yet dead.
The essay makes this statement:
We’re running paleolithic software on modern hardware. Every time you achieve something, your brain…
- Quickly normalizes the achievement (adaptation)
- Immediately starts wanting more (drive)
- Erases the emotional memory of the struggle (efficiency)
Is there a fix? Absolutely. Not surprisingly the essay includes a to-do list. The approach is logical and ideally suited to those who want to become successful. Here are the action steps:
Once you’ve reviewed your time horizons, the next step is to build what I call a “Progress Inventory.” Dedicate 15 minutes every Sunday night to reflect and fill out these three sections:
Victories Section
- What’s easier now than it was last month?
- What do you do automatically that used to require thought?
- What problems have disappeared?
- What new capabilities have you gained?
Growth Section
- What are you attempting now that you wouldn’t have dared before?
- Where have your standards risen?
- What new problems have you earned the right to have?
- What relationships have deepened or expanded?
Learning Section
- What mistakes are you no longer making?
- What new insights have you gained?
- What patterns are you starting to recognize?
- What tools have you mastered?
These two powerful tools – the Progress Mirror and the Progress Inventory – work together to solve the central problem we’ve been discussing: your brain’s tendency to hide your growth behind rising standards. The Progress Mirror forces you to zoom out and see the bigger picture through three critical time horizons. It’s like stepping back from a painting to view the full canvas of your growth. Meanwhile, the weekly Progress Inventory zooms in, capturing the subtle shifts and small victories that compound into major transformations. Used together, these tools create something I call “progress consciousness” – the ability to stay ambitious while remaining aware of how far you’ve come.
But what happens when the road map does not lead to a zen-like state? Because I have been lucky, I cannot offer an answer to this question of actual, implicit, or imminent failure. I can serve up some observations:
- This essay has the backbone for a self-help book aimed at insecure high performers. My suggestion is to buy a copy of Thomas Harris’ I’m OK — You’re Okay and make a lot of money. Crank out the merch with slogans from the victories, growth, and learning sections of the book.
- The explanations are okay, but far from new. Spending some time with Friedrich Nietzsche’s Der Wille zur Macht. Too bad Friedrich was dead when his sister assembled the odds and ends of Herr Nietzsche’s notes into a book addressing some of the issues in the HackerNoon essay.
- The write up focuses on success, self-doubt, and an ever-receding finish line. What about the people who live on the street in most major cities, the individuals who cannot support themselves, or the young people with minds trashed by digital flows? The essay offers less information for these under performers as measured by doubt ridden high performers.
Net net: The essay makes clear that education today does not cover some basic learnings; for example, the good Herr Friedrich Nietzsche. Second, the excitement of re-discovering fire is no substitute for engagement with a social fabric that implicitly provides a framework for thinking and behaving in a way that others in the milieu recognize as appropriate. This HackerNoon essay encapsulates why big tech and other successful enterprises are dysfunctional. Welcome to the digital world.
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2025
China Smart, US Dumb: The Deepseek Interview
January 6, 2025
This is an official dinobaby post. I used AI to assist me in this AI. In fact, I used the ChatGPT system which seems to be the benchmark against which China’s AI race leader measures itself. This suggests that Deepseek has a bit of a second-place mentality, a bit of jealousy, and possibly a signal of inferiority, doesn’t it?
“Deepseek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race” is a good example of what the Middle Kingdom is revealing about smart software. The 5,000 word essay became available as a Happy New Year’s message to the US. Like the girl repairing broken generators without fancy tools, the message is clear to me: 2025 is going to be different.
Here’s an abstract of the “interview” generated by a US smart software system. I would have used Deepseek, but I don’t have access to it. I used the ChatGPT service which Deepseek has surpassed to create the paragraph below. Make sure the summary is in line with the ChinaTalk original and read the 5,000 word original and do some comparisons.
