Modern Management Practices: Airline and Book Models
October 28, 2022
I know zero about running an airline. Wait. That’s not true. I know these outfits struggle to leave on time and handle baggage. I have heard that the computer systems used by US carriers are similar to those in use at the Internal Revenue Service. End of my info.
I read “American Airlines is Trying to Stop a Popular iPhone App That’s Become a ‘Must Have’ For its Flight Attendants.” The story caught my attention because an iPhone app has become an object of attention at an outfit unable to do what people expect it to do. Please, reference my comment about flying on time and the suitcases.
One flight attendant said of the current situation affecting Sequence Decoder that they had “never seen a company go out of their way to make life harder for their workers.”
The operative phrase “never seen a company go out of their way to make life harder for their workers” is memorable.
I would suggest that there is another company with some management challenges. “Exclusive: Amazon’s Attrition Costs $8 Billion Annually According to Leaked Documents And It Gets Worse” reports:
Amazon churns through workers at an astonishing rate, well above industry averages.
The write up continues:
The paper, published in January of 2022, states that the prior year’s data “indicates regretted attrition [represents] a low of 69.5% to a high of 81.3% across all levels (Tier 1 through Level 10 employees) suggesting a distinct retention issue.
Two big companies. Neither seems to be able to get in sync with their employees.
Let’s step back. I have a general sense that a number of organizations are unable to manage what I would call the basics; that is, understanding what employees need to do their jobs. On one hand, a software app which appears to improve scheduling strikes me as useful. Obviously the airline’s managers are terrified of software developed by an outsider and embraced by employees. The solution is to cancel it. Isn’t that a disconnect by what I assume are GenX and Millennial managers? Could dinobaby managers help resolve the issue? Of course not! Dinobabies, my goodness, no.
I have found that the online bookstore is less and less able to deliver “next day.” But I am a sample of one. The write up makes clear that one possible reason for the slippage and some of the practices of third party resellers are facilitated is due to — you guessed it — management failures. If the company were in touch with their employees, why have churn rates that are in the ballpark for streaming services consuming billions of dollars? In my opinion, we have an example of management taking a selfie and falling into a ravine.
Observations:
- Managers have to manage and deliver success. Ignoring employee needs is a questionable approach.
- Senior managers have to provide a framework for success. Exhibiting failure at scale suggests that these professionals are not managing in an effective manner from the point of view of the employees.
- Boards of directors have to provide a framework for the policies of the company. The incidents described in airline and bookstore cases suggests that these individuals are like vacationers: Kick back and enjoy the time.
My hunch is that remediating these issues will require more than attitude adjustment, a couple of TED Talks, and new technology. In fact, fixing the issues creating these two referenced case examples may be a job for the reprehensible dinobabies and their pre historic methods. Is this a popular notion? Nope.
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2022
OpenAI and The Evolution of Academic Cheating
October 28, 2022
Once considered too dangerous for public release, OpenAI’s text generator first ventured forth as a private beta. Now a version called Playground is available to everyone and is even free for the first three months (or the first 1,200,00 characters, whichever comes first). Leave it to the free market to breeze past considerations of misuse. We learn from Vice Motherboard that one key concern has materialized: “Students Are Using AI to Write Their Papers, Because Of Course They Are.” It did not take students long to realize this cheat slips right past plagiarism detecting software—because it is not technically plagiarism. Reporter Claire Woodcock writes:
“George Veletsianos, Canada Research Chair in Innovative Learning & Technology and associate professor at Royal Roads University says this is because the text generated by systems like OpenAI API are technically original outputs that are generated within a black box algorithm. ‘[The text] is not copied from somewhere else, it’s produced by a machine, so plagiarism checking software is not going to be able to detect it and it’s not able to pick it up because the text wasn’t copied from anywhere else,’ Veletsianos told Motherboard. ‘Without knowing how all these other plagiarism checking tools quite work and how they might be developed in the future, I don’t think that AI text can be detectable in that way.’ It’s unclear whether the companies behind the AI tools have the ability to detect or prevent students from using them to do their homework. OpenAI did not comment in time for publication.”
It was inevitable, really. One writing instructor quoted in the story recognizes today’s students can easily accumulate more knowledge than ever before. However, he laments losing the valuable process of gaining that knowledge through exploration if writing assignments become moot. The tutor has a point, but there is likely no turning back now. Perhaps there is a silver lining: academic institutions may finally be forced to teach like they exist in the 21st century. Students are already there. One cited only as innovate_rye states:
“I still do my homework on things I need to learn to pass, I just use AI to handle the things I don’t want to do or find meaningless. If AI is able to do my homework right now, what will the future look like? These questions excite me.”
