FOGINT: A Shocking Assertion about Israeli Intelligence Before the October 2023 Attack
January 13, 2025
A post from the FOGINT team.
One of my colleagues alerted me to a new story in the Jerusalem Post. The article is “IDF Could’ve Stopped Oct. 7 by Monitoring Hamas’s Telegram, Researchers Say.” The title makes clear that this is an “after action” analysis. Everyone knows that thinking about the whys and wherefores right of bang is a safe exercise. Nevertheless, let’s look at what the Jerusalem Post reported on January 5, 2025.
First, this statement:
“These [Telegram] channels were neither secret nor hidden — they were open and accessible to all.” — Lt.-Col. (res.) Jonathan Dahoah-Halevi
Telegram puts some “silent” barriers to prevent some third parties from downloading in real time active discussions. I know of one Israeli cyber security firm which asserts that it monitors Telegram public channel messages. (I won’t ask the question, “Why didn’t analysts at that firm raise an alarm or contact their former Israeli government employers with that information? Those are questions I will sidestep.)
Second, the article reports:
These channels [public Telegram channels like Military Tactics] were neither secret nor hidden — they were open and accessible to all. The “Military Tactics” Telegram channel even shared professional content showcasing the organization’s level of preparedness and operational capabilities. During the critical hours before the attack, beginning at 12:20 a.m. on October 7, the channel posted a series of detailed messages that should have raised red flags, including: “We say to the Zionist enemy, [the operation] coming your way has never been experienced by anyone,” “There are many, many, many surprises,” “We swear by Allah, we will humiliate you and utterly destroy you,” and “The pure rifles are loaded, and your heads are the target.”
Third, I circled this statement:
However, Dahoah-Halevi further asserted that the warning signs appeared much earlier. As early as September 17, a message from the Al-Qassam Brigades claimed, “Expect a major security event soon.” The following day, on September 18, a direct threat was issued to residents of the Gaza border communities, stating, “Before it’s too late, flee and leave […] nothing will help you except escape.”
The attack did occur, and it had terrible consequences for the young people killed and wounded and for the Israeli cyber security industry, which some believe is one of the best in the world. The attack suggested that marketing rather than effectiveness created an impression at odds with reality.
What are the lessons one can take from this report? The FOGINT team will leave that to you to answer.
Stephen E Arnold, January 13, 2025
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