More on the AI Betamax Versus VHS Dust Up
February 2, 2023
“24 Seriously Embarrassing Hours for AI” gathers four smart software stumbles. The examples are highly suggestive that some butchers have been putting their fingers on the scales. The examples include the stage set approach to Tesla’s self driving and OpenAI’s reliance on humans to beaver away out of sight to make outputs better. In general I agree with the points in the write up.
However, there is one statement which attracted my yellow high light pen like a sci-fi movie tractor beam. Here it is:
Sometimes the slower road is the better road.
It may be that the AI TGV has already left the station and is hurtling down the rails from Paris to Nimes. Microsoft announced that the lovable Teams video chat and Swiss Army knife of widgets will be helping users lickity split. Other infusions are almost certain to follow. Even airlines are thinking smart software. Airlines! These outfits lose luggage with bar codes. Perhaps AI will help, but I remain skeptical. How does one lose a bag with a bar code in our post 9/11 world?
The challenge for Google, Facebook (which wants to be a leader in AI), and the other organizations betting their investors’ money on AI going to take a “slower road”?
My TGV high speed train reference is not poetical; it is a reflection of the momentum of information. The OpenAI machine — with or without legerdemain — is rolling along. OpenAI has momentum. With foresight or dumb luck, Microsoft is riding along.
The “slower road” echoes Google’s conservative approach. Remember that Google sacrificed credibility in AI with the Dr. Timnit Gebru affair. Like a jockey with a high value horse, the beast is now carrying lead pads. Combine that with bureaucratic bloat and concern for ad revenues, I am not sure Google and some other outfits can become the high twitch muscled creature needed to cope with market momentum.
Betamax was better. Well, it did not dominate the market. VHS was pushed into the ditch, but that required time and technological innovation. The AI race is not over but the “slow” angle is late from the gate.
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2023
Has Microsoft Drilled into a Google Weak Point?
February 2, 2023
I want to point to a paper written by someone who is probably not on the short list to replace Jeff Dean or Prabhakar Raghavan at Google. The analysis of synthetic data and its role in smart software is titled “Machine Learning and the Politics of Synthetic Data.” The author is Benjamin N Jacobsen at Durham University. However, the first sentence of the paper invokes Microsoft’s AI Labs at Microsoft Cambridge. Clue? Maybe?
The paper does a good job of defining synthetic data. These are data generated by a smart algorithm. The fake data train other smart software. What could go wrong? The paper consumes 12 pages explaining that quite a bit can go off the rails; for example, just disconnected from the real world or delivering incorrect outputs. No big deal.
For me the key statement in the paper is this one:
… as I have sought to show in this paper, the claims that synthetic data are ushering in a new era of generated inclusion and non-risk for machinelearning algorithms is both misguided and dangerous. For it obfuscates how synthetic data are fundamentally a technology of risk, producing the parameters and conditions of what gets to count as risk in a certain context.
The idea of risk generated from synthetic data is an important one. I have been compiling examples of open source intelligence blind spots. How will a researcher know when an output is “real”? What if an output increases the risk of a particular outcome? Has the smart software begun to undermine human judgment and decision making? What happens if one approach emerges as the winner — for example the SAIL, Snorkel, Google method? What if a dominant company puts its finger on the scale to cause certain decisions to fall out of the synthetic training set?
With many rushing into the field of AI windmills, what will Google’s Code Red actions spark? Perhaps more synthetic data to make training easier, cheaper, and faster? Notice I did not use the word better. Did the stochastic parrot utter something?
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2023
Two Interesting Numbers
February 2, 2023
I spotted two interesting numbers.
The first appeared in this headline: “Facebook Now Has 2 Billion Users.” I am not sure how many people are alive on earth, but this seems like a big number. Facebook or what I call the Zuckbook has morphed into a penny pinching mini-metaverse. But there is the number: two billion. What happens if regulators want to trim down the Zuck’s middle age spread. Chop off WhatsApp. Snip away Instagram. What’s left? The Zuckbook. But is it exciting? Not for me.
Let’s look at the second number. The factoid appears in “ChatGPT Sets Record for Fastest-Growing User Base in History, Report Says.” I quote:
[The] AI bot ChatGPT reached an estimated 100 million active monthly users last month, a mere two months from launch, making it the “fastest-growing consumer application in history…
The Zuckbook thinks ChatGPT is a meh-thing.
Three differences:
First, the ChatGPT thing is a welcome change from the blah announcements about technology in the last six months. I mean another video card, more layoffs, and another Apple sort of new device. Now there is some zing.
Second, the speed of uptake is less of a positive move because ChatGPT is flawless. Nope. The uptake is an example of people annoyed with the status quo and grabbing something that seems a heck of a lot better than ads and more of Dr. Zuboff’s reminders about surveillance.
