Web Search Scoreboard
March 14, 2009
I got a lot of grief at a conference last year when I said, “Google has won the search game.” The conference organizer was annoyed because sponsors don’t want to hear that their money was wasted. Too bad. The stats about market share have understated Google’s dominance of Web search. I have seen data that pegs Google’s share at 80 percent and higher as long as 18 months ago. Believe me. The source of the data was solid and based on counts, not samples. Well, now the samples are reporting that the GOOG’s market share is in the 60 to 70 percent range. Imagine my surprise when I read ” Microsoft U.S. Search Share Hits 12-Month Low” here. The angle is not that Google has won. ComputerWorld’s approach was that Microsoft has not just lost share but Microsoft is falling further behind despite its effort to close the gap. The ComputerWorld story supports my assertion that Google has won. Game over. Search is a digital service that is a natural monopoly. What’s amazing is that Microsoft thinks it can gain traction by buying or integrating Yahoo’s search service. In my opinion, Google will continue to operate like a giant magnet, pulling traffic to itself. A leapfrog play is needed, not a me too play.
Stephen Arnold, March 14, 2009
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