AI Job Lawnmowers: Will Your Blooms Be Chopped Off and Put a Rat King in Your Future?
March 25, 2024
This essay is the work of a dumb dinobaby. No smart software required.
I love “you will lose your job to AI” articles. I spotted an interesting one titled “The Job Sectors That Will Be Most Disrupted By AI, Ranked.” This is not so much an article as a billboard for an outfit named Voronoi, “where data tells the story.” That’s interesting because there is no data, no methodology, and no indication of the confidence level for each “nuked job.” Nevertheless, we have a ranking.
Thanks, MSFT Copilot. Will you be sparking human rat kings? I would wager that you will.
As I understand the analysis of 19,000 tasks, here’s that the most likely to be chopped down and converted to AI silage will be:
IT / programmers: 73 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Finance / bean counters: 70 percent of the jobs will experience a large impact
Customer sales: 67 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Operations (well, that’s a fuzzy category, isn’t it?): 65 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Personnel / HR: 57 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Marketing: 56 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Legal eagles: 46 percent of the job will experience a large impact
Supply chain (another fuzzy wuzzy bucket): 43 percent of the job will experience a large impact
The kicker in the data is that the numbers date from September 2023. Six months in the faerie land of smart software is a long, long time. Let’s assume that the data meet 2024’s gold standard.
Technology, finance, sales, marketing, and lawyering may shatter the future of employees of less value in terms of compensation, cost to the organization, or whatever management legerdemain the top dogs and their consultants whip up. Imagine eliminate the overhead for humans like office space, health care, retirement baloney, and vacations makes smart software into an attractive “play.”
And what about the fuzzy buckets? My thought is that many people will be trimmed because a chatbot can close a sale for a product without the hassle which humans drag into the office; for example, sexual harassment, mental, drug, and alcohol “issues,” and the unfortunate workplace shooting. I think that a person sitting in a field office to troubleshoot issues related to a state or county contract might fall into the “operations” category even though the employee sees the job as something smart software cannot perform. Ho ho ho.
Several observations:
- A trivial cost analysis of human versus software over a five-year period means humans lose
- AI systems, which may suck initially, will be improved over time. These initial failures may cause the once alert to replacement employee into a false sense of security
- Once displaced, former employees will have to scramble to produce cash. With lots of individuals chasing available work and money plays, life is unlikely to revert back to the good old days of the Organization Man. (The world will be Organization AI. No suit and white shirt required.)
Net net: I am glad I am old and not quite as enthralled by efficiency.
Stephen E Arnold, March 25, 2024
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