Game Over Mode: Consumers and Searching
April 4, 2013
This morning I read “As Web Search Goes Mobile, Competitors Chip at Google’s Lead.” Keep in mind that when the link goes dead you will need the paper edition of the story on pages A 1 and A 4 of the April 4, 2013 issue or a for fee password to the New York Times’s online service.)
The main point is that mobile is surging. For many reasons, mobile search does not work the way desktop search and Web surfing worked when Backrub was bubbling toward Google. The article identifies the geolocation trend where coordinates coupled with some data about user behavior can deliver a place to buy coffee.
The article then says:
No longer do consumers want to search the Web like the index of a book — finding links at which a particular keyword appears. They expect new kinds of customized search, like that on topical sites such as Yelp, TripAdvisor or Amazon, which are chipping away at Google’s hold. Google and its competitors are trying to develop the knowledge and comprehension to answer specific queries, not just point users in the right direction.
The story then points out that there are 30 trillion Web address which is definitely quite a few places to index content. Searching a massive index with 2.5 words just does not work for “consumers.”
The story identifies social systems which put a person closer to someone or some information from someone which answers the user’s question. The wrap up to the article quotes a Google “fellow” who correctly states a Google truism:
“Most people have this very strong Google habit,” he said. “I go there every day and it gives me information I want, so it’s a self-reinforcing cycle. Not anyone can come in and just do those things.”
So what exactly is happening in consumer search? Outfits like Amazon and LinkedIn look like they are growing and presumably taking traffic from Google. On the other hand, Google seems confident that its market share and its remarkable diversity of ways to present information to users is in pretty good shape. Is this a chess-type draw, a paradox, or an analysis which makes search almost impossible to discuss without getting lost in clicks, segments, traffic, and user behavior data?
My view is that search has become a word which is acceptable in some circles and the equivalent of a curse word in others. Consumer wants answers to questions, and according to some experts, answers to questions the user does not know she yet has formulated. Vendors want revenue. Advertisers want people to buy their products and services. Teens want whatever teens want. Each tiny grouping of online users which can be labeled has search needs.
The problem is that figuring out exactly what the “need” is in a specific context is a field where further research and innovation are needed.
Several observations:
First, some users who need information have a difficult time explaining what is needed, when, and why. Much of the arm wrestling about search is a direct result of gathering information from users and then trying to develop a system which works without bankrupting the company, failing to reach users in the first place, or providing a service which does not work very well.
Second, specialist users have particular information needs in certain contexts. Consumer systems have chopped out advanced search as a spotlighted option. The trend is to monitor and data to predict what a user in a particular category wants under certain conditions. Lawyers, engineers, and health researchers want a system that has information which can be trusted and provides the means of matching the indexed information to the query. Users working under severe time pressure needs systems which use a bookshelf of math texts to process a stream of information and “discover” or at least highlight what’s important. And there are other use cases.
As a person moves from role to role and context to context, how can a single search engine keep up? The answer—no matter how promising Amazon and LinkedIn are—is that “search” is an unsolved problem for many situations. Google is working to handle a number of use cases, but like other services which struggle with variety and rapidly changing needs, there is no guarantee that it can retain its grip on its ad-centric vision.
My hunch is that we are entering a period in which Balkanization will characterize search in most markets, including the consumer sector. What I am monitoring includes:
- An increasing interest in funding search and content processing systems by entrepreneurs or die hard risk takers.
- Rapid flip flopping of vendors from service to service, sector to sector in the hope of hitting on the right combination of technology, services, and marketing to open a big revenue pipeline.
- Widespread appropriation of buzzwords, terms, jargon, and neologisms in an attempt to capture user attention.
As these three issues unfold, I think the big players will continue to grow. That’s good news for Google and others of its ilk. I think a handful of upstarts will gain traction. Over time, one of these newcomers may morph into massive success. However, as the Balkanization accelerates in the shadow of Amazon, Google, and similar companies—the need for integration moves to center stage.
The big home run in search and content processing may be that search really does not change all that much. Line extension, oligopolies, or a modern large scale roll up similar to what IBM seems to be doing in analytics.
What do roll ups and fuzzy marketing mean for a person who needs information? I think we are now in an era when some searchers will have to do the same type of tiresome research that was part of the traditional library experience. The difference is that the work is done online. The problem is that the percentage of users who will put in the effort to get a correct answer is likely to be small compared to those who are happy with what Facebook or LinkedIn provides.
At lunch again, I heard the term “sheeple.” I am beginning to understand the concept. Maybe the giants today know that search is really in “game over” mode?
Stephen E Arnold, April 4, 2013
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