IBM Watsonizes Blockchain: Cash Sinkhole Grows
February 2, 2021
IBM had big plans to regain its position as the champion of the digital world wide mud wrestling competition. We know that mainframes generate revenue. We know that IBM’s cloud is at least in the game. We know that the cognitive computing marketing hoo hah Watson thing has struggled to climb in the ring. Now we know that the IBM blockchain superstar made it in the ring but tripped over a rope and plunged to the mat. Yep, dazed and confused before landing a punch.
If the information in “IBM Blockchain Is a Shell of Its Former Self After Revenue Misses, Job Cuts: Sources” is accurate, that’s the pickle on top of the IBM disaster burger. The write up asserts from unnamed sources of course:
BM has cut its blockchain team down to almost nothing, according to four people familiar with the situation. Job losses at IBM escalated as the company failed to meet its revenue targets for the once-fêted technology by 90% this year, according to one of the sources. “IBM is doing a major reorganization,” said a source at a startup that has been interviewing former IBM blockchain staffers. “There is not really going to be a blockchain team any longer. Most of the blockchain people at IBM have left.”
The write up noted:
In its recent full-year results statement, IBM as a whole reported revenue fell 6% on an annualized basis. Looking back to its 2017 financial statement, IBM called itself the “blockchain leader for business.” All mention of the technology is now absent from the company’s statements.
IBM, steeped in cognitive computing technology and confidence replied:
“IBM maintains a strong team dedicated to blockchain across the company. We have shifted some resources but remain committed to the technology, blockchain ecosystem and services. We see blockchain as a driver for our cloud business.”
Good to know. What’s Watson say?
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2021
IBM: Watson, What Is Going On?
January 27, 2021
I want to keep this brief. IBM is a company anchored in the past, and its management is demonstrating that agility, pivoting, buzzwords, and sci-fi technology are not working in the money department. “International Business Machines : IBM Shares Are an Anomaly in a Hot Tech Sector” like hearing Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” in a karaoke bar in Osaka.
Does this sound familiar? It seems as if Market Screener is recycling boilerplate:
The simple answer for IBM’s stock performance? It hasn’t delivered the growth expected of technology companies. Although IBM snapped a 22-quarter streak of falling sales in January 2018, briefly reviving some investors’ hopes for a successful turnaround, it has largely failed to post strong results since then, trailing behind rivals like Amazon and Microsoft in the cloud computing business.
Is it fair to compare IBM with Amazon, Google, or any other digital dervish? No. A more apt comparison should be drawn with other companies anchored in adding machines and mainframes.
If we ask Watson, what do we get?
Answer: A link to a news item about Watson winning jeopardy. Interesting but not what the stakeholders need.
Stephen E Arnold, January 27, 2021
Smart Software: Definitely More Exciting than a COBOL Accounting System
January 26, 2021
I found “A Closer Look at the AI Incident Database of Machine Learning Failures” for the jejune write up contains pointers to some useful resources: Resource which remind one that software mostly functions in ways which confound users.
The article contains an interesting statement from a smart software expert. Here’s the passage I found interesting. The “McGregor” is Sean McGregor, lead technical consultant for the IBM Watson AI XPRIZE, an individual exposed to the exceptional performance of IBM’s really smart software:
McGregor points out that the behavior of traditional software is usually well understood, but modern machine learning systems cannot be completely described or exhaustively tested. Machine learning derives its behavior from its training data, and therefore, its behavior has the capacity to change in unintended ways as the underlying data changes over time. “These factors, combined with deep learning systems capability to enter into the unstructured world we inhabit means malfunctions are more likely, more complicated, and more dangerous,” McGregor says.
No wonder Google seems to be rethinking its approach to in house, full time, Googlers who want to bring “ethics” to an engineering problem. Maybe ethics and smart software go beyond the non digital world of dudes like Immanuel Kant. I would hypothesize that Kant probably could land a job in Google’s Berlin office.
Stephen E Arnold, January 26, 2021
Computing: Things Go Better with Light
January 22, 2021
Electricity is too slow at matrix math for IBM. Now, announces ZDNet, “IBM Is Using Light, Instead of Electricity, to Create Ultra-Fast Computing.” The shift could be especially important to the future of self-driving automobiles, where ultra-fast processing is needed to avoid collisions at high travel speeds. Reporter Daphne Leprince-Ringuet writes:
“Although the device has only been tested at a small scale, the report suggests that as the processor develops, it could achieve one thousand trillion multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations per second and per square-millimeter – according to the scientists, that is two to three orders more than ‘state-of-the-art AI processors’ that rely on electrical signals.”
