Amazon: Numerical Recipes Poison Good Deals
November 8, 2023
Dinobaby here. I read “FTC Alleges Amazon Used a Price-Gouging Algorithm.” The allegations in the article are likely to ruffle some legal eagles wearing Amazon merchandise. The main idea is that a numerical recipe named after the dinobaby’s avatar manipulated prices to generate more revenue for the Bezos bulldozer. This is a bulldozer relocating to Miami too. Miami says, “Buenos días.” Engadget says:
Amazon faces allegations from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) of wielding price-gouging algorithms through an operation called “Project Nessie” according to court documents filed Thursday. The FTC says the algorithm has generated more than $1 billion in excess profit for Jeff Bezos’s e-commerce giant.
Let’s assume the allegations contain a dinosaur scale or two of truth. What could one living in rural Kentucky conclude? How about these notions:
- Amazon knows how to use fancy math in a way that advantages itself. Imagine the earning power of manipulated algorithms powered by smart software in the hands of engineers eager to earn a bonus, a promotion, and maybe a ride in a rocket ship from the fountain head of the online bookstore. Yep, just imagine.
- Amazon got caught. If the justice system prevails, will shoppers avoid Anazon?l lNope, in my opinion. There are more Amazon delivery vehicles in the area where I live in nowhere Kentucky than on the main highway. Convenience wins. So what if the pricing is wonky. Couch potatoes like couches, not driving 30 minutes to a so-called store. Laws just may not matter when it comes to big tech outfits.
- Other companies may learn from Amazon. The estimable CocaCola machines in some whiz kids’ dreams learns what a person likes and prices accordingly. That innovation may become a reality as some bright sparks invent the future of billing as much as possible and hamstringing competitors. Nice work, if Amazon does have the alleged money machine algorithms.
What is the future of retail? I would offer the opinion that trickery, mendacity, and cleverness will become the keys to success. I am glad I am an old dinobaby, but I like the name “Nessie.” My mama Dino had a friend named Nessie. Nice fangs and big quiet pads on her claws. Perfect for catching and killing prey.
Stephen E Arnold, November 7, 2023
The Risks of Smart Software in the Hands of Fullz Actors and Worse
November 7, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The ChatGPT and Sam AI-Man parade is getting more acts. I spotted some thumbs up from Satya Nadella about Sam AI-Man and his technology. The news service Techmeme provided me with dozens of links and enticing headlines about enterprise this and turbo that GPT. Those trumpets and tubas were pumping out the digital version of Funiculì, Funiculà.
I want to highlight one write up and point out an issue with smart software that appears to have been ignored, overlooked, or like the iceberg possibly that sank the RMS Titanic, was a heck of a lot more dangerous than Captain Edward Smith appreciated.
The crowd is thrilled with the new capabilities of smart software. Imagine automating mundane, mindless work. Over the oom-pah of the band, one can sense the excitement of the Next Big Thing getting Bigger and more Thingier. In the crowd, however, are real or nascent bad actors. They are really happy too. Imagine how easy it will be to automate processes designed to steal personal financial data or other chinks in humans’ armor!
The article is “How OpenAI Is Building a Path Toward AI Agents.” The main idea is that one can type instructions into Sam AI-Man’s GPT “system” and have smart software hook together discrete functions. These functions can then deliver an output requiring the actions of different services.
The write up approaches this announcement or marketing assertion with some prudence. The essay points out that “customer chatbots aren’t a new idea.” I agree. Connecting services has been one of the basic ideas of the use of software. Anyone who has used notched cards to retrieve items related to one another is going to understand the value of automation. And now, if the Sam AI-Man announcements are accurate that capability no longer requires old-fashioned learning the ropes.
The cited write up about building a path asserts:
Once you start enabling agents like the ones OpenAI pointed toward today, you start building the path toward sophisticated algorithms manipulating the stock market; highly personalized and effective phishing attacks; discrimination and privacy violations based on automations connected to facial recognition; and all the unintended (and currently unimaginable) consequences of infinite AIs colliding on the internet.
