Ebook Reality, What Is Hot Sells
June 22, 2010
I enjoyed “Barnes & Noble Confirms New $149 NOOK Wi-Fi, Drops 3G Model Price To $199.” The Barnes & Noble ebook reader is one of those adventures in US corporate innovation that provides fodder to the case studies used in MBA land. The news is that a price cut for the gizmo is in place. The article was quite circumspect and included the Barnes & Noble news release. Three points warrant the goose’s capturing them:
First, the price cut won’t make any difference. The product is not hot and the Apple iPad is. Without buzz, a price cut won’t work. Don’t believe me. Find a 12 year old. Offer the kid a Nook or an iPad. Which will the kid take? Let me know.
Second, companies that are essentially in the middle of deals often are not too good at manufacturing. Compare the first Kindle with the first iPad. Now compare the second Kindle with the Nook. Pick the better of the two devices and go back to the iPad. See any differences?
Third, lowering the cost will clear inventory. A price cut won’t stimulate Barnes & Noble’s revenue itch. The cost of the gizmo, the price cut, and the expensive in store promotions put this product in a tough spot.
So what’s the response of Amazon? Chopping the price of the Kindle. Boy, I am delighted I paid full price. Endears the company to me for sure.
Neither Barnes & Noble or Amazon are hardware pros. Are these devices the Pontiac Aztec’s of the ebook world? Just the view from Harrod’s Creek, and it is an opinion which makes the comments even less valuable.
Stephen E Arnold, June 22, 2010
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CNN and AP News Shift
June 21, 2010
I read “CNN Drops AP Wire Service.” You may want to check it out as well. I am not sure if I know what to make of the report. Let’s assume the story is accurate. Why would CNN drop a source that many organizations consider “must have”? One view is that AP is no longer a “must have” source. Another view is that CNN wants to innovate with its business model and its vendors have to be sufficiently agile to make CNN comfortable. A few years ago dropping the Associated Press would have been unthinkable. Its state house coverage is tough to duplicate. Maybe CNN wants to cut costs? When i killed a couple of hours between flights last year I realized that CNN is one expensive puppy to keep healthy. With YouTube’s recent news feistiness, CNN may be preparing for battle. If the story is a hoax, the AP is secure. If true, the AP may be showing some signs of losing its magnetism.
Stephen E Arnold, June 22, 2010
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A Googler on Prediction Markets
June 20, 2010
One of Endeca’s wizards jumped to Google. I have not paid much attention to what former Endeca Googlers do. The machinations of the Google are too far removed from the goose pond here in Harrod’s Creek. However, a reader sent me a link to the story “Why Can’t We Just Use Prediction Markets?” I read the article and did not find much with which to disagree. However, I asked myself, “Is this write up about prediction markets a personal opinion or one of those moments when a Googler sends a signal (intentionally or unintentionally) about notions that fascinate the users of MOMA.
For the fun of it, let’s assume that the article does reveal a fragment of Google’s thinking about the importance and utility of prediction markets. As you may know, a prediction market takes guesses and tries to figure out the future. There are many fancy ways to explain the method, but the idea is that some unidentified, latent magic exists when people offer opinions or bet on something. The data provide a glimpse of the future. I wish to point out that the US government has been known to think about prediction markets, and we know how well most US government decisions work out. Here in Harrod’s Creek we don’t need a predication market to figure out that there will be some unhappy people where the BP “spill” adds to the salty sea air zest.
Three items warrant comment for this alternative view of the write up.
First, the article suggests reviews (Amazon, are your with me here) can be manipulated by humans. The notion of a prediction method might generate a more useful indicator about a product. I think numerical recipes processing Big Data can yield some useful outputs. Google could make a run at Amazon and other review sites, right?
Second, the notion of using data to bet that I would like something also makes sense. I can see the Google kicking the notion of reviews into recommendation land. Again, I am thinking of Amazon and its recommendations. Maybe Google will be doing recommendations in its forthcoming Google TV service. What do you think about the Google predicting what rich media will make you a happy buyer or camper?
Finally, the concept of accuracy is delightful. Now accuracy in the Math Club works out to the old six nines confidence level. But accuracy also means a confidence score better than the lousy confidence score generated by other systems. If Google can generate a higher confidence score, that will give the company an edge. We are not talking about perfection. We are talking about “better than”, right?
My take.
Google will be rolling out more recommendations and predictive services. You may not use them directly, but these methods will allow the company to suggest that if you liked the NBC TV show about Google, you will definitely love these other TV shows. No humans needed to publish this type of indirect Consumers Report information. Many other uses as well I assert.
Now that’s my take away from the article.
