US Broadband: Good News or Some Obvious News
December 29, 2015
I read “Home Broadband 2015.” The write up is from Pew, a US research outfit. What’s interesting about Pew is that its results are used by some MBAs, former middle school teachers, and unemployed “real” journalists as evidence about the world. You know. If the US is like this, then Sudan is going to be just the same. I find this a somewhat touching approach to the world’s uptake of online connectivity. Life is just easier to manage if the Pew view is the lens through which one perceives behavior.
Now to the research.
The write up reports:
Three notable changes relating to digital access and digital divides are occurring in the realm of personal connectivity, according to new findings from Pew Research Center surveys. First, home broadband adoption seems to have plateaued. It now stands at 67% of Americans, down slightly from 70% in 2013, a small but statistically significant difference which could represent a blip or might be a more prolonged reality. This change moves home broadband adoption to where it was in 2012.
Okay, plateau is a metaphor for “hit a brick wall”. The implications are likely to be important for those not in the top one percent who want to buy a whizzy new iPhone to figure out what gifts are selling. (If it is not on the shelf, isn’t that a clue?)
The write up says:
Second, this downtick in home high-speed adoption has taken place at the same time there has been an increase in “smartphone-only” adults – those who own a smartphone that they can use to access the internet, but do not have traditional broadband service at home.
Maybe this explains the somewhat energetic efforts of outfits like the Alphabet Google thing to find additional sources of revenue. Loon balloons, self driving autos, and solving death come to mind. Nothing will sell like a pill to cure death. The device shift makes it harder to put ads in front of eye balls not interested in viewing the commercial messages. With home or desktop anchor surfing stagnating, the business models have to be tweaked. Pronto.
Also, I noted:
Third, 15% of American adults report they have become “cord cutters” – meaning they have abandoned paid cable or satellite television service.
This datum suggests to me that there may be some revenue pain for the purveyors of cords.
The write up is long. I had to click eight times to read the summary. The post includes many nifty, pale graphics. These are somewhat difficult to read on the mobile devices which the write up explains are the cat’s pajamas with Star Wars’ characters on the synthetic flannel.
I found the information about non broadband users’ perceptions of what’s important about having a zippy Internet connection. The surprise is that in 2015 40 percent of the sample for this question want to use high speed Internet to access government services.
Hard to read? Too bad.
This makes sense. Have you, gentle reader, attempted to interact with a US government agency in person? Give it a whirl. The problem is that the US government Web sites are not particularly helpful for many situations. Run a query on USA.gov to see what I mean.
The discussion about cost seems obvious. With the notion of income disparity squeezing air time on TV news from the coverage of the NFL and Lady Gaga, I find the idea that those without resources find broadband too expensive. Okay. Obvious to me, but I think the Pew data make the point. The sky is blue, but wait, let me check a survey to make sure. Those without graduate degrees, jobs or sources of income, and the knowledge required to achieve cash flow are affected by costs. Got it.
The good news is that on page 7 Pew explains its methodology. Most of the hyperbole-infused marketers skip this step. I also found the data table on page 8 of the online report interesting. Let’s have more data tables and less of the dancing around the flat lines and inequality stuff.
Worth reading if one wants some obvious points reiterated. Google and other ad supported services will not work unless the ads flow. That’s the take away for me.
Stephen E Arnold, December 29, 2015
Marketing Analytics Holds Many Surprises
December 29, 2015
What I find interesting is how data analysts, software developers, and other big data pushers are always saying things like “hidden insights await in data” or “your business will turn around with analytics.” These people make it seem like it is big thing, when it is really the only logical outcome that could entail from employing new data analytics. Marketing Land continues with this idea in the article, “Intentional Serendipity: How Marketing Analytics Trigger Curiosity Algorithms And Surprise Discoveries.”
Serendipitous actions take place at random and cannot be predicted, but the article proclaims with the greater amount of data available to marketers that serendipitous outcomes can be optimized. Data shows interesting trends, including surprises that make sense but were never considered before the data brought them to our attention.
