Google: Do Small Sites Need Anti Terrorism Help or Is the Issue Better Addressed Elsewhere?
January 3, 2023
Are “little sites” really in need of Google’s anti-terrorism tool? Oh, let me be clear. Google is — according to “Google Develops Free Terrorism-Moderation Tool for Smaller Websites” — in the process of creating Googley software. This software will be:
a free moderation tool that smaller websites can use to identify and remove terrorist material, as new legislation in the UK and the EU compels Internet companies to do more to tackle illegal content.
And what institutions are working with Google on this future software? The article reports:
The software is being developed in partnership with the search giant’s research and development unit Jigsaw and Tech Against Terrorism, a UN-backed initiative that helps tech companies police online terrorism.
What’s interesting to me is that the motivation for this to-be software or filtering system is in development. The software, it seems, does not exist.
Why would Google issue statements about vaporware?
The article provides a clue:
The move comes as Internet companies will be forced to remove extremist content from their platforms or face fines and other penalties under laws such as the Digital Services Act in the EU, which came into force in November, and the UK’s Online Safety bill, which is expected to become law this year.
I understand. Google’s management understands that regulation and fines are not going away in 2023. It is logical, therefore, to get in front of the problem. How does Google propose to do this?
Yep, vaporware. (I have a hunch there is a demonstration available.) Nevertheless, the genuine article is not available to small Web sites, who need help in coping with terrorism-related content.
How will the tool work? The article states:
Jigsaw’s tool aims to tackle the next step of the process and help human moderators make decisions on content flagged as dangerous and illegal. It will begin testing with two unnamed sites at the beginning of this year.
Everything sounds good when viewed the top of Mount Public Relations, where the vistas are clear and the horizons are unlimited.
I want to make one modest observation: Small Web sites run on hosting services. These hosting services are, in my opinion, more suitable locations for filtering software. The problem is that hosting providers comprise a complex and diverse group of enterprises. In fact, I have yet to receive from my research team a count of service providers that is accurate and comprehensive.
Pushing the responsibility to the operator of a single Web site strikes me as a non-functional approach. Would it make sense for Google’s tool to be implemented in service providers. The content residing on the service providers equipment or co-located hardware and in the stream of data for virtual private systems or virtual private servers. The terrorism related content would be easier to block.
Let’s take a reasonable hosting service; for example, Hertzner in Germany or OVHCloud in France. The European Union could focus on these enabling nodes and implement either the Google system if and when it becomes available and actually works or an alternative filtering method devised by a European team. (I would suggest that Europol or similar entities can develop the needed filters, test them, and maintain them.) Google has a tendency to create or talk about solutions and then walk away after a period of time. Remember Google’s Web Accelerator?)
Based on our research for an upcoming presentation to a group of investigators focused on cyber crime, service providers (what I call enablers) should be the point of attention in an anti-terrorism action. Furthermore, these enablers are also pivotal in facilitating certain types of online crime. Examples abound. These range from right-wing climate activists using services in Romania to child pornography hosted on what we call “shadow ISPs.” These shadow enablers operate specialized services specifically to facilitate illegal activities within specialized software like The Onion Router and other obfuscation methods.
For 2023, I advocate ignoring PR motivated “to be” software. I think the efforts of national and international law enforcement should be directed at the largely unregulated and often reluctant “enablers.” I agree that some small Web site operators could do more. But I think it is time to take a closer look at enablers operating from vacant lots in the Seychelles or service providers running cyber fraud operations to be held responsible.
Fixing the Internet requires consequences. Putting the focus on small Web sites is a useful idea. But turning up the enforcement and regulatory heat on the big outfits will deliver more heat where being “chill” has allowed criminal activity to flourish. I have not mentioned the US and Canada. I have not forgotten that there are enablers operating in plain sight in such places as Detroit and Québec City. Google’s PR play is a way to avoid further legal and financial hassles.
It is time to move from “to be” software to “taking purposeful, intentional action.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 3, 2023
Need a Human for Special Work? Just Buy One Maybe?