Third, ChatGPT offers something that almost anyone can use. The learning curve is nearly zero. Can you figure out how to see street views in Google Maps? Can you make Windows update leave your settings alone?
Net net: Fasten your seat belts. A wild ride is beginning.
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2023
You Have Been Googled!
February 1, 2023
If the information in “Google Engineer Who Was Laid Off While on Mental Health Leave Says She Silently Mourned After Receiving Her Severance Email at 2 a.m.” a new meaning for Google may have surfaced. The main point of the write up is that Google has been trimming some of its unwanted trees and shrubs (Populus Quisquilias). These are plants which have been cultivated with Google ideas, beliefs, and nutrients. But now: Root them out of the Google greenhouse, the spaces between cubes, and the grounds near lovely Shoreline Drive.
The article states:
Neil said she had an inclination that layoffs were coming but assumed she would be safe because she was already on leave. According to Neil, she “bled for Google.” She said she met and exceeded performance expectations, while also enjoying her job. Google felt like a safe and stable environment, where the risk of being laid off was very low, Neil said. She described the layoff process as “un-Googley” and done without care. “Now I’m left here having to find a job for the first time in years after being on mental health leave in quite possibly one of the most difficult hiring situations and housing markets,” Neil said. Google won’t allow Neil to go back to her office to drop off her work laptop and other devices, she said. The company has told her to meet security somewhere near the office, or ship the items in a box, she added.
I want to suggest that the new term for this management approach be called “googled.” To illustrate: In order to cut expenses, the firm googled 3,000 employees. Thus, the shift in meaning from “look up” to “look for your future elsewhere” represents a fresh approach for a cost conscious company.
It may be a signal of honor to have been “googled.” For the individual referenced in the write up, the pain and mental stress may take some time to go away. Does Google management know that Populus Quisquilias has feelings?
Stephen E Arnold, February 1, 2023
A Convenient Deep-Fake Time Saver
February 1, 2023
There are some real concerns about deepfakes, and identifying AI imposters remains a challenge. Amid the excitement, there is one outfit determined to put the troublesome tech to use for average folks. We learn about a recent trial run in Motherboard‘s piece, “Researcher Deepfakes His Voice, Uses AI to Demand Refund from Wells Fargo.”
Yes, among other things, Do Not Pay is working to take the tedium out of wrangling with customer service. Writer Joseph Cox describes a video posted on Twitter by founder Joshua Browder in which he uses an AI copy of his voice to request a refund for certain wire transfer fees. In the clip, the tool appears to successfully negotiate with a live representative, though a Wells Fargo spokesperson claims this was not the case and the video was doctored. Browder vigorously insists it was not. We are told Motherboard has requested a recording of the call from Wells Fargo’s side, but they had apparently not supplied on as of this writing. Cox writes:
“‘Hi, I’m calling to get a refund for wire transfer fees,’ the fake Browder says around half way through the clip. The customer support worker then asks for the callers first and last name, which the bot dutifully provides. For a while, the bot and worker spar back and forth on which wire transfer fees the bot is calling about, before settling on the fees for the past three months. In a tweet, Browder said the tool was built from a combination of Resemble.ai, a site that lets users create their own AI voices, GPT-J, an open source casual language model, and Do Not Pay’s own AI models for the script. Do Not Pay has previously used AI-powered bots to negotiate Comcast bills. The conversation from this latest bot is very unnatural. There are long pauses where the bot processes what the customer support worker has said, and works on its response. You can’t help but feel bad for the Wells Fargo worker who had to sit silently while the bot slowly did its thing. But in this case, the bot was effective and did manage to secure the refunds, judging by the video.”
Do Not Pay does plan to make this time-saving tool available to the public, though equipping it with one’s own voice will be a premium option. As uses for deep fake technology go, this does seem like one of the least nefarious. Corporations like Wells Fargo, however, may disagree.
Cynthia Murrell, February 1, 2023
YouTube Biggie and a CryptoZoo
February 1, 2023
Whenever YouTuber Logan Paul makes headlines it is always a cringeworthy event. Paul does not disappoint reports the BBC, because his latest idiotic incident involves cryptocurrency: “YouTube Star Logan Paul Apologizes For CryptoZoo Project Failure.” Using his celebrity, Paul encouraged his audience to purchase cryptocurrency items for a game project. He promised that the game was “really fun” and would make players money.
It has been more than a year since Paul made the announcement and the game still has not surfaced. It appears he has abandoned the project and people are hammering YouTube to investigate yet another Paul disaster.
The game was an autonomous ecosystem where players, called ZooKeepers, bought, sold, and traded cartoon eggs that would hatch into random animals. The images would be NFTs, then ZooKeepers could breed the images to spawn new species and earn $ZOO cryptocurrency. The game was supposed to debut in 2022, but nothing has surfaced. The game sold millions of dollars worth of crypto and NFTS and its Discord server has 500 members.
