Facebook: Eliciting Glee from Those Who Should Love It
February 6, 2022
I read – and this is the “real” title – “The End of the Metaverse Hopefully. Read to the End for a Tremendous Meditation on February. Facebook Made Its Own World and Now It’s Stuck in It.” The write up appeared in an online publication called Garbage Day.
Here’s the conclusion which I found interesting for several reasons:
Basically, Facebook and Instagram is [sic] Squid Game, the algorithm is the big piggy bank, and the last three traumatized contestants in tuxedos armed with knives are an out-of-work magician, an antivax chiropractor, and a QAnon mom from Tuscon who runs a drop-shipping pyramid scheme. Which, of course, is not a platform that users will want to use. But it’s all Facebook has to fall back on now that its attempts to “build the metaverse” have been exposed as an absolutely ridiculous bluster. And it seems like that’s what they’re actually going to do. Zuckerberg said yesterday that that they would be focusing — or pivoting — to video again. It’s all they can do. They’ll pivot to video, then they’ll pivot to reactions, then they’ll pivot to groups, then they’ll pivot to news, then they’ll pivot back to video, all the while, shrinking and becoming less and less relevant until one day we won’t even notice they’re gone.
The Zuckbook faces an uphill climb. However, large companies like an aircraft carrier require some time to stop. With an admiral screaming at the captain, the inputs contribute nothing to the physics of a big, often technologically outdated, vessel chock full of explosives, fuel, and former Googlers.
I agree that Facebook faces headwinds. What’s important to keep in mind is that the Big Zuck has his hands on the controls. Like a cornered ferret, an animal control officer must appreciate what the clever little creature can do.
Let me offer a few examples:
- Act on rumors of accepting political advertising which is tailor made for the Facebook throw-fuel-on-the-fire algorithms of engagement
- Enter into for-free agreements with organizations engaged in intelligence activities for a wide range of governments. Here’s a hypothetical question: “How much would Mr. Putin’s colleagues pay for unfettered access to near-real time user activity in a geographic region?” If not Mr. Putin, what about an person who is an alleged oligarch?”
- Create differential advertising rates and charge more for ads which come with a nifty control panel designed to allow on-the-fly tuning?
- What are the subscription revenue opportunities of a service infused with artificial intelligence informed for grandmothers?
I recognize the brilliance of the Big Zuck who allegedly created the service in a dorm room. I think his business acumen is worthy of a case study if universities have business schools which focus on real world behaviors. I admire the Big Zuck’s desire to buy Hawaii.
However, ignoring the Zuckbook and the Big Zuck is not a good idea. Assuming that the aircraft carrier will crash into a reef and sink is not a good idea. Suggesting that the doomsday clock is accelerating is not a good idea.
What is a good idea? Think about a cornered ferret.
Stephen E Arnold, February 6, 2022
Misunderstanding a Zuck Move
February 4, 2022
I read some posts — for instance, “Facebook Just Had Its Most Disappointing Quarter Ever. Mark Zuckerberg’s Response Is the 1 Thing No Leader Should Ever Do” — suggesting that Mark Zuckerberg is at fault for his company’s contrarian financial performance. The Zucker move is a standard operating procedure in a high school science club. When caught with evidence of misbehavior, in my high school science club in 1958, we blamed people in the band. We knew that blaming a mere athlete would result in a difficult situation in the boys’ locker room.
Thus it is obvious that the declining growth, the rise of the Chinese surveillance video machine, and the unfriended Tim Apple are responsible for which might be termed a zuck up. If this reminds you of a phrase used to characterize other snarls like the IRS pickle, you are not thinking the way I am. A “zuck up” is a management action which enables the world to join together. Think of the disparate groups who can find fellow travelers; for example, insecure teens who need mature guidance.
I found this comment out of step with the brilliance of the lean in behavior of Mr. Zuckerberg:
Ultimately, you don’t become more relevant by pointing to your competitors and blaming them for your performance. That’s the one thing no company–or leader–should ever do.
My reasoning is that Mr. Zuckerberg is a manipulator, a helmsman, if you will. Via programmatic methods, he achieved a remarkable blend of human pliability and cash extraction. He achieved success by clever disintermediation of some of his allegedly essential aides de camp. He achieved success by acquiring competitors and hooking these third party mechanisms into the Facebook engine room. He dominated because he understood the hot buttons of Wall Street.
I expect the Zuck, like the mythical phoenix (not the wonderful city in Arizona) to rise from the ashes of what others perceive as a failure. What the Zuck will do is use the brilliant techniques of the adolescent wizards in a high school science club to show “them” who is really smart.
Not a zuck up.
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2022
Google: Sunset for So So Programmers?
February 4, 2022
I read “DeepMind Says Its New AI Coding Engine Is As Good as an Average Human Programmer.” Okay, what’s “average”? What’s the baseline and the methods of measurement? How big was the sample? Is the test replicable by a third party?