December 29, 2022
Is it possible to purchase a person? Judging from the rumors I have heard in rural Romania, outside the airport in Khartoum, and in a tavern in Tirana — I would suggest that the answer is “possibly.” The Times of London is not into possibilities if the information in “Maids Trafficked and Sold to Wealthy Saudis on Black Market” is accurate. Keep in mind that I am mindful of what I call open source information blindspots. Shaped, faked, and weaponized information is now rampant.
The article focuses on an ecommerce site called Haraj.sa. The article explains:
[The site] Saudi Arabia’s largest online marketplace, through which a Times investigation shows that hundreds of domestic workers are being illegally trafficked and sold to the highest bidders.
Furthermore, the Times adds:
The app, which had 2.5 million visits last year — more than Amazon or AliExpress within the kingdom — is still available on the Apple and Google Play stores despite being criticised by the UN’s Special Rapporteurs in 2020 for facilitating modern slavery.
If true, the article is likely to make for some uncomfortable days as the world swings into 2023; specifically:
- The Saudi government
- Apple
- Assorted law enforcement professionals.
If the information in the write up is accurate, several of the newspaper’s solicitors will be engaged in conversations with other parties’ solicitors. I assume that there will be some conversations in Mayfair and Riyadh about the article. Will Interpol become curious? Probably.
Let’s step back and ask some different questions. I am assuming that some of the information in the article is “correct”; that is, one can verify screenshots or chase down the source of the information. Maybe the lead journalist will consent to an interview on a true crime podcast. Whatever.
Consider these questions:
- Why release the story at the peak of some countries’ holiday season? Is the timing designed to minimize or emphasize the sensitive topic of alleged slavery, the Kingdom’s conventions, or the apparent slipshod app review process at controversial US high technology companies?
- What exactly did or does Apple and Google know about the app for the Haraj marketplace? If the Times’ story is accurate, what management issue exists at each of these large, but essential to some, companies?
- Is the ecommerce site operating within the Kingdom’s cultural norms or is the site itself breaking outside legal guidelines? What does Saudi Arabia say about this site?
To sum up, human trafficking is a concern for many individuals, government entities, and non-governmental organizations. I keep coming back to the question “Why now?” The article states:
Apple said: “We strictly prohibit the solicitation or promotion of illegal behaviour, including human trafficking and child exploitation, in the App Store and across every part of our business. We take any accusations or claims around this behaviour very seriously.” Google declined to comment. Haraj, Saudi Arabia’s human rights commission and the government have been contacted for a response.
Perhaps taking more time to obtain comments would have been useful? What’s the political backstory for the disclosure of the allegedly accurate information during the holiday season? Note that the story is behind a paywall which further limits its diffusion.
Net net: Many questions have I.
Stephen E Arnold, December 29, 2022
Palantir Makes Clear That Its Aggressively Marketed Systems May Not Work as Advertised
December 21, 2022
The real journalists at the Wall Street Journal has made painfully clear that Palantir’s smart software and sophisticated platform for functioning like the seeing stone in Lord of the Rings does not work.
You can read the real news analysis in “Palantir Misfires on Revenue Tied SPAC Deals.” The main point of the write up is that Palantir, equipped with proprietary technology and oodles of seeing stone expert, lost a great deal of money quickly.
The article says:
The bets have backfired.
So what? No big deal. Tens of millions gone, maybe hundreds of millions. The bigger loss is the exposure of the shortcomings of smart software. What did Palantir’s spokesperson say:
The market has turned an it is now clear that these investments were unsuccessful. It was a bet on a group of early stage companies that, with the benefit of hindsight, we wish we did not make.
But Palantir’s marketing since the firm open for intelligence analysis in 2003 or almost two decades ago has pitched the system’s ability to reveal what ordinary intelware cannot identify. In my files, I have some Palantir marketing material. Here’s an example:
Who doesn’t want data sovereignty? ©Palantir Technologies
Several observations:
- The Palantir management team presumably had access to Gotham and other Palantir technology. But the Palantir system did deliver massive financial losses. Some seeing stone.