That is one way to look at it. Perhaps the spirit of exploration is not dead, but rather evolving. The leaders of tomorrow will be pace setters.
Cynthia Murrell, October 28, 2022
Need a Spy? New Zealand Has Found a Resource
October 24, 2022
Israel’s armed and covert operatives are among the world’s most elite forces. It is not surprising when New Zealand’s government wanted to secretly spy and collect people’s data that they hired ex-Israeli operatives. Otago Daily explains whom New Zealand government tracked in the story: “Govt Enlists Ex-Israeli Spies To Covertly Collect Data.”
The New Zealand government, specifically the immigration department, hired Cobweb Technologies, a company formed by ex-Israeli spies. Meta (aka Facebook) kicked Cobwebs Technologies and six other foreign companies accused of creating fake accounts to spy on 50,000 people. The people spied on were journalists, politicians, human rights activists, and other persons of interest in over one hundred countries. The fake accounts also joined closed forums and communities to coerce members into sharing their private information.
Meta stated that Immigration NZ is only one of six countries that were Cobwebs Technologies’ customers. The department was a customer of the company for two years. Using social engineering, Cobweb Technologies uses its know-how to scan the Internet, mostly social media platforms, for targets’ public information.
New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment stated that Cobwebs Technologies’ acts were legal, controlled, and important:
They helped it meet its “legislative responsibilities”, in an undefined but “specific” area where there were active threats, the ministry told RNZ in its OIA response. Revealing more would “enable and embolden” groups overseas seeking to undermine it.
‘We are aware of activity overseas showing an intent (and ability) of such groups to do exactly this, specifically in response to the public release of information of the kind we are withholding, including tactically altering their behavior, increasing their operational security or deliberately injecting misinformation to reduce the effectiveness of collection methods. If even a moderate event in this particular area were to eventuate, the consequences for New Zealand could be significant and costly to fix,’ MBIE said.”
What exactly was New Zealand Immigration learning from Cobwebs Technologies? If it was about potential terrorist attacks on the country, then it was for national defense. If it was to spy on people who were not a threat, but did not agree with the country’s political agenda then it was a crime. How do you define each?
Whitney Grace, October 24, 2022
Characteristics of a Dinobaby
October 21, 2022
Someone called my attention to the Buzzfeed article “Millennial Managers Are Sharing Toxic Things Their Older Bosses Did That They Won’t Do To Employees, And I Relate To A Lot Of These.” The list of millennial management precepts makes it very clear why I am a relic. The 25 characteristics are interesting. The table below provides my dinobaby view of five of these statements about the cohorts now in the workplace.
|
Millennial Mgmt |
Dinobaby Approach |
| No micromanagement | Micromanage when warranted |
| Open communication | Sometimes |
| Rat on colleagues | Not this dinobaby |
| Ask staff for ideas and examples | Yes, dinobabies do this |
| Communicate what is needed to get promoted | Follow organization’s policies and procedures |
I cannot imagine how difficult it would be for this dinobaby to work with staff and managers who absolve themselves of the responsibility for knowing what the company expects, inculcating the organization’s policies and procedures in the work, and getting the best from each person. Eliminating managers and allowing employees to do their own thing is a recipe for disaster.
What if the organization has no rules of the road, is managed by a crazed genius, and lacks policies, procedures, and planning? Don’t take a full time job. Be a consultant and work on a short term contract. Avoid problem firms.
Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2022
Amazon: An Ecosystem in Which Some Bad Actors Thrive
October 6, 2022
Wow! Who knew? I must admit that I have developed what I call a “Hypothetical Ecommerce Crime Ecosystem.” Because I am an old, dinobaby, I have not shared my musings in this semi entertaining Web log. I do relatively few “public” talks. I am careful not to be “volunteered” for a local networking meet up like those organized by the somewhat ineffectual “chamber of commerce” in central Kentucky. Plus, I am never sure if those with whom I speak are “into” ecosystems of crime. Sure, last week I gave a couple of boring lectures to a few law enforcement, crime analysts, and government senior officials. But did the light bulbs flashing during and after my talk impair my vision. Nah.
