Apple: Curating with Care. What Are the Odds?
November 22, 2022
No one likes ads. They are a necessary evil to keep services free. Unfortunately, users are experiencing more ads than their desired content. Even worse, Apple has transformed its App Store into a giant ad scam hole. Ars Technica shares Apple users’ frustration about the latest iOS update: “Why The App Store’s Tone-Deaf Gambling Ads Make Me Worry About Apple.”
The newest iOS update included important security upgrades, bug fixes, and new features. The App Store’s ad services framework was also included in the upgrade, but instead of repairing problems, the store is now an obnoxious purveyor of irrelevant ads. The store is flooded with ads advertising gambling and get-rich-quick crypto scams. What is even worse is that these ads are playing next to games intended for kids.
Apple is aware of the problem and shut down the worst of the ads, but long-term problems are still an issue.
The bigger question is that Apple is no longer differentiating itself from its rivals. Unlike Microsoft, Facebook, and Google, Apple used to make most of its revenue from hardware sales. Its hardware sales are down, so Apple is compensated for the lower profit margins. It comes at the cost of users’ confidence that their Apple products protected their privacy more than others.
“That’s why Apple’s excursions into the ad business and the increased importance of the Services division to Apple’s continued growth worry me. Not because I think Apple’s products will become unusable or because I think the iPhone or Apple TV home screen is going to become dominated overnight by Roku-style half-page ads, but because I think that the pressure for Apple to degrade the experience for users and developers in the name of expanding its ad business will gradually increase as Apple tries to satisfy shareholders looking for perpetual growth.”
Apple is regarded as a high-quality product, a cut above a basic PC. The expensive price tag and the better privacy OS augments that reputation, but if Apple becomes more like its rivals it will not long per elitist. UGH!
Whitney Grace, November 22, 2022
Is This FTX Math?
November 21, 2022
I recall hearing or reading that the top dog of Aurora, the FTX affiliated entity, thought that running a crypto outfit required basic math skills. I read “FTX Owes more than $3 Billion to Top 50 Crypto Creditors.” The write up points out:
Roughly 1 million customers unable to withdraw funds from crypto currency exchange
Okay, let’s do some modern day basic math. Follow along:
- 50 kind hearted and understanding creditors
- $3 billion in US dollars or a suitable equivalent like Teslas or designer bags
- One Enron experienced super manager.
Now the math:
50 times $3 billion equals 20 years
I will get a middle school student to check my math. I may be off a few years with the prison sum.
Stephen E Arnold, November 21, 2022
Estonia and e-Residency
November 21, 2022
I have been to Estonia a couple of time. Once I visited in the summer. Another time I visited in February. Here’s a tip: “Leaves of Grass” weather is preferable in my opinion.
I mention Estonia because I noted a link to the Estonian government’s e-Residency information. You can find the basics at “Become and E-Resident.”
The main idea is that one can join Estonia’s digital nation. E-Residency is open to people from other countries. The idea is that the business would be “location independent” and the company would be an EU outfit.
The benefits include:
- Grow your business remotely
- Minimized bureaucracy (keep in mind that this is an EU company within a Baltic state with a Russian border)
- Joining an international community.
There are nominal fees, probably less than US$200, and a background checking process.
The idea is an interesting one. However, the e-Residency does not appear to include one of those “golden passports” available from some countries.
Are there downsides? A few, for example:
- Explaining to a US tax authority what’s going on
- Anticipating how the program will evolve; for example, laws passed in Estonia going forward
- Dealing with litigation in the US, EU, and elsewhere
- Resolving issues arising from payment to vendors and collecting money from customers.
If this approach to business appears attractive, check out the Estonia government’s Web site.
Stephen E Arnold, November 21, 2022
TikTok eCommerce: Will It Work in the US?
November 18, 2022
Douyin, TikTok’s predecessor and home-nation counterpart, made a very fruitful decision to emphasize e-commerce in 2020. As owner ByteDance sought to export that success via TikTok, however, the effort has been less lucrative. In an effort to understand why, Rest of World‘s Rui Ma takes a step back and examines “How TikTok Became and e-Commerce Juggernaut in China.” One key factor was live stream shopping events, an arena Douyin dominates despite entering a year after rival Kuaishou and several years after e-commerce titan Alibaba. The interloper chose to focus on brands themselves and smaller sellers instead of major influencers whose audiences could evaporate with a single PR blunder. Ma considers:
“So how does Douyin actually make money from livestreaming e-commerce? If you guessed ‘by commission,’ you would only be half-correct, as the platform actually charges very little — typically 1%–5% of sales value, depending on the category of goods being sold. The take rate is low, partly because of the stiffly competitive environment, and partly because this helps boost turnover as more sellers are encouraged to use the platform. But in order to succeed, most of those sellers will have to pay Douyin in other ways, via different forms of advertising. Sound familiar? That’s right — much like how Amazon sellers pay to show up in top search results, Douyin allows you to advertise your live stream in users’ feeds. TikTok has just one option for creators to have paid posts (straightforwardly called ‘Promote’). But Douyin has at least two more, targeted towards boosting the live streams of business accounts. Together, these are believed to be a significant revenue stream for Douyin, and presumably, still part of the playbook TikTok hopes to bring overseas. Since Douyin requires live stream e-commerce transactions to be completed on the platform instead of being redirected elsewhere, this all forms a ‘closed loop,’ where the user never strays from the app. It’s the ideal flywheel, and the envy of platform companies everywhere.”