Stephen E Arnold, June 20, 2010
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Another Mom Says Article about Google
June 17, 2010
eWeek demonstrated that it is not going to win the MBA version of Dancing with the Stars. The article “10 Web Companies That Google Should Acquire” is one weird set of “shoulds”. I could almost hear my mom and the other moms in the neighborhood shouting, “Sergey, Larry, you should do this.” Like the kids in my neighborhood, I don’t think Sergey or Larry will listen. Even if both zillionaires did listen, Google is preoccupied with telling countries what to do. You think Google is in listening mode that recommends buying Facebook and Twitter. Why stop there, eWeek tells Google like a legally inept and technically challenged mom that it should snap up Pandora, Zoho, and Expedia. Yikes. A look at Google’s acquisitions reveals that Google marches to the beat of its own drummer. Obvious candidates like Catch Media slip off the hook or out of the net. Not so obvious outfits get ignored in the list of Google’s acquisitions; for example, Transformics. Highly publicized buy outs get little follow up or analysis; for example, Jotspot. eWeek was once a fat, must read. Now I am not sure what it is, but this article sounds like mom-think. Wacky and ultimately ignored. If Google were to make a move on Facebook, I wonder if Microsoft would flex its muscles. Redmond has a piece of the Facebook action and Google doesn’t. Assume Google tries to buy Twitter. Think any regulator would wake up and investigate? I do. Articles designed to generate traffic and create clicks by putting each specious, wacky point on a separate Web page illustrate the sad state of search engine optimization, analytic thinking, and substantive commentary. Too bad. Times change.
Stephen E Arnold, June 17, 2010\
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June 2010 Columns by Stephen E Arnold
June 7, 2010
Short honk: A reader asked about the for fee columns I do. I don’t put these on my Web site until their value to the publisher has dropped to zero. You can find these columns in the hard copy publications and / or the publisher’s Web sites. Here’s the line up of my June 2010 columns which will run sometime in the next four to 12 weeks. Hey, that’s the way traditional publishing works.
- Information Today, “Google Emulates Bing and Endeca”. The idea is that Google has become a me-too player in the user experience game. The Web site is http://www.infotoday.com
- Information World Review, “A Wandering Yahoo: More Knee Action, Modest Progress”. The point of this write up is that Yahoo has to do more than wave its arms. Real revenue generation is needed, or the company may be in big trouble. Does anyone else see the shadow of Demand Media falling across the purple Yahooligan T shirt? The Web site for the publication is http://www.iwr.co.uk/
- KMWorld, “Google, Rich Media, and the Enterprise”. The idea is that one can learn something about what Google may do with its television / rich media technology by looking at its partner, SnapStream. I know. You never heard of SnapStream. That’s the point of the column. The Web site for the publication is http://www.kmworld.com.
- Smart Business Network, “Dialing in Facebook Privacy”. The column advises a business with a Facebook page about some basic double checks to make on Facebook’s privacy controls. Moving targets are fun, don’t you think? There are 18 or 19 magazines in the SBN network running my column. The 2010 columns are on the company’s Web site at http://www.sbnonline.com. You can see the 2009 SBN columns here.
One person pointed out that my blog sucks compared to these for fee columns. Let me clue you in. The blog is a marketing vehicle, and we crank out stories on a daily basis. Most of the stories in the blog are items that we find potentially useful for our monographs, client reports, speeches, and the for fee columns. Don’t beat up on the people I pay to produce the stories in Beyond Search. We are trying to keep the content flowing in the midst of our begging outside the local Dunkin’ Donuts.
I will try to post the July columns next month. I am a forgetful goose, however.
Stephen E Arnold, June 7, 2010
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Is Demand Media the Facebook of Content?
June 6, 2010
Update: 10 48 am. Link error fixed. The goose screws up again.
Newspapers have not flowed into market for fresh content. The company that has emerged as the Facebook of content may be Demand Media. Most Web surfers don’t know good content from bad content. Google’s smart software also has a tough time figuring out if a comment from an addled goose like me or a highly paid azure chip consultant is “better.” Hey, those former journalists and PR people are much better than a water fowl. At least that’s what the 20 somethings tell me.
The reality of Demand Media is that the company can sell content and generate traffic. Have you looked at Cracked.com or eHow.com today? To get some insight into the Demand Media juggernaut, you may want to read the Ad Age story “Bradford: Demand Media Will Take Out AOL First, Yahoo Later.” If Ms Bradford makes good on her assertion, AOL’s Googler-in-charge may want to ink that Microsoft deal as quickly as possible and become a venture capitalist. AOL is a weak sister in the ring with Demand Media.
For this addled goose, the most interesting comment in the write up was:
Every marketer will tell you they do not have enough content. We are in phase one of “let’s tell our story.” We will package it and make it easy to sell and easy to buy for advertisers. How do we provide content and integrate it with them? We will provide content for brands. Tide, for example. We’ve integrated their point of view into our experience. We’ve had a Tide stain expert sponsor a section. We want to be the biggest, best destination for brands. Our goal ultimately is, No. 1, be bigger than AOL, and No. 2 to be bigger than Yahoo.