Deepseek, a Chinese AI startup, has emerged as an innovator in the AI industry, surpassing OpenAI’s o1 model with its R1 model on reasoning benchmarks. Backed entirely by High-Flyer, a top Chinese quantitative hedge fund, Deepseek focuses on foundational AI research, eschewing commercialization and emphasizing open-source development. The company has disrupted the AI market with breakthroughs like the multi-head latent attention and sparse mixture-of-experts architectures, which significantly reduce inference and computational costs, sparking a price war among Chinese AI developers. Liang Wenfeng, Deepseek CEO, aims to achieve artificial general intelligence through innovation rather than imitation, challenging the common perception that Chinese companies prioritize commercialization over technological breakthroughs. Wenfeng’s background in AI and engineering has fostered a bottom-up, curiosity-driven research culture, enabling the team to develop transformative models. Deepseek Version 2 delivers unparalleled cost efficiency, prompting major tech giants to reduce their API prices. Deepseek’s commitment to innovation extends to its organizational approach, leveraging young, local talent and promoting interdisciplinary collaboration without rigid hierarchies. The company’s open-source ethos and focus on advancing the global AI ecosystem set it apart from other large-model startups. Despite industry skepticism about China’s capacity for original innovation, Deepseek is reshaping the narrative, positioning itself as a catalyst for technological advancement. Liang’s vision highlights the importance of confidence, long-term investment in foundational research, and societal support for hardcore innovation. As Deepseek continues to refine its AGI roadmap, focusing on areas like mathematics, multimodality, and natural language, it exemplifies the transformative potential of prioritizing innovation over short-term profit.
I left the largely unsupported assertions in this summary. I also retained the repeated emphasis on innovation, originality, and local talent. With the aid of smart software, I was able to retain the essence of the content marketing propaganda piece’s 5,000 words.
You may disagree with my viewpoint. That’s okay. Let me annoy you further by offering several observations:
- The release of this PR piece coincides with additional information about China’s infiltration of the US telephone network and the directed cyber attack on the US Treasury.
- The multi-pronged content marketing / propaganda flow about China’s “local talent” is a major theme of these PR efforts. From the humble brilliant girl repairing equipment with primitive tools because she is a “genius” to the notion that China’s young “local talent” have gone beyond what the “imported” talent in the US has been able to achieve are two pronged. One tine of the conceptual pitchfork is that the US is stupid. The other tine is that China just works better, smarter, faster, and cheaper.
- The messaging is largely accomplished using free or low cost US developed systems and methods. This is definitely surfing on other people’s knowledge waves.
Net net: Mr. Putin is annoyed that the European Union wants to block Russia-generated messaging about the “special action.” The US is less concerned about China’s propaganda attacks. The New Year will be interesting, but I have lived through enough “interesting times” to do much more than write blogs posts from my outpost in rural Kentucky. What about you, gentle reader? China smart, US dumb: Which is it?
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2025
Love Phishing? New Angling Gear to Try
January 6, 2025
Registrars have long run out of TLDs (top-level domains) aka the endings at the end of websites. TLDs like .com, .net, .org, etc. are hot commodities, but in order to expand their offerings registrars added new endings that are unfortunately a new tool for bad actors says Krebs On Security: “Why Phishers Love New TLDs Like .shop, .top and .xyz“. Phishing attacks increased 40% in 2024, mostly on Web sites that end with .shop, .top., xyz, and other generic TLDs (gTLDs).
Interisle Consulting conducted a study on new gTLDs sponsored y many anti-spam organizations. Interisle discovered that gTLDs accounted for only 11% of the new domain market, but 37% of all cybercrime domains from September 2023 to August 2024.
The golds domains are very inexpensive to purchase. They can then be used on Web sites used for phishing scams and more:
“Spammers and scammers gravitate toward domains in the new gTLDs because these registrars tend to offer cheap or free registration with little to no account or identity verification requirements. For example, among the gTLDs with the highest cybercrime domain scores in this year’s study, nine offered registration fees for less than $1, and nearly two dozen offered fees of less than $2.00. By comparison, the cheapest price identified for a .com domain was $5.91.”
Scammers are very excited because the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) is about to drop a boatload of new gTLDs sometime in 2026. Despite all the information about bad actors using the gTlDs, ICANN will press forward. Interisle also found that phishers can avoid paying for gTlDs with subdomain providers like weekly.com, pages.dev, and blogspot.com.
Registrars don’t care as along as they get paid. They don’t ask any questions, slap on anonymity; and collect referral fees until someone shuts the bad actors down.
Whitney Grace, January 6, 2025
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