Then there is Douyin Partners, an imitation of Alibaba’s Taobao program. Third-party partners will set up and operate a seller’s account, from advertising strategy to storefront to logistics. We are told ByteDance has not yet tried to insert Partners into TikTok. Why did step one, the livestreaming e-commerce approach, fail in Europe and the US? We are not sure, but it does not look like ByteDance is ready to throw in the global aspiration towel just yet. Stay tuned.
Cynthia Murrell, November 18, 2022
Post Pandemic Blues: Tablets and Chromebooks Struggle
November 17, 2022
Might smartphones make some devices irrelevant? We learn from The Register that “Tablet, Chromebook Shipments Come Crashing Down.” The article examines IDC’s report of third-quarter shipments. It states a mere 38.6 million tablets were shipped between July 01 and September 30, a decline of almost 9% since the previous year. Only Huawei grew its sales as demand escalated in China and Russia, where sanctions barred the way for Western tech. Writer Paul Kunert reports:
“Apple saw sales decline 1.1 percent to 14.5 million, according to IDC estimates. Samsung was down 4 percent to 7.1 million, Amazon fell 8.1 percent to 4.3 million, Lenovo shipments dropped 36.6 percent to 2.7 million, and Huawei grew 2 percent to 2.4 million. In its results filed late last week, Apple said iPad sales to end users were up 21 percent to $8.3 billion in Q4 of its fiscal ’22 ended 30 September despite supply constraints. IDC tracks sales into the channel, hence the difference in the figures. Chromebook shipments fell at a far faster rate, down 34.4 percent year-on-year to 4.3 million devices. This was the fifth straight decline for this sector of the PC industry. The downward trajectory began in the US, which accounted for 70 percent of global shipments. … IDC placed Acer as market leader with shipments of 1 million, albeit down 23.8 percent on a year ago. Dell shrank 19.9 percent to 900,000 units, HP was down 26.8 percent to 800,000, Lenovo plunged 54.8 percent to 700,000, and Samsung was down 37 percent to 300,000.”
Researchers point out Chromebook sales spiked during the pandemic as students connected from home, so its decline is simply a return to normal levels. As for the rest, a tough economy was likely at play. Apparently one can endure a slightly smaller small screen when fuel and groceries are difficult to afford.
Cynthia Murrell, November 17, 2022
Discovering Bunsha. Wow, the Past Can Provide Some Wisdom to Whiz Kids
November 15, 2022
In early 1992 I gave several lectures in Japan. At the Kansai Institute of Technology in Osaka, I learned about bunsha. I recall that one of the people from MITI attending my lecture mentioned the concept. A representative of Kinokuniya (the then giant of Japanese bookselling and information) arranged for a slim volume to be delivered to my hotel when I arrived in Tokyo for another lecture.
I received two slim volumes: Bunsha. Improving Your Business through Company Division and Bunsha. Company Division. What Good Is a Stuffed Tiger? After leaving Japan, I added a third book: To Expand We Divide. The Practice and Principles of Bunsha Management.
These books made a significant impression on me. The authors Kuniyasu Sakai and Hiroshi Sekiyama, along with translator David Russell, explained how to avoid the management pitfalls of becoming too big. Teams can be too big. Companies can be too big. When big happens, some employees are stifled and leave the company.
The basic idea is to create smaller units and when an employee has a desire to start a company, give that employee an opportunity to do that new thing within the existing company. A brief summary does not do justice to the ideas in these three slim volumes.
The idea of bunsha had a significant impact on how I viewed certain types of management challenges. I suppose one could say, “That’s just common sense.” I am not so sure because these books codified the idea of bunsha and provided examples about the principles. Shortcomings and benefits are explained.
I read “Split Your Overwhelmed Teams: Two Teams of Five Is Not the Same as One Team of Ten.” (If the link goes dead, you have another example of knowledge erosion. A perfect example of our current management plight.) My immediate reaction was that the idea of bunsha is not familiar to the author. As I reflected on the essay, I realized that most people don’t know about bunsha and if they heard about the concept, the reaction was that it was irrelevant.
