Deloitte on Subscriptions: Trust These Numbers?
April 19, 2021
Deloitte is an interesting outfit. The company compiled an interesting track record with its analyses of Autonomy plc’s finances. Nevertheless, the accounting-consulting firm has confidence in its mathematical expertise. A recent example appears in “Deloitte: Consumers Load Up on Subscriptions But Are Frustrated with Fragmentation.” The information generated seems to be part “okay, that is obvious” and part public relations. (Note: You may have to pay to view the source document.)
I noted these findings about people absorbing digital information, particularly video, the state of the art in kick back data access:
- 52 percent of those watching free ad supported video find it difficult to access content across so many services.
- 49 percent are frustrated when a service doesn’t make good recommendations
- 66k percent frustrated when content they want to watch is removed from a service.
- 67 percent of those in the sample don’t trust the news they see on various services
The common theme in these data are frustration and the inability to get search to deliver useful results.
I wonder if those embroiled in the Autonomy dust up have similar perceptions of Deloitte itself.
Stephen E Arnold,
Microsoft, SolarWinds, 1000 Malevolent Engineers, and Too Big to Fail?
April 19, 2021
“SolarWinds Hacking Campaign Puts Microsoft in Hot Seat” is an interesting “real news” story. The write up states that the breach was a two stage operation. The first stage was using SolarWinds to distribute malware. The second stage was to use that malware as a chin up bar. Bad actors’ grabbed the bar and did 20 or more pull ups. The result was marketing talk and a mini-meme about 1,000 engineers concentrating their expertise on penetrating the Microsoft datasphere.
The article quoted a cyber security expert as describing Microsoft’s systems and methods as have “systematic weaknesses.” For a company whose software is a “monoculture” with an 85 percent market share, the phrase “systematic weaknesses” is not reassuring. Not only can Microsoft release updates which kill some users’ ability to print, Microsoft can release security systems which don’t secure the software.
The article include this statement:
And remember, many security professionals note, Microsoft was itself compromised by the SolarWinds intruders, who got access to some of its source code — its crown jewels. Microsoft’s full suite of security products — and some of the industry’s most skilled cyber-defense practitioners — had failed to detect the ghost in the network. It was alerted to its own breach by FireEye, the cybersecurity firm that first detected the hacking campaign in mid-December.
I noted that the write up does not point out that none of the cyber security firms’ breach detection solutions noted the SolarWinds’ misstep. That seems important to me, but obviously not to the “real” cyber security professionals.
The US government does not want Microsoft to fail. “NSA and FBI Move to Help Microsoft with Its Exchange Server Vulnerabilities” reports:
It is not just the NSA finding and telling Microsoft about problems with Exchange. The FBI is also concerned with the number of unpatched Exchange servers. In a rare move, the FBI sought and was granted a warrant to patch any unfixed exchange servers it found remotely.
If a Windows update creates a problem for you, perhaps a helpful professional affiliated with a government agency will assist in resolving your problem?
Stephen E Arnold, April 19, 2021
Preserving History? Twitter Bans Archived Trump Tweets
April 19, 2021
The National Archives of the United States archives social media accounts of politicians. Former President Donald Trump’s Twitter account is among them. One of the benefits of archived Twitter accounts is that users can read and interact with old tweets. Twitter, however, banned Trump in early 2021 because he was deemed a threat to public safety. Politico explains the trouble the National Archives and Records Administration currently has getting Trump’s old tweets back online, “National Archives Can’t Resurrect Trump’s Tweets, Twitter Says.”
Other former Trump administration officials have their old tweets active on Twitter. Many National Archives staff view Twitter’s refusal to reactivate the tweets as censorship. Trump’s controversial tweets are part of a growing battle between Washington and tech giants, where the latter censors conservatives. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas lamented that the tech companies had so much control over communication.
Twitter is working with the National Archives on preserving Trump’s tweets. Twitter refuses to host any of Trump’s tweets, stating they glorified violence. The tweets will be available on the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library web site.