- In my opinion, Palantir made big bets in order to get a big payoff so that the company’s financial strength and the excellence of its smart software would be evident. What’s evident is that even Palantir’s software and its wizards cannot get the Palantir systems to be right about “bets.”
- Intelware and policeware vendors typically sell to government and selected financial services customers. Converting intelligence software tuned to the needs of a three letter agency has not worked in the past, and it is now evident Palantir may be failing in its commercial push now.
- Intelware works because no matter how slick the intelware is, governments also rely on old fashioned methods before taking action.
- Palantir’s technology is almost 20 years old, based on open source, and highly derivative. There are better, faster, and cheaper options available from Palantir’s competitors.
Net net: Palantir has embraced full throttle marketing. The company has done some interesting things regarding the IBM Analysts Notebook file formats. Palantir’s investment were, in my opinion, investments which made it attractive to the recipients of Palantir’s funds to become Palantir customers. As I write this, Palantir’s marketing is chugging along, but Palantir’s share price is a stellar $6.43 a share. A blind seeing stone? Hmmmm. Good question.
Stephen E Arnold, December 21, 2022
Hello, Lawmakers in Greece. Have You Heard about Open Source Software?
December 15, 2022
I read a story from an outfit which makes quoting one of the stories risky business. The write up in question is “As Wiretap Claims Rattle Government, Greece Bans Spyware.” The article presents as real news — allegedly the old fashioned kind when newspapers were arbiters of truth via stringers — that Greece outlaws what it calls commercial spyware. For a number of years, I have used the term “intelware” to describe the specialized services and software provided to government agencies by commercial enterprises and open source developers.
The article does the normal handwaving associated with products and services which have been available since the mid 19th century. Those early systems chugged along within products from Bell, Systems Development Corporation, and others. I have found the bland names fascinating. Systems Development Corporation? What could be better? If you read Jill Lepore’s techno-noir history, you will know more than you ever wanted to know about Simulmatics. There’s a descriptive company name for you, right?
What happens when a government bans specialized services and software? Some interesting things; for example, it may be tough to know when warships from a friendly country are converging on a critical island. What if a country on Greece’s border gets frisky with its Soviet era tanks and artillery? The answer is, “License those specialized software and systems. Now!”
In terms of the ban on commercial intelware, what’s Greece going to do with the open source version of Maltego or one of dozens of other tools which can ingest digital content and output useful facts. What happens when one of those open source intelware tools requires an extension of functions?
The answer is to hire a consulting firm, hopefully not one affiliated with a certain jewelry store in Athens, to create bespoke code. Once that’s done, won’t government entities use these tools to protect citizen and monitor potential threats?
The answer is, “You bet your life.” The secret word is “politicians.” I am not sure of Greek’s elected officials or the people reporting on the world of intelware understand the difference between handwaving and getting a particular job done.
And the story. Oh, objective and an example of publicizing the considered viewpoints of elected officials.
Stephen E Arnold, December 15, 2022
A Digital Schism: Is It the 16th Century All Over Again?
December 12, 2022
I noted “FBI Calls Apple’s Enhanced iCloud Encryption Deeply Concerning As Privacy Groups Hail It As a Victory for Users.” I am tempted to provide some historical color about Galileo, Jesuits, and infinitesimals. I won’t. I will point out that schisms appear to be evident today and may be as fraught as those when data flows were not ripping apart social norms. (How bad was it in the 16th century? Think in terms of toasting in fires those who did not go with the program. Quite toasty for some.)
The write up explains:
Apple yesterday [December 7, 2022] announced that end-to-end encryption is coming to even more sensitive types of iCloud data, including device backups, contacts, messages, photos, and more, meeting the longstanding demand of both users and privacy groups who have rallied for the company to take the significant step forward in user privacy.
Who is in favor of Apple’s E2EE push? The article says:
We [the Electronic Frontier Foundation] applaud Apple for listening to experts, child advocates, and users who want to protect their most sensitive data. Encryption is one of the most important tools we have for maintaining privacy and security online. That’s why we included the demand that Apple let users encrypt iCloud backups in the Fix It Already campaign that we launched in 2019.