Several observations seem to be warranted:
- Information about important management ideas is not diffusing. The disheartening failures of management at technology companies essential to economic performance illustrate what happens when big fails.
- Japan itself has overlooked the importance of bunsha. The disappointing trajectory of well known Japanese high technology companies provides a number of examples. Hello, Toshiba.
- Management consultants — at least the ones I have encountered in the last 20 years — know how to gather data, cut expenses, and get their bonuses. I am not sure these individuals or some of their mentors know about bunsha.
May I suggest that a greater familiarity with bunsha will pay knowledge dividends. The books are short and are, therefore, suited to the TikTok and Instagram generation. For those older, bunsha may be too little, too late. Rediscovering ideas from a half century ago illustrates the peculiar narrowness of the Googlized information.
Stephen E Arnold, November 16, 2022
Google Did What? Misleading Users? Google!
November 15, 2022
In the midst of an economic downturn, most businesses try to avoid: [a] bad publicity regarding a sensitive issue and [b] paying lots of cash to US states. I suppose I could add [c] buying Twitter and [d] funding the metaverse, but let’s stick to the information in “Google Will Pay $392m to 40 States in Largest Ever US Privacy Settlement.”
For a big outfit like the Google my thought is that the negative publicity is more painful than writing checks. But advertisers are affected by the economic downturn and may be looking for ways to make sales without cutting deals with companies found guilt of user/customer surveillance.
The write up, which I assume is mostly on the money, says:
The states’ investigation was sparked by a 2018 Associated Press story, which found that Google continued to track people’s location data even after they opted out of such tracking by disabling a feature the company called “location history”.
The article points out:
It [the penalty] comes at a time of mounting unease over privacy and surveillance by tech companies that has drawn growing outrage from politicians and scrutiny by regulators.
Free services are great as long as users/customers don’t know exactly what’s happening. In the early days of the Google, there was not a generation interested in dinobaby ideas. Well, this decision suggests that some dinobabies with law degrees expect commercial enterprises to act with some sense of propriety.
The article makes clear exactly what Google did:
The attorneys general said Google misled users about its location tracking practices since at least 2014, violating state consumer protection laws. As part of the settlement, Google also agreed to make those practices more transparent to users. That includes showing them more information when they turn location account settings on and off and keeping a webpage that gives users information about the data Google collects.
Hmmm. What about targeted ads which miss their targets? Perhaps that’s an issue which will capture the attention of US attorneys general? Perhaps, but I am not optimistic. Awareness and subsequent legal processes move slowly, and slow is the friend of some firms.
Stephen E Arnold, November 15, 2022
Google Hangouts Hung Up and Out
November 15, 2022
We have been hearing for years that Google Hangouts was being shuttered. Maybe. Sort of. Now Engadget reports, “Google Hangouts Is Well and Truly Dead.” Writer Mariella Moon tells us:
“Google has laid Hangouts to rest, a couple of years after it first announced that it was going to push people to use Chat, its Slack-like app, instead. After allowing users to move to Chat on their own in 2021, Google phased out the Hangouts Chat app for Android and iOS in July. Users were shown a prompt telling them that ‘Hangouts has been replaced by Google Chat’ and to switch to either the standalone Chat app or the Chat experience within Gmail. As TechCrunch notes, the last version of the messaging service, Hangouts for the web, is now also going away for good. When users access the Hangouts website, they might see a message that says: ‘Starting November 1, 2022, Hangouts on the web will redirect to Chat on Web. We recommend moving to Chat now.’ We can still access the website without being automatically redirected, but there’s a link to Google Chat that we can click to load the new messaging experience. The website might completely disappear in the coming days.”
Google Chat boasts collaboration features that Hangouts lacks, and it was a paid offering when Google first planned the shift. Chat is now a free tool that integrates with Gmail. For any users who have not yet saved their Hangouts data, there may still be time to do so with Google’s Takeout tool.
Cynthia Murrell, November 14, 2022
Simplifying the Geometry of Conscience
November 14, 2022
My first brush with crypto currency was a request to include the topic in a lecture for an outfit running international training programs for law enforcement and intelligence professionals. In 2013, I was in my first year of retirement and interested in what I called CyberOSINT. My definition of the term pivoted on the companies providing tools and software to deal with was grouped under the category of cyber crime. A decade ago, cyber crime was big, but it was propelled by what now seems to have been bad actor minnows.
