Smart Software: Can Humans Keep Pace with Emergent Behavior ?
November 29, 2022
For the last six months, I have been poking around the idea that certain behaviors are emergent; that is, give humans a capability or a dataspace, and those humans will develop novel features and functions. The examples we have been exploring are related to methods used by bad actors to avoid take downs by law enforcement. The emergent behaviors we have noted exploit domain name registry mechanisms and clever software able to obfuscate traffic from Tor exit nodes. The result of the online dataspace is unanticipated emergent behaviors. The idea is that bad actors come up with something novel using the Internet’s furniture.
We noted “137 Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models.” If our understanding of this report is mostly accurate, large language models like those used by Google and other firms manifest emergent behavior. What’s interesting is that the write up explains that there is not one type of emergent behavior. The article ideas a Rivian truck bed full of emergent behaviors.
Here’s are the behaviors associated with big data sets and LaMDA 137B. (The method is a family of Transformer-based neural language models specialized for dialog. Correctly or incorrectly we associate LaMBA with Google’s smart software work. See this Google blog post.) Now here are the items mentioned in the Emergent Abilities paper:
Gender inclusive sentences German
Irony identification
Logical arguments
Repeat copy logic
Sports understanding
Swahili English proverbs
Word sorting
Word unscrambling
Another category of emergent behavior is what the paper calls “Emergent prompting strategies.” The idea is more general prompting strategies manifest themselves. The system can perform certain functions that cannot be implemented when using “small” data sets; for example, solving multi step math problems in less widely used languages.
The paper includes links so the different types of emergent behavior can be explored. The paper wraps up with questions researchers may want to consider. One question we found suggestive was:
What tasks are language models currently not able to to perform, that we should evaluate on future language models of better quality?
The notion of emergent behavior is important for two reasons: [a] Systems can manifest capabilities or possible behaviors not anticipated by developers and [b] Novel capabilities may create additional unforeseen capabilities or actions.
If one thinks about emergent behaviors in any smart, big data system, humans may struggle to understand, keep up, and manage downstream consequences in one or more dataspaces.
Stephen E Arnold, November 29, 2022
Harvard Expert Opines about Harvard Drop Out, the Zuckster
November 29, 2022
I read a weird news release or self promotional write up from an outfit called Benzinga. The write up is titled “Harvard Expert Says Zuckerberg Is Detailing Facebook: I Thing the Wealth Went to His Head.” Imitating the jazzy writing style of other zippy news entities, I noted what the publication calls “Zingers.” Here is the zinger that caught my attention:
Bill George said Zuckerberg is to blame for Facebook losing its market share to upstart rival TikTok.
I assume that Mr. George is an estimable Harvard-grade expert and former top dog of a medical technology outfit. The assessment of the Zuckster appears in Mr. George’s new book “True North: Leading Authentically in Today’s Workplace, Emerging Leader Edition.”
The write up adds:
Mark Zuckerberg’s leadership approach as the CEO of Meta Platforms Inc has not helped the company grow, and instead dragging it towards failure.
Let’s flip this analysis around. The Zuckster was at Harvard, possibly long enough to ingest its approach to life, business, social responsibility, ethics, and overall view of non-Harvard types.
If my assertion is correct, Facebook is a manifestation of Harvard. Think of Jeffrey Skilling (a Harvard whiz kid) and Enron. Is it possible that the pulse of Harvard keeps alive a certain zeitgeist?
If I am correct, the Zuckster is just doing what the Crimson do when given a chance; for example, assume control, reject inputs, and pay people to do his bidding.
Go Harvard!
Stephen E Arnold, November 29, 2022
Microsoft Fancy Dances When Activision Plays a Tune
November 29, 2022
In order to convince the European Commission it should be allowed to acquire Activision Blizzard, Microsoft is sampling some humble pie. Android Authority reports, “Microsoft Admits Xbox vs PlayStation War Is Over and It Lost.” Write Ryan McNeal tells us:
“The EU’s European Commission has announced in a press release that it has opened up an in-depth investigation into Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard. This investigation was activated after the proposed deadline EU regulators set back in September when the deal was first being looked into. According to the press release, the new inquiry now has 90 working days — until March 23, 2023 — to make a decision. The Commission claims that it is concerned Microsoft’s acquisition could upset the balance in the market, causing a reduction in competition.”