I did read a write up which nibbles around the edges of my diagram for my hypothetical crime ecosystem. “There’s an Underground Market Where Secondhand Amazon Merchant Accounts Are Bought and Sold for Thousands of Dollars” asserts as 100 percent actual factual:
An Insider investigation revealed a thriving gray market for secondhand Amazon seller accounts. On Telegram and forums like Swapd and PlayerUp, thousands of brokers openly sell accounts, with prices ranging from a few hundred bucks for a new account to thousands of dollars apiece for years-old accounts with established histories. … The accounts sometimes steal random people’s identities to disguise themselves, and sellers are using these fake credentials to engage in questionable behavior on Amazon, Insider found — including selling counterfeit textbooks. The people’s whose names and addresses are being stolen are sometimes then sent hundreds of returns by unhappy customers.
Is there other possibly inappropriate activity on the Amazon giant bookstore? The write up says:
Merchants have used shady tactics like submitting false fraud reports targeting rivals, or bribing Amazon employees to scuttle competitors. Others peddle counterfeit or shoddily produced wares. Amazon bans fraudulent sellers, along with other accounts they’re suspected of owning, and blacklists their business name, physical location, and IP address.
Okay, but why?
My immediate reaction is money. May I offer a few speculations about such ecosystem centric behavior? You say, No. Too bad. Here are my opinions:
- Amazon does basic cost benefit analyses. The benefit is the amount of money Amazon gets to keep. The cost is the sum of the time, effort, and direct outflow of cash required to monitor and terminate what might be called the Silicon Valley way. (Yeah, I know Amazon like Microsoft is in some state in the US Northwest, but the spirit of the dudes and dudettes in Silicon Valley knows no geographic boundaries. Did you notice the “con” in “silicon.” Coincidence?
- Bad actors know a thriving ecosystem when they see one. Buy stolen products from a trusted third party, and who worries to much about where the person in the white van obtained them. Pay the driver, box ‘em up, and ship out those razors and other goods easily stolen from assorted brick-and-mortar stores in certain US locations; for example, the Walgreen’s in Tony Bennett’s favorite city.
- The foil of third party intermediaries makes it easy for everyone in the ecosystem to say, “Senator, thank you for the question. I do not know the details of our firm’s business relationship. I will obtain the information and send a report to your office.” When? Well, maybe struggling FedEx or the Senate’s internal mail system lost the report. Bummer. Just request another copy, rinse, and repeat. The method has worked for a couple of decades. Don’t fix it if the system is not broken.
What’s interesting about my “Hypothetical Ecommerce Crime Ecosystem” in my opinion is:
- Plausible deniability is baked in
- Those profiting from exploitation of the Amazon money rain forest have zero incentive or downside to leave the system as it is. Change costs money and — let’s face it — there have been zero significant downsides to the status quo for decades. Yep, decades.
- Enforcement resources are stretched at this time. Thus, what I call “soft fraud” is easier than ever to set up and embed in business processes.
Is the cited article correct? Sure, I believe everything I read online, including Amazon reviews of wireless headphones and cheap T shirts.
Is my analysis correct? I don’t know. I am probably wrong and I am too old, too worn out, too jaded to do much more than ask, “Is that product someone purchased on Amazon an original, unfenced item?”
Stephen E Arnold, October 6, 2022
Attention and Science: Rotating the Idea Seven Degrees
October 4, 2022
I read a BigThink article called “The Credibility of Science Is Damaged When Universities Brag about Themselves.” The basic premise of the article is fine: Attention is what matters today. The “why” is not explored, but it is characterized: Payoff.
I noted this statement in the article:
Scientists have always wanted to have their work noticed. That’s not new. However, when attention becomes currency, the ecosystem changes. And that changing ecosystem encompasses universities, academic publishing, and the way science is communicated to the public.
I am not comfortable with categorical affirmatives like “always.” I know from my work in online information and systems that the enabler of being noticed is content which is not intermediated by an institution, commercial enterprise, or government agency with a semi-reliable moral and ethical compass.
Scientists, like any other group of humanoids, get a kick out of the fame payoff. Some cannot cope and end up spending some time under special observation like Kurt Gödel or André Bloch. Others are content to chug along with some cocktail party ammunition tucked in their pockets.
A larger issue underlies the analysis of scientists chasing attention (adulation, prizes, lecture opportunities, etc.) The inherent function of online information is to disintermediate. Hasta la vista judgment, bureaucratic barriers, and traditional procedures.
How are those airline schedules matching up with the reality of getting from A to B? What about the functionality of the US health care system and the individuals who need treatment? Are those children graduating from grade school, high school, and college unable to read at their grade level mapping to job opportunities? You can think of your own examples.
My point is that the devaluation of science manifests itself in the “attention economy.” The driver, however, is online information.