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt are staples of advanced technology. And the essay makes clear that the rule maker in chief is Sam AI-Man; to wit the essay says:
After the event, I asked Altman how he was thinking about agents in general. Which actions is OpenAI comfortable letting GPT-4 take on the internet today, and which does the company not want to touch? Altman’s answer is that, at least for now, the company wants to keep it simple. Clear, direct actions are OK; anything that involves high-level planning isn’t.
Let me introduce my observations about the Sam AI-Man innovations and the type of explanations about the PR and marketing event which has whipped up pundits, poohbahs, and Twitter experts (perhaps I should say X-spurts?)
First, the Sam AI-Man announcements strike me as making orchestration a service easy to use and widely available. Bad things won’t be allowed. But the core idea of what I call “orchestration” is where the parade is marching. I hear the refrain “Some think the world is made for fun and frolic.” But I don’t agree, I don’t agree. Because as advanced tools become widely available, the early adopters are not exclusively those who want to link a calendar to an email to a document about a meeting to talk about a new marketing initiative.
Second, the ability of Sam AI-Man to determine what’s in bounds and out of bounds is different from refereeing a pickleball game. Some of the players will be nation states with an adversarial view of the US of A. Furthermore, there are bad actors who have a knack for linking automated information to online extortion. These folks will be interested in cost cutting and efficiency. More problematic, some of these individuals will be more active in testing how orchestration can facilitate their human trafficking activities or drug sales.
Third, government entities and people like Sam AI-Man are, by definition, now in reactive mode. What I mean is that with the announcement and the chatter about automating the work required to create a snappy online article is not what a bad actor will do. Individuals will see opportunities to create new ways to exploit the cluelessness of employees, senior citizens, and young people. The cheerful announcements and the parade tunes cannot drown out the low frequency rumbles of excitement now rippling through the bad actor grapevines.
Net net: Crime propelled by orchestration is now officially a thing. The “regulations” of smart software, like the professionals who will have to deal with the downstream consequences of automation, are out of date. Am I worried? For me personally, no, I am not worried. For those who have to enforce the laws which govern a social construct? Yep, I have a bit of concern. Certainly more than those who are laughing and enjoying the parade.
Stephen E Arnold, November 7, 2023
Missing Signals: Are the Tools or Analysts at Fault?
November 7, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Returning from a trip to DC yesterday, I thought about “signals.” The pilot — a specialist in hit-the-runway-hard landings — used the word “signals” in his welcome-aboard speech. The word sparked two examples of missing signals. The first is the troubling kinetic activities in the Middle East. The second is the US Army reservist who went on a shooting rampage.
The intelligence analyst says, “I have tools. I have data. I have real time information. I have so many signals. Now which ones are important, accurate, and actionable?” Our intrepid professionals displays the reality of separating the signal from the noise. Scary, right? Time for a Starbuck’s visit.
I know zero about what software and tools, systems and informers, and analytics and smart software the intelligence operators in Israel relied upon. I know even less about what mechanisms were in place when Robert Card killed more than a dozen people.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published “Experts React: Assessing the Israeli Intelligence and Potential Policy Failure.” The write up stated:
It is incredible that Hamas planned, procured, and financed the attacks of October 7, likely over the course of at least two years, without being detected by Israeli intelligence. The fact that it appears to have done so without U.S. detection is nothing short of astonishing. The attack was complex and expensive.
And one more passage:
The fact that Israeli intelligence, as well as the international intelligence community (specifically the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network), missed millions of dollars’ worth of procurement, planning, and preparation activities by a known terrorist entity is extremely troubling.
Now let’s shift to the Lewiston Maine shooting. I had saved on my laptop “Six Missed Warning Signs Before the Maine Mass Shooting Explained.” The UK newspaper The Guardian reported:
The information about why, despite the glaring sequence of warning signs that should have prevented him from being able to possess a gun, he was still able to own over a dozen firearms, remains cloudy.
