Management Insights Circa Spring 2025
March 18, 2025
Another dinobaby blog post. Eight decades and still thrilled when I point out foibles.
On a call today, one of the people asked, “Did you see that excellent leadership comes from ambivalence?” No, sorry. After my years at the blue chip consulting firm, I ignore those insights. Ambivalence. The motivated leader cares about money, the lawyers, the vacations, the big customer, and money. I think I have these in the correct order.
Imagine my surprise when I read another management breakthrough. Navigate to “Why Your ‘Harmonious’ Team Is Actually Failing.” The insight is that happy teams are in coffee shop mode. If one is not motivated by one of the factors I identified in the first paragraph of this essay, life will be like a drive-through smoothie shop. Kick back, let someone else do the work, and lap up that banana and tangerine goodie.
The write up reports about a management concept that is that one should strive for a roughie, maybe with a dollop of chocolate and some salted nuts. Get that blood pressure rising. Here’s a passage I noted:
… real psychological safety isn’t about avoiding conflict. It’s about creating an environment where challenging ideas makes the team stronger, not weaker.
The idea is interesting. I have learned that many workers, like helicopter parents, want to watch and avoid unnecessary conflicts, interactions, and dust ups. The write up slaps some psycho babble on this management insight. That’s perfect for academics on tenure track and talking to quite sensitive big spending clients. But often a more dynamic approach is necessary. If it is absent, there is a problem with the company. Hello, General Motors, Intel, and Boeing.
Stifle much?
The write up adds:
I’ve seen plenty of “nice” teams where everyone was polite, nobody rocked the boat, and meetings were painless. And almost all of those teams produced ok work. Why? Because critical thinking requires friction. Those teams weren’t actually harmonious—they were conflict-avoidant. The disagreements still existed; they just went underground. Engineers would nod in meetings then go back to their desks and code something completely different. Design flaws that everyone privately recognized would sail through reviews untouched. The real dysfunction wasn’t the lack of conflict—it was the lack of honest communication. Those teams weren’t failing because they disagreed too little; they were failing because they couldn’t disagree productively.
Who knew? Hello, General Motors, Intel, and Boeing.
Here’s the insight:
Here’s the weird thing I’ve found: teams that feel safe enough to hash things out actually have less nasty conflict over time. When small disagreements can be addressed head-on, they don’t turn into silent resentment or passive-aggressive BS. My best engineering teams were never the quiet ones—they were the ones where technical debates got spirited, where different perspectives were welcomed, and where we could disagree while still respecting each other.
The challenge is to avoid creating complacency.
Stephen E Arnold, March 18, 2025
AI May Be Discovering Kurt Gödel Just as Einstein and von Neumann Did
March 17, 2025
This blog post is the work of a humanoid dino baby. If you don’t know what a dinobaby is, you are not missing anything.
AI re-thinking is becoming more widespread. I published a snippet of an essay about AI and its impact in socialist societies on March 10, 2025. I noticed “A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress.” The write is interesting, and I think it represents thinking which is becoming more prevalent among individuals who have racked up what I call AI mileage.
The main theme of the write up is a modern day application of Kurt Gödel’s annoying incompleteness theorem. I am no mathematician like my great uncle Vladimir Arnold, who worked for year with the somewhat quirky Dr. Kolmogorov. (Family tip: Going winter camping with Dr. Kolmogorov wizard was not a good idea unless. Well, you know…)
The main idea is a formal axiomatic system satisfying certain technical conditions cannot decide the truth value of all statements about natural numbers. In a nutshell, a set cannot contain itself. Smart software is not able to go outside of its training boundaries as far as I know.
Back to the essay, the author points out that AI something useful:
There will be a ton of innovative applications of Deep Learning, perhaps chiefly in the field of biotech, see GPT-4b and Evo 2. Those are, I must stress, human-made innovative applications of the paradigm of automated continuous program search. Not AI models autonomously producing innovations.
The essay does contain a question I found interesting:
Because what else are they [AI companies and developers] to do? If they admit to themselves they’re not closing their fingers around godhood after all, what will they have left?