“Finding these kinds of data surprises requires a lot of sophisticated natural language processing and complex data science. And that data science becomes most useful when the patterns and possibilities they reveal incorporate the thinking of human beings, who contribute the two most important algorithms in the entire marketing analytics framework — the curiosity algorithm and the intuition algorithm.”
The curiosity algorithm is the simple process of triggering a person’s curious reflex, then the person can discern what patterns can lead to a meaningful discovery. The intuition algorithm is basically trusting your gut and having the data to back up your faith. Together these make explanatory analytics help people change outcomes based on data.
It follows up with a step-by-step plan about how to organize your approach to explanatory analytics, which is a basic business plan but it is helpful to get the process rolling. In short, read your data and see if something new pops up.
Whitney Grace, December 29, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Searching Google Drive Is Easier than Ever
December 29, 2015
Google search is supposed to be the most reliable and accurate search, so by proxy Google Drive should be easy to search as well, right? Wrong! Google Drive is like a cartoon black hole. It has an undisclosed amount of space and things easily get lost in it. Fear not, Google Drive users for Tech Republic has posted a nifty guide on how to use Google Drive’s search and locate your lost spreadsheets and documents: “Pro Tip: How To Use Google Drive’s New And Improved Search.”
Google drive can now be searched with more options: owner, keywords. Item name, shared with, date modified, file type, and located in. The article explains the quickest way to search Google Drive is with the standard wildcard. It is the search filter where you add an asterisk to any of the listed search types and viola, the search results list all viable options. The second method is described as the most powerful option, because it is brand new advanced search feature. By clicking on the drop down arrow box in the search box, you can access filters to limit or expand your search results.
“For anyone who depends upon Google Drive to store and manage their data, the new search tool will be a major plus. No longer will you have to dig through a vast array of search results to find what you’re looking for. Narrow the field down with the new Drive search box.”
The new search features are pretty neat, albeit standard for most databases. Why did it take Google so long to deploy them in the first place?
Whitney Grace, December 29, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Another Good Reason for Diversity in Tech
December 29, 2015
Just who decides what we see when we search? If we’re using Google, it’s a group of Google employees, of course. The Independent reports, “Google’s Search Results Aren’t as Unbiased as You Think—and a Lack of Diversity Could Be the Cause.” Writer Doug Bolton points to a TEDx talk by Swedish journalist Andreas Ekström, in which Ekström describes times Google has, and has not, counteracted campaigns to deliberately bump certain content. For example, the company did act to decouple racist imagery from searches for “Michelle Obama,” but did nothing to counter the association between a certain Norwegian murderer and dog poop. Boldon writes:
“Although different in motivation, the two campaigns worked in exactly the same way – but in the second, Google didn’t step in, and the inaccurate Breivik images stayed at the top of the search results for much longer. Few would argue that Google was wrong to end the Obama campaign or let the Breivik one run its course, but the two incidents shed light on the fact that behind such a large and faceless multi-billion dollar tech company as Google, there’s people deciding what we see when we search. And in a time when Google has such a poor record for gender and ethnic diversity and other companies struggle to address this imbalance (as IBM did when they attempted to get women into tech by encouraging them to ‘Hack a Hairdryer’), this fact becomes more pressing.”
The article notes that only 18 percent of Google’s tech staff worldwide are women, and that it is just two percent Hispanic and one percent black. Ekström’s talk has many asking what unperceived biases lurk in Google’s algorithms, and some are calling on the company anew to expand its hiring diversity. Naturally, though, any tech company can only do so much until more girls and minorities are encouraged to explore the sciences.
Cynthia Murrell, December 29, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Latest Perspectives Version from Tom Sawyer
December 29, 2015
Data visualization and analysis firm Tom Sawyer announces the latest release of their flagship platform in, “Tom Sawyer Software Releases Tom Sawyer Perspectives, Version 7.1, .NET Edition.” There is a new “timeline” view, and they promise a boost to layout performance. The press release specifies:
“Users can dynamically manipulate sliders in a timeline view to choose a specific time period. Once a time period is chosen, the elements within other views are filtered and updated accordingly to hone in on events based on time of occurrence.
“Users can now see how data progresses through time and focus on the events they are most interested in. Visualize the spread of an epidemic, the progression of crime in a city, or uncover how information disseminates across an organization’s departments.
