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The Gray Lady: Calling the Winner of the AI Race

Editor’s Note: Written by a genuine dinobaby with some editorial inputs from Stephen E Arnold’s tech elves.

I love it when “real journalists” predict winners. Does anyone remember the Dewey thing? No, that’s okay. I read “How Siri, Alexa and Google Assistant Lost the AI Race.” The title reminds me of English 101 “How to” essays. (A publisher once told me that “how to” books were the most popular non fiction book type. Today the TikTok video may do the trick.)

The write up makes a case for OpenAI and ChatGPT winning the smart software race. Here’s a quote I circled:

The excitement around chatbots illustrates how Siri, Alexa and other voice assistants — which once elicited  similar enthusiasm — have squandered their lead in the A.I. race.

Squandering a lead is not exactly losing a race, at least here in Kentucky. Races can be subject to skepticism, but in the races I have watched, a horse wins, gets a ribbon, the owner receives hugs and handshakes, and publicity. Yep, publicity. Good stuff.

The write up reports or opines:

Many of the big tech companies are now racing to come up with responses to ChatGPT.

Is this me-too innovation? My thought is that the article is not a how-to; it’s an editorial opinion.

My reaction to the story is that the “winner” is the use of OpenAI type technology with a dialogue-type interface. The companies criticized for squandering a lead are not dead in their stable stall. Furthermore, smart software is not new. The methods have been known for years. What’s new is that computational resources are more readily available. Content is available without briar patches like negotiating permissions and licenses to recycle someone else’s data. Code libraries are available. Engineers and programmers are interested in doing something with the AI Lego blocks. People with money want to jump on the high speed train even if the reliability and the destination are not yet known.

I would suggest that the Gray Lady’s analysis is an somewhat skewed way to point out that some big tech outfits have bungled and stumbled.

The race, at least here in Harrod’s Creek, is not yet over. I am not sure the nags are out of their horse carriers yet. Why not criticize in the context of detailed, quite specific technical, financial, and tactical factors? I will answer my own question, “The Gray Lady has not gotten over how technology disrupted the era of big newspapers as gatekeepers.”

How quickly will the Gray Lady replace “real journalists” (often with agendas) with cheaper, faster software.

I will answer my own question, “Faster than some of the horses running in the Kentucky Derby this year.”

Stephen E Arnold, March 17, 2023

The Google: Is Thinking Clearly a Core Competency at the Company

Editor’s Note: This short write up is the work of a real, semi-alive dinobaby, not smart software.

The essay “The Nightmare of AI-Powered Gmail Has Arrived.” The main point of the article is that Google is busy putting smart software in a number of its services. I noted this paragraph:

Google is retrofitting its product line with AI. Last month, it demonstrated its take on a chatty version of its search engine. Yesterday, it shared more details about AI-assisted Gmail and Google Docs. In Gmail, there are tools that will attempt to compose entire emails or edit them for tone as well as tools for ingesting and summarizing long threads.

Nope. Not interested.

The image of three managers with their hair on fire was generated by https://scribblediffusion.com/. My hunch is that a copyright troll will claim the image as their clients’ original work. I sticking with the smart software as the artist.

I underlined this statement as well:

Most interesting are the ways in which these features seem to be in conflict with one another.

What’s up?

1. A Code Red at Google and suggestions from senior management to get in gear with smart software
2. Big boy Microsoft continued to out market the Google (not too tough to do in my opinion)
3. The ChatGPT juggernaut continued to operate like a large electro-magnet, pulling users from folks who has previously accrued significant experience with large language models.

The write up makes one point in my opinion. Google’s wizards are not able to think clearly. As the article concludes:

For example, in offices already burdened by inefficient communication and processes, it’s easy to see how reducing the cost of creating content might produce weird consequences and externalities. Tim can now send four times as many emails as he used to. Does he have four times as much to say?

Net net: Wow, the Google. The many and possibly overlapping smart services remind me of the outputs from a high school science club struggling to get as many Science Fair project done in the final days before the judging starts. Wow, the Google.

Stephen E Arnold, March 16, 2023

Ethical AI: Let Us Not Take Our Eye Off the Money Ball, Shall We?

What full-time job includes an automatic ejection seat?

Flying an F 35? Yes.