“Nevertheless, the process of preserving @realDonaldTrump’s tweets remains underway, NARA’s [James] Pritchett said, and since the account is banned from Twitter, federal archivists are ‘working to make the exported content available … as a download’ on the Trump Presidential Library website.
‘Twitter is solely responsible for the decision of what content is available on their platform,’ Pritchett said.’“NARA works closely with Twitter and other social media platforms to maintain archived social accounts from each presidential administration, but ultimately the platform owners can decline to host these accounts. NARA preserves platform independent copies of social media records and is working to make that content available to the public.’”
Is it really censorship if Trump’s tweets are publicly available just not through their first medium? Conservative politicians do have a valid argument. Big tech does control and influence communication, but does that give them the right to censor opinions? Future data archeologists may wonder about the gap.
Whitney Grace, April 19, 2021
Whom Do You Trust? Humans or Humans Who Fiddle Algorithms?
April 19, 2021
I find it fascinating that people trust “computers” programmed by human more than the humans employing programmers. “People Trust Computers More Than Humans: Study” reports:
Despite increasing concern over the intrusion of algorithms in daily life, a new research shows that people are more likely to rely on algorithms than humans, especially if a task becomes too challenging.
One useful possibility for these data, assuming they are accurate, is that the future belongs to the individuals who understand algorithms and have access to systems in which the numerical recipes and procedures are embedded.
So what? A bright future for the one percent in a position to influence when, where, when, and how with regard to smart software. Searching Google and using an automated teller machine do not translate to deep understanding of software systems and methods.
Stephen E Arnold, April 19, 2021
Thomson Reuters: A Phase Change to Monitor
April 16, 2021
You may not be familiar with a beaver sejant erect proper blowing upon a hunting horn in silver with a big deer in the mix. You may not recall the origins of Thomson Reuters (TR) as a seller of radios in Ontario, Canada. You may not remember the shift from newspapers to professional publishing. That’s not a surprise. Most people do not know the names of the hundreds of specialty titles generated by the “slicing and dicing” of Thomson Reuters’ professional content. Some may be aware that Thomson Reuters is undergoing another transformation or a return to its roots.
“Reuters Website Goes Behind Paywall in New Strategy” reports a shift this way:
The newly revamped Reuters.com is hoping to attract professional audiences prepared to pay $34.99 per month for a deeper level of coverage and data on industry verticals that include legal, sustainable business, healthcare and autos.
In the online business, there are numerous ways to generate money. TikTok videos does not seem to be a good fit for a professional publisher at least yet. TR has a “must have” history; that is, the company produces information that professionals have to buy to remain in business or obtain the data needed to stay in business. Examples include legal information and dozens of other electronic properties. You can get a reasonable list at this location. There are about 1,500 products.
Selling to law firms and accounting firms has become tricky. There are lots of lawyers and accountants, but there are not too many who can afford the “must have” online products and services. Selling to libraries has also become difficult. There are low ball vendors who offer good enough content, but the big challenge is thumbtypers. These rascals perceive the Google as the universal library, and it appears to be free to use. Pesky government agencies make some content available which erodes the lawyers’ and accountants’ appetite for spending money for online, loose-leaf services, and books. A lawyer or accountant can use a stock shot of bookcases and convey to a client a deep library of knowledge whilst working from a space in the kitchen.
Newspapers don’t work, and TR is unlikely to give Substack a whirl. TR may acquire Substack, but that’s a different approach. YouTube could be a source of revenue, but certain information like explanations of indifference curves almost demand a traditional classroom and old fashioned study groups in student unions or coffee shops.
The wizards with spreadsheet fever assume that a “professional” business person will have to subscribe to the TR product, the socially sensitive New York Times, the estimable Murdoched Wall Street Journal, the magazine called a newspaper with the fetching title “Economist,” and the orange Financial Times. Toss in the HBR and maybe a specialized service providing milspecs, and the money will just roll in. What if it doesn’t? Hey, change the assumptions. “Exercise” the model. Works like a champ.
How many business professionals will pay for these digital subscriptions? How many will sign up for the TR online service? How much will the “professional” business person pay each month to stay informed?