Across the E2EE chess board is the FBI. The article points out:
In a statement to The Washington Post, the FBI, the largest intelligence agency in the world, said it’s “deeply concerned with the threat end-to-end and user-only-access encryption pose.” The bureau said that end-to-end encryption and Apple’s Advanced Data Protection make it harder for them to do their work and that they request “lawful access by design.”
I don’t have a dog in this commercial push for E2EE encryption which is one component in Apple’s marketing of itself as the Superman/Superwoman of truth, justice, and the American way. (A 30 percent app store tariff is part of this mythic set up as well.) I understand the concern of the investigators, but I am retired and sitting on the sidelines as I watch the Grim Reaper’s Rivian creep closer.
Several observations:
- In the boundary between these two sides or factions, the emergent behavior will get around the rules. That emergent behavior is a consequence of apparently irreconcilable differences. The impact of this schism will reverberate for an unknown amount of time.
- Absolutism makes perfect sense in a social setting where one side enjoys near total control of behavior, access, thoughts, etc. However we live in a Silicon Valley environment partially fueled by phenomenological existentialism. Toss in the digital flows of information, and the resulting mixture is likely to be somewhat unpredictable.
- Compromise will be painful but baby steps will be taken. Even Iran is reassigning morality police to less riot inducing activities. China has begun to respond to increasingly unhappy campers in lock down mode. Like I said, Baby steps.
Net net: Security and privacy are a bit like love and Plato’s chair. Welcome to the digital Middle Ages. The emergent middle class may well be bad actors.
Stephen E Arnold, December 12, 2022
A Legal Information Truth Inconvenient, Expensive, and Dangerous
December 5, 2022
The Wall Street Journal published “Justice Department Prosecutors Swamped with Data As Cases Leave Long Digital Trails.” The write up addressed a problematic reality without craziness. The basic idea is that prosecutors struggle with digital information. The consequences are higher costs and in some cases allowing potentially problematic individuals to go to Burger King or corporate practices to chug along with felicity.
The article states:
Federal prosecutors are swamped by data, as the way people communicate and engage in behavior scrutinized by investigators often leaves long and complicated digital trails that can outpace the Justice Department’s technology.
What’s the fix? This is a remarkable paragraph:
The Justice Department has been working on ways to address the problem, including by seeking additional funding for electronic-evidence technology and staffing for US attorney’s offices. It is also providing guidance in an annual training for prosecutors to at times collect less data.
Okay, more money which may or may not be spent in a way to address the big data issues, more lawyers (hopefully skilled in manipulating content processing systems functions), annual training, and gather less information germane to a legal matter. I want to mention that misinformation, reformation of data, and weaponized data are apparently not present in prosecutors’ data sets or not yet recognized as a problem by the Justice Department.
My response to this interesting article includes:
- This is news? The issue has been problematic for many years. The vendors of specialized systems to manage evidence, index and make searchable content from disparate sources, and output systems which generate a record of what lawyer accessed what and when are asserting their systems can handle this problem. Obviously either licensees discover the systems don’t work like the demos or cannot handle large flows of disparate content.
- The legal industry is not associated with groundbreaking information innovation. I may be biased, but I think of lawyers knowing more about billing for their time than making use of appropriate, reliable technology for managing evidence. Excel timesheets are one thing. Dark Web forum content, telephone intercepts, and context free email and chat messages are quite different. Annual training won’t change the situation. The problem has to be addressed by law schools and lawyer certification systems. Licensing a super duper search system won’t deal with the problem no matter what consultants, vendors, and law professors say.
- The issue of “big data” is real, particularly when there are some many content objects available to a legal team, its consultants, and the government professionals working on a case or a particular matter. It is just easier to gather and then try to make sense of the data. When the necessary information is not available, time or money runs out and everyone moves on. Big data becomes a process that derails some legal proceedings.
