Forrester Predicts the End of Social Networking
December 19, 2011
Yep, ever hungry for clicks and buzz, another azure chip firm cooks up a prediction that may surprise Facebook.
Oh, no, another big trend is in trouble! Or so Forrester CEO George Colony would have us believe. “Social networking’s salad days are ending, Forrester says,” reports Stephen Shankland at Cnet News. Colony insists that the market for social networking is saturated, and people don’t have time for it anyway. The article asserts:
’We are in a bubble for social startups,’ [Colony] said. When it bursts, ‘this is going to sweep away some of the nonsense, like FourSquare. We are going to move to a post-social world that’s a little like the Web in the year 2000. A lot of companies launched, but they did not survive.’
Humph.
Though Shankland says Forrester based its conclusions on consumer research, we’re more than a little skeptical. These assertions come from an azure chip consultant looking for angles. Data? Not so much. Insight? Not so much.
Interesting? As long it generates business, the azure chip crowd has done its job. Does this mean that Google’s play for social search is a loser? Forrester will elucidate sure am I.
Cynthia Murrell, December 19, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
Googley Manager and AOL Math
December 18, 2011
Short honk:. I am not watching America Online, now known as AOL. I loaded the dial up program once, noticed the hidden file, and dismissed the company. When AOL snagged Personal Library Software, I took another look and did not see anything that caught my attention. When the Googler Tim Armstrong moved to AOL, I took the position that I would be able to see how the Google method applied to AOL. I think we have some data.
Navigate to “There Is Something Fundamentally Wrong With AOL’s Media Business.” What is the assertion which suggests how well Google management methods work? Here you go:
AOL’s access business generates about $100 million of operating profit per quarter, and
AOL’s search business generates about $75 million of operating profit per quarter.
The access and search businesses together, therefore, generate about $175 million of operating profit per quarter. Importantly, both of these businesses are shrinking fast, and both of their fortunes are tied together. AOL’s access subscribers drive most of its searches, so as the subscribers cancel the service, their searches disappear. So AOL won’t be able to live on the cash flow from these two businesses forever. Anyway, given that AOL’s total operating profit is about $16 million, this suggests that the media business is losing about $160 million per quarter.
Google management methods are not working. “Patch” the system? Tough job. And search? Provided by Google, AOL helps out the Mountain View folks, but the AOL crowd seems to be hunting for a different animal.
Stephen E Arnold, December 18, 2011
Predictions on Big Data Miss the Real Big Trend
December 18, 2011
Athena the goddess of wisdom does not spend much time in Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky. I don’t think she’s ever visited. However, I know that she is not hanging out at some of the “real journalists’” haunts. I zipped through “Big Data in 2012: Five Predictions”. These are lists which are often assembled over a lunch time chat or a meeting with quite a few editorial issues on the agenda. At year’s end, the prediction lunch was a popular activity when I worked in New York City, which is different in mental zip from rural Kentucky.
The write up churns through some ideas that are evident when one skims blog posts or looks at the conference programs for “big data.” For example—are you sitting down?—the write up asserts: “Increased understanding of and demand for visualization.” There you go. I don’t know about you, but when I sit in on “intelligence” briefings in the government or business environment, I have been enjoying the sticky tarts of visualization for years. Nah, decades. Now visualization is a trend? Helpful, right?
Let me identify one trend which is, in my opinion, an actual big deal. Navigate to “The Maximal Information Coefficient.” You will see a link and a good summary of a statistical method which allows a person to process “big data” in order to determine if there are gems within. More important, the potential gems pop out of a list of correlations. Why is this important? Without MIC methods, the only way to “know” what may be useful within big data was to run the process. If you remember guys like Kolmogorov, the “we have to do it because it is already as small as it can be” issue is an annoying time consumer. To access the original paper, you will need to go to the AAAS and pay money.
