Loving Tablets and Chromebooks: Sure, Like Going to the Dentist
December 29, 2022
Might smartphones make some devices irrelevant? We learn from The Register that “Tablet, Chromebook Shipments Come Crashing Down.” The article examines IDC’s report of third-quarter shipments. It states a mere 38.6 million tablets were shipped between July 01 and September 30, a decline of almost 9% since the previous year. Only Huawei grew its sales as demand escalated in China and Russia, where sanctions barred the way for Western tech. Writer Paul Kunert reports:
“Apple saw sales decline 1.1 percent to 14.5 million, according to IDC estimates. Samsung was down 4 percent to 7.1 million, Amazon fell 8.1 percent to 4.3 million, Lenovo shipments dropped 36.6 percent to 2.7 million, and Huawei grew 2 percent to 2.4 million. In its results filed late last week, Apple said iPad sales to end users were up 21 percent to $8.3 billion in Q4 of its fiscal ’22 ended 30 September despite supply constraints. IDC tracks sales into the channel, hence the difference in the figures. Chromebook shipments fell at a far faster rate, down 34.4 percent year-on-year to 4.3 million devices. This was the fifth straight decline for this sector of the PC industry. The downward trajectory began in the US, which accounted for 70 percent of global shipments. … IDC placed Acer as market leader with shipments of 1 million, albeit down 23.8 percent on a year ago. Dell shrank 19.9 percent to 900,000 units, HP was down 26.8 percent to 800,000, Lenovo plunged 54.8 percent to 700,000, and Samsung was down 37 percent to 300,000.”
Researchers point out Chromebook sales spiked during the pandemic as students connected from home, so its decline is simply a return to normal levels. As for the rest, a tough economy was likely at play. Apparently one can endure a slightly smaller small screen when fuel and groceries are difficult to afford.
The Arnold IT team has a different set of conclusions:
- Tablets and Chromebooks are like wearing clothing two sizes to small. Think discomfort.
- The promoters of tablets and Chromebooks are likely to use laptops to do “real” work.
- Tablets and Chromebooks make routine tasks difficult; for example, keeping an Internet connection in Buenos Aires during the World Cup Parade and finding a dongle in Hermanus.
Money and power allow some outfits to sell unusual stuff. Why not advertise these products on cable at 3 am?
Cynthia Murrell, December 29, 2022
Meta: Big Numbers, Bigger Problem
December 22, 2022
The European Union has been fiddling around with modest fines on outfits like Meta (the Zuckbook to the Arnold IT research team). Now the scale of fines is ratcheting up. “Meta Faces $1.6bn Lawsuit over Facebook Posts Inciting Violence in Tigray War” reports that Kenya is pegging the fine in nine figure territory. Will the Zuckbook write a check for more than $1 billion. Probably not.
The write up states as real news:
The lawsuit, filed in the high court of Kenya, where Meta’s sub-Saharan African operations are based, alleges that Facebook’s recommendations systems amplified hateful and violent posts in the context of the war in northern Ethiopia, which raged for two years until a ceasefire was agreed in early November. The lawsuit seeks the creation of a $1.6bn (£1.3bn) fund for victims of hate speech. One of the petitioners said his father, an Ethiopian academic, was targeted with racist messages before his murder in November 2021, and that Facebook did not remove the posts despite complaints.
What’s interesting is that the lawsuit puts a price penalty for the alleged action or inaction of the Zuckbook. Thus, when harm to individuals can be linked to an online action, the Kenya lawsuit means that other governments may set similar targets.
Net net: It may be expensive to implement the Silicon Valley, high technology “we want to bring people together and do good” under the umbrella of move fast and break things. The fines could, despite the Zuckbook’s revenue prowess, break the bank.
How long has the Zuckbook been using its methods for its advantage? A decade or more? Kenya may be taking steps to make the Zuck wish his company could go back in time and approach the company’s behavior in a slightly different way. If the Zuckbook wins, the Zuckbook may go full speed ahead and become even more frisky: TikTok-type videos on steroids, amped up data collection, and creating a super app designed to make bad actors drool. Disappearing messages. What’s not to like?
Stephen E Arnold, December 22, 2022
Ready for the Holidays, Facebookers and Googlers?
December 22, 2022
Despite an ongoing worker shortage, this economic downturn is proving to be bad for some folks’ job security. Business Insider: India reports, “Meta, Google Put Employees on ‘Notice Periods’ to Find New Role or Leave.” The write-up tells us:
“Facebook’s parent company Meta and Google are reducing staff to cut costs amid the economic downturn, apparently putting some of them on traditional 30 to 60 days ‘lists’ to find a new role within the company or leave. Meta plans to cut costs by at least 10 per cent in the coming months and has put out more and more workers whose jobs are being eliminated on its traditional ’30-day list,’ reports Wall Street Journal. On the other hand, Google’s parent Alphabet has reportedly deployed a similar approach, typically giving workers 60 days in which to apply for a new role if their jobs are set to be cut. ‘Facebook parent is looking to reduce costs by at least 10 per cent, people familiar with the plans said, while Google has required some employees to apply for new jobs,’ the report mentioned. …Last month, Google fired more than 50 workers at its incubator Area 120 and gave them extra 30 days to find another job at the company.”