Oh, right. These are questions backed by “real” data in the “real news” write up. I suppose I am to suspend disbelief and do the Kubla Khan thing in a Kode Xanadu.
The write up reports as “real” news this:
DeepMind has created an AI system named AlphaCode that it says “writes computer programs at a competitive level.” The Alphabet subsidiary tested its system against coding challenges used in human competitions and found that its program achieved an “estimated rank” placing it within the top 54 percent of human coders. The result is a significant step forward for autonomous coding, says DeepMind, though AlphaCode’s skills are not necessarily representative of the sort of programming tasks faced by the average coder.
Yep, Statistics 101 and marketing speak. I love autonomous coding. Colorful.
Several observations:
- Why do low code or no code when one can get out front with the implied outcome: No humans needed for certain coding tasks. Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft will be eager to explain that their systems are better.
- Google’s desire to create a “quantum supremacy” claim reveals an insecurity at the core of the company. If the technology were the cat’s pajamas, why is the firm unable to generate substantive revenue from advertising?
- Why have Google’s most advanced technologies generated gushers of red ink, not marketing-dominating solutions which dwarf the firm’s advertising business?
From my vantage point Google is like the wealthy individual who made a fortune in B and lower motion pictures. This individual wanted to get into technology in order to go to a party and answer this question, “What business are you in?” This person, whom I knew prior to his demise, told me, “I don’t like saying dirty movies and girlie bars. I want to be in the technology business.”
Net net: Google wants to be perceived as the big dog in really advanced technology. Too bad. Just say, “We sell ads and we were inspired by the Yahoo, GoTo, Overture system. Of course, Yahoo had to fly eagles over the Googleplex, but, hey, we’re proud of our one money making system. But we also do no-human coding and are the quantum supremacists.“
I understand I think.
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2022
Google Observations: A Hoot and a Maybe Bit Frightening If Statements Are Accurate
February 4, 2022
I read an item on Hacker News which “tells” about an issue/observation. The comment points out that certain queries generate links on a search result page which point to questionable content. Interesting, but news? Not in Harrods Creek, the technology centroid of the world.
What is quite fascinating in the short article? The comments. Yep, the comments. There are quite a few gems scattered in the trollite outcrops.
Here are a few examples with the “names” of the entity generating the output. Remember. I am just sharing. These are not my observations, comments, or ideas. In fact, we think the current version of the Google is a heck of a lot better than Version 2.0 which I wrote a monograph about many years ago.
- “nobody gets promoted in Google for doing their job well. Only for inventing a new job to do.” – reaperducer
- “It was my mistake. I trusted Google.” — Silisili
- “I work for Google Search. We are looking into this.” – SullilvanDanny
- “My wife recently received, in her inbox, a spoofed email from her own email address on Gmail.” – andrewmcwatters
- “There is no end to The Greed.” – JayTaylor
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2022
Germany: Taps the Silicon Valley PEZ Dispenser
February 4, 2022
I spotted a German legal report which appeared a few days ago. You can find the German language document at this link. The thrust of the reported legal decision is that the use of Google Fonts violates the German view of a GDPR General Data Protection Regulation. The ruling means that Google’s tracking the IP address of a Google Font user violates user privacy. Google, according to the report, does not give the font user a way to turn off the tracking. The IP address of the defendant was transmitted to a Google server in the US. So what? Hitting the PEZ dispenser for a small amount of money is no big deal. Getting a long line of those hungry for PEZ output can be an issue, and the craze could spread to other EU countries PEZ fans. Worth watching even if one does not want a Google output of a few hundred dollars.
Stephen E Arnold, February 4, 2022
Google and Tracking Magic
February 4, 2022
Tracking user locations is baked in to Google’s apps, and that is unlikely to change as long as tracking data (“anonymized,” we are repeatedly assured) remains a valuable source of revenue. CNet considers, “Can You Really Stop Google from Tracking You? Here’s What We Know.” The short answer—you can try. Reporter Kelsey Fogarty writes:
“If you use Google’s apps on your iPhone or Android phone, it’s a good possibility you’re being tracked. And turning off your location history in your Google account doesn’t mean you’re in the clear. Disabling that setting may seem like a one-and-done solution, but some Google apps are still storing your location data. Simply opening the Google Maps app or using Google search on any platform logs your approximate location with a time stamp. In the latest lawsuits against the giant search engine company, Google has been sued by several states due to its use of location data. They allege Google makes it ‘nearly impossible’ for people to prevent their location from being tracked. After a 2018 investigation by the Associated Press, Google added features to make it easier to control what location and other data is saved, and what is deleted with features like Your Data in Maps and Search, which give you quick access to your location controls. However, DC Attorney General Karl Racine said, ‘Google falsely led consumers to believe that changing their account and device settings would allow customers to protect their privacy and control what personal data the company could access.’ Google has since defended itself.”
Of course it has. The company points to several measures one can take to “turn off” tracking, insisting control is in the hands of users. However, the write-up hints, there is no guarantee they will actually work. See the article for these methods—they may at least improve one’s odds. Or not. Google does promise one thing: users who turn off tracking will receive a less personalized experience, meaning less relevant ads and less helpful local search. Who needs privacy when one must have the name and number of the closest tapas joint.