Specifically, the commission suspects Microsoft might make successful PlayStation games like “Call of Duty” into Xbox-only titles. Heavens no, the company insists, it promises to make games available on both platforms simultaneously. This is all about giving the people greater access to games, a representative asserts. And here we thought it was all about creating a distraction. McNeal continues:
“Since the first time it hit a snag with European regulators, Microsoft has attempted to utilize an underdog strategy to delegitimize Sony’s arguments against the deal. In response to today’s investigation announcement, Microsoft attempted to drive that talking point home by admitting that Sony is the market leader.”
Will this self-effacing logic work? We should find out by the end of March. Nota bene: Our team thinks that the push for Activision was possibly a way to deflect attention from some interesting Microsoft security issues. Games are big money, but the issue of Teams in Microsoft 365 may be an even more sensitive issue.
Cynthia Murrell, November 29, 2022
Why Did Smart People Fall For The FTX Scam? Uh, Maybe Greed?
November 29, 2022
When we hear how people fall for scams, we tell ourselves that we are too smart and will never become a victim of one. Despite our intelligence, we all become scam victims at some point in our lives. Hopefully, the aftermath is no more devastating than broken pride and a well-learned lesson. Unfortunately, investors in the FTX crypto currency have lost everything like people in the 1930s Depression. The Guardian expresses why FTX lured so many people: “Why Were So Many Smart People So Dumb About FTX? Did They Seriously Just Like Sam Bankman-Fried’s Vibe?”
Area Mahdawi wrote the editorial about crypto currencies and she immediately rips into Sam Bankman-Fried’s unprofessionalism. The FTX inventor played videogames during business meetings. That does not inspire confidence. Large investors threw money at him and he was described as the “next Warren Buffett” and it was believed he could become the world’s first trillionaire.
Behind the proverbial curtain, Bankman-Fried was pulling a typical scam: shifting funds from FTX to his other company, Alameda Research. He then made risky risky trades and lost billions! His net worth fell from $16.2 billion to $3. Bankman-Fried lived a luxurious life a lá Anna Delvey in the Bahamas with his nine employees and they all had various romantic relationships with each other.
Mahdawi thinks people fell for Bankman-Fried for two reasons:
- They didn’t understand what he was selling, so that meant he was a genius.
- They liked his charisma.
Some investors were impressed that Bankman-Fried played videogames during meetings. Why? Maybe he conveyed an autistic savant vibe that appeared he could crunch the numbers and do magic tricks. Mahdawi said this would not have happened to other people, especially women:
“I don’t know about you, but I’m having one of those want-to-tear-my-hair-out-with-frustration moments right now. Can you imagine a woman playing video games in a meeting and being handed billions by investors? That would never happen. Last year, female founders secured only 2% of venture capital in the US and I’ll bet you everything I have that those founders were as buttoned-up as you can get. I’ll bet you they didn’t get a billion dollars because people “just liked their vibe”.”
She’s right, but also wrong. It depends on the person handing out the loans and the office politics. As to why the people invested their money with the scam artist, they wanted to make more money. Chalk it up to simple greed. Greed is good too.
Whitey Grace, November 30, 2022
Europol Take Down Despite a Bad Actor Haven, Encryption, and Modern Business Methods
November 28, 2022
First, Europol and a group of investigators shut down a drug operation. “Operation Desert Light: Europol Take Down Massive Cocaine Super Cartel” reported:
…49 people were arrested across six European countries, the EU’s police agency, Europol, said.
The somewhat terse news story referenced a couple of factoids that I found interesting:
- The article mentioned that there were six senior criminals running the operation. This to me suggests what I call in my lectures to law enforcement and intelligence professionals “industrialized crime.” The idea is that the precepts and methods are ones widely used by successful businesses. Just as the ideas about engineering efficiency and MBA profit maximization have diffused in legitimate enterprises, bad actors have been good students and implementers.