A Google spokesperson assures us most of those folks were able to shift into another position. It is no coincidence the company has also suspended new hires while warning that any employee whose work is not up to snuff may find themselves out of a job. We also learn:
“In a company message viewed by Insider, Google Cloud sales leadership has threatened employees with an ‘overall examination of sales productivity and productivity in general’ and that if next quarter results ‘don’t look up, there will be blood on the streets’.”
Yikes. So much for Google being the most nurturing workplace around. As for the Meta-book, Zuckerberg has said the company plans to steadily reduce its payroll over the next year. But never fear. Whatever the fate of other workers, we suspect both Meta and Alphabet will protect their top executives’ lucrative positions. Which company is next? Salesforce perchance?
Cynthia Murrell, December 22, 2022
A Cheerful Look at Year End 2022 and Most of 2023
December 9, 2022
Year end and the New Year approach. It is time for reflection and prediction. I noted this Silicon Valley-esque real news write up titled “Tech Kept Talent Happy Doling Out Stock During the Boom. It’s Screwing Investors in the Bust.”
I circled this interesting chunk of prose:
In a period where investors are focused on profitability over growth, such retention and hiring efforts begin to look costly. Shareholders are still paying for the existing stock grants and now they’re going to pay for new grants…
Ah, ha. Presumably none of the high tech sector watchers noticed this?
Maybe in the midst of the 1998 downturn? What about 2008? And now stock based compensation is news.
What does this mean for 2022? Maybe a bit of gloom? And what about 2023? My thought is that MBAs and accountants will be beavering away in the grips of spreadsheet fever to make life better for themselves. I wonder if these folks keep their business school ethics lecture notes close at hand?
Stephen E Arnold, December 9, 2022
Alphabet, an Investor Is Grousing. Will That Person Be Assuaged?
December 7, 2022
Google’s parent company Alphabet is a multi-billion dollar corporation. Like any large corporation, it probably carries way too much fat, i.e. the books do not balance and it is because of the human ego. Google is a hot mess when it comes to human relations, but an activist investor believes Alphabet is a financial fiasco as well: “Investor Tells Google: Cut Costs Now And Stop Paying Staff So Much.”
TCI Fund Management is an activist investing firm and they suggested that Alphabet cut costs at the search engine giant. During the pandemic, Google had a hiring spree and TCI says the company now has too many employees and they are all too expensive. Google pays its employees 67% more than Microsoft people and 152% more than the top twenty US technology companies.
Alphabet’s profits are down to $13.91 billion compared to $18.936 billion in 2021. Alphabet is reviewing all its other companies. Some are doing well, while others like the Best Bets division are not. TCI Fund Management said Alphabet is not serving the shareholders:
“Alphabet’s ability to pursue M&A is limited due to ‘regulatory scrutiny’ so it should follow Apple’s capital allocation strategy and become “cash neutral over time through increased share repurchases.’ The group’s stock price is down 34 percent in the year to date, the share price is ‘cheap’ and buybacks could take advantage of this, TCI said.
It concluded: ‘In the era of slower revenue growth, aggressive cost management is essential. We look forward to your announcement in a clear action plan as a matter of urgency.’”
Google is not too big to fail, because tech geeks have huge egos and could run the company into the ground if they are not careful. Alphabet will probably ignore TCI’s suggestions, unless a former Google came up with them.
Whitney Grace, December 7, 2022
Cheap Training for Machine Learning Is Not Hyped Enough. Believe It or Not
December 6, 2022
I read an interesting article titled “Counting the Cost of Training Large Language Models.” The write up contains a statement which provides insight into the type of blind spots that plague whiz bang smart software companies. Here’s the statement which struck me as amusing and revelatory:
It has been becoming increasingly clear – anecdotally at least – just how expensive it is to train large language models and recommender systems…
Two points. Anyone who took the time to ask about the cost of retraining a Bayesian and neurolinguistic system from the late 1990s would have learned: [a] Smart software, even relatively simple implementations, require refined and curated training data before a system is deployed. This work is tedious and requires subject matter specialists. Then there is testing and fiddling knobs and dials before the software becomes operational. [b] The smart software requires retraining with updated data sets, calibration, and testing on a heartbeat. For some Autonomy plc type systems, the retraining could be necessary every 180 days or when “drift” became evident. Users complain, and that’s how one knows the system is lost in the tiny nooks and crannies of lots of infinitesimals adding up to a dust pile in a dark corner of a complex system.