Working on ethical and responsible smart software? Yes. A super duper ejection module too.

I wonder if Google’s enabling of the stochastic parrot conference and the Dr. Timnit Gebru incident made an impression on Microsoft? Hmmm. I the information in “Microsoft Just Laid Off One of Its Responsible AI Teams” is accurate, Microsoft’s management has either [a] internalized the Google approach or [b] missed the memorandum describing downstream effects of deprecating “responsible AI.”

The image above was output by craiyon.com. True, one of the Beyond Search researchers added the evil red eye and the pile of cash. We think the evil eye and the money illustrate where ethical behavior ranks among the priorities of some senior executives.

The write up by two of the Land of Bank Crashes favorites reports:

Microsoft laid off its entire ethics and society team within the artificial intelligence organization as part of recent layoffs that affected 10,000 employees across the company … The move leaves Microsoft without a dedicated team to ensure its AI principles are closely tied to product design …

The article is about 1,500 words, and I suggest you work through the essay/news/chest thumper.

Several observations:

1. The objective is control, not ethical control. Just control.
2. Smart software knows how to string together words, not what the words connote.
3. MBAs with incentive plans view ethics as an interesting concept but one with the appeal of calculating their bonuses on an Amiga computer.

Net net: What exactly is the news about a big tech company trimming its ethics professionals? I thought it was standard operating procedure.

PS. I admire the begging for sign up pleas as well. Classy for some “real news” write ups. Ejection seat activated.

Stephen E Arnold, March 15, 2023

Interesting Critique of the Google

I know there are other browsers available. For many people Google Chrome is THE browser. Microsoft figured out that Credge was cheaper and probably less likely to be zapped by the Google. Vivaldi is a browser working to attract users and provide a less money-centric software cocoon for online users. It too uses the Chromium engine.

I read “Vivaldi Co-Founder: Advertisers Stole the Internet from Us.” The article is mostly content marketing; nevertheless, I noted a handful of assertions and factoids I found thought provoking.

Here are a few. My observation about the comment appears in italics.

… part of the issue companies like Google may have is that Vivaldi blocks a lot of tracking and gets around advertisements in novel ways. No surprise I believe.

Android’s Privacy Sandbox can track users by creating an offline profile on them and show relevant advertisements based on that. No surprise I believe. Google dies without ad revenue.

… data can be used to influence how people vote, à la Cambridge Analytica. No surprise. Control the information, gain power.

the current state of advertising is less profitable for sites now than it was before widespread tracking was in place. No surprise but Google benefits because it “owns” the rights to charge people to enter and leave Club Ad via its swinging door.

The situation is clear: A small company faces a long slog up Mt. Everest without cold weather gear. Does the government of Nepal care? Nope.

Stephen E Arnold, March 14, 2023

If Google Is Online Advertising, Why Does Malvertising Thrive?

I think this question struck me after reading a few paragraphs of “Malvertising on Google Ads: It’s Hiding in Plain Site.” The essay is designed to cause a reader to embrace the commerce malware service provided by Kolide. How do I know? Here’s the statement that tipped me off:

Want to see how Kolide can get your entire fleet updated, patched and compliant? Watch Kolide’s on-demand demo today.

Despite the content marketing sway in the article, I noted an interesting comment about Google. After citing a Googley statement about the online ad giant’s good intentions and methods for dealing with malware, the write up says:

Unfortunately, the search engine does not provide a definition nor examples of what falls under “egregious violations.” And given how easy it is for bad actors to simply make a new account when a new one is shut down, this approach doesn’t meet the requirements for reliability or scalability. Still, when you look at things from Google’s perspective, these policies make sense.

In my opinion, Google happily delivers malvertising because Google sells advertising. The company does not want to harm its revenue. Just as the pop ads running on top of YouTube videos, Google is not losing revenue. The company says, “No more overlays in a few months.” Why? Is it because Google will introduce Amazon-Twitch style unskippable ads, insert more unskippable commercials in videos, and add more end-of-video ads? Absolutely. Google is not going to give up revenue in my opinion.

Shifting the responsibility for identifying and remediating issues with Google ad-delivered malware is good for cyber security companies and super good for Google. My view is that we have one more example of specious behavior from a company unable to get its ethical compass focused on any direction but its revenue.