IBM researchers have been working toward this goal for some time. Last year, the company demonstrated the tech’s potential through in-memory computing with devices that performed computational tasks using light. Now they have created what they call a photonic tensor core they say is particularly suited for deep-learning applications. The article continues:
“The most significant advantage that light-based circuits have over their electronic counterparts is never-before-seen speed. Leveraging optical physics, the technology developed by IBM can run complex operations in parallel in a single core, using different optical wavelengths for each calculation. Combined with in-memory computing, IBM’s scientists achieved ultra-low latency that is yet to be matched by electrical circuits. For applications that require very low latency, therefore, the speed of photonic processing could make a big difference. … With its ability to perform several operations simultaneously, the light-based processor developed by IBM also requires much less compute density.”
That is another consideration for self-driving vehicles—the smaller the hardware the better. But this technology is far from ready for the road. IBM still must evaluate how it can be integrated for end-to-end performance. The potential to trade electricity for light is an interesting development; we are curious to see how this unfolds.
Cynthia Murrell, January 22, 2021
A Vaccine Passport: Digital or Old Fashioned Rubber Stamp?
January 20, 2021
Vaccination papers, commonly a yellow immunization card, are required for entry into many foreign countries. The World Health Organization created the International Certificate of Inoculation and Vaccination (aka ICV, carte jaune, or yellow card) in 1935.
The COVID-19 may require all international travelers to carry a vaccination passport along with their usual paper, except it might be digital. IBM’s Watson is developing these passports says AFAR in the article, “How Vaccine Passports Will Actually Work.”
Currently, a COVID-19 consists of a piece of paper from the CDC with an individual’s personal information, date of first vaccine, who administrated it, and room for the next dose. Since the COVID-19 vaccination record is only a piece of paper it could be lost and it does not help when most paperwork is digital.
IBM is working on a platform called the IBM Digital Health Pass, where pharmacy and healthcare workers can upload vaccination information that the government will verify. It will take time to deploy the IBM platform, but individuals can be proactive by downloading an approved health app and uploading their information. There are problems with rolling out the platform, especially those who do not have access to smartphones:
“When it comes to digital health passes, ‘How do we make sure that we head in that direction in the most transparent way, and in a way that also provides the greatest amount of access that doesn’t shut people out?’ says Michele Goodwin, director for the Center for Biotechnology and Global Health Policy at the University of California in Irvine, School of Law.
She adds,
‘Not everybody has access to sophisticated smartphones. These are very expensive phones. Or if they have a phone, they may not have the data plan. What you don’t want to do is to deny individuals things that are looking to become a societal privilege or right simply based on their socioeconomic status.’”
Fierce Biotech explains that IBM is working with Salesforce to rollout its IBM Digital Health Pass: “IBM Links With Salesforce To Offer Digital COVID-19 Vaccine Passports.”
The IBM Digital Health Pass is part of the IBM Watson Health endeavor. By teaming with Salesforce, IBM plans to help organizations expand the availability of COVID-19 vaccination verifications.
Salesforce will assist organizations by adding IBM’s technology to its Work.com platform:
“ ‘Our partnership with IBM will give organizations a single platform designed to provide safe and continuous operations, deepen trust with customers and employees and do everything possible to support their health and wellbeing,’ said Bill Patterson, executive vice president and general manager of customer relationship management applications at Salesforce.”
IBM is a technology company, so their resources are limited when it comes to distributing a health platform internationally. By combining its technology with Salesforce’s CRM platform, IBM can focus on perfecting its health system will Salesforce work on the distribution.
IBM and health. A match made in a synthetic biology lab located near Armonk.
Lucky Armonk.
Whitney Grace, January 20, 2021
KPMG: Ignoring the HR Block Case Example or That Will Not Happen at the Exceptional KPMG
January 19, 2021
Here’s a fact of life at allegedly blue chip consulting and service firms. Miss those billability goal, and you are invited to find your future elsewhere.
I read “KPMG’s Marisa Ferrara Boston embraces Auditing Disruption with Watson.” My immediate reaction was id the capable, dutiful Marisa Ferrara Boston overlook this article in Beyond Search: “Watson and Block: Tax Preparation and Watson.” Probably. Business analysis from rural Kentucky is not on the KPMG list of suggested readings.
The point of my write up was in early 2017:
The idea is that H&R Block paid cash money to IBM to integrate Watson into the H&R Block proprietary tax preparation system.
The problem, based on information available to me, the Block Watson service added complexity to the tax workflow.
Oh, oh.
Here’s what KPMG has in mind:
KPMG has partnered with IBM to integrate Watson Discovery and Watson Machine Learning into the auditing workflow. KPMG uses Watson as a backbone to a question-answering pipeline for auditors and risk analysts, enabling KPMG audit professionals to better review, classify, and search across documents to extract important attribute values.