An armchair cryptocurrency detective took on the case:
“Last month, cryptocurrency scam investigator Stephen Findeisen, known as Coffeezilla on YouTube, began a three-part video series about CryptoZoo, calling it a “scam”.
The American spoke to investors around the world who claimed to have spent hundreds, sometimes thousands of dollars on CryptoZoo items and were angry at Paul.
In his videos, that have had nearly 18 million views, Coffeezilla accused Paul of scamming investors and abandoning them after selling them “worthless” digital items.
On Thursday, Paul posted an angry rebuttal video admitting that he made a mistake hiring “conmen” and “felons” to run his project, but denied the failures were his fault.
He accused Mr. Findeisen of getting facts wrong and threatened to sue him.”
Paul has since deleted the video, apologized to Coffezilla, and wrote on Discord that he would take responsibility, and make a plan for CryptoZoo.
Perhaps Mr. Paul needs to make Brenda Lee’s “I’m Sorry” his theme song, learn to keep his mouth shut, and focus on boxing.
Whitney Grace, February 1, 2023
Doom: An Interesting Prediction from a Xoogler
January 31, 2023
I spotted an interesting prediction about Google or what I call Googzilla. The comment appeared in “Gmail Creator Says ChatGPT Will Destroy Google’s Business in Two Years.”
Google may be only a year or two away from total disruption. AI will eliminate the Search Engine Result Page, which is where they make most of their money. Even if they catch up on AI, they can’t fully deploy it without destroying the most valuable part of their business!
The alleged Xoogler posting the provocative comment was Paul Buchheit. (Once I heard that it was he who turned the phrase, “Don’t be evil.) Mr. Buchheit is attributed with “inventing” Gmail.
The article stated:
The company has built its business largely around its most successful product; the search engine could soon face a crisis… Google charges advertisers a fee for displaying their products and services right next to the search results, increasing the likelihood of the provider being found. In 2021, the company raked in over $250 billion in revenue, its best-ever income in its nearly 25-year-old existence.
Let’s think about ways Google could recover this predicted loss. Here are a few ideas:
- Stop paying vendors like Apple to feature Google search results. (A billion here and a billion there could add up.)
- Create new services and charge users for them. (I know Google tried to cook up a way to sell Loon balloons and a nifty early stab at the metaverse, but maybe the company will find a way to innovate without me toos.)
- Raise prices for consumer services. (That might cause a problem because companies with diversified revenue may lower the already low, low prices for video chat, online word processing, and email. One trick ponies by definition may have difficulty learning another trick or three.)
Will ChatGPT kill the Google? My thought is that even Xooglers feel that the Googzilla is getting arthritic and showing off its middle age spread. Nevertheless, Google’s Sundar and Raghavan management act will have to demonstrate some Fancy Dancing. The ChatGPT may output content that seems okay but tucks errors in its nouns and verbs. But there is the historical precedent of the Sony Betamax to keep in mind. ChatGPT may be flawed but people bought Pintos, and some of these could explode when rear ended. Ouch!
Why are former Google employees pointing out issues? That’s interesting apart from ChatGPT Code Red silliness.
Stephen E Arnold, January 31, 2023
Does Google Need a Better Snorkel and a Deeper Mind?
January 31, 2023
Recession, Sillycon Valley meltdown, and a disaffected workforce? Gloomy, right? Consider this paragraph from “ChatGPT Pro Is Coming. Here’s How You Can Join the Waitlist”:
ChatGPT has probably the fastest-growing user base ever, with a staggering million-plus users signing up a week after its release. That’s four times faster than Dall-E2, which took a month to reach a million users. Microsoft is already mulling an investment of $10 billion, bringing the total valuation of OpenAI, the startup behind ChatGPT, to $29 billion.
A more telling example of the PR coup Microsoft and OpenAI have achieved is the existence of this write up in Sportskeeda. Imagine Sportskeeda publishing “How Google’s AI Tool Sparrow Is Looking to Kill ChatGPT.” Google’s marketing has lured Sportskeeda to help make Google’s case. Impressive.
More blue sky reality, the next big thing has arrived, and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is visible. High school and college students have embraced ChatGPT. Lawyers find it unlawyerlike. Google finds it a bit of a problem.
How do I know?
Navigate to the Wall Street Journal, owned by Rupert Murdoch and sufficiently technologically challenged to use humans to write stories. Consider this one: “Google’s AI Now Plays Catch-Up to Newbies.” Imagine the joy of the remaining Google marketing types when news of a big story circulated. Now consider the disappointment when the Googlers read:
… Google employees began asking whether the company had missed a chance to attract users. During a company-wide meeting in December [2022], Mr. Dean [a Google senior wizard] Google had to move slower than startups because people place a high degree o trust in the company’s products, and current chatbots had issues with accuracy, said people who heard the remarks.