After three decades of information available about the costs of human centric involvement in making smart software less stupid, one would think that the whiz kids would have done some homework. Oh, right. If the information is not in the first 15 items in a Google search result, there are no data. Very modern.
The write up identifies a number of companies with ways to chop down training costs. To be clear, the driving idea for Snorkel from the Stanford AI Lab is reducing the costs of building training sets. The goal is to be “close enough for horseshoes” or “good enough.” Cut the costs and deal with issues with some software wrappers. Package up the good enough training data and one has a way to corner the market for certain ML applications. But it’s not just the Google. Amazon AWS is in the hunt for this off-the-shelf approach to machine learning. I think of it as the 7-11 approach to getting a meal: Cheap, quick, and followed by a Big Gulp.
The write up has a number of charts. These are okay, but I am not sure about the provenance of the data presented. But that’s just my skepticism for content marketing type write ups. There are even “cost per one million parameters” data. Interesting but who compiled the data, what methods were used to generate the numbers, and who vetted the project itself? Annoying questions? Sure. Important? Not to true believers.
But I know the well educated, well informed funding sources and procurement officials will love this conclusion:
some people will rent to train, and then as they need to train more and also train larger models, the economics will compel them to buy.
Yep, but what about the issue of “close enough for horseshoes”? Yep, here’s another annoying question: Is this article the kick off for another hype campaign? My initial reaction is, “Yes.”
Stephen E Arnold, December 2022
Apple Factoid or Why a US Company Shows Affection for Pandas (Digital and Furry)
December 6, 2022
I spotted an article with a killer title: “Apple Reaches Highest Ever Monthly Market Share in China.” What’s the factoid? The write up provides what may be a semi credible factoid:
One in every four devices sold in China during October 2022 was an iPhone.
Here’s a passage from the write up I found intriguing:
Apple has been reaching new heights in terms of market share in China during the last two years. It reached a record monthly market share in November and December 2020, and in October, November and December 2021. Notably, 2020 was also the year when US sanctions were imposed on Huawei.
The article provides no information about why a US company is thriving in an environment of restrictions on certain Chinese-US interactions. Perhaps there is information to be found, but it is not in reports of what appear to be significant sales by a US firm in the Middle Kingdom.
Stephen E Arnold, December 6, 2022
FTX: What Does B Stand For?
December 2, 2022
I am not a krypto kiddie. After the mysterious Nakamoto white paper became available, I made an informed judgment: Bad actors will love this crypto thing. My hunch was correct. The meltdown of a crypto wizard and his merry band of tea totaling worker bees have demonstrated that cyber fraud can be entertaining.
I read “Does B Stand for Bankman-Fried or Bankruptcy?” The write up asks a simple question. I noted this passage from the “real” Silicon Valley write up:
SBF said FTX failed on risk management and he didn’t “knowingly co-mingle funds.”
There you go.
Now what does B stand for? Here are my suggestions:
bamboozle – to rip off, fool, or deceive
bane – a source or ruin, harm, or evil
baseborn – a nice way to question one’s family position in society
bebotherer – one who brings trouble
besotted – drunk and incoherent
bonkers — a few cans short of a six pack
brock—a nasty, little, furred creature
I am leaning toward bamboozle but I think brock has a certain charm. Perhaps a combo; to wit:
The brock bamboozled himself and others.
Close enough for horseshoes as the “we’re not talking” analytics folks like to say among friends at lunch.
Stephen E Arnold, December 2, 2022
Why Did Smart People Fall For The FTX Scam? Uh, Maybe Greed?
November 29, 2022
When we hear how people fall for scams, we tell ourselves that we are too smart and will never become a victim of one. Despite our intelligence, we all become scam victims at some point in our lives. Hopefully, the aftermath is no more devastating than broken pride and a well-learned lesson. Unfortunately, investors in the FTX crypto currency have lost everything like people in the 1930s Depression. The Guardian expresses why FTX lured so many people: “Why Were So Many Smart People So Dumb About FTX? Did They Seriously Just Like Sam Bankman-Fried’s Vibe?”
Area Mahdawi wrote the editorial about crypto currencies and she immediately rips into Sam Bankman-Fried’s unprofessionalism. The FTX inventor played videogames during business meetings. That does not inspire confidence. Large investors threw money at him and he was described as the “next Warren Buffett” and it was believed he could become the world’s first trillionaire.