Interesting idea. Replace billable humans with super smart, reliable, fast IBM software.
What could go wrong?
If the Block IBM deal went nowhere, the resistance came from the tax professionals the system was supposed to help. Block and IBM parted company.
At KPMG, the litmus test will be billability. Unless the smart software generates more billable hours (regardless of how the bean counters fiddle the calculations), the KPMG IBM deal is likely to be found wanting. Nothing creates more waves in a blue chip professional services firm than a partner responsible for a number who misses his/her bonus. Nothing.
This quote from the IBM blog misses the point for a big time consulting firm. IBM writes:
“I feel really lucky to be able to be in a position where I’m still in the fight to be able to help push these things along,” says Marisa. But deployment is only half the battle. When it comes to maintaining innovation in automation over time, “it’s never over,” she says. “These AIs are living. They need to be nurtured in an appropriate environment. They’re not just something that you create and consider the job to be done. If so, you have failed, and probably in a very expensive way.”
Notice that employee revenue is not mentioned. Cost control is not mentioned. The partner bonuses are not mentioned. The ire of an unhappy KPMG client who is “surprised” is not mentioned. What about the managing partner who learns that a baby Enron or Autonomy has been birthed by the energetic Watson? Exciting? Yep. Very.
Perhaps some KPMG wizards who will find themselves working at HR Block will be able to ask their new colleagues, “What did you think of that IBM Watson integration?”
Stephen E Arnold, January 19, 2021
Tape for Back Ups: What about Restore and a Few Other Trivial Questions?
December 31, 2020
I read “Fujifilm Created a Magnetic Tape That Can Restore 580 Terabytes.” Amazing. Remarkable. Incredible. Tape!
The write up reports:
The breakthrough, developed jointly with IBM Research, uses a new magnetic particle called Strontium Ferrite (SrFe), commonly used as a raw material for making motor magnets. Fujifilm has been investigating Strontium Ferrite as a possible successor to Barium Ferrite (BaFe), which is the leading material today.
Yep, strontium. Definitely a favorite among some laboring at LANL, Oak Ridge, and Argonne as well as among home experimenters with highly chemical reactive substances. Plus, there’s IBM in the mix. Yep, the Watson folk. Greetings, Blue folk.
I learned:
To put 580 terabytes in perspective, it’s roughly the equivalent of 120,000 DVDs or 786,977 CDs — IBM notes that stacking that many CDs would result in a tower 3,097 feet (944m) tall, or taller than Burj Kalifa, the world’s tallest building. All that data can now fit in a tape cartridge in the palm of your hand.
And how long will this wonder persist as usable media? 30 years.
I do have a couple of questions:
- Write speed?
- Read speed?
- Actual restore speed for 500 terabytes (there is overhead on these puppies, right?)?
- Mechanism to locate the specific blocks required for the restore?
- In use error rate?
- Storage environment required? (Faraday room, cavern in Kansas, in a pile on a metal rack in the junk closet?)
- What’s the cost in fully loaded dollars for the software, device, and staff time for write and restore?
- What’s the tensile strength of the medium in 29 years?
Ah, but there are no answers in the write up.
There you go. Let’s ask Watson or someone who has reported to a client, “Your tape backups are unreadable.” Ever heard that before? I sure have.
Stephen E Arnold, December 31, 2020
IBM Watson: More Promises after Previous Promises. Will IBM Deliver This Time?
December 23, 2020
Wow, I had almost forgotten that IBM Watson was going to be a $1 billion business back in 2014. How quickly some forget that Lucene, home brew code, and acquisitions blended with science fiction? In 2017, the former Big Blue executive said in the Harvard Business Review:
“Watson will touch one billion people by the end of this year.”
Touch is not generate $1 billion and more in sustainable revenues. Nope, Watson failed in cancer, did zippo to fight Covid, and did create some memorable full page ads like the weird chemical structure thing in 2015:
Yeah, building blocks of cognitive software.
“IBM Sets Its NLP Ambitions High With New Capabilities In Watson” explains that IBM is making progress. Note this statement:
While recent announcements by IBM focus around language, explainability, and workplace automation, the update around its language capabilities include reading comprehension, FAQ extraction and improving interactions in Watson Assistant. All these products aim to bring resilience, productivity and value for enterprises.
I like the explainability. Why not explain why the supercomputer Covid drug analysis did not generate a usable output, defaulting to a long list of “maybe these will work drugs” for humans to figure out what would work and what would not. Helpful in a time of crisis.
I don’t want to dwell on the implications that IBM Watson can now understand what humanoids write, particularly in short, cryptic WhatsApp messages about an illegal transaction. Let me quote one dollop of pink confectioner’s sugar paste:
…the company also announced a new intent classification model in IBM Watson Assistant, which is aimed at understanding an end user’s goal or intent behind engaging with the virtual assistant. It will then be used to train the systems accordingly while enabling greater accuracy in virtual assistants.