- One bad actor fled Europe and operated from Dubai. Dubai has, for some including this particular bad actor, has become a destination of choice for some pursued by authorities representing other countries. What makes Dubai a possible safe haven? What additional steps are needed to reduce the appeal of Dubai and certain other countries?
- The article mentions “encrypted phones.” In my lectures, I discuss the Teflon effect of secure mobile devices and digital currencies which I describe as Bitcoin or variants.
Net net: More direct action by governments is necessary to [a] speed up investigations and [b] remove barriers to appropriate surveillance by direct and indirect methods. Crime is an emergent feature of online systems and services. To prevent criminal activity from becoming the dominant feature of online, a rethink of systems and methods may provide fruitful.
Just my opinion.
Stephen E Arnold, November 28, 2022
The Collision of Nation State Bias and High School Science Club Management
November 28, 2022
CNN offered some interesting pictures of the labor management misunderstanding in Zhengzhou, China. Even though I have been to China several times, I was not sure what made Zengzhou different from other “informed” cities struggling with what may be an ill-advised approach to Covid. In fact, the images of law enforcement and disgruntled individuals are not particularly unique. These images are more interesting when a blurry background of Apple and a Taiwanese company add a touch of chiaroscuro to the scenes.
What is interesting is that “Apple Has a Huge Problem with an iPhone Factory in China” mentions the “Taiwan contract manufacturing firm Foxconn.” CNN, however, does not offer any information about the involvement of individuals who want to create issues for Foxconn. China and Taiwan sort of coexist, but I am not certain that the Chinese provincial government either in Henan or the national government in Beijing are particularly concerned about what happens to either Apple of Foxconn.
The fact that workers suddenly became upset suggests that I have to exercise a willing suspension of disbelief and assume the dust up was spontaneous. Sorry, a “Hey, this just happened because of pay” or some similar dismissive comment won’t make me feel warm and fuzzy.
The write up asserts:
The Zhengzhou campus has been grappling with a Covid outbreak since mid-October that caused panic among its workers. Videos of people leaving Zhengzhou on foot went viral on Chinese social media in early November, forcing Foxconn to step up measures to get its staff back…. But on Tuesday [November 22, 2022] night, hundreds of workers, mostly new hires, began to protest against the terms of the payment packages offered to them and also about their living conditions. Scenes turned increasingly violent into the next day as workers clashed with a large number of security forces. By Wednesday [November 23] evening, the crowds had quieted, with protesters returning to their dormitories on the Foxconn campus after the company offered to pay the newly recruited workers 10,000 yuan ($1,400), or roughly two months of wages, to quit and leave the site altogether.
Seems straightforward. A confluence of issues culminated in a protest.
Now let’s think about the issue this way. These are my working hypotheses.
First, Foxconn may not perceive the complaints of its employees as important. Sure, the factory workers have to do their job, but these are Chinese factory workers. Foxconn has a Taiwan spin. This may translate into Chinese government passivity. Let the Taiwan managers deal with the problems.
Second, Apple is a US outfit and it embraces some of the tenets of the high school science club management method. The kernel of the HSSCMM is that science club members know best. Others do not; therefore, if something is not on the radar of the science club, that “something” is irrelevant, silly, or just plain annoying.
Third, the workers have some awareness of the financial resources of Foxconn and Apple. Thus, like workers from an Apple store to the quiet halls of the Apple core spaceship, money talks.
Fourth, Covid. Yep, not going away it seems.
What happens when China is not too interested in Foxconn, Foxconn is not too interested in Chinese workers, and Apple is busy inventing ways to prevent people from upgrading the Mac computers?
That’s what CNN understands. Protests, clashes, and violence. Toss in some Covid fear and one has the exciting story for consumers of CNN “real” news.
Is there are fix? For China and its attitude to Taiwanese businesses which allegedly exploit Chinese workers, sure. I won’t explore that solution. For Foxconn, sure, but it will take time for Foxconn to de-China its production operations. For Apple, not really. The company will follow the logic of the science club: Find some people who will work for less.