The abstract for “Detecting Novel Associates in Large Data Sets by David N. Reshef1,2,3,*,†, Yakir A. Reshef, Hilary K. Finucane, Sharon R. Grossman, Gilean McVean, Peter Turnbaugh, Eric S. Lander, Michael Mitzenmacher, Pardis C. Sabet, Science, December 16, 2011 is:
Identifying interesting relationships between pairs of variables in large data sets is increasingly important. Here, we present a measure of dependence for two-variable relationships: the maximal information coefficient (MIC). MIC captures a wide range of associations both functional and not, and for functional relationships provides a score that roughly equals the coefficient of determination (R^2) of the data relative to the regression function. MIC belongs to a larger class of maximal information-based nonparametric exploration (MINE) statistics for identifying and classifying relationships. We apply MIC and MINE to data sets in global health, gene expression, major-league baseball, and the human gut microbiota and identify known and novel relationships.
Stating a very interesting although admittedly complex numerical recipe in a simple way is difficult, I think this paragraph from “The Maximal Information Coefficient” does a very good job:
The authors [Reshef et al] go on showing that that the MIC (which is based on “gridding” the correlation space at different resolutions, finding the grid partitioning with the largest mutual information at each resolution, normalizing the mutual information values, and choosing the maximum value among all considered resolutions as the MIC) fulfills this requirement, and works well when applied to several real world datasets. There is a MINE Website with more information and code on this algorithm, and a blog entry by Michael Mitzenmacher which might also link to more information on the paper in the future.
Another take on the MIC innovation appears in “Maximal Information Coefficient Teases Out Multiple Vast Data Sets”. Worth reading as well.
Forbes will definitely catch up with this trend in a few years. For now, methods such as MIC point the way to making “big data” a more practical part of decision making. Yep, a trend. Why? There’s a lot of talk about “big data” but most organizations lack the expertise and the computational know how to perform meaningful analyses. Similar methods are available from Digital Reasoning and the Google love child Recorded Future. Palantir is more into the make pictures world of analytics. For me, MIC and related methods are not just a trend; they are the harbinger of processes which make big data useful, not a public relations, marketing, or PowerPoint chunk of baloney. Honk.
Stephen E Arnold, December 18, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com, a company located where high school graduates actually can do math.
Google to Be Disappeared in 24 Months?
December 18, 2011
Ask a silly question. . . .
Well, it’s good to have a laugh once in a while. Search Engine Journal asks, “Will Google Be Around in 2 Years?” What prompted that query?
Turns out this question explored by writer Gabriel Gervelis was prompted by the Ted talk from Roger McNamee called Six Ways to Save the Internet. McNamee feels that index search is going down as a result in the decline of quality search results. Instead, he says, folks are turning directly to sites like Wikipedia and Twitter as well as to mobile apps for information. The article asserts:
The direct effect of this is that Google is losing the ‘biggest player on the internet’ status; this is something that they will not be able to regain control of. ’Is this happening?’, ‘What other ways will Google try to make money?’ I asked myself. After thinking about it I came to the conclusion that it is happening right now! Google is expanding outside of index search and ad serving to make up for the loss generated from this trend.
Yes, it’s called adaptation. Gervelis just answered his own question: Google will be around for far more than two more years because, if index search is indeed on the wane, the company will thrive on other sources of revenue. In fact, Google is kinda known for trying out lots of things at once.
. . . get a silly answer.
Cynthia Murrell, December 18, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
FirstRain Gets Some Azure Chip Love
December 18, 2011
According to the October 25 news release, FirstRain Recognized as “Innovative Business Analytics Company under $100M to Watch in 2011” by Leading Market Research Firm, the analyst firm IDC has included FirstRain, an analytics software company, in its 2011 list of “Innovative Business Analytics Companies Under $100M to Watch.”
FirstRain is an analytics software company that uses its Business Monitoring Engine to provide professionals with access to the business Web. The company’s semantic-categorization technology instantly cuts through the clutter of consumer Web content, delivering only highly-relevant intelligence.
