Big Data and Predictive Math: Some Doubters
January 19, 2018
I love Big Data. I love fancy math. I spotted two articles this morning which offer a contrarian view about two popular buzzwords: Big Data and Predictive Analytics.
The first write up is from the capitalist’s tool, Forbes Magazine. I can not tell what’s an ad or what’s a “real” journalistic endeavor. But in today’s world? Maybe the distinction is like arguing with St. Thomas Aquinas about the cause of evil.
Forbes’ story is “Big Data Is Overrated Compared To Human Ingenuity.” The main point is that humans with intelligence are more ingenious than software. No software, as far as I can tell, was consulted when formulating the thesis. The main point for me was:
an algorithm may be able to cover sports, you cannot clone or generate whimsy or humor or the essence of what makes writing enjoyable to read. We are not (at least not yet) at a point where computers are able to have full conversations, let alone exude the creativity to come up with ideas. The creative geniuses of the future may, in fact, be aided by big data, but they will simply use it (as one would use Google to search the giant database known as the internet) to ask the right questions to solve the world’s problems.
My thought is, “What about robot wars?” Does that TV show presage the NFL of the future?
The second write up is from a British online publication. The article’s title is “Software That Predicts Whether Crims Will Break the Law Again Is No Better Than You or Me.”
The main idea strikes me as:
…if you took someone with no legal, psychological or criminal justice system training – perhaps you, dear reader – and showed them a few bits of information about a given defendant, they’d be able to guess as well as this software as to whether the criminal would break the law again.
Interesting point; however, software might be able to chop through a backlog of cases, thus reducing costs. Sure a few good apples will be tossed into the for profit prisons, but that’s just a statistical error.
What I find amusing is the point made by a TV pundit in “How to Stop ‘Extremely Disruptive’ AI from Harming Society: Robert Shiller.” I don’t know about you but knowing unintended consequences before they occur might be difficult. Facebook has been around for years, and people are just now figuring out that the system can do more than help grandmother keep track of the grandchildren.
Exciting stuff. Predictive law enforcement is important. Big Data are getting bigger and being used to sell ads to people who don’t recognize the message as an ad. Regulating technology is like standing on the pier after the Queen Mary set sail and shouting, “Hey, come back.”
Stephen E Arnold, January 19, 2018
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