Math: The New Reality for Cryptocurrency Believers?
August 3, 2018
A lot of really smart people believe they can predict the future with math. Before you laugh, consider that meteorologists study weather patterns to predict the weather, biologists studies a tumor’s growth trajectory to determine future growth, and financial analysts predict the stock market’s up and downs. Phys.org takes a look at how scientists are using math to track down patterns to then predict the future: “Can Math Predict What You Do Next?”
Guess what the article is talking about? Big data and predictive analytics! It explains how retailers like Amazon use predictive analytics to predict what products consumers want next. Online advertisers are doing it to! Wow! This is new stuff…not, but the information on mathematical machine learning puts some new thoughts out there.
Machine learning algorithms can accurately predict Supreme Court outcomes, suicide attempts, and terrorist attacks. Machine learning is not perfectly accurate:
“As technology develops, scientists may find that we can predict human behavior rather well in one area, while still lacking in another. It’s very difficult to give an overall sense of the limitations. For instance, facial recognition may be easier to emulate because vision is one of many human sensory processing systems, or because there are only so many ways faces can differ. On the other hand, predicting voting behavior, especially based on the 2016 presidential election, is quite another story. There are many complex and not yet understood reasons why humans do what they do.”
One example is the reassuring human behavior of using information for personal gain. Combine opportunity, cleverness, and greed, and you end up with cryptocurrency markets struggling with insider trading. Math seems to contribute to the human calculus.
Whitney Grace, August 3, 2018
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Math: The New Reality for Cryptocurrency Believers? : Stephen E. Arnold @ Beyond Search