The company was highlighted in the “Cloud-based Analytics” category for their innovative use of semantic analysis to extract and deliver high-value information from the Web.
IDC observed:
The value in using FirstRain is the breadth of its coverage, combined with its depth of selection and filtering so that it delivers the information that users need to see without cluttering their desktops or their minds with too much that is extraneous. It was easy to integrate into existing information delivery channels and because of the high relevance of the information that it delivered.
The fact that IDC even has a list of top business analytics companies shows how important search optimization software is becoming in the business world. Who knew that business intelligence would be the new black?
Jasmine Ashton, December 18, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
Google and Its Third Circle of L: Dante, It Is Searchatory
December 17, 2011
“Exclusive: Google CEO’s Inner Circle: Meet the L Team” is to some a bomb shell. Me? Not so much. The “exclusive” asserted:
In the revamping of the group earlier this year, Page swapped out several of the executives who previously had seats at the table and brought in managers spearheading key initiatives. Among the new members of Page’s cabinet are social networking head Vic Gundotra, Android mobile chief Andy Rubin and YouTube head Salar Kamangar, according to people familiar with the matter. Page meets regularly with the team, which also includes Google’s top finance and legal executives and is now internally called the L Team, to discuss, evaluate and approve their plans, from acquisitions to new products.
Good group. Know what I noticed? Search is not what most of these folks think about. Implications? In my opinion, three:
- There is an implicit assumption that search is “just there” or not where it is at.
- The focus is shifting to services which create different technical hurdles for Google. Example: fragmentation and consumerization.
- From a business point of view, Google is not just navigating in rough waters. Google may not have the fleet it needs to complete its journey to $100 billion.
What the “L”? No search.
Stephen E Arnold, December 17, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
Azure Chip Gartner Quadrantizes Archiving
December 17, 2011
Records management has been shown some love this month by information technology research and advisory company Gartner, Inc.
According to the Dec 8, Marketwire news release “Sonian Positioned in 2011 Magic Quadrant for Enterprise Information Archiving,” Sonian, a cloud powered archiving and search solutions company, announced that it has been positioned in the December 2011 Magic Quadrant for Enterprise Information Archiving.
Over 8,000 customers currently utilize Sonian’s cloud-powered information archiving platform which can be deployed in minutes. It enables organizations to address eDiscovery needs, achieve regulatory compliance, and reduce IT costs.
The Magic Quadrant report, which positions vendors based on their ability to execute and completeness of vision, noted:
The challenges organizations are facing with respect to the management of email data are increasingly being seen with file system data. Archiving products that can address both email and files generally provide efficiencies across these content types, versus taking a siloed approach to management. While cloud archiving can be very cost-effective, the prevailing sentiment to simply give the problem of managing this data to someone else seems to be one of the most common reasons organizations cite for selecting cloud or SaaS archiving.
The fact that Gartner is cheerleading information archiving is an excellent sign. With just a few more Corzine and Madoff incidents and archiving will be a hot topic in corporate boardrooms.
Jasmine Ashton, December 17, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
Digimind 9 Now Available
December 17, 2011
In the current economic climate, businesses are under more pressure than ever to consolidate their resources and invest in products that will maximize cost and efficiency. When choosing information management solutions, it is especially important that companies keep their specific needs in mind.
According to a recent PRWeb news release “Digimind launches Digimind 9 – Next generation Competitive Intelligence for Smarter Decision Making,” competitive intelligence software provider Digimind, has released Digimind 9, updated software which is designed to accompany organizations throughout their intelligence workflows.
The article states:
Digimind 9 comes in response to a growing demand from companies willing to complement their CI apparatus with such features included as “advanced semantic analysis”, “social media monitoring”, and “intelligence profile management”. Indeed, beyond the conventional intelligence workflows, more intelligence requirements surface nowadays to leverage on social networks, unstructured data, and related analysis.
As data is being created faster than ever, Digimind 9 meets the ever growing need for companies to improve their capacity and to react and anticipate rapid changes.