Let me offer several general thoughts. I admit that I am not able to answer the question, but some ideas crossed my mind when I was thinking about the sporty Kolmogorov, my uncle’s advice about camping in the winter, and this essay:
- Something else will come along. There is a myth that technology progresses. I think technology is like the fictional tribble on Star Trek. The products and services are destined to produce more products and services. Like the Santa Fe Institute crowd, order emerges. Will the next big thing be AI? Probably AI will be in the DNA of the next big thing. So one answer to the question is, “Something will emerge.” Money will flow and the next big thing cycle begins again.
- The innovators and the AI companies will pivot. This is a fancy way of saying, “Try to come up with something else.” Even in the age of monopolies and oligopolies, change is relentless. Some of the changes will be recognized as the next big thing or at least the thing a person can do to survive. Does this mean Sam AI-Man will manage the robots at the local McDonald’s? Probably not, but he will come up with something.
- The AI hot pot will cool. Life will regress to the mean or a behavior that is not hell bent on becoming a super human like the guy who gets transfusions from his kid, the wonky “have my baby” thinking of a couple of high profile technologist, or the money lust of some 25 year old financial geniuses on Wall Street. A digitized organization man man living out the theory of the leisure class will return. (Tip: Buy a dark grey suit. Lose the T shirt.)
As an 80 year old dinobaby, I find the angst of AI interesting. If Kurt Gödel were alive, he might agree to comment, “Sonny, you can’t get outside the set.” My uncle would probably say, “Those costs. Are they crazy?”
Stephen E Arnold, March 17, 2025
An Intel Blind Spot in Australia: Could an October-Type Event Occur?
March 17, 2025
Yep, another dinobaby original.
I read a “real” news article (I think) in the UK Telegraph. The story “How Chinese Warships Encircled Australia without Canberra Noticing” surprised me. The write up reports:
In a highly unusual move, three Chinese naval vessels dubbed Task Group 107 – including a Jiangkai-class frigate, a Renhai-class cruiser and a Fuchi-class replenishment vessel – were conducting exercises in Australia’s exclusive economic zone.
The date was February 21, 2025. The ships were 300 miles from Australia. What’s the big deal?
According to the write up:
Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister, downplayed the situation, while both the Australian Defence Force and the New Zealand Navy initially missed that the exercise was even happening.
Let me offer several observations based on what may a mostly accurate “real” news report:
- Australia like Israel is well equipped with home grown and third-party intelware. If the write up’s content is accurate, none of these intelware systems provided signals about the operation before, during, and after the report of the live fire drill
- As a member of Five Eyes, a group about which I know essentially nothing, Australia has access to assorted intelligence systems, including satellites. Obviously the data were incomplete, ignored, or not available to analysts or Preligens-type of systems. Note: Preligens is now owned by Safran
- What remediating actions are underway in Australia? To be fair, the “real” news outfit probably did not ask this question, but it seems a reasonable one to address. Someone was responsible, so what’s the fix?
Net net: Countries with sophisticated intelligence systems are getting some indications that these systems may not live up to the marketing hyperbole nor the procurement officials’ expectations of these systems. Israel suffered in many ways because of its 9/11 in October. One hopes that Australia can take this allegedly true incident involving China to heart and make changes.
Stephen E Arnold, March 17, 2025
What is the Difference Between Agentic and Generative AI? A Handy Chart
March 17, 2025
Agentic is the new AI buzzword. But what does it mean? Data-platform and AI firm Domo offers clarity in, "Agentic AI Explained: Definition, Benefits, and Use Cases." Writer Haziqa Sajid defines the term:
"Agentic AI is an advanced AI system that can act independently, make decisions, and adapt to changing situations. These AI systems can handle complex tasks such as strategic planning, multi-step automation, and dynamic problem-solving with minimal human oversight. This makes them more capable than traditional rule-based AI. … Agentic AI is designed to work like a human employee performing tasks that comprehend natural language input, set objectives, reason through a task, and modify actions based on updated input. It employs advanced machine learning, generative AI, and adaptive decision-making to learn from the data, refine its approach, and improve performance over time."