Okay, in that month what happened to ChatGPT? It became big and dominated the regular news and the high-tech news streams. What has Google accomplished:
- Promises that more than 20 products and services are coming? Is that a forward looking statement or vaporware?
- Google rolls over to the EU as it gets ready for the US probe of its modest advertising business
- New applications of Dall-E, ChatGPT, and variants clog the trendy online service Product Hunt.
Net net: Jeff Dean, the champion of recipes and Chubby (a Google technology known to few in my experience) is explaining what I call “to be” innovations. Due to Google’s size and customer base, these to-be smart software powered solutions may overwhelm the ChatGPT thing. Google’s snorkels will deliver life giving oxygen to the the beastie. The DeepMind crew will welcome their colleagues from Mountain View and roll out something that does not require a PhD in genetics to understand.
Yep, to be or not to be. That is a question for the Google.
Stephen E Arnold, January 31, 2023
Crypto and Crime: Interesting Actors Get Blues and Twos on Their Systems
January 31, 2023
I read a widely available document which presents information once described to me as a “close hold.” The article is “Most Criminal Crypto currency Is Funneled Through Just 5 Exchanges.” Most of the write up is the sort of breathless “look what we know” information. The article which recycles information from Wired and from the specialized services firm Chainalysis does not mention the five outfits currently under investigation. The write up does not provide much help to a curious reader by omitting open source intelligence tools which can rank order exchanges by dollar volume. Why not learn about this listing by CoinMarketCap and include that information instead of recycling OPI (other people’s info)? Also, why not point to resources on one of the start.me pages? I know. I know. That’s work that interferes with getting a Tall, Non-Fat Latte With Caramel Drizzle.
The key points for me is the inclusion of some companies/organizations allegedly engaged in some fascinating activities. (Fascinating for crime analysts and cyber fraud investigators. For the individuals involved with these firms, “fascinating” is not the word one might use to describe the information in the Ars Technica article.)
Here are the outfits mentioned in the article:
- Bitcoin Fog – Offline
- Bitzlato
- Chatex
- Garantex
- Helix – Offline
- Suex
- Tornado Cash – Offline
Is there a common thread connecting these organizations? Who are the stakeholders? Who are the managers? Where are these outfits allegedly doing business?
Could it be Russia?
Stephen E Arnold, February 1, 2023
Another Betamax Battle: An Intellectual Spat
January 30, 2023
The AI search fight is officially underway. True, the Baidu AI won’t be available until March 2023, but the trumpet has sounded.
The illustration of two AI mud wrestlers engaging in a contest was produced by Craiyon. I assume that the Craiyon crowd has the © because I can’t draw worth a lick.
The fighters are making their way from the changing room to the pit. In the stands are dozens of AI infused applications. You.com provided a glimpse of its capabilities during its warm up. The somewhat unsteady Googzilla is late. Microsoft has been in the ring waiting for what seems to be a dozen or more news cycles. More spectators are showing up. Look. Baidu is here.
However, there is a spectator with a different point of view from the verdant groves and pizza joints of Princeton University. This Merlin is named Arvind Narayanan, who according to “Decoding the Hype About AI”, once gave a lecture called “How to Recognize AI Snake Oil.” That talk is going to be a book called “AI Snake Oil.” Yep, snake oil: A product of no real worth. No worth. Sharp point: Worth versus no worth. What’s worth?
Please, read the article which is an interview with a person who wants to slow the clapping and stomping of the attendees. Here’s a quote from Dr. Arvind Narayanan’s interview:
Even with something as profound as the internet or search engines or smartphones, it’s turned out to be an adaptation, where we maximize the benefits and try to minimize the risks, rather than some kind of revolution. I don’t think large language models are even on that scale. There can potentially be massive shifts, benefits, and risks in many industries, but I cannot see a scenario where this is a “sky is falling” kind of issue.
Okay, the observations:
- Google and its Code Red suggest that Dr. Narayanan is way off base for the Google search brain trust. Maybe Facebook and its “meh” response are better? Microsoft’s bet on OpenAI is going with the adaptation approach. Smart Word may be better than Clippy plus it may sell software licenses to big companies, marketers, and students who need essay writing help
- If ChatGPT is snake oil, what’s the fuss? Could it be that some people who are exposed to ChatGPT perceive the smart software as new, exciting, promising, and an opportunity? That seems a reasonable statement at this time.
- The split between the believers (Microsoft, et al) and the haters (Google, et al) surfaced with the Timnit Gebru incident at Google. More intellectual warfare is likely: Bias, incorrect output pretending to be correct, copyright issues, etc.
Is technology exciting again? Finally.
Stephen E Arnold, January 30, 2023
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