My view is that similar examples of “data failure” will surface. The meltdown of crypto? Yes, too much data. The downstream consequences of certain medical products? Yes, too much data and possibly the subtle challenge of data shaping by certain commercial firms? The interlocks among suppliers of electrical components? Yes, too much data and possibly information weaponization by parties to a legal matter?
When online meant keyword indexing and search, old school research skills and traditional data collection were abundant. Today, short cuts and techno magic are daily fare.
It is time to face reality. Some technology is useful, but human expertise and judgment remain essential. Perhaps that will be handled in annual training, possibly on a cruise ship with colleagues? A vendor conference offering continuing education credits might be a more workable solution than smart software with built in workflow.
Stephen E Arnold, December 5, 2022
Europol Take Down Despite a Bad Actor Haven, Encryption, and Modern Business Methods
November 28, 2022
First, Europol and a group of investigators shut down a drug operation. “Operation Desert Light: Europol Take Down Massive Cocaine Super Cartel” reported:
…49 people were arrested across six European countries, the EU’s police agency, Europol, said.
The somewhat terse news story referenced a couple of factoids that I found interesting:
- The article mentioned that there were six senior criminals running the operation. This to me suggests what I call in my lectures to law enforcement and intelligence professionals “industrialized crime.” The idea is that the precepts and methods are ones widely used by successful businesses. Just as the ideas about engineering efficiency and MBA profit maximization have diffused in legitimate enterprises, bad actors have been good students and implementers.
- One bad actor fled Europe and operated from Dubai. Dubai has, for some including this particular bad actor, has become a destination of choice for some pursued by authorities representing other countries. What makes Dubai a possible safe haven? What additional steps are needed to reduce the appeal of Dubai and certain other countries?
- The article mentions “encrypted phones.” In my lectures, I discuss the Teflon effect of secure mobile devices and digital currencies which I describe as Bitcoin or variants.
Net net: More direct action by governments is necessary to [a] speed up investigations and [b] remove barriers to appropriate surveillance by direct and indirect methods. Crime is an emergent feature of online systems and services. To prevent criminal activity from becoming the dominant feature of online, a rethink of systems and methods may provide fruitful.
Just my opinion.
Stephen E Arnold, November 28, 2022
DYOR and OSINT Vigilantes
November 7, 2022
DYOR is an acronym used by some online investigators for “do your own research.” The idea is that open source intelligence tools provide information that can be used to identify bad actors. Obviously once an alleged bad actor has been identified, that individual can be tracked down. The body of information gathered can be remarkably comprehensive. For this reason, some law enforcement, criminal analysts, and intelligence professionals have embraced OSINT or open source intelligence as a replacement for the human-centric methods used for many years. Professionals understand the limitations of OSINT, the intelware tools widely available on GitHub and other open source software repositories, and from vendors. The most effective method for compiling information and doing data analysis requires subject matter experts, sophisticated software, and access to information from Web sites, third-party data providers, and proprietary information such as institutional knowledge.
If you are curious about representative OSINT resources used by some professionals, you can navigate to www.osintfix.com and click. The site will display one of my research team’s OSINT resources. The database the site pulls from contains more than 3,000 items which we update periodically. New, useful OSINT tools and services become available frequently. For example, in the work for one of our projects, we came across a useful open source tool related to Tor relays. It is called OrNetStats. I mention the significance of OSINT because I have been doing lectures about online research. Much of the content in those lectures focuses on open source and what I call OSINT blind spots, a subject few discuss.
The article “The Disturbing Rise of Amateur Predator=Hunting Stings: How the Search for Men Who Prey on Underage Victims Became a YouTube Craze” unintentionally showcases another facet of OSINT. Now anyone can use OSINT tools and resources to examine an alleged bad actor, gather data about an alleged crime, and pursue that individual. The cheerleading for OSINT has created a boom in online investigations. I want to point out that OSINT is not universally accurate. Errors can creep into data intentionally and unintentionally. Examples range from geo-spoofing, identifying the ultimate owner of an online business, and content posted by an individual to discredit a person or business. Soft fraud (that is, criminal type actions which are on the edge of legality like selling bogus fashion handbags on eBay) is often supported by open source information which has been weaponized. One example is fake reviews of restaurants, merchants, products, and services.
