Smart Software and Non-Essential Jobs Rubble-ized
June 27, 2024
This essay is the work of a dinobaby. Unlike some folks, no smart software improved my native ineptness.
I am not convinced that the end of the world is nigh. I am amused by the accelerationists and the “put on the brakes” crowd. I do find it interesting that some suggest the banking sector will replace one-fifth of its oh so wonderful staff with smart software. Every penny matters when one’s bonus is on the line in carpetland.
Who will be harmed by rolling the AI dice to see who pulls a card from a precarious structure? The people working at AI companies perceive themselves as safe. Others — in jobs that should not exist — are likely to find van life, making TikToks, and cruising less rewarding than making art or working in a bank. Thanks, MSFT good enough like many things these days.
The most interesting comment about the people who will soon be able to find their future elsewhere emerged from that bastion of management excellence OpenAI. The article “OpenAI CTO: AI Could Kill Some Creative Jobs That Maybe Shouldn’t Exist Anyway” presents some startling information allegedly emitted by the Chief Technical Officer of OpenAI. (The same individual who did not know from whence the content processed by OpenAI came.)
The write up reports:
OpenAI’s CTO Mira Murati isn’t worried about such potential negative impacts, suggesting during a talk this month that if AI does kill some creative jobs, those jobs were maybe always a bit replaceable anyway. "I think it’s really going to be a collaborative tool, especially in the creative spaces," [OpenAI’s CTO Ms. Murati allegedly said].
The article explains:
Since OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public, fears that different types of generative AI could take or eliminate jobs have swirled across a range of industries. OpenAI has been pushing its text-to-video Sora tool to Hollywood. Game developers, writers, and voice actors have also expressed anger and frustration over generative AI tools and voices that could take their jobs as companies like Microsoft and Electronic Arts embrace AI.
Several observations:
First, my view is that if a good enough solution replaces a really good but expensive human, smart software will get the job. Money talks.
Second, smart software is percolating through niche and specialized software businesses. Israel plays host to an AI cyber conference. Will policeware and intelware vendors and customers get excited about automating and making smart certain routine business processes. Some of these are just begging to get the old smart software treatment. Some of these systems will have unanticipated job consequences.
Third, each year training of professionals becomes more time consuming, expensive, and difficult. The individuals in the classes want to learn, but in my own lectures I see the impact of less-than-optimal high school, college, and graduate education. When something “new” must be integrated into a process, developers will deliver systems that “just do it.” We’re not talking about putting on sneakers and hitting the gym. We are entering a phase when people don’t know what smart software is doing and don’t have the mental equipment to figure out what’s right and what’s absolutely a waste of time. Dealing with legal consequences and the need for more skilled humans, smart software is now starting to deliver a fresh set of challenges for keeping professionals up to date and adept.
Net net: Houses of cards can be sensitive to mild perturbations. Then the structure demonstrates structural deficiencies. Watch out below.
Stephen E Arnold, June 27, 2024
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