“Tom Sawyer Perspectives, Version 7.1 also includes enhanced examples and user experience. New Crime Network, Commodity Flow, and Road Safety example applications are included, the look and feel of the tutorial applications is modernized, and neighborhood retrieval is improved. In addition, many quality and performance enhancements have been made in this release, including up to 16 percent improvement in layout performance.”
The write-up includes screenshots and links to further information, so interested readers should check it out. Founded in 1992, Tom Sawyer helps organizations in fields from intelligence to healthcare make connections and draw conclusions from data. The company maintains offices around the world, but makes its headquarters in Berkeley, California. They are also hiring as of this writing.
Cynthia Murrell, December 29, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
NLP and Smart Software: Everyone Becomes a Big Data Expert
December 28, 2015
A new company seeks to make everyone a big data expert. You can get the full scoop in “Detecting Consumer Decisions within Messy Data: Software Analyzes Online Chatter to Predict Health Care Consumers’ Behavior.” The company with the natural language technology and proprietary smart software is dMetrics.
Here’s the premise:
DecisionEngine, Nemirovsky [dMetrics wizard] says, better derives meaning from text because the software — which now consists of around 2 million lines of code — is consistently trained to recognize various words and synonyms, and to interpret syntax and semantics. “Online text is incredibly tough to analyze properly,” he says. “There’s slang, misspellings, run-on sentences, and crazy punctuation. Discussion is messy.”
Now, how does the system work?
Visualize the software as a three-tiered funnel, Nemirovsky suggests, with more refined analysis happening as the funnel gets narrower. At the top of the funnel, the software mines all mentions of a particular word or phrase associated with a certain health care product, while filtering out “noise” such as fake websites and users, or spam. The next level down involves separating out commenters’ personal experiences over, say, marketing materials and news. The bottom level determines people’s decisions and responses, such as starting to use a product — or even considering doing so, experiencing fear or confusion, or switching to a different medication.
The company wants to expand beyond health care. Worth monitoring.
Stephen E Arnold, December 28, 2015
Watson Weekly: What? No Meth?
December 28, 2015
I read “What Can I eat in Pregnancy? App Aims to Answer with Help from IBM’s Watson?” Consider that folks with smartphones constitute a modest percentage of the world population. Health, as I understand the fine outputs of my health care providers, depends on socio-economic background. Also, a person with access to the Google can find out what foods are okay to eat when pregnant. Sure, there are ads, but Google presents reasonably useful information when one queries, “pregnant mother diet.” No app is needed for this type of research. Heck, one can just ask around.
Nevertheless, the potent cognitive computing outfit powered by the question answering Watson is delivering pregnant person diet advice via a smartphone app. There’s an app for that remains an accurate statement.
The write up points out:
The Nutrino app, powered by IBM’s supercomputer Watson, claims to guide women through pregnancy. For $15 (£10) for the duration of pregnancy, the app gives personalized meal recommendations and nutritional support by combining Nutrino’s nutrition database and Watson’s natural language capabilities.
If one is a pregnant and the owner of a smartphone, the price for the app is no problem. The pace of IBM innovation never slows. Now about the pregnant folks in Umgababa, South Africa? That’s in the DwaZulu Natal province.
The write up points out:
Nutrino is likely to appeal to women who already track their diet and exercise. The fitbit and Apple Watch generation may prefer to get their information about pregnancy by talking to their wrist rather than chatting to their mums. But even Watson may struggle to provide the common sense and personal experience that complements scientific knowledge.
“Struggle.” Yep, I would say that is a good word.
Stephen E Arnold, December 28, 2015
Analytics Predictions for 2016
December 28, 2015
Well, there is one omission: Predictive analytics. The truth is revealed in “Top 5 Analytics Predictions for 2016.” I like the idea of focusing on five prognostications.
Here is what’s ahead in the analytics sector. Close the flap on your SAS disks:
- Machine learning is “established” in the enterprise.
- The Internet of Things “hits reality.”
- Big Data enriches modeling.
- Cybersecurity is improved via analytics.
- Analytics drives increased industry academic interaction.
A few observations.