Welcome to the online revolution. Remediation will be difficult, perhaps impossible. As “knowledge” is vaporized by the flows of online data, those responsible for the fixing up of science, basic service delivery, and certain American automobiles will be less well equipped than previous generations’ wizards.
The future is now. Log on, absorb TikToks, and surf Amazon… scientifically, of course. Maybe that seven degrees rotation is not reproducible. Some is not either.
Stephen E Arnold, October 4, 2022
Computer Security Procedures: Carelessness, Indifference, Poor Management or a Trifecta?
September 27, 2022
“$35M Fine for Morgan Stanley after Unencrypted, Unwiped Hard Drives Are Auctioned” raises an interesting question about security in an important company. The write up asserts:
The SEC action said that the improper disposal of thousands of hard drives starting in 2016 was part of an “extensive failure” over a five-year period to safeguard customers’ data as required by federal regulations. The agency said that the failures also included the improper disposal of hard drives and backup tapes when decommissioning servers in local branches. In all, the SEC said data for 15 million customers was exposed.
Morgan Stanley. Outstanding. If the story is accurate, the auctioning of the drives fits with the parsimonious nature of banks in my experience. Banks like to accept money; banks do not like to output money. Therefore, selling old stuff is a matter of removing the detritus, notifying the person charged with moving surplus to a vendor, and cashing the check for the end of life, zero life clutter. Standard operating procedure? Probably. Does senior management know about hardware security for old gear? My hunch is that most senior managers know about [a] cross selling, [b] sparking deals, [c] getting on a talking head financial news show, and [d] getting the biggest bonus possible. Security is well down my hypothetical list.
Net net: Security is easy to talk about. Security requires management know how and attention to business processes, not just deals and bonus payments.
Stephen E Arnold, September 27, 2022
The UK and EU Demonstrate an Inability to Be Googley
September 15, 2022
In the grand scheme of operating a revolving door, the Google is probably going to adjudicate and apologize / explain. I call this “explagize,” an art form perfected at the GOOG. But what’s a revolving door? Visualize a busy pre-Covid building in midtown Manhattan. To enter, one pushes a panel of glass and the force spins a wagon wheel of similar doors. Now imagine that one pays every time one goes around. That’s how the Google online ad business works? Banner adds, pay. Pay to play, pay. Pay for AdWords, caching. Want analytics about those ads? Pay. The conceptual revolving door, however, does not allow the humanoid to escape either without fear of missing out on a sale or allowing a competitor to get clicks and leads and sales.
The BBC article “Google Faces €25bn Legal Action in UK and the EU” states:
The European Commission and its UK equivalent are investigating whether Google’s dominance in the ad tech business gives it an unfair advantage over rivals and advertisers.
This is old news, right? What’s different is this statement:
Damien Geradin, of the Belgian law firm Geradin Partners – which is involved in the Dutch case – said, “Publishers, including local and national news media, who play a vital role in our society, have long been harmed by Google’s anti-competitive conduct. “It is time that Google owns up to its responsibilities and pays back the damages it has caused to this important industry. “That is why today we are announcing these actions across two jurisdictions to obtain compensation for EU and UK publishers.”
Do you think “pay back” means a painful procedure capped with a big number fine? I do.
What’s not being considered, in my opinion, are these factors:
- The barristers, avocets, and legal eagles trying to wrest big bucks from Googzilla are unlikely to find the alleged monopolist eager to retain their firms’ services or look favorably on hiring the progeny of these high fliers
- Will the UK and EU spark counter measures; for example, prices may rise and some ad services not offered to outfits in the UK and EU?
- Will the UK and EU grasp the fact that ad options may not be able to fill any gap or service pull out from the Google?
- The high value data which Google allegedly has and under some circumstances makes available to government authorities may go missing because Google either suffered a machine failure or curtailed investment in infrastructure so that the data are disappeared.
More than money? Yep. Consequences after decades of hand waving and chicken salad fines may cause some governments to realize that their power, influence, and degrees of freedom are constrained by a certain firm’s walled garden.
The money for the fine? Too little and too late as I try to make sense of the situation. The spinning revolving door can be difficult to escape and trying may cause dizziness, injury, or company death. Yikes.
Stephen E Arnold, September 15, 2022
Tech Torture: Email Clients
September 13, 2022
I read an amusing article called “A Microsoft User Raged against Outlook. Microsoft Lovers Fought Back.” The main idea for the article is that new go to source for real news — TikTok. The video in question presents one user of Microsoft’s Outlook email client. I vaguely recall using Outlook which would self destruct when a file exceeded the software’s mental capacity. Abandon ship! Yep, no more Outlook.