With a new president, I thought that the old IBM over hyped cognitive PR squibs had been retired for Ms. Rometty to oversee.
Wrong.
IBM is back in the hyperbole game. Let’s ask Watson. On second thought, nah.
Stephen E Arnold, December 23, 2020
IBM: Smashing an Elbow Then a Choke. Tap Out!
November 13, 2020
I read a darned interesting article called “Professional Fighters League to Leverage IBM Technologies to Innovate Next-Gen Proprietary SmartCage.” The write up explains:
The Professional Fighters League (PFL), the fastest growing and most innovative sports league in the world, today announced it will be leveraging Flagship’s capabilities to deliver IBM’s suite of advanced cloud and AI products to enhance the league’s delivery of next-gen SmartCage data and analytics, both live in-broadcast and via the league’s OTT platform, Fight Central.
I think this means that the “boxing ring” becomes intelligent. Boxing is the “sweet science.” I did not know that boxing lacked intelligence. Hmmm.
The goal of harming an opponent will benefit from the tough minded IBM Watson. The article points out:
PFL’s proprietary SmartCage measures real-time MMA fighter performance analytics along with biometric and positional data providing fans with an elevated viewing experience. Moving forward, SmartCage fight data, called Cagenomics, will be enhanced with Watson machine learning to scour data points and uncover new insights for MMA fans, bringing them inside the cage like never before.
I thought IBM’s use of Watson to create a recipe book was a high water point for the high-technology giant. I have been stunned by Watson’s machoness. I am not even in the SmartCage.
Stephen E Arnold, November 13, 2020
IBM Watson: Going Back to the Jeopardy Thing
October 28, 2020
IEEE Spectrum ran an interview which I thought was a trifle unusual. Watson is going to modernize legacy code. How much of the legacy code is the work of IBM programmers and acolytes trained in the ways of Big Blue: JCL incantations, chants for PL/I, and abracadabra for Assembler? What about the code for the US air traffic control system? What about the code for the AS/400, a machine series I have lost in the mists of marketing? I remember rocking on with RPG.
The article has a killer SEO-centric title; to wit:
What, pray tell, was the first challenge IBM Watson successfully resolved? Maybe winning the Jeopardy game show. I keep thinking about the wonders of television post-production for programs which shoot a week’s worth of goodness in one day. The behind the scenes Avid users labor away to produce a “real” TV show. Sorry. I remain skeptical.
The article presents five questions. These are not exactly colloquial. The wording is similar to that used in semi-scripted reality TV programs. The answers are IBM-ish. Please, read and enjoy the original document. I will focus on two of the questions. Yes, I selected the ones with the most Watson goodness based on my experience with the giant of White Plains.
The first question probes the darned exciting history of IBM Watson and cancer. As I recall, some of the oncologists in Houston’s medical community were not thrilled with the time required to explain cancer to IBM analysts and slightly less thrilled with the outputs. Hasta la vista, Watson. The article explains IBM Watson and healthcare using wordage like this:
The use of AI in healthcare is still evolving, and it’s a journey. To expect AI to be able to give the right answer in all diagnosis scenarios is expecting too much. The technology has not reached that level yet. However, that’s precisely why we say it’s more about augmenting the healthcare experts than it is about replacing in many ways.
My, “yeah, but” is a memory of an IBM Watson presentation which asserted that Watson could deliver actionable diagnoses. I know I am getting old, but I recall those assurances. That presentation gave me the idea for the “Weakly Watson” series of articles in this blog. There were some crazy attempts to make IBM Watson relevant: Free to use model, build an application to match dogs with dog owners for a festival in Mexico, etc. etc.
The second question I want to highlight is natural language processing (!) and content processing. Here’s the snippet from the IBMer’s answer I circled with my Big Blue pen:
Roughly speaking, rule-based systems will be successful in translating somewhere between 50 to 60 percent of a program. It is true that part of the program can be translated reasonably well, however, that still leaves half of the program to be translated manually, and that remaining 50 percent is the hardest part, typically involving very complex rules. And that’s exactly where AI kicks in because it can act like humans.
There you go. AI “can act like humans.” Tell that to the people shafted by AI systems as documented in Weapons of Math Destruction.
Net net: Where’s IBM going with Watson? I think anywhere money can be generated. Game shows are probably less complex than addressing encrypted text messages and figuring out what’s in a streaming video in real time.
Who knows? Maybe Lucene, acquired technology from outfits like Vivisimo, and home brew code from IBM Almaden can work miracles.
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2020
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