Should Social Media Algorithms be Used to Predict Crime?
September 18, 2019
Do we want Thought Police? Because this is how you get Thought Police. Though tragedies like the recent mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton are horrifying, some “solutions” are bound to do more harm than good. President Trump’s recent call for social-media companies to predict who will become a mass shooter so authorities can preemptively move against them is right out of Orwell’s 1984. Digital Trends asks, “Can Social Media Predict Mass Shootings Before They Happen?” Technically, it probably can, but with limited accuracy. Journalist Mathew Katz writes:
“Companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Amazon already use algorithms to predict your interests, your behaviors, and crucially, what you like to buy. Sometimes, an algorithm can get your personality right – like when Spotify somehow manages to put together a playlist full of new music you love. In theory, companies could use the same technology to flag potential shooters. ‘To an algorithm, the scoring of your propensity [to] purchase a particular pair of shoes is not very different from the scoring of your propensity to become a mass murderer—the main difference is the data set being scored,’ wrote technology and marketing consultant Shelly Palmer in a newsletter on Sunday. But preventing mass shootings before they happen raises some thorny legal questions: how do you determine if someone is just angry online rather than someone who could actually carry out a shooting? Can you arrest someone if a computer thinks they’ll eventually become a shooter?”
That is what we must decide as a society. We also need to ask whether algorithms are really up to the task. We learn:
“The Partnership on AI, an organization looking at the future of artificial intelligence, conducted an intensive study on algorithmic tools that try to ‘predict’ crime. Their conclusion? ‘These tools should not be used alone to make decisions to detain or to continue detention.’”
But we all know that once people get an easy-to-use tool, the ease-of-use can quickly trump accuracy. Think of how often you see ads online for products you would never buy, Katz prompts. Then consider how it would feel to be arrested for a crime you would never commit.
Cynthia Murrell, September 18, 2019
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