Net net: Apple and its HSSCMM will probably not find too many fans in the Middle Kingdom. And Foxconn? Do China and Apple care? Apple cares about money. China cares about the Middle Kingdom. Foxconn cares about what? Building plants in the US… soon?
Stephen E Arnold, November 28, 2022
AI: Technology Is Neutral, Right?
November 28, 2022
AI technology can be a boon to many—including cybercriminals. The SmartData Collective describes “3 Ways AI Has Led to Horrifying Cybersecurity Threats.” Writer Alexander Bekker warns:
“The last thing you want is to be hacked by cybercriminals and have your company’s and customers’ data fall into the wrong hands. In order to prevent this from happening, it is important to be aware of any current digital security threats. Sadly, AI technology is only making cybersecurity threats worse than ever. Bob Violino wrote an article in CNBC that said both cybersecurity experts and black hat hackers are using AI technology. However, cybercriminals seem to be benefiting the most from AI, which means that cybersecurity experts need to be more diligent and innovative to use it effectively. With this in mind, let’s start by looking at three of the top current digital threats that are becoming worse due to AI technology, as well as how to prevent them from happening to your company:”
At the top of the list is ransomware, an already robust threat which can be turbocharged with AI automation. Most ransomware attacks begin with phishing emails, so companies must train workers to recognize those tricks. Regular backups will ensure a firm can recover data if someone does slip up. Bekker also mentions credential stuffing, wherein hackers acquire credentials stolen from one company and use them to access another. Machine learning algorithms help criminals make connections between organizations much faster than before. To guard against these attacks, companies should require multi-factor authentication and make sure no one reuses passwords for different websites. This advice brings us to the final culprit, poor cyber hygiene. Some algorithms specialize in pinpointing targets with weak security practices. We are reminded:
“To help improve cyber hygiene, start by requiring two-factor authentication, use a password manager program, and ask that employees not use personal devices for work. Also, to help ensure that hackers will not be able to gain access to usable information, it is important to make sure that your company SSL certificates are current.”
As these bad bots continue to grow more sophisticated, best security practices become even more important. Even if they do not become any less tedious.
Cynthia Murrell, November 28, 2022
Apple, What Does Significant Mean?
November 28, 2022
It is not a secret that advertising fees generate a large amount of profit on the Internet and they are increasing like rabbits in spring. Nobody likes dealing with ads, but big tech companies do not care because they only want to increase their bottom line. While Apple has revamped how ads are viewed in its App Store, 9 To 5 Mac says, “Report: Apple Currently Doesn’t Plan To ‘Significantly’ Increase Number Of Ads On iPhone.”
While Apple is currently satisfied with its net revenue from ads, there have been plans since 2018 to place more advertising on features in its products. Spotlight search was supposed to include ads, but that never happened. It appears that some Apple employees empathize with consumers:
“The report covers the tension of Apple product experience and advertising, describing an “antipathy” that some employees have toward the ad group. The Information says even some members of the ad team raised concerns with leadership that Apple was going too far. This is perhaps one reason why the plan to launch ads in Spotlight did not go ahead.”
App developers lashed back at Apple with the new changes to the App Store’s ad spots, because there were too many scams and gambling ads that appeared. Apple has paused showing certain controversial ad categories.
Apple has also angered third-party ad networks, because of its App Tacking Transparency policy that allows users to opt-out of sharing their personal information. User data is the key component in making the digital advertising world go round and the policy is viewed as Apple’s way to eliminate competition.
Apple continues to leverage its products and their features to build ad revenue. There are plans to add them to the Maps, Books, and Podcast apps. Ads might not appear on the iOS main screen yet, but given “significant” time it could happen.
Whitey Grace, November 28, 2022
Pixel and Emergency Number Dialing: Is Google Leaving Money on the Table?
November 25, 2022
I read “Very Scary Issue Dialing 911 on Google Pixel 6 Cell Phones.” The write up may not be representative because it relates data from an undefined sample. The assertion in the write up is:
Some cell phone users say they had an issue dialing 911 from their Google Pixel 6 models.