Cynthia Murrell, February 4, 2022
Has the Redmond Giant Marginalized Facezuck and Googzilla
February 3, 2022
I read an interview which seems to be part of the Financial Times (paywalled, of course) and Ars Technica (not paywalled). The article is “Satya Nadella: Microsoft has “Permission to Build the Next Internet.”
I am not sure about who did what to get the interview with the softest Microsoftie, but I think I spotted which colloquially might be termed a “dis”:
To me, just being great at game building gives us the permission to build this next platform, which is essentially the next Internet: the embodied presence.
Will Facezuck and Googzilla interpret the message as, “Microsoft will build the digital world from this day.” Is the permission granted by someone of global importance, or is the permission assumed like the security of Azure and Exchange Server. Maybe the permission is generated by Microsoft’s confidence resulting from regulators’ attention attracted to other bright, sparkling companies?
I like the permission and the prediction that the next Internet is engineered for “embodied presence.” How’s that work out in the real world; for example, homeless people in Seattle, the posturing in Washington, DC, and the genuine concern in many government agencies around the world that Microsoft’s systems and software are conduits for bad actors.
Yep, embodied. Permission. Prediction.
Stephen E Arnold, February 3, 2022
Google: Ethical Ethics and Managing Management
February 3, 2022
I read “Two More AI Ethics Researchers Follow Timnit Gebru Out of Google.” The write up includes this statement:
“In a word, tech has a whiteness problem. Google is not just a tech organization. Google is a white tech organization,” Hanna writes. “More specifically, tech organizations are committed to defending whiteness through the ‘interrelated practices, processes, actions and meanings,’ the techniques of reproducing the organization. In this case, that means defending their policies of recruitment, hierarchization, and monetization.”
I also noted this passage:
Hanna and Baker told Bloomberg they also believe Google has become less willing to listen to employees in recent years. They specifically pointed to the company’s pursuit of potential contracts from the Pentagon over the past and the very public objections of its workers.
Google reported record financial results. The company faces headwinds outside of hefty ad revenue generation. The question is, “Will the firm continue to thrive despite its apparent approach to handling certain topics (ethical artificial intelligence), staff composition (diverse), and political (alleged monopolistic behavior)?
My hunch is that just as Facebook’s customer acquisition has slowed, Google faces similar erosion; for example, technical debt costs, increased customer acquisition cost, and what I call “trust” cost. Will the numbers offset the intangibles of managing and messaging?
Will Dr. Gebru’s new venture identify the risks of Google’s approach to content management and shaping? Worth watching the antics of the Google in crowd it is.
Stephen E Arnold, February 3, 2022
Cloud Computing: Is There a Free Lunch Paid for by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft?
February 3, 2022
What have those cloud computing giants done for organizations lately? Here are some thought starters:
- Argued that it is better, faster, and cheaper to outsource anything involving computing to the fluffy clouds?
- Pushed for low code and no code solutions so that anyone can create applications and not get involved with expensive, unreliable, and uncooperative technical employees who don’t understand what an MBA or art history major needs now?
- Offered free or low cost entry fees which bedazzle the customer who is unable to see the telecommunications-style pricing methods like “cross a threshold and pay twice the cost stated on Schedule C, subparagraph 4”?
- A false narrative about ease of use, the reliability of pre-packaged data sets, and off-the-shelf components anyone can configure while waiting for a latte at a Starbuck’s in Normal, Illinois?
Enough questions. Read “More Than a Third of Firms Hit by Unexpected Cloud Costs.” Here’s a sentence from the write up which I found interesting:
Lack of transparency among providers is consistently cited as a problem.
Is this a nice way of saying, “These cloud people are doing the Theranos thing?”
Do you answer yes or no? Companies have difficulty hiring, retaining, and managing technology people. Costs for technology are often uncontrollable by traditional mechanisms crafted in less-illuminated times. Sales are easy because some organizations are believing what the cloud vendors say.
I am in the yes camp.
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2022
NSO Group: Media Pile On
February 3, 2022
A helpful person posted a link to a July 2021 story about NSO Group this weekend (January 29 – 30, 2022. The New York Times (that bustling digitally aware Gray Lady) published a New York Times Magazine story about NSO Group. But the killer item of PR appeared in Sputnik International (a favorite of some in Moscow) “India Bought Pegasus Spyware from Israel in an Alleged Deal Concerning Palestinians, Claims NYT.” I find this interesting because:
- The NSO Group continues to be a PR magnet. At this point, I am not sure the old adage “any publicity is good publicity.”
- Russian “real journalists” have wired together some click baity words: India, Israel, Palestinians, and the New York Times
- The intelware sector has a stiff upper lip, but the NSO Group – whether a viable business or not – has destabilized an entire industry sector.
Net net: A big problem which seems to be growing.
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2022
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