Those “signs” included punching a fellow officer in the US Army Reserve force, spending some time in a mental health facility, family members’ emitting “watch this fellow” statements, vibes about issues from his workplace, and the weapon activity.
On one hand, Israel had intelligence inputs from just about every imaginable high-value source from people and software. On the other hand, in a small town the only signal that was not emitted by Mr. Card was buying a billboard and posting a message saying, “Do not invite Mr. Card to a church social.”
As the plane droned at 1973 speeds toward the flyover state of Kentucky, I jotted down several thoughts. Like or not, here these ruminations are:
- Despite the baloney about identifying signals and determining which are important and which are not, existing systems and methods failed bigly. The proof? Dead people. Subsequent floundering.
- The mechanisms in place to deliver on point, significant information do not work. Perhaps it is the hustle bustle of everyday life? Perhaps it is that humans are not very good at figuring out what’s important and what’s unimportant. The proof? Dead people. Constant news releases about the next big thing in open source intelligence analysis. Get real. This stuff failed at the scale of SBF’s machinations.
- The uninformed pontifications of cyber security marketers, the bureaucratic chatter flowing from assorted government agencies, and the cloud of unknowing when the signals are as subtle as the foghorn on cruise ship with a passenger overboard. Hello, hello, the basic analysis processes don’t work. A WeWork investor’s thought processes were more on point than the output of reporting systems in use in Maine and Israel.
After the aircraft did the thump-and-bump landing, I was able to walk away. That’s more than I can say for the victims of analysis, investigation, and information processing methods in use where moose roam free and where intelware is crafted and sold like canned beans at TraderJoe’s.
Less baloney and more awareness that talking about advanced information methods is a heck of a lot easier than delivering actual signal analysis.
Stephen E Arnold, November 7, 2023
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AI Makes Cyberattacks Worse. No Fooling?
November 7, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Why does everyone appear to be surprised by the potential dangers of cyber attacks? Science fiction writers and even the crazy conspiracy theorists with their tin foil hats predicted that technology would outpace humanity one day. Tech Radar wrote an article about how AI like ChatGPT makes cyber attacks more dangerous than ever: “AI Is Making Cyberattacks Even Smarter And More Dangerous.”
Tech experts want to know how humans and AI algorithms compare when it comes to creating scams. IBM’s Security Intelligence X-Force team accepted the challenge with an experiment about phishing emails. They compared human written phishing emails against those ChatGPT wrote. IBM’s X-Force team discovered that the human written emails had higher clicks rates, giving them a slight edge over the ChatGPT. It was a very slight edge that proves AI algorithms aren’t far from competing and outpacing human scammers.
Human written phishing scams have higher click rates, because of emotional intelligence, personalization, and ability to connect with their victims.
“All of these factors can be easily tweaked with minimal human input, making AI’s work extremely valuable. It is also worth noting that the X-Force team could get a generative AI model to write a convincing phishing email in just five minutes from five prompts – manually writing such an email would take the team about 16 hours. ‘While X-Force has not witnessed the wide-scale use of generative AI in current campaigns, tools such as WormGPT, which were built to be unrestricted or semi-restricted LLMs were observed for sale on various forums advertising phishing capabilities – showing that attackers are testing AI’s use in phishing campaigns,’ the researchers concluded.”
It’s only a matter of time before the bad actors learn how to train the algorithms to be as convincing as their human creators. White hat hackers have a lot of potential to earn big bucks as venture startups.
Whitney Grace, November 7, 2023
Tech Writer Overly Frustrated With Companies
November 7, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
We all begin our adulthoods as wide-eyed, naïve go-getters who are out to change the world. It only takes a few years for our hopes and dreams to be dashed by the menial, insufferable behaviors that plague businesses. We all have stories about incompetence, wasted resources, passing the buck, and butt kissers. Ludicity is a blog written by a tech engineer where he vents his frustrations and shares his observations about his chosen field. His first post in November 2023 highlights the stupidity of humanity and upper management: “What The Goddamn Hell Is Going On In The Tech Industry?”