The hot topics were the Dark Web, forums offering tips and tricks for hacking, and CSAM (child sexual abuse material). Digital currency, specifically Bitcoin, was the lubricant for cyber crime. Therefore, my team and I had no choice but take a look at the Nakamoto white paper, poke into the universities in England beavering away on techniques to deanonymize individual transactions, and the early research efforts of everyone’s favorite online bookstore Amazon. We attended meet ups about digital currency and spoke with seemingly well meaning people who were excited about doing money things without annoying intermediaries and regulatory authorities.
It became clear at least to me and my team that digital currency would become a replacement for paper and coin currencies because [a] money costs a lot to produce, manage, and make counterfeit resistant and [b] values could be whipped up using the juices that bad actors, money launderers, and financial “innovators” have pumping through their veins.
Today digital currencies have become a big financial play. It works… for a while. Then like the tragedy of the commons, the open green field is trashed. I thought about the current big time mess a whiz kid has created. The scale of the fraud makes those early players look less like minnows and more like clueless paramecia with math skills. “Sam Bankman-Fried and the Geometry of Conscience” is an interesting essay. However, it is difficult for a simple and somewhat dull person like myself to understand.
The write up says (and I urge you to read the complete 1,400 word essay. I want to cite one passage, if I may:
On reflection, maybe I’d just try to convince SBF to weight money logarithmically when calculating expected utility (as in the Kelly criterion), to forsake the linear weighting that SBF explicitly advocated and that he seems to have put into practice in his crypto ventures. Or if not logarithmic weighing, then at least some concave utility function—something that makes, let’s say, a mere $1 billion in hand seem better than $15 billion that has a 50% probability of vanishing and leaving you, your customers, your employees, and the entire Effective Altruism community with less than nothing.
Interesting, right.
Here’s my take. The SBF innovator attended MIT. In theory, he was exposed to MIT thinking, which as you may recall, involved taking money from everyone’s favorite poster child for questionable behavior Jeffrey Epstein. Several questions:
- What’s up with an MIT education and inculcation of such quaint concepts as moral behavior?
- Why are individuals willing and able to commit financial fraud when it is comparatively easy to deanonymize some crypto activities?
- Do we need big thoughts like “linear and concave utilities” to explain criminal behavior?
My take. Effective altruism is word salad. Say crypto to me I think of cyber crime. End of story. No Hopf fibration or wordsmithing needed, thank you very much.
Stephen E Arnold, November 14, 2022
Amazon: The Bezos Bulldozer Shoves Customers and Crushes Competitors
November 11, 2022
The myth of the enlightened technology company led by an ethical, socially-minded leadership team seems to be dissipating like fog in a Kentucky hollow on a spring morning. Whether it was the craziness of blue and gray checks on Twitter or the public confessions of the Zuck, there is mounting evidence that knowledge of programming does not translate into effective management. In our nifty money centric country, money means brilliance, leadership skills, wisdom, and a quantum link to JP Morgan, Jay Gould, Andrew Carnegie, et al.
I want to shift from the public chaos to an interesting article from a Silicon Valley type of “real” news outfit. The article which caught my attention is “Basically Everything on Amazon Has Become an Ad.” The write up reveals that Amazon is not an old-fashioned Sears catalog. Nope, Amazon is a more expensive variant of eBay. I noted:
Amazon has designs to boost its ad business to new heights by selling more video commercials on Amazon properties like the video game livestreaming service Twitch and during live sporting events streamed on Prime Video; and by offering audio ads on Amazon Music. The company has also invested heavily in in-house software tools that allow brands to purchase highly targeted ads around the web.
The write up then misses what I think is the main thrust of the Bezos bulldozer. The article states:
Amazon has become a power player in yet another industry, adding advertising to a list that already includes e-commerce, logistics, entertainment, cloud computing, and voice assistants.
Sort of like other close-enough-for-horseshoes’ analysis.
The direction at Amazon is institutionalizing dark patterns. Users/customers think one thing, and the company is moving them like cattle in a Chicago stock yard to the meat packing plant.
Advertising is manipulative communication. Consider these methods at Amazon:
- Complex pricing mechanisms within AWS
- Lack of transparency about the data flowing into its commercial database business
- Functionality provided to certain government agencies within the Amazon Government regions and clouds
- Functionality within “free” music designed to create a need for a more expensive version of the service so users can create playlists.
There are other dark patterns as well. (I won’t mention the security mechanism for certain AWS cloud services which are extra cost options, not the default.)
Net net: More attention may be warranted by regulatory entities in the US and other countries. The Bezos bulldozer is reshaping landscapes, and everyone thinks that these “developments” are good for everyone. How many rabbits and squirrels are crushed by the Bezos bulldozers each day? Give up. The answer is a lot. Who wants to give up the one-click service, the subscription to common products, and the mythical one-day delivery?
Stephen E Arnold, November 11, 2022
-
- Subscribe to Beyond Search
Feature archive
News archive
-