I don’t have a crystal ball, but the financial reports of TR and its fellow travelers will be fascinating to review. If university MBA programs survive, perhaps there will be a case study of the consequences of the digital revolution upon the great pivoters. The proof is in the revenue assuming the executives’ incentive plans are well crafted.
TR’s competitors are probably going to do some stag hunting in order to survive. They too have to make a buck.
Stephen E Arnold, April 16, 2021
Google and the Annoying Australian Government
April 16, 2021
I noted “Australian Judge Rules Google Misled Android Users on Data.” The write up reports:
Google broke Australian law by misleading users about personal location data collected through Android mobile devices…
In the big world of the Google does this decision matter?
Chair of the Australian Competition Commission finds the decision important for Australia. The news story states:
This is an important victory for consumers, especially anyone concerned about their privacy online, as the court’s decision sends a strong message to Google and others that big businesses must not mislead their customers. We are extremely pleased with the outcome in this world-first case.
Like Facebook, Google finds that Australia is having difficulties accepting the systems and methods of the digital nation states. One risk to the GOOG may be that other mere countries emulate the ways of the Aussies. Imagine the chaos if the EC downs three or four Foster’s and screams, “Let’s put Googzilla on the barbie.”
Even Google’s legions of attorneys might balk at a trip to Brussels or Strasbourg as the Australian emulation attracts attention.
Stephen E Arnold, April 16, 2021
Amazon Withholds Its E-Books from Public Libraries: Who Remembers Andrew Carnegie?
April 16, 2021
This was not what the Internet was supposed to bring—quite the opposite. We learn of a growing problem from The Washington Post in their article, “Want to Borrow That E-Book from the Library? Sorry, Amazon Won’t Let You.” Tech giant Amazon has never forgotten it began with books and has now grown into a powerful publisher as well as book vendor. However, the company’s obsession with its bottom line is posing a real problem for society—it is refusing to sell its digital titles to public libraries. Reporter Geoffrey A. Fowler writes:
“[Amazon] won’t sell downloadable versions of its more than 10,000 e-books or tens of thousands of audiobooks to libraries. That’s right, for a decade, the company that killed bookstores has been starving the reading institution that cares for kids, the needy and the curious. And that’s turned into a mission-critical problem during a pandemic that cut off physical access to libraries and left a lot of people unable to afford books on their own. Many Americans now recognize that a few tech companies increasingly dominate our lives. But it’s sometimes hard to put your finger on exactly why that’s a problem. The case of the vanishing e-books shows how tech monopolies hurt us not just as consumers, but as citizens.”
For decades lawmakers have evaluated the harm monopolies cause by asking one simple question—are prices going up? In the case of tech firms like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple, their large-scale operations often mean the answer is no. But that metric misses a lot of factors. Fowler notes:
“But we’re not just price-sensitive consumers — we’re also citizens. We need products that are made fairly, serve our needs and are equitably distributed. Groundbreaking government antitrust lawsuits filed in late 2020 argue Google’s monopoly hurts us because it’s blocking competitors and prioritizing its own inferior services. In my own investigation, I found Google search results are getting worse as it puts its own business ahead of our interests. Libraries losing e-books matters because they serve us as citizens.”
Yes, libraries are critical to maintaining an informed public even in the digital age. As with physical books, most publishers happily sell libraries e-book versions of their works. In fact, libraries typically pay more for each publication than an end consumer would. That apparently is not enough for Amazon. Why spare even one potential sale for the greater good?
The American Library Association testified to Congress on the matter, calling digital sales bans “the worst obstacle for libraries.” Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island have proposed bills that would force Amazon and other publishers to sell their e-books on reasonable terms. We will see whether any of these or similar bills make it into law. Meanwhile, authors who want to see their books on libraries’ virtual shelves should turn to other publishers.
Cynthia Murrell, April 16, 2021
Google Ad Auctions: An Interesting Phrase
April 16, 2021
I am no legal eagle. I don’t do online advertising. I don’t care too much about the antics of art history majors laboring in the vineyards of pay to play.