Behind the proverbial curtain, Bankman-Fried was pulling a typical scam: shifting funds from FTX to his other company, Alameda Research. He then made risky risky trades and lost billions! His net worth fell from $16.2 billion to $3. Bankman-Fried lived a luxurious life a lá Anna Delvey in the Bahamas with his nine employees and they all had various romantic relationships with each other.
Mahdawi thinks people fell for Bankman-Fried for two reasons:
- They didn’t understand what he was selling, so that meant he was a genius.
- They liked his charisma.
Some investors were impressed that Bankman-Fried played videogames during meetings. Why? Maybe he conveyed an autistic savant vibe that appeared he could crunch the numbers and do magic tricks. Mahdawi said this would not have happened to other people, especially women:
“I don’t know about you, but I’m having one of those want-to-tear-my-hair-out-with-frustration moments right now. Can you imagine a woman playing video games in a meeting and being handed billions by investors? That would never happen. Last year, female founders secured only 2% of venture capital in the US and I’ll bet you everything I have that those founders were as buttoned-up as you can get. I’ll bet you they didn’t get a billion dollars because people “just liked their vibe”.”
She’s right, but also wrong. It depends on the person handing out the loans and the office politics. As to why the people invested their money with the scam artist, they wanted to make more money. Chalk it up to simple greed. Greed is good too.
Whitey Grace, November 30, 2022
The Collision of Nation State Bias and High School Science Club Management
November 28, 2022
CNN offered some interesting pictures of the labor management misunderstanding in Zhengzhou, China. Even though I have been to China several times, I was not sure what made Zengzhou different from other “informed” cities struggling with what may be an ill-advised approach to Covid. In fact, the images of law enforcement and disgruntled individuals are not particularly unique. These images are more interesting when a blurry background of Apple and a Taiwanese company add a touch of chiaroscuro to the scenes.
What is interesting is that “Apple Has a Huge Problem with an iPhone Factory in China” mentions the “Taiwan contract manufacturing firm Foxconn.” CNN, however, does not offer any information about the involvement of individuals who want to create issues for Foxconn. China and Taiwan sort of coexist, but I am not certain that the Chinese provincial government either in Henan or the national government in Beijing are particularly concerned about what happens to either Apple of Foxconn.
The fact that workers suddenly became upset suggests that I have to exercise a willing suspension of disbelief and assume the dust up was spontaneous. Sorry, a “Hey, this just happened because of pay” or some similar dismissive comment won’t make me feel warm and fuzzy.
The write up asserts:
The Zhengzhou campus has been grappling with a Covid outbreak since mid-October that caused panic among its workers. Videos of people leaving Zhengzhou on foot went viral on Chinese social media in early November, forcing Foxconn to step up measures to get its staff back…. But on Tuesday [November 22, 2022] night, hundreds of workers, mostly new hires, began to protest against the terms of the payment packages offered to them and also about their living conditions. Scenes turned increasingly violent into the next day as workers clashed with a large number of security forces. By Wednesday [November 23] evening, the crowds had quieted, with protesters returning to their dormitories on the Foxconn campus after the company offered to pay the newly recruited workers 10,000 yuan ($1,400), or roughly two months of wages, to quit and leave the site altogether.
Seems straightforward. A confluence of issues culminated in a protest.
Now let’s think about the issue this way. These are my working hypotheses.
First, Foxconn may not perceive the complaints of its employees as important. Sure, the factory workers have to do their job, but these are Chinese factory workers. Foxconn has a Taiwan spin. This may translate into Chinese government passivity. Let the Taiwan managers deal with the problems.
Second, Apple is a US outfit and it embraces some of the tenets of the high school science club management method. The kernel of the HSSCMM is that science club members know best. Others do not; therefore, if something is not on the radar of the science club, that “something” is irrelevant, silly, or just plain annoying.
Third, the workers have some awareness of the financial resources of Foxconn and Apple. Thus, like workers from an Apple store to the quiet halls of the Apple core spaceship, money talks.
Fourth, Covid. Yep, not going away it seems.
What happens when China is not too interested in Foxconn, Foxconn is not too interested in Chinese workers, and Apple is busy inventing ways to prevent people from upgrading the Mac computers?
That’s what CNN understands. Protests, clashes, and violence. Toss in some Covid fear and one has the exciting story for consumers of CNN “real” news.
Is there are fix? For China and its attitude to Taiwanese businesses which allegedly exploit Chinese workers, sure. I won’t explore that solution. For Foxconn, sure, but it will take time for Foxconn to de-China its production operations. For Apple, not really. The company will follow the logic of the science club: Find some people who will work for less.
Net net: Apple and its HSSCMM will probably not find too many fans in the Middle Kingdom. And Foxconn? Do China and Apple care? Apple cares about money. China cares about the Middle Kingdom. Foxconn cares about what? Building plants in the US… soon?
Stephen E Arnold, November 28, 2022
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