Wow, that sounds a lot like what we were promised with generative AI. Perhaps this version will meet expectations. AI Agents are still full of potential, poised on the edge of infiltrating real-world tools. The post describes what Domo sees as the tech’s advantages and gives the basics of how it works.
The most useful part is the handy chart comparing agentic and generative AI. For example, while the (actual) purpose of generative AI is mainly to generate text, image, and audio content, agentic ai is for executing tasks and making decisions in changing environments. The chart’s other measures of comparison include autonomy, interactivity, use cases, learning processes, and integration methods. See the post for that bookmark-worthy chart.
Founded back in 2010, Domo is based in Utah. The publicly traded firm boasts over 2,600 clients across diverse industries.
Cynthia Murrell, March 17, 2025
A NewPlay for Google and Huawei: A Give and Go?
March 14, 2025
Time for Google to get smarmy in court. We learn from TorrentFreak, "Google Must Testify as LaLiga Demands Criminal Liability for ‘Piracy Profits’." Writer Andy Maxwell summarizes:
"A court in Murcia, Spain, has ordered Google to testify in a criminal case concerning IPTV app, NewPlay. Football league LaLiga, whose matches were allegedly offered illegally through the app, previously called for the directors of Google, Apple, and Huawei to face criminal charges. LaLiga criticized the companies for failing to disable copies of NewPlay already installed on users’ devices. Google and Huawei must now testify as ‘profit-making participants’ in an alleged piracy scheme."
See the write-up for the twists and turns of the case thus far. The key point: Removing NewPlay from app stores was not enough for LaLiga. The league demands they reach in and remove the player from devices it already inhabits. The court agrees. We learn:
"The court order required Google, Apple, and Huawei to disable or delete NewPlay to prevent future use on users’ mobile devices. That apparently didn’t happen. Unhappy with the lack of compliance, in 2024 LaLiga called on the investigating judge to punish the tech companies’ directors. LaLiga says that the installed NewPlay apps still haven’t been remotely disabled but given the precedent that may set, LaLiga seems unlikely to let the matter go without a fight. With support from Telefónica, Mediapro and rights group EGEDA, LaLiga wants to hold Google and Huawei responsible for pirated content reportedly made available via the NewPlay app."
So now the court is requiring reps from Google and Huawei to appear and address this partial compliance. Why not Apple, too? That is a mystery, reports Maxwell. He also wonders about the bigger picture. The Newplay website is still up, he notes, though both its internal and external links are currently disabled. Besides, at least one other app exists that appears to do the same thing. Will the court become embroiled in a long-term game of IPTV whack-a-mole? Google is a magnet for the courts it seems.
Cynthia Murrell, March 14, 2025
Ah, Apple, Struggling with AI like Amazon, Google, et al
March 14, 2025
This blog post is the work of a humanoid dino baby. If you don’t know what a dinobaby is, you are not missing anything. Ask any 80 year old why don’t you?
Yes, it is Friday, March 14, 2025. Everyone needs a moment of amusement. I found this luscious apple bit and thought I would share it. Dinobabies like knowing how the world and Apple treats other dinobabies. You, as a younger humanoid, probably don’t care. Someday you will.
“Grandmother Gets X-Rated Message after Apple AI Fail” reports:
A woman from Dunfermline has spoken of her shock after an Apple voice-to-text service mistakenly inserted a reference to sex – and an apparent insult – into a message left by a garage… An artificial intelligence (AI) powered service offered by Apple turned it into a text message which – to her surprise – asked if she been "able to have sex" before calling her a "piece of ****".
Not surprisingly, Apple did not respond to the BBC request for a comment. Unperturbed, the Beeb made some phone calls. According to the article:
An expert has told the BBC the AI system may have struggled in part because of the caller’s Scottish accent, but far more likely factors were the background noise at the garage and the fact he was reading off a script.
