Social Media in 2011: Some Wild and Crazy Prognostications
January 1, 2011
Let me be upfront. I am not a social media type of goose. I know that most affluent people under the age of 35 comprise an important social media demographic. I know that most of the outfits that pay me money to dog work don not use social media in some obvious places; namely, customer support or whatever buzzword a 25 year old marketing whiz crafts between sips of a Starbuck’s latte. (More information about organizations limited use of social media for customer feedback is here.)
The article “10 Ways Social Media Will Change in 2011” is quite interesting. I find the 10 reasons a good collection of prognostications. (I do like that word from a Greek root that means foreknowing.) I want to comment on one of the predictions. I am pretty much okay with the other nine, but I have reservations about Number 6, ROI Will Be Redefined.
Image source: http://www.cantrip.org/stupidity.html
Frankly, baloney. The economy is in a tough financial weather system. Many search and content processing companies are struggling to keep their lights on. What available cash these outfits have is often spent running from funding source to funding source looking for an infusion of capital. There’s a lot of cash available for investment, but there are not many search vendors able to match the type of funding that Aster Data at $38 million and Palantir at $90 million have been able to snag in 2010.
The reason. Old fashioned ROI. One does not redefine ROI because people are communicating in old and somewhat refreshing new ways. ROI is, as I recall from my brain numbing days at a blue chip consulting firm, the ratio of income produced by an asset divided by its investment cost.
That’s an algorithm, a numerical recipe. One can invent a new recipe, but the old recipe is just a mathematical sequence, and it is not likely to go away next year or anytime in the next couple of years. I have no doubt that those who live by clinging to the latest online trend will manipulate the words “return on investment” and the acronym “ROI” into some wild and crazy, hip notion.
But social media is not going to get Microsoft or the MBA professors to toss out the ratio that every student, no matter how addled, to memorize. Social media delivers benefits and some of these benefits can be quantified. But change ROI? Baloney.
Stephen E Arnold, January 1, 2011
Freebie just like the comments about social media changing what’s baked into an Excel formula.
Bing Pressuring Google
January 1, 2011
Keep in mind that Google controls a big chunk of Web and mobile search. I am not sure what the mid-tier consulting firms report as Google’s share, but it is hefty. The number 65 percent of US searches is one that I see from time to time. Microsoft, therefore, is in catch up mode. “Can Bing Take on Google with These New Features” reported:
“Starting today, if your search results include a specific link that has also been ‘liked’ by someone in your Facebook network the link will be highlighted as ‘Liked’ within Bing,” Microsoft’s Bing team explains. “This gets especially interesting for a query like ‘Xbox’ where my friend ‘Liked’ the ‘Kinect’ site and while our algorithms didn’t feel it was relevant enough to make it the ‘answer’ we reference above, we are still able to indicate that my friend liked that link that happened to show up within the results.”
The new functions are interesting and aimed at individuals who do popular or what I call “soft” searching. There are social features with Facebook hooks, information about sports, and new local search services.
Three observations:
- Microsoft is hooking into other information providers; for example, for restaurant information, OpenTable. This interlocking is useful, and it is a model that may give Microsoft an advantage as Google races to gain ground in social functions and refine its consumerized offerings.
- Microsoft is pushing the user experience angle. Right now, Bing.com looks quite good to me, and I have a hunch that consumers will respond positively to polish and gloss.
- Google is the clear leader. With refinements to Bing.com, Google faces 2011 with the knowledge that Microsoft is not prepared to concede defeat in search and search-related services.
However, the punishing costs of delivering consumer information services are unlikely to go down in 2011. Both Google and Microsoft have the cash to keep the search arms race operational. The downside is that companies with solid Web search technology enter 2011 with foreknowledge of the costs of competing in general purpose, consumer centric search and search related applications.
It looks like a two horse race for search in 2011. Which horse has the prettier one trick revenue pony?
Stephen E Arnold, January 1, 2011
Freebie
Oracle and Its Targets for 2011
January 1, 2011
Which struck me as more important? [a] Oracle’s push into the cloud for collaborative type apps. [b] Oracle’s alleged statement that HP and IBM may have to kiss their high end server business goodbye. I like [b]. Corporate action on the front lines of sales. Navigate to “Larry To HP And IBM: We’re Coming For Your Server Customers” and get the scoop including an audio clip.
Observations:
- High stakes and digital thermonuclear war for 2011
- Price cutting ahead? Yep.
- And what about search? Nada. Oracle has a “good enough” system. Put that effort into vanquishing to giant companies.
When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.
Stephen E Arnold, January 1, 2011
Freebie
Google Microsoft Battles: Tactics for 2011
January 1, 2011
“The 10 Bloodiest Battles Microsoft and Google Fought in 2010” provides a good run down of the most visible dust ups between the two giants. The write up covers legal hassles between the two companies and the more interesting squabbles about how office workers should access their fact-filled, action-packed PowerPoints, Word files, and Excel sheets. Two points of conflict that stand out in my opinion is the struggle for US government contracts and cloud services.
My take on the fights is that this article as well as most of the others written to explain what Google is doing and what Microsoft is doing are missing the main point. What is the main point? Google does not have to win any battle. In fact, since 2005—based on my research—Google has been implementing the “death by 1,000 cuts” strategy. (The illustration shows a whimsical kitchen knife block which reminded me of the “tiny cuts method.” I saw this kitchen gizmo at a holiday party last weekend.)
Google and its surgical approach to challenging Microsoft. Image source: http://slashcool.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/voodooknifeblock.jpg
Microsoft depends on revenue from slapping Windows operating system license fees on PCs, netbooks, and notebook computers. Microsoft also has done a great job of getting Windows servers and enterprise software into organizations behind the foot soldiers with Microsoft certification. Like the Oracle database administrators, those certified professionals depend on Microsoft to pay the bills. In other sectors, Microsoft has turned in a mixed record.
The Google is wise enough to know that distraction exacerbates Microsoft’s organizational methods will continue to operate in their traditional manner. Need I mention the Kin as the exemplar of the outputs of the Microsoft system? Google, therefore, takes small steps like offering a cloud based alternative to Microsoft Office for a low ball price. Microsoft reacts and rolls out a product that is more expensive. Go figure.
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