For this specific post, the author reflects on a comment he received regarding how companies can save money by eliminating useless bodies and giving the competent staff the freedom to do their jobs. The comment in question blamed the author for creating unnecessary stress and not being a team player. In turn, the author pointed out the illogical actions of the comment and subsequently dunked his head in water to dampen his screams. The author writes Ludicity for cathartic reasons, especially to commiserate with his fellow engineers.
The author turned 29 in 2023, so he’s ending his twenties with the same depression and dismal outlook we all share:
“There’s just some massive unwashed mass of utterly stupid companies where nothing makes any sense, and the only efficiencies exist in the department that generates the money to fund the other stupid stuff, and then a few places doing things halfway right. The places doing things right tend to be characterized by being small, not being obsessed with growth, and having calm, compassionate founders who still keep a hand on the wheel. And the people that work there tend not to know the people that work elsewhere. They’re just in some blessed bubble where the dysfunction still exists in serious quantities, but that quantity is like 1/10th the intensity of what it is elsewhere.”
The author, however, still possesses hope. He wants to connect with like-minded individuals who are tired of the same corporate shill and want to work together at a company that actually gets work done.
We all want to do that. Unfortunately the author might be better off starting his own company to attract his brethren and see what happens. It’ll be hard but not as hard as going back to school or dealing with corporate echo chambers.
Whitney Grace, November 7, 2023
ACM Kills Print Publications But Dodges the Money Issue
November 6, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
In January 2024, the Association for Computing Machinery will kill off its print publication. “Ceasing Print Publication of ACM Journals and Transaction” says good bye to the hard copy instances of Communications of ACM, ACM InRoads, and a couple of other publications. It is possible that ACM will continue to produce print versions of material for students. (I thought students were accustomed to digital content. Guess the ACM knows something I don’t. That’s not too difficult. I am a dinobaby, who read ACM publications for the stories, not the pictures.)
The perspiring clerk asks, “But what about saving the whales?” The CFO carrying the burden of talking to auditors, replies, “It’s money stupid, not that PR baloney.” Thanks, Microsoft Bind. You understand accountants perspiring. Do you have experience answering IRS questions about some calculations related to Puerto Rico?
Why would a professional trade outfit dismiss paper? My immediate and uninformed answer to this question is, “Cost. Stuff like printing, storage, fulfillment, and design cost money.” I would be wrong, of course. The ACM gives these reasons:
- Be environmentally friendly. (Don’t ACM supporters use power sucking data centers often powered by coal?)(
- Electronic publications have more features. (One example is a way to charge a person who wants to read an article and cut off at the bud the daring soul pumping money into a photocopy machine to have an article to read whilst taking a break from the coffee and mobile phone habit.)
- Subscriptions are tanking.
I think the “subscriptions” bit is a way to say, “Print stuff is very expensive to produce and more expensive to sell.”
With the New York Times allegedly poised to use smart software to write its articles, when will the ACM dispense with member contributions?
Stephen E Arnold, November 6, 2023
Will Apple Weather Forecast Storms in Beijing?
November 6, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
The stock markets in the US have been surfing on the wave skimmers owned by the “magnificent seven.” The phrase refers to the FAANG crowd plus that AI fave NVidia and everyone’s favorite auto from Tesla. Has something gone subtly amiss at Apple, the darling of the hip graphics and “I love Linux” crowd?
“My weather app said it would be warm and sunny. What happened to smart software?” says the disenchanted young person. Rain is a good thing, not a bummer. Thanks, MidJourney. This image reminds me of those weird illustrations of waifs with big eyes. Inspiration is where one finds it.
