China Good, US Bad: Australia Reports the Unwelcome News
December 13, 2024
This write up was created by an actual 80-year-old dinobaby. If there is art, assume that smart software was involved. Just a tip.
I read “Critical Technology Tracker: Two Decades of Data Show Rewards of Long-Term Investment.” The write up was issued in September 2024, and I have no confidence that much has changed. I believe the US is the leader in marketing hyperbole output. Other countries are far behind, but some are closing the gaps. I will focus on the article, and I will leave it to you to read the full report available from the ASPI Australia Web site.
The main point of this report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute is that the US has not invested in long-term research. I am not sure how much of this statement is a surprise to those who have watched as US patents have become idea recyclers, the deterioration of US education, and the fascinating quest for big money.
The cited summary of the research reports:
The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five year period, it was leading in just seven.
I want to point out that playing online games and doom scrolling are not fundamental technologies. The US has a firm grip on the downstream effects of applied technology. The fundamentals are simply not there. AI which seems to be everywhere is little more than word probability which is not a fundamental; it is an application of methods.
The cited article points out:
The chart is easy to read. The red line heading up is China. The blue line going down is the US.
In what areas are China’s researchers making headway other than its ability to terminate some US imports quickly? Here’s what the cited article reports:
China has made its new gains in quantum sensors, high-performance computing, gravitational sensors, space launch and advanced integrated circuit design and fabrication (semiconductor chip making). The US leads in quantum computing, vaccines and medical countermeasures, nuclear medicine and radiotherapy, small satellites, atomic clocks, genetic engineering and natural language processing.
The list, one can argue, is arbitrary and easily countered by US researchers. There are patents, start ups, big financial winners, and many fine research institutions. With AI poised to become really smart in a few years, why worry?
I am not worried because I am old. The people who need to worry are the parents of children who cannot read and comprehend, who do not study and master mathematics, who do not show much interest in basic science, and are indifferent to the concept of work ethic.
Australia is worried. It is making an attempt to choke off the perceived corrosive effects of the US social media juggernaut for those under 16 years of age. It is monitoring China’s activities in the Pacific. It is making an effort to enhance its military capabilities.
Is America worried? I would characterize the attitude here in rural Kentucky as the mascot of Mad Magazine’s catchphrase, “What, me worry?”
Stephen E Arnold, December 13, 2024
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