One BBC expert offered these reasons for the foul fouled message:
Peter Bell, a professor of speech technology at the University of Edinburgh, listened to the message left for Mrs Littlejohn. He suggested it was at the "challenging end for speech-to-text engines to deal with". He believes there are a number of factors which could have resulted in rogue transcription:
- The fact it is over the telephone and, therefore, harder to hear
- There is some background noise in the call
- The way the garage worker speaks is like he is reading a prepared script rather than speaking in a natural way
"All of those factors contribute to the system doing badly, " he added. "The bigger question is why it outputs that kind of content.
I have a much simpler explanation. Like Microsoft, marketing is much easier than delivering something that works for humans. I am tempted to make fun of Apple Intelligence, conveniently abbreviated AI. I am tempted to point out that real world differences in the flow of Apple computers are not discernable when browsing Web pages or entering one’s iTunes password into the system several times a day.
Let’s be honest. Apple is big. Like Amazon (heaven help Alexa by the way), Google (the cheese fails are knee slappers, Sundar), and the kindergarten squabbling among Softies and OpenAI at Microsoft — Apple cannot “do” smart software at this time. Therefore, errors will occur.
On the other hand, perhaps the dinobaby who received the message is “a piece of ****"? Most dinobabies are.
Stephen E Arnold, March 14, 2025
Microsoft Leadership Will Be Replaced by AI… Yet
March 14, 2025
Whenever we hear the latest tech announcement, we believe it is doom and gloom for humanity. While fire, the wheel, the Industrial Revolution, and computers have yet to dismantle humanity, the jury is still out for AI. However, Gizmodo reports that Satya Nadella of Microsoft says we shouldn’t be worried about AI and it’s time to stop glorifying it, “Microsoft’s Satya Nadella Pumps the Brakes on AI Hype.” Nadella placed a damper on AI hype with the following statement from a podcast: “Success will be measured through tangible, global economic growth rather than arbitrary benchmarks of how well AI programs can complete challenges like obscure math puzzles. Those are interesting in isolation but do not have practical utility.”
Nadella said that technology workers are saying AI will replace humans, but that’s not the case. He calls that type of thinking a distraction and the tech industry needs to “get practical and just try and make money before investors get impatient.” Nadella’s fellow Microsoft worker CEO Sam Altman is a prime example of AI fear mongering. He uses it as a tool to give himself power.
Nadella continued that if the tech industry and its investors want AI growth akin to the Industrial Revolution then let’s concentrate in it. Proof of that type of growth would be if there was 10% inflation attributed to AI. Investing in AI can’t just happen on the supply side, there needs to be demand AI-built products.
Nadella’s statements are like a pouring a bucket of cold water on a sleeping person:
"On that sense, Nadella is trying to slap tech executives awake and tell them to cut out the hype. AI safety is somewhat of a concern—the models can be abused to create deepfakes or mass spam—but it exaggerates how powerful these systems are. Eventually, push will come to shove and the tech industry will have to prove that the world is willing to put down real money to use all these tools they are building. Right now, the use cases, like feeding product manuals into models to help customers search them faster, are marginal.”
Many well-known companies still plan on implementing AI despite their difficulties. Other companies have downsized their staffing to include more AI chatbots, but the bots prove to be inefficient and frustrating. Microsoft, however, is struggling with management issues related to OpenAI, its internal “experts,” and the Softies who think they can do better. (Did Microsoft ask Grok, “How do I manage this billions of dollar bonfire?”)
Let’s blame it on AI.
Whitney Grace, March 14, 2025, 2025
Wizard Snarks Amazon: Does Amazon Care? Ho Ho No
March 13, 2025
Another post from the dinobaby. Alas, no smart software used for this essay.
I read a wonderful essay from the fellow who created a number of high-value solutions. Remember the Oxford English Dictionary SGML project or the Open Text Index? The person involved deeply in both of these projects is Tim Bray. He wrote a pretty good essay called “Bye, Prime.” On the surface it is a chatty explanation of why a former Amazon officer dropped the “Prime” membership. Thinking about the comments in the write up, Dr. Bray’s article underscores some deeper issues.
In my opinion, the significant points include:
First, 21st century capitalism lacks “ethics stuff.” The decisions benefit the stakeholders.
Second, in a major metropolitan area, local outlets provide equivalent products at competitive prices. This suggests a bit of price exploitation occurs in giant online retail operations.