I urge you to work through the cited article to get a sense of what “vigilantes” can do with open source information and mostly unfiltered videos and content on social media. I want to call attention to four facets of OSINT in the context of what the cited article calls “predator-hunting stings”:
First, errors and false conclusions are easy to reach. One example is identifying the place of business for an online service facilitating alleged online crime. Some services displace the place of business for some online actors in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean or on obscure islands with minimal technical infrastructure.
Second, information can be weaponized to make it appear that an individual is an alleged bad actor. Gig work sites allow anyone to spend a few dollars to have social media posts created and published. Verification checks are essentially non-existent. One doesn’t need a Russia- or China-system intelligence agency; one needs a way to hire part time workers usually at quite low rates. How does $5 sound.
Third, the buzz being generated about OSINT tools and techniques is equipping more people than ever before to become Sherlock Holmes in today’s datasphere. Some government entities are not open to vigilante inputs; others are. Nevertheless, hype makes it seems that anything found online is usable. Verification and understanding legal guidelines remain important. Even the most scrupulous vigilante may have difficulty getting the attention of some professionals, particularly government employees.
Fourth, YouTube itself has a wide range of educational and propagandistic videos about OSINT. Some of these are okay; others are less okay. Cyber investigators undergo regular, quite specific training in tools, sources, systems, and methods. The programs to which I have been exposed include references to legal requirements and policies which must be followed. Furthermore, OSINT – including vigilante-type inputs – have to be verified. In my lectures, I emphasize that OSINT information should be considered background until those data or the items of information have been corroborated.
What’s the OSINT blind spot in the cited article’s report? My answer is, “Verification and knowledge of legal guideless is less thrilling than chasing down an alleged bad actor.” The thrill of the hunt is one thing; hunting the right thing is another. And hunting in the appropriate way is yet another.
DYOR is a hot concept. It is easy to be burned.
Stephen E Arnold, November 7, 2022
Academics Can Predict Crime: What about Close Enough for Horseshoes Accuracy?
July 6, 2022
I have no phat phaux phrench bulldog in this upcoming academic free-for-all. I read “Algorithm Predicts Crime a Week in Advance, But Reveals Bias in Police Response.” Yellow lights flash.
The article is a summary of a longer research paper published by wizards at the University of Chicago, an outstanding institution located in a safe, well-lit, and community-oriented area of Chicago. Home of the Bears and once the literal stomping grounds of the P Stone Nation. (And, Yes, I am intentionally leaving part of the gang’s name out of my reference. Feel free to use the full gang name yourself.)
The write up says:
Data and social scientists from the University of Chicago have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. The model can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy.
Predicting crime a week before the incident or incidents sounds like an application of predictive analytics. I think there was an outfit which started at Indiana University which came up with something similar. That system attracted some attention and some skepticism.
But humans are curious and applying mathematical recipes to available data is for some an interesting way to pursue grants, publicity, and maybe some start up funding.
But 90 percent. That begs the question, “What about that other 10 percent?” How low does the model go for acceptable outputs? Maybe 60 percent confidence? Maybe lower?
The write up continues:
Previous efforts at crime prediction often use an epidemic or seismic approach, where crime is depicted as emerging in “hotspots” that spread to surrounding areas. These tools miss out on the complex social environment of cities, however, and don’t consider the relationship between crime and the effects of police enforcement.
I know I have mentioned Banjo (now SafeX AI) and the firm’s patents. Some of these patent documents provide useful summaries of some of the algorithms used in predictive models. What’s strikes me as important about math-centric outputs is that methods are useful — up to a point. I have a canned lecture which identifies the 10 most used mathy methods and identifies how the data sets going in can be poisoned by an intentional actor. The culprit can be smart software generating data in the manner of AI synthetic data systems or by humans working for a government funded entity in St. Petersburg, Russia.