HackerNews presented a discussion thread. I found some interesting comments in the document which is located at this link. Here are several I found suggestive:
- Crooked-v offered this observation and opinion: An update is not arriving for the Pixel 6 yet. Google’s newest flagship is going though a bit of an update crisis at the moment. The December 2021 update was pulled due to unrelated “mobile connectivity issues” (phone calls don’t work). While Google scrambles to fix everything, the next Pixel 6 update with this 911 fix is due in “late January.” Until then, it’s normal to be on the November patch. Both of Google’s “early January” and “late January” patch timelines seem incredibly slow for a bug that could cause users to literally die.
- DoingIsLearning posted: Not sure why they don’t say it by name but the bug was originally found with MS Teams. “The issue is the result of an “unintended interaction” between Teams and Android, specifically when the users have the app installed but are not logged in to any account.”
- Simfree asserts: I don’t think this is newsworthy at this point. My Pixel 6 and Pixel 7 both are unreliable when trying to call 911, calling with an over the top app or dialing the PSAP’s number directly are the only workarounds. Google doesn’t give a f*%k about this issue. I have filed repeated support cases over the past year with Google about this when using T-Mobile or Verizon.
- yreg added: “It’s the users who are wrong” ideology applies when you tell the customers they are holding the iPhone 4 wrong. Or when you ask them whether they don’t have phones when you reveal the next Diablo as mobile-only. No company would argue that users are wrong and that they are not supposed to dial emergency services.
I recall a comment possibly by Google wizard Eric Schmidt along the lines that when a person has nothing to hide, there is no need to worry about surveillance” or something similar.
This can be applied to non functional emergency call features; for example, Avoid risk and you won’t have to call an emergency number.”
My view is that ad-centric companies should facilitate, intercept, and ad match emergency calls. The revenue from ad sales to emergency medical services, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, among others is money left on the table.
Google may be slipping.
Stephen E Arnold, November 25, 2022
Is There a Horse Named Intel PR?
November 25, 2022
I noted the information in “Intel Introduces Real-Time Deepfake Detector.” I like the real time angle. The subtitle caught my attention:
Intel’s deepfake detector analyzes ‘blood flow’ in video pixels to return results in milliseconds with 96% accuracy.
Milliseconds.
I am not saying that Intel’s FakeCatcher does not work on a small, curated video, maybe several.
But like smart cyber security technology, a system works because it recognizes what it knows about. What happens when a bad actor (maybe a disaffected computer science student at a forward leaning university cooks up a novel exploit? In my experience, the smart cyber security system looks dumb.
And what about the interesting four percent error rate? A four percent error rate. So if Intel is monitoring in real time the 500 hours of video uploaded to the Googley YouTube, the system incorrectly identifies only 20 hours of video per minute. What if those misidentified videos were discussing somewhat tricky subjects like missiles striking Poland or a statement about a world leader? Not even the whiz kids who fall in love with chatbots bandy about 96 percent accuracy. Well, maybe a whiz kid who thinks a chatbot is alive may go for the 100 percent thing. Researchers often have a different approach to data; namely, outputting results that are not reproducible or just copied and pasted from other documents. Efficiency is good. So is PR.
Let’s take a step back.
What about the cost of a system to handle, analyze, and identify a fake? I think most US television programming is in the business of institutionalized fakery. I can hear the rejoinder, “We are talking about a certain type of video?” That’s okay for the researchers, not okay for me.
The Intel PR item (which may itself be horse feathers or its close cousin content marketing) says:
Intel’s real-time platform uses FakeCatcher, a detector designed by Demir in collaboration with Umur Ciftci from the State University of New York at Binghamton. Using Intel hardware and software, it runs on a server and interfaces through a web-based platform. On the software side, an orchestra of specialist tools form the optimized FakeCatcher architecture.
Ah, ha. Academic computer razzle dazzle. I am not sure if the Intel news release is in the same league as the computer scientist in Louisville, Kentucky, who has published the ways to determine if I am living in a simulation. (See this IFL Science write up.) It is possible that the Intel claim is in some ways similar: Academics and big companies in search of buzz.
Intel’s announcement is really important. How do I know? I learned:
Deepfake videos are a growing threat.
This is news? I think it is a horse named “PR.”
Stephen E Arnold, November 25, 2022
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