Another Bayes Theorem Explanation
June 26, 2015
Our old pal Reverend Bayes cooked up an important numerical recipe. Sure, it strikes some as counter intuitive, but the approach has been useful, controversial, and tough to explain to those who struggle with math.
If you want to know why some real journalists get nervous when confronted with Bayesian methods, navigate to “Bayes’ Theorem.” There is a useful explanation plus a dusting of equations. I know these are often deal breakers, but the author, as I, find them helpful.
The discussion of Priors is quite well done. There is also a touch of poetry:
As an example, the explanation that Thor’s wrath is responsible for thunderstorms may sound simple enough to humans, and definitely simpler than atmospheric physics. However, a computer program that simulated Thor throwing lightning bolts needed not only to simulate the lightning bolts themselves, but Thor as well. Viewed from this perspective, Thor appears as an unnecessary complication, which does not in fact have any explanatory power. By contrast, the Standard Model of particle physics explains much, much more than thunderstorms, and its rules could be written down in a few pages of programming code.
Remember that the sun will shine through the metaphor.
Stephen E Arnold, June 26, 2015
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