However, there have been a few high hurdles predictive systems have to jump over in a clean, fluid manner; for instance:
- Identifying and filtering certain data. Bad data can have a significant impact of the outputs. My recollection is that analysis of a predictive system in California revealed wide variation in the collection of data and the consistency of the data from both humans and automated sources
- Refining actionable outputs. Some of these outputs are often wide of the mark. This means that scarce resources may be deployed on a wild goose chase or investigation of actors who are not “bad” or involved in an incident
- Real time not correlating with the past. Numerous contextual issues arise in real time, and predictive systems operate in what I call a time disconnected mode. For those on the pointy end of the stick, this time variance can create a situation in which the predictive outputs are not just a few degrees off center, they are orbiting around a beach club in Bermuda.
If you want to read the entire academic “we have cracked this problem” article, navigate to this link. You will have to pay to read this remarkable article.
Stephen E Arnold, July 6, 2022
An Analyst Wrestles with the Palantir Realities
May 23, 2022
Palantir Technologies in my world view is a services and software company positioned as a provider of intelware. Intelware means software and services which allow users to extract high-value information from text, numeric, and possibly image and video data.
Palantir, founded in 2003, has been influenced from its inception by precursor software like the original i2 Ltd. Analyst Notebook and BAE Systems Detica. Both of these systems allowed user to intake “content”, enter the names of people or things, and display the outputs so that the higher-value facts were presented in a useful way; for example, a chart or a relationship graph.
The US government works to learn about new and potentially useful software and systems. Not surprisingly, a government agency showed interest in Palantir’s software when the entrepreneurs involved in the company started describing the Palantir features and functions. Appreciate that in its early years almost two decades ago, the presentations and demonstrations captured what I call “to be” systems; that is, at some point in the future, Palantir’s system and software would be everything that Analyst Notebook, Detica, and the other intelware vendors could offer. The pitch is compelling.
Palantir, now almost two decades old, is a publicly traded company, and it is working overtime to move beyond sales to governments in the US and elsewhere. One of the characteristics of selling intelware to non-governmental organizations is that the capabilities of the system and its use by government clients are often disconcerting to a financial institution, a big hospital chain, or consulting firm focused on real estate.
Furthermore, intelware systems require data. Some data can be easily imported into a system like Palantir’s; for example, plain ASCII text and Excel spreadsheets. Other data are in a format which must be transformed so that Palantir can import the information. Other data present challenges like converting an image with a date and time stamp into an indexed content object. That indexing, to be helpful and to reduce the likelihood of errors, has to be accurate. Some non-text data must be enriched. French content processing experts refer to this enrichment as “fertilization.”
The write up “Palantir: Complete Disaster” includes this statement:
We think there are three possible courses of action in the disaster that has been Palantir, all of which are correct.
Here are the three “courses of action”:
- Don’t buy shares in Palantir.
- Buy shares, maybe short the stock.
- Buy shares and ride out the downturn.
Each of these options ignore two issues. The first is why Palantir is not closing deals and showing a profit. The second is why an intelware company is not able to amp up its sales to government agencies in the US, Western Europe, and selected government agencies elsewhere.
My view is that Palantir is a tough sell for these reasons:
- To land a deal, the prospect has to know what the payoff from using the Gotham / Foundry system is. “Intelligence” is a hot concept, but it is a tough sell unless there is a “champion” inside the prospect’s organization to grease the skids.
- Competitors offer comparable products for as little as $5,000 per month and some of these competitors bundle third party data which can be fused with the licensee’s data with minimal fiddling with filters and file conversions.
- Newer systems are easier to use, include automated workflows which speed analysts, investigators, and and researchers work.
The slow sales of Palantir follow the same type of curve that sales of Autonomy, Fast Search & Software, and many other “information” or “intelligence” focused products have. The initial sales are from government agencies which want better mouse traps. When the intelware does not deliver markedly significant payoffs, the licensees keep looking for better, faster, and cheaper options.
Will Palantir be able to generate a profit and deliver organic growth?
If the trajectory of precursor companies is the path Palantir is on, the answer is, “No.”
Stephen E Arnold, May 23, 2022
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