Here’s the article’s killer sentence for me:
The most poignant — and surely important — commentary came with these simple words: “Google is no better. I don’t know why none of them can work after this many years.”
The author of the write up asks an interesting question:
Could it be, in fact, that there’s a desperate need for a radical rethinking of our simplest, most important enterprise software, so that we can’t be twisting toward the Department of Doolally on a daily basis?
Why is some modern software almost impossible to use? I sat down this morning (September 11, 2022) and jotted down some reasons. You may not find my musing helpful, but — hey — that’s okay. IDC which is dinobaby speak for “I don’t care.” Here goes:
- As staff turnover, quiet quits, whatever, the replacements have to justify their “value” by changing one of more things.
- Mobile software development people have little or no appreciation for the value of interfaces which do not state change, respond to arbitrary gestures, or use incomprehensible icons rarely seen in the history of man, including cuneiform writing.
- Teams which really don’t care much about a product because the big bonuses come from the hot new thing keenly desired by management. As a result, spectacularly inept and just plain stupid ideas are implemented. The managers don’t use the product. The team members don’t use the product. The software developers don’t use the product or care much about managers or team members.
- Regression to the norm. Over time smart companies become stupid. Examples range from anti union actions in order to keep employees who believe that no one cares about them to a company yapping about racial diversity terminating a high profile minority female.
Why do people care about email clients? Maybe these individuals cannot function without digital crutches. My reaction to those who love or hate a piece of software: “Oh, poor baby.”
Stephen E Arnold, September 13, 2022
Facebook: A Tipping Point and Meta Math
September 2, 2022
I am not going to recycle the financial analysts’ reports about Facebook revenue and “profit.” Nor will I comment on Apple’s decapitation of certain Facebook money spinning. Instead I want to suggest that my research team and I have formulated the notion that Facebook is approaching or at its tipping point.
The evidence to support this fanciful idea is sparse, just two data points. After all, how quickly can a multi billion dollar dorm room dating app disappear when grandmas and grandpas use it to keep in touch with their middle aged “kids.” (Note that grandmas call their female friends “girls.” Amusing indeed.)
Let’s look at the two items of data, quickly of course because this is a free collection of blog posts without advertising or sponsorship. That’s not something one can say about other creators’ outputs.
First, navigate to this story: “Why is Instagram Dying? We Asked 100 Gen Z Users to Compare TikTok vs. Reels.” The write up reveals the results of semi Gen X/Millennial survey. It is pointless to comment about sample size, sample selection, and methodology. Let’s just look at a single finding from the report assuming the modern day math is sort of accurate.
The key bar indicates (without numbers, for sure) that TikTok has better algorithms. The finding, which I assume to be like other Internet-centric content, super accurate. Facebook is not doing numerical recipes in a tasty way.
But Facebook’s switchblade drone move is the chatter about charging users for access to what was a “free” service. As Jack Benny used to say, “Yipe.” “Meta’s Plans to Charge for Facebook and Instagram Could Be the Final Nail in Their Coffins” states:
With Instagram’s currently experiencing a low point due to some unwelcome features, offering a paid option could be the last straw for many, and cause them to move to other social platforms.
What’s the second factor? I have pointed out that the estimable Zuckster is happy to chatter away with a sticker sales professional. However, “Zuckerberg Targeted by House GOP Eager to Probe Hunter Biden” suggests that the Zuckster will have an opportunity to use his famous line “Congressperson, that you for that question. I am sorry I don’t have knowledge of the information. I will send the data you request to your office.” Will the elected officials welcome with enthusiasm an explanation from the highly regarded former liberal democrat leader from the UK to explain how alleged messages from an investigative body were understood by those really social Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram professionals? Dulcet tones may not be what the Congressional representatives want to hear, but who knows? Maybe the British politician can handle the annoying questioners from the Colony.
Will one and one equal three? One is TikTok and two is the opportunity to answer questions about a slippery political topic. My hunch is that the added value to reach three (a truly wonderful prime) is the ad revenue. If this tipping point is reached the one plus one may resolve to mysterious negative sum.
Worth watching. The Zuck is entertaining to observe from my vantage point in rural Kentucky. It will be instructive to watch how the math resolves at the Meta tipping point. The one plus one could result in a new magic number called the zuckup. One plus one equals a zuckup. I am not sure it will find much favor in some cohorts, particularly among TikTok users.
Stephen E Arnold, September 2, 2022
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