Net net: trouble brewing in content land. Here are the war zones:
- Demand is emerging as the Readers Guide to Periodical Literature on steroids. Not only is it providing content, Demand has figured out how to let others index and expose the content. The Readers’ Guide was a great idea decades ago. Demand has leapfrogged the finding and accessing of popular content. Big implications has this action.
- The people with Web sites are not able to sustain content streams. Sure, anyone can do a blog for a short period of time. But blogs are black holes for content. New info must be produced continuously. Demand is in the custom content business and may emerge as the info juggernaut that newspapers and traditional news services failed to become.
- The Demand Media ecosystem is morphing. The company has technology, big name customers, writers, and digital information. These can be mixed in interesting ways. The competitors may not be able to match what Demand can do with its as-is assets.
Who can match Demand Media? AOL? Long shot. Yahoo? Long shot. Established publishing company? Longer shot. Established commercial database company like LexisNexis? Longest shot of all. Need reasons? Alas, not for free, gentle reader, not for free.
Stephen E Arnold, June 7, 2010
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FTC Reports, Mavens Squabble about Future and Past of Journalism
June 2, 2010
The addled goose does not want to get embroiled in a dust up between mavens. You may want to take sides. To get in the fray, first read “FTC Considers Publishing Public Data Online to Support the Future of Journalism.” The download the Federal Trade Commission’s report “Potential Policy Recommendations to Support the Reinvention of Journalism” from this link. Two experts discuss the report. But I shiver when a government agency opines about the reinvention of anything. The notion that journalism is in need of reinvention strikes me as somewhat novel. I do not perceive a lack of information. The term “journalism” strikes me as a simple way of addressing the financial problems of certain companies. Does the dust up impair the vision of tax payers who may be asked to fund journalism? Does the dust up cater to the needs of a certain large outfit in Mountain View? You make up your own mind.
Stephen E Arnold, June 2, 2010
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Google Blocked from Indexing a UK Newspaper
June 2, 2010
Short honk: I may have missed the item “Murdoch Blocks Google from Indexing London Times Articles.” News Corp. may be testing different approaches to making content available to search robots from the Google. The Wall Street Journal approach seems more stringent that the London Times approach. My view is that traffic will drop. The revenue from for-fee sign ups will take time to ramp up. The margins enjoyed in the salad days of newspapers may be difficult, expensive, and time consuming to rebuild. This will be interesting to watch. Google has time on its side, however. On the side of News Corp. are the many legal hassles that Google faces. Legal eagles may change Google’s methods helping to make News Corp. the winner again. On the other hand, Google may win and the News Corp. end up in a worse mess than its management envisioned.
Stephen E Arnold, June 2, 2010
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Guardian Goes Open
May 26, 2010
Darned interesting write up this: “What We Can Learn From the Guardian’s New Open Platform”. Some of the GigaOM analysis roils the water in the goose pond. This particular article makes several good points. The key for us in Harrod’s Creek was this comment:
The vehicle for this change is its “Open Platform,” which launched last week and involves an open application programming interface (API) that developers can use to integrate Guardian content into services and applications. The newspaper company has been running a beta version of the platform for a little over a year now, but took the experimental label off the project on Thursday and announced that it’s “open for business.” By that The Guardian means it’s looking for partners that want to use its content in return for licensing fees or to enter into a revenue-sharing agreement of some kind related to advertising.
The write up wants the Guardian to do more. My hunch is that the Guardian will do more. Prudence is not a virtue in Silicon Valley. It is in Manchester. What can one learn from British reserve? Quite a lot I think.
Stephen E Arnold, May 26, 2010
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Oracle Updates Its Enterprise Publishing System
May 25, 2010
I know that the world outside of Harrod’s Creek, Kentucky, believes that Oracle is a database company. I have pointed out that the company has done its best to baffle geese like me, particularly with its search technology.
I wanted to call your attention to a news item that has not been picked up and bruited far and wide. The write up’s title is “Oracle Introduces Oracle Documaker 11.5.” The upgrade pushes Oracle into the rarified air breathed by Hewlett Packard, StreamServe, Mark Logic, and a handful of other companies.
Forget desktop publishing and Web content management. These systems and Oracle’s deliver industrial strength document generation from repositories, business logic, and assorted bells and whistles unheard by the InDesign crowd.
Among the new release’s features are:
- Support for Microsoft Word as an authoring tool
- A rules-based system so content can be repurposed
- Multiple output options, including hard copy and Web pages.
Will Exstream Software, InfoPrint (a brand new identify is coming and new features from what I hear), and Mark Logic roll over and die? Not likely, but Oracle seems to recognize that unless it defends this important segment, the company can lose and lose big.
Stephen E Arnold, May 25, 2010
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