Web Search Data: Maybe Right, Maybe Wrong but the Trend–Spot On
June 10, 2008
I just received in my trusty RSS feed the news that Hitwise has released its Web search market share data for May 2008. You should take a look at the data table here. I don’t think for a Kentucky minute that these numbers are dead accurate. I do think the data, generated with various mathematical voodoo and data from some cooperative folks, show trends.
Here’s what I mean. Google’s market share of Web searches in the sampled area which means the United States has risen over the last three years. Cross referencing my data, Google’s share of Web search has risen for a decade, and that’s not news. In May 2008, Google, says Hitwise number crunchers, accounted for 68 percent of Web search traffic.
Nope. The big insights from my point view are these:
- Microsoft’s market share has declined from 7.6 percent in May 2007 to 5.9 percent in May 2008. Limping aardvark Ask.com tallied a May 2008 share of 4.2 percent.
- Yahoo, despite the search announcement fusillades, lost share, dropping below 21 percent of Web search traffic in May 2007 to 19 percent in May 2008.
What are the trends? I’m not sure you will agree with my analysis, but this is a Web log, and it’s free.
First, Google keeps on increasing its share. The line goes up. I’m not even interested in whether Hitwise’s data are accurate. Over the time line I track, Google has yet to meet a competitor who can hobble Googzilla. I’m not sure Google is that great a search engine. What I do know is that the competitors’ systems are not able to convince users that their systems are better.
Second, Microsoft has been unable to crack the code for Web search. Maybe financial incentives and advertising will work. I think there’s more to search than $650 million data centers running Windows Servers with peer-to-peer technologies moving data from one behemoth to another. The trend line is nosing down–closing in on Ask.com territory.
Third, Yahoo’s innovation engine isn’t firing on all cylinders. Social this, open that–the search is still leaving users cold. Now it’s drift down appears to be accelerating. I recall Yahoo’s chief technical wizard telling me in 2007, “We have some tricks that Google doesn’t have.” Maybe in their dreams. The reality, if the Hitwise data are accurate, is that Yahoo is slipping. In my files, I have a reference to Yahoo’s share of the search market in 2001 as 50 percent. Looks like a dip to me.
Agree? Disagree? Use the comments section to let me know if you have data that refute the start fact that the GOOG is running free, without meaningful competition, and frolicking in growth as Microsoft and Yahoo struggle to reverse their losses.
Stephen Arnold, June 10, 2008
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