FOGINT: Pavel Durov Responds to His Problems without Crisis PR Inputs
April 22, 2025
Before the US National Cyber Crime Conference, possibly significant news emerged about Telegram.
In my Telegram lecture at the NCCC 2025, I don’t talk about the psychological and financial impact Pavel Durov experienced as a result of his interaction with the French government. He was greeted at a Paris airport and detained. He talked with French officials. He hired Kaminski and his associates to represent him in the legal matter. Within a few weeks of his being confined to France, although not in St. Denis or Maison d’arrêt de Fleury-Mérogis, he seemed to be showing interest in providing some government authorities with Telegram “user names” or made-up handles and phone numbers (some real and some obtained through services providing temporary phone numbers). Mr. Durov, via indirect communication methods, seemed to indicate that he was doing what he had always done: Followed the rules of the jurisdictions in which Telegram operated. Then, without going to the French equivalent of a trial, Mr. Durov was allowed to return to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, one of the countries which has granted him citizenship.
Upon his return, he took some interesting actions:
- He began fiddling with some knobs and dials in order to get the TONcoin out of its doldrums
- He ramped up the marketing activities of the TON Foundation. (Please, keep in mind that Telegram and its proxy say they do not do marketing. The Telegram entities also do not do personnel or content control either.) Telegram and the Open Network Foundation (aka TON Foundation or ONF) are “there is no there there” or virtual outifts making do with coffee shop meetings, Telegram Messenger interactions, and maybe some face-to-face activity in a rented temporary space.)
- He started talking on CNN, for example.
From one of my team, I learned a couple of new “facts” this morning (April 22, 2025, 6 am US Eastern time). This individual reported:
Telegram has never shared private messages. The source is https://news.az/news/t-elegram-has-never-shared-private-messages-durov-says. Now there are two types of messages on Telegram Messenger. First, there are the default messages. These are encrypted from sender to the Telegram command-and-control system. There the messages are decrypted and processed. Then the messages are re-encrypted and forwarded to the recipient who opens them. The second type of message is the “secret” message which requires that the recipient be on Telegram when the sender creates and sends the message. That message is forwarded by the command-and-control system to the recipient. These “secret” messages remain encrypted for their digital journey. What Telegram shares with law enforcement is the IP address and the phone number of the sender. I will leave it to you to consider the “value” to Telegram’s command-and-control center of logging the metadata for messages and what happens when an investigator receives a bogus or temporary mobile number.,
A second item he shared with me this morning is that Pavel Durov continues to find himself at the edge of chaos with Russia. According to Meduza.io:
Russia slaps Telegram with another multi-million-ruble fine for refusing to take down ‘prohibited content’.
Several observations may be warranted:
- For a company that does not “do” marketing, Pavel Durov has been a busy and willing marketer on behalf of the Telegram operation. In fact, he seems to be sending out the message, “We cooperate with law enforcement.” Then he tries to make clear that he doesn’t reveal too much when Telegram cooperates with investigators.
- As a Russian citizen, Mr. Durov may want to [a] work with certain Russian officials to create the appearance of a problem with Russia in order to reduce the pressure from France or [b] Russia is acting independently to let Mr. Durov know he is a person of interest to the Kremlin. In short, which is it? Is Mr. Durov an asset for a certain country or is he a problem for a certain country in which some of his family and possibly some of his “core developers” reside? Uncomfortable either way I think.
- Telegram and its crypto play are not enjoying significant TONcoin upsides. The TONcoin is not the would-be high flier, Hamster Kombat home run it was prior to Mr. Durov’s arrest.
What’s clear is that Mr. Durov’s legal problems in France have been resolved. What is Mr. Durov’s relationship with the Russia’s government? Fuzzy stuff.
Net net: Mr. Durov’s recent actions appear to be signals that suggest Telegram is going to have to pull a rabbit from someone’s hoodie.
Stephen E Arnold, April 22, 2025
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