Jasmine Ashton, December 17, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
Gray Lady Limping: A Troubled New York Times?
December 16, 2011
I don’t want to draw parallels between the management shifts at Thomson Reuters and the New York Times. Let me document the fact that another semi-surprise hit the struggling New York Times. Navigate to “NY Times CEO exiting, without Explanation.”
The Times Co gave no explanation for Robinson’s sudden departure, which caught analysts as well as company insiders by surprise. Speculation among industry observers and the analyst community centered on the company’s faltering stock price, which has declined more than 80 percent since Robinson was appointed CEO in December 2004. This year alone, shares are down nearly 25 percent, a performance that has frustrated investors.
Also interesting was the departure of Martin Nisenholtz, the person who has matched the dismal performance of the Financial Times’s online services. After pulling the New York Times from LexisNexis, the New York Times demonstrated that it was unable to generate big dough when it came to leveraging its brand in the online world. I view the misguided handling of the LexisNexis deal as the first benchmark in the Times’s fascinating financial decline. Business school case study anyone: LexisNexis to the first Times’s online service to the current line up of services to the fumbling of its own indexing to the handling of About.com to today. Yowza. I am glad I am in rural Kentucky, semi retired, hopeless confused, and no longer working in the newspaper industry. Anyone hear the sound of dead trees falling in the forest? When you walk alone and get lost, one can spend quite a while in the wilderness. Watch out. Here comes another dead tree falling.
Stephen E Arnold, December 16, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
OpenText, Its Management Shift, and Search Challenge
December 16, 2011
Short honk: Management shifts are flashing yellow lights. Examples range from the shuffles underway at America Online to the RPMs at Thomson Reuters’ revolving door. Now OpenText, a collection of poorly integrated information and content processing companies, has allegedly started the process of replacing its top dog. I read “SGI’s Barrenechea To Run Open Text.” Here’s the passage I noted:
Open Text this morning said it has named current SGI chief Mark Barrenechea as president and CEO effective January {,2012].
Mr. Barrenechea’s background according to Forbes includes:
Mr. Barrenechea served as Executive Vice President and CTO for CA, Inc. (?CA?), (formerly Computer Associates International, Inc.), a software company, from 2003 to 2006 and was a member of the executive management team. Prior to CA, Mr. Barrenechea served as Senior Vice President of Applications Development at Oracle Corporation, an enterprise software company, from 1997 to 2003, managing a multi-thousand person global team while serving as a member of the executive management team. From 1994 to 1997, Mr. Barrenechea served as Vice President of Development at Scopus, an applications company. Prior to Scopus Mr. Barrenechea was with Tesseract, an applications company, where he was responsible for reshaping the company’s line of human capital management software as Vice President of Development. Mr. Barrenechea holds a Bachelor of Science degree in computer science from Saint Michael?s College.
Interesting. Three developments to watch in my opinion are:
- OpenText’s ability to integrate a wide range of products and services into a cohesive offering. Compared to Autonomy’s marketing, also a company built via content centric applications, OpenText has not mounted compelling marketing campaigns which make the company’s products interesting.
- OpenText’s engineering to update some of its properties to keep those products in step with competitors’ offerings.
- OpenText’s cloud services deliver value and features to enterprise customers unable or unwilling to cope with the burdens of traditional on premises solutions.
One of the more interesting tasks for the new president will be figuring out what to do with OpenText’s line up of search systems. These include the aging BASIS and BRS Search, the Nstein system, the SGML search system, and the embedded components in such OpenText properties as RedDot. The cost of keeping each of these systems in step with competitive solutions strikes me as too large for even OpenText’s revenues.
Will OpenText be a kinder, gentler marketer? Will open text implement Computer Associates’ style of sales? Exciting 2012 for OpenText, its customers, employees, and technology staff. I hear the revolving door spinning in rural Kentucky.
Stephen E Arnold, December 16, 2011
Sponsored by Pandia.com
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