I don’t know. I would point to one faint signal contained in the online write up “Why Apple’s Weather App Is So Bad.” The article makes it clear that weather forecasting is tricky. Software is not yet up to the of delivering accurate information about rain. Rain, I suppose, is one of those natural phenomena opaque to smart people, smart software, and smart acquisitions.
The statement in the write up which caught my attention was:
Over this time, this relentless weekend-only rain has also affirmed that Apple’s weather app is pretty much useless. Personally, I’ve learned that the app cannot distinguish between “light rain” and “rain,” that the percentages it spits out feel bogus, and to never trust it when it tells you what time the rain will stop. I’m not alone. My friends and coworkers also have various stories about how the app has let them down, or how sometimes it just won’t work. Some even talk about Dark Sky, a weather-forecasting app that Apple bought in 2020, with a mournful, wistful sadness, like a lost love. Apple says Dark Sky’s most beloved features have been integrated into its app, but Dark Sky fans aren’t convinced. Things were different then, they say. Things were better.
Did you spot the knife twist? Here it is, ripped from the heart of the paragraph:
sometimes it just won’t work
No big deal. A weather app. But Apple appeared to have ripped a page from the Google’s Management Handbook. Jon Stewart departed from Apple. The reasons are mysterious, a bit like the Dark Sky falling in Cupertino. I also noticed that Apple has a certain connection to China, particularly with regard to that most magical and almost unchanged candy bar phone. Granted it revolutionized Apple’s financial position, but does the contractor who assist me required a device to thaw the hearts of Apple lovers on a ski slope. (No raid predicted, I assume.)
Net net: Rain, Mr. Stewart, and the supply chain to China. Are these signals worth monitoring? Probably not. When I need a weather forecast, this dinobaby just looks out a window, not at a mobile phone.
Stephen E Arnold, November 6, 2023
Social Media: A No-Limits Zone Scammers
November 6, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Scams have plagued social media since its inception and it’s only getting worse. The FTC described the current state of social media scams in, “Social Media: A Golden Goose For Scammers.” Scammers and other bad actors are hiding in plain sight on popular social media platforms. The FTC’s Consumer Sentinel Network reported that one in four people lost money to scams that began on social media. In total people reported losing $2.7 billion to social media scams but the number could be greater because most cases aren’t reported.
It’s sobering the way bad actors target victims:
“Social media gives scammers an edge in several ways. They can easily manufacture a fake persona, or hack into your profile, pretend to be you, and con your friends. They can learn to tailor their approach from what you share on social media. And scammers who place ads can even use tools available to advertisers to methodically target you based on personal details, such as your age, interests, or past purchases. All of this costs them next to nothing to reach billions of people from anywhere in the world.”
Scammers don’t discriminate against age. Surprisingly, younger groups lost the most to bad actors. Forty-seven percent of people 18-19 were defrauded in the first six months of 2023, while only 38% of people 20-29 were hit. The numbers decrease with age and the decline of older generations not using social media.
The biggest reported scams were related to online shopping, usually people who tried to buy something off social media. The total loss was 44% from January-June 2023. Fake investment opportunities grossed the largest amount of profit for scammers at 53%. Most of the “opportunities” were cryptocurrency operations. Romance scams had the second highest losses for victims. These encounters start innocuous enough but always end with love bombing and money requests.
Take precautions such as making your social media profiles private, investigate if your friends suddenly ask you for money, don’t instantly fall in love with random strangers, and research companies before you make investments. It’s all old, yet sagacious advice for the digital age.
Whitney Grace, November 6, 2023
Is Utah a Step Behind As Meta Threads Picks Up Steam?
