Google: ZDNet and Two Views of Usage Data
November 29, 2008
This item is not really about Google. I think I found it interesting that ZDNet UK wrote a story here with the headline “Yahoo, Microsoft Outperform US Search Growth” and ZDNet US wrote a story here with this headline “Microsoft Still Fighting a Losing Battle against Google”. I detected a certain joy in the UK story. The GOOG is not growing so quickly. The fact that hapless AOL is giving up share in a lousy economic climate to other Web search outfits is not too surprising. The US ZDNet analyst, Garett Rogers, reproduces a chart and suggests that Google is still growing, just not as quickly. I think data from outfits like Comscore and others are only somewhat helpful. Based on the resources to which I have access, I peg Google’s share of the Web search market in the 75 percent range with its share in certain countries in Europe nosing into the 90 percent range. The big point for me is that most people, including trained analysts, have a reluctance to accept three facts:
- Google’s share of the search market is dominant and it is unlikely that short of the Google triumvirate having a shoot out in the Google cafeteria, not much is going to change in the foreseeable future
- Microsoft and Yahoo are not making significant headway because users are not running queries on these systems. The problem is not Google; the problem is the user.
- The data from consultants who make a horse race out of sampled data output stuff that does not make the conclusion easy to understand.
In Web search, the GOOG is number one, and unless Yahoo and Microsoft figure out how to leapfrog Googzilla, the gap is likely to remain quite wide. Clicks mean money. Paying money for traffic won’t do the job. Yahoo, bless its purple heart, has one heck of a mess to sort out. Selling the Kelkoo search system that worked while keeping one that doesn’t work very well is one sign that the company is drifting. Yahoo lost money on the deal and kept the less effective system.
Stephen Arnold, November 29,, 2008
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