I did read “When Google’s Fancy Lawyers Screw Up and Jeopardize Sheryl Sandberg, at $1500/Hour.”
Here’s the passage I found suggestive:
… now we know a few important new details about the Texas adtech case. This case includes an allegation that Google’s large online advertising marketplace – think stock market but instead of stocks they trade ad slots – is riddled with secret rigged auctions.
And what, pray tell, was the phrase which snagged my attention? Here she be:
secret rigged auctions
Why is this interesting?
- The phrase resonates with me because “secrecy” and algorithmic, objective methods are trustworthy. But then there’s the word “rigged.” Yikes!
- The assertion backed by legal documents with faulty redaction makes clear that getting useful information is a pretty complicated process. Who did what, when, and why?
- Online advertising is big money for some outfits. Could the information widen cracks in the digital foundation?
Interesting.
Stephen E Arnold, April 16, 2021
Exposing Big Data: A Movie Person Explains Fancy Math
April 16, 2021
I am not “into” movies. Some people are. I knew a couple of Hollywood types, but I was dumbfounded by their thought processes. One of these professionals dreamed of crafting a motion picture about riding a boat powered by the wind. I think I understand because I skimmed one novel by Herman Melville, who grew up with servants in the house. Yep, in touch with the real world of fish and storms at sea.
However, perhaps an exception is necessary. A movie type offered some interesting ideas in the BBC “real” news story “Documentary Filmmaker Adam Curtis on the Myth of Big Data’s Predictive Power: It’s a Modern Ghost Story.” Note: This article is behind a paywall designed to compensate content innovators for their highly creative work. You have been warned.
Here are several statements I circled in bright True Blue marker ink:
- “The best metaphor for it is that Amazon slogan, which is: ‘If you like that, then you’ll like this,'” [Adam] Curtis [the documentary film maker]
- [Adam Curtis] pointed to the US National Security Agency’s failure to intercept a single terrorist attack, despite monitoring the communications of millions of Americans for the better part of two decades.
- [Big data and online advertising] a bit like sending someone with a flyer advertising pizzas to
the lobby of a pizza restaurant,” said Curtis. “You give each person one of those flyers as they come into the restaurant and they walk out with a pizza. “It looks like it’s one of your flyers that’s done it. But it wasn’t – it’s a pizza restaurant.”
Maybe I should pay more attention to the filmic mind. These observations strike me as accurate.
Predictive analytics, fancy math, and smart software? Ghosts.
But what if ghosts are real?
Stephen E Arnold, April 16, 2021
The Google Is Busy: Use the Maps to Buy from Advertisers Already
April 15, 2021
Talk about ungrateful. Australia is annoying a US tech giant with unwarranted criticisms. Just because a highway has a petrol station every 500 or 600 miles, what difference does it make if the data on a free map are incorrect. That electric vehicle should have solar panels. Carbon fuel machines need to have auxiliary gas tank.
“Google Maps Under Fire for Incorrect Information, Outdated Imagery” is grousing and to the really busy Google. The write up asserts:
The errors on Google Maps go as far as claiming that the town of Eromanga is some 85 kilometers from its actual location, so drivers who may use the navigation to drive to this city could end up in a completely different place.
Like the Googzilla has time to figure out where a dirt road goes in Eromanga? Ho ho ho. Buy an ad. The Google may add Eromanga to its customer database. Well, maybe.
The write up continues:
Furthermore, according to local reports, the local Street View imagery is more than a decade old…
I have concluded that the article in auto Evolution has been assembled by individuals who are not Googley. The fix is directly from a Crocodile Dundee film; to wit:
As a result, the authorities recommend people stick with the traditional way of navigation and use the street signs to find a specific location. “If you see a signpost saying a town is ‘this way’ and Google Maps is telling you something different, don’t trust Google Maps,” Quilpie Shire Council Mayor Stuart Mackenzie said.
Australia. Consistently annoying. Eromanga, really? Just buy some ads. The Google cares about ads even if these messages are for enterprises in where was it? Oh, right, Eromanga.
Stephen E Arnold, April 15, 2021
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