Battle of the Mid Tier Pundits: Smartwatch Sales

November 13, 2016

I love it when mid tier outfits do battle. Most blue chip consulting firms carve out unique niches and then create MBA lists and data designed to underscore the firms’ prescience and, dare I say it, brilliance. Not so with the mid tier outfits. These folks do the me to thing. Need to know what’s hoppin’ in 2017, just look at the flow of prognostications.

I read “Is the Smartwatch Market Tanking or on a Long, Slow Climb.” What makes this wonderful is that one of the mid tier outfits is or was affiliated with IDG, owner of Network World, the publication pointing out the discontinuities in estimates.

Hey, I love discontinuities. Think Brexit polls.

The write up points out without much irony or concern that

In late October, market research firm IDC said smartwatch shipments in the third quarter declined by 51% from the same quarter of 2015. The total shipped in the third quarter was 2.7 million, IDC said. By comparison, research firm Canalys on Thursday said smartwatch shipments were up 60% for the third quarter of 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago. That resulted in 6.1 million units shipped in the latest quarter, Canalys said.

Hmmm. Separate universes or an example of bad sampling, lousy data, and former English majors getting into technology analysis? Who knows.

Now about that data about Apple smartwatches, which I think are sort of wonky. The write up revealed:

IDC said Apple shipped 1.1 million units, a decline of 71%. But Canalys said Apple shipped 2.8 million Apple Watches, nearly three times as many as IDC reported.

There you go. But the write up does not focus on:

Verification
Vetting
Management quality control.

My hunch is that most professionals don’t care. The time constrained folks will just choose the result that supports their position. I love the brave new world of mid tier consulting firm data. Waves and hype cycles are another kettle of fish because they are so “metaphorical,” which is appropriate for a student of Chaucer.

Stephen E Arnold, November 13, 2016

Written by Stephen E. Arnold · Filed Under Marketing, News, Technology

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Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.