Machine learning is a synonym for artificial intelligence and smart software. My experience is that software has included smarter functions for years. Remember Clippy? Don’t you love those disappearing options in Adobe “creative” products?
The Internet of Things remains a bit of a baffler to me. I am not sure about a smart refrigerator, but I am okay with machine tools reporting their “health” to a person who wants to keep downtime to a minimum. Unfortunately that type of IoT application is moving, just not with the pace of an intrepid millennial on the Stairmaster.
The notion of enriching modeling is interesting. The push is to make intelligence systems deliver outputs in a semi or automated fashion. Focusing on the intermediary—that is, the modeler—reminds me of the non user friendly tasks an analyst must perform before outputs are available.
On the cybersecurity front, analytics have been a major thrust for years. I assume that when one predicts the future, information about the past and what’s currently in use are not pre-requisites.
The academic industry thing is an interesting way to make clear that folks with knowledge of math, statistics, and related expertise are in short supply. Universities are in the financial services business. I am not sure their core competency is producing more math types quickly. Well, maybe the Kahn Academy can pick up the slack. C* algebras are really trivial and can be learned in a four minute video.
Quite a list.
Stephen E Arnold, December 30, 2015
New Credit Card Feature Prevents Fraud
December 28, 2015
December is lauded as the most wonderful time due to that warm, fuzzy feeling and also because retail chains across the world will be operating in the black at the end of the year. Online shopping has shown record sales this year, especially since shoppers do not want to deal with crowds and limited stock. Shopping online allows them to shop from the convenience of their homes, have items delivered to their front door, and find great deals. Retail chains are not the only ones who love the holidays. Cyber criminals also enjoy this season, because people are less concerned with their persona information. Credit card and bank account numbers are tossed around without regard, creating ample game for identity theft.
While credit card companies have created more ways to protect consumers, such as the new microchip in cards, third party security companies have also created ways to protect consumers. Tender Armor is a security company with a simple and brilliant fraud prevention solution.
On the back of every credit card is a security code that is meant to protect the consumer, but it has its drawbacks. Tender Armor created a CVVPlus service that operates on the same principle as the security code, except of having the same code, it rotates on daily basis. Without the daily code, the credit card is useless. If a thief gets a hold of your personal information, Tender Armor’s CVVPlus immediately notifies you to take action. It is ingenious in its simplicity.
Tender Armor made this informative animated to explain how CVVPlus works: Tender Armor: CVVPlus.
In order to use Tender Armor, you must pay for an additional service on your credit card. With the increased risk in identity theft, it is worth the extra few bucks.
Whitney Grace, December 28, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Islamic State Is Now a Convenient App
December 28, 2015
It used to be that if you wanted to be an enemy of western civilization you had to have ties to a derelict organization or even visit an enemy nation. It was difficult, especially with the limits of communication in pre-Internet days. Western Union and secret radio signals only went so far, but now with the Internet insurgent recruitment is just a few mouse clicks away or even an app download. The Telegraph reports that the “Islamic State Releases Its Own Smartphone App” to spread propaganda and pollute Islam’s true message.
Islamic State (Isil) released an Android app to disseminate the terrorist group’s radical propaganda. The app was brought to light by hacktivist Ghost Security Group, who uncovered directions to install the app on the encrypted message service Telegram. Ghost Security says that the app publishes propaganda from Amaq News Agency, the Islamic State’s propaganda channel, such as beheadings and warnings about terrorist attacks. It goes to show that despite limited resources, if one is tech savvy and has an Internet connection the possibilities are endless.
” ‘They want to create a broadcast capability that is more secure than just leveraging Twitter and Facebook,’ ” Michael Smith of Kronos Advisory, a company that acts as a conduit between GhostSec and the US government, told CS Monitor.
‘[Isil] has always been looking for a way to provide easy access to all of the material.’ ”
Isil might have the ability to create propaganda and an app, but they do have a limited reach. In order to find this app, one has to dig within the Internet and find instructions. Hacktivist organizations like Ghost Security and Anonymous are using their technology skills to combat terrorist organizations with success. Most terrorist group propaganda will not be found within the first page of search results, one has to work to find them, but not that hard.
Whitney Grace, December 28, 2015
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
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