Reverend Bayes: Still Making Headlines
January 6, 2016
Autonomy, now owned by Hewlett Packard Enterprise, was one of the first commercial search and content processing firms to embrace Bayesian methods. The approach in the 1990s was not as well known and as widely used as it is today. Part of the reason was the shroud of secrecy dropped over the method. Another factor was the skepticism some math folks had about the “judgment” factor required to set up Bayesian methods. That skepticism is still evident today even though Bayesian methods are used by many of the information processing outfits making headlines today.
A good example of the attitude appears in “Bayes’s Theorem: What’s the Big Deal?”
Here’s the quote I noted:
Embedded in Bayes’ theorem is a moral message: If you aren’t scrupulous in seeking alternative explanations for your evidence, the evidence will just confirm what you already believe. Scientists often fail to heed this dictum, which helps explains why so many scientific claims turn out to be erroneous. Bayesians claim that their methods can help scientists overcome confirmation bias and produce more reliable results, but I have my doubts.
Bayesian methods are just one of the most used methods in analytics outfits. Will these folks change methods? Nah.
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2015
Comments
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