November 3, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
Now that TikTok has become firmly embedded in US culture, regulators are finally getting around to addressing its purported harms. Utah joins Arkansas and Indiana in suing parent company ByteDance even as the US Supreme Court considers whether social-media regulation violates the US Constitution. No, it is not the threat of Chinese spying that has Utah’s Division of Consumer Protection taking action this time. Rather, Digital Trends reports, “TikTok Sued by Utah Over Alleged Child Addiction Harm.” Yes, that’s a big concern too. Writer Treavor Mogg tells us:
“Utah’s filing focuses on the app’s alleged negative impact on children, claiming that TikTok ‘surreptitiously designed and deployed addictive features to hook young users into endlessly scrolling through the company’s app.’ It accused TikTok of wanting Utah citizens to ‘spend as much time on its app as possible so it can place advertisements in front of them more often,’ and alleges that the company ‘misled young users and their parents about the app’s dangers.’ In damning comments shared in a statement on Tuesday, Utah Attorney General Sean D. Reyes said: ‘I’m tired of TikTok lying to Utah parents. I’m tired of our kids losing their innocence and even their lives addicted to the dark side of social media. TikTok will only change if put at legal risk — and ‘at risk’ is where they have left our youth in exchange for profit and greed. Immediate and pervasive threats require swift and bold responses. We have a compelling case against TikTok. Our kids are worth the fight.’”
Reyes is not bluffing. The state has already passed laws to limit minors’ social media usage, with measures such as verified parental consent required for sign-ups and even making accounts and messages accessible to parents. Though many are concerned the latter is a violation of kids’ privacy, the laws are scheduled to go into effect next year.
But what about the other social media apps? Elon is not dragging his heels. And the Zuck? Always the Zuck.
Cynthia Murrell, November 3, 2023
The Brin-A-Loon: A Lofty Idea Is Ready to Take Flight
November 3, 2023
This essay is the work of a dumb humanoid. No smart software required.
I read “Sergey Brin’s 400-Foot Airship Reportedly Cleared for Takeoff.” I am not sure how many people know about Mr. Brin’s fascination with a balloon larger than Vladimir Putin’s yacht. The article reports:
While the concept of rigid airships and the basic airframe design are a throwback to pre-Hindenburg times of the early 1900s, Pathfinder 1 uses a frame made from 96 welded titanium hubs, joined by some 289 reinforced carbon fiber tubes. These materials advances keep it light enough to fly using helium, rather than hydrogen as a lift gas.
A high technology balloon flies near the Stanford campus, heading toward the Paul Allen Building. Will the aspiring network wizards notice the balloon? Probably not. Thanks, MidJourney. A bit like the movie posters I saw as a kid, but close enough for horseshoes and the Brin-A-Loon.
High tech. Plus helium (an increasingly scarce resource for the Brin-A-Loon and party balloons at Dollar General) does not explode. Remember that newsreel footage from New Jersey. Hydrogen, not helium.
The article continues:
According to IEEE Spectrum, the company has now been awarded the special airworthiness certificate required to fly this beast outdoors – at less than 1,500 ft (460 m) of altitude, and within the boundaries of Moffett Field and the neighboring Palo Alto Airport’s airspace.
Will there be UFO reports on TikTok and YouTube?
What’s the purpose of the Brin-A-Loon? The write up opines:
LTA says its chief focus is humanitarian aid; airships can get bulk cargo in and people out of disaster areas when roads and airstrips are destroyed and there’s no way for other large aircraft to get in and out. Secondary opportunities include slow point-to-point cargo operations, although the airships will be grounded if the weather doesn’t co-operate.
I remember the Loon balloons. The idea was to use Loon balloons to deliver Internet access in places like Sri Lanka, Puerto Rico, and Africa. Great idea. The hitch in the float along was that the weather was a bit of an issue. Oh, the software — like much of the Googley code floating around — was a bit problematic.
The loon balloons are gone. But the Brin-A-Loon is ready to take to the air. The craft may find a home in Ohio. Good for Ohio. And the Brinaloon will be filled with helium like birthday party balloons. Safer than hydrogen. Will the next innovation be the Brin-Train, a novel implementation of the 18th century Leland Stanford railroad engines?
Stephen E Arnold, November 3, 2023
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