Third, American companies are daubed with tar as a result of certain national postures.
Fourth, a crassness is evident in some US online services.
Is the article about Amazon? I would suggest that it is, but the implications are broader. I recommend the write up. I believe attending to the explicit and implicit messages in the essay would be useful.
I think the processes identified by Dr. Bray are unlikely to slow. Going back is difficult, perhaps impossible.
PS. I think fixing up the security of AWS buckets, getting the third party reseller scams cleaned up, and returning basic functionality to the Kindle interface are indications that Amazon has gotten lost in one of its warehouses because smart Alexa is really dumb.
Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2025
Keeping an Eye on AI? Here Are Fifteen People of Interest for Some
March 13, 2025
Underneath the hype, there are some things AI is actually good at. But besides the players who constantly make the news, who is really shaping the AI landscape? A piece at Silicon Republic introduces us to "15 Influential Players Driving the AI Revolution." Writer Jenny Darmody observes:
"As AI continues to dominate the headlines, we’re taking a closer look at some of the brightest minds and key influencers within the industry. Throughout the month of February, SiliconRepublic.com has been putting AI under the microscope for more of a deep dive, looking beyond the regular news to really explore what this technology could mean. From the challenges around social media advertising in the new AI world to the concerns around its effect on the creative industries, there were plenty of worrying trends to focus on. However, there were also positive sides to the technology, such as its ability to preserve minority languages like Irish and its potential to reduce burnout in cybersecurity. While exploring these topics, the AI news just kept rolling: Deepseek continued to ruffle industry feathers, Thomson Reuters won a partial victory in its AI copyright case and the Paris AI Summit brought further investments and debates around regulation. With so much going on in the industry, we thought it was important to draw your attention to some key influencers you should know within the AI space."
Ugh, another roster of tech bros? Not so fast. On this list, the women actually outnumber the men, eight to seven. In fact, the first entry is Ireland’s first AI Ambassador Patricia Scanlon, who has hopes for truly unbiassed AI. Then there is the EU’s Lucilla Sioli, head of the European Commission’s AI Office. She is tasked with both coordinating Europe’s AI strategy and implementing the AI Act. We also happily note the inclusion of New York University’s Juliette Powell, who advises clients from gaming companies to banks in the responsible use of AI. See the write-up for the rest of the women and men who made the list.
Cynthia Murrell, March 13, 2025
NSO Group the PR of Intelware Captures Headlines …. Yet Again
March 13, 2025
Our reading and research have lead us to this basic rule: Unless measures are taken to keep something secret, diffusion is inevitable. Knowledge about systems, methods, and tools to access data is widespread. Case in point—Today’s General Counsel tells us, "Pegasus Spyware Is Showing Up on Corporate Execs’ Cell Phones." The brief write-up cites reporting by The Record’s Suzanne Smalley, who got her information from security firm iVerify. It shows a steep climb in Pegasus-infected devices over the second half of last year. We learn:
"The number of reported infected phones among iVerify corporate clients was eleven out of 18,000 devices tested in December last year. In May 2024, when iVerify first began offering the spyware testing service, a study found seven spyware infections out of 3,000 phones tested. ‘The world remains totally unprepared to deal with this from a security perspective,’ says iVerify co-founder and former National Security Agency analyst Rocky Cole, who was interviewed for the article. ‘This stuff is way more prevalent than people think.’ The article notes that business executives are now proving to be vulnerable, including individuals with access to proprietary plans and financial data, as well as those who frequently communicate with other influential leaders in the private sector. These leaders engage in sensitive work out of the public eye, including deals that have the potential to impact financial markets."
But how could this happen? Pegasus-maker NSO Group vows it only sells spyware to whitelisted governments for counterterrorism and fighting crime. It does do that. And also other things, reportedly. So we are unsurprised to find business executives among those allegedly targeted. We think it best to assume anything digital can be accessed by anyone at any moment. Is it time to bring back communications via pen and paper? At least someone must get out from behind a desk to intercept snail mail or dead drops.
Cynthia Murrell, March 13, 2025
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