Stephen  E Arnold, March 13, 2023

The Confluence: Big Tech, Lobbyists, and the US Government

I read “Biden Admin’s Cloud Security Problem: It Could Take Down the Internet Like a Stack of Dominos.” I was thinking that the take down might be more like the collapses of outfits like Silicon Valley Bank.

I noted this statement about the US government, which is

embarking on the nation’s first comprehensive plan to regulate the security practices of cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Oracle, whose servers provide data storage and computing power for customers ranging from mom-and-pop businesses to the Pentagon and CIA.

Several observations:

1. Lobbyists have worked to make it easy for cloud providers and big technology companies to generate revenue is an unregulated environment.
2. Government officials have responded with inaction and spins through the revolving door. A regulator or elected official today becomes tomorrow’s technology decision maker and then back again.
3. The companies themselves have figured out how to use their money and armies of attorneys to do what is best for the companies paying them.

What’s the consequence? Wonderful wordsmithing is one consequence. The problem is that now there are Mauna Loas burbling in different places.

Three of them are evident: The fragility of Silicon Valley approach to innovation. That’s reactive and imitative at this time. The second issue is the complexity of the three body problem resulting from lobbyists, government methods, and monopolistic behaviors. Commercial enterprises have become familiar with the practice of putting their thumbs on the scale. Who will notice?

What will happen? The possible answers are not comforting. Waving a magic wand and changing what are now institutional behaviors established over decades of handcrafting will be difficult.

I touch on a few of the consequences in an upcoming lecture for the attendees at the 2023 National Cyber Crime Conference.

Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2023

Is Intelware Square Dancing in Israel?

It is a hoe down. Allemande Left. Do Si Do. Circle Left.  Now Promenade. I can hear the tune in “NSO Group Co-Founder Emerges As New Majority Owner.” My toe was tapping when I read:

Omri Lavie – the “O” in NSO Group … appears to have emerged as the company’s new majority owner. Luxembourg filings show that Lavie’s investment firm, Dufresne Holding, is – for now – the sole owner of a Luxembourg-based holding company that ultimately owns NSO Group.

What’s the company’s technology enable? The Guardian says:

Pegasus can hack into any phone without leaving an obvious trace, enabling users to gain access to a person’s encrypted calls and chats, photographs, emails, and any other information held on a phone. It can also be used to turn a phone into a remote listening device by controlling its recorder.

Is the Guardian certain that this statement embraces the scope of the NSO Group’s capabilities? I don’t know. But the real newspaper sounds sure that it has its facts lined up.

Was the transition smooth? Well, there may have been some choppy water as the new owner boarded. The article reports:

[The] move follows in the wake of multiple legal fights between NSO and a US-based financial company that is now known as Treo, which controls the equity fund that owns a majority stake in NSO. A person familiar with the matter said Treo had been alerted to the change in ownership of the company’s shares in a recent letter by Lavie, which appears to have caught the financial group by surprise. The person said Treo was still trying to figure out the financial mechanism that Lavie had used to assume control of the shares, but that it believed the company’s financial lenders had, in effect, ceded control of the group to the Israeli founder.

I find it interesting when the milieu of intelligence professionals intersects with go-go money people. Is Treo surprised.

Allemande Right. Do Si Do. Promenade home.

Stephen E Arnold, March 10, 2023

Google: Code Redder Because … Microsoft Markets AI Gooder

Don’t misunderstand. I think the Chat GPT search wars are more marketing than useful functionality for my work. You may have a different viewpoint. That’s great. Just keep in mind that Google’s marvelous Code Red alarm was a response to Microsoft marketing. Yep, if you want to see the Sundar and Prabhakar Duo do some fancy dancing, just get your Microsoft rep to mash the Goose Google button.

Someone took this advice and added “AI” to the truly wonderful Windows 11 software. I read “Microsoft Adds “AI” to Taskbar Search Field” and learned that either ChatGPT or a human said:

In the last three weeks, we also launched the new AI-powered Bing into preview for more than 1 million people in 169 countries, and expanded the new Bing to the Bing and Edge mobile apps as well as introduced it into Skype. It is a new era in Search, Chat and Creation and with the new Bing and Edge you now have your own copilot for the web. Today, we take the next major step forward adding to the incredible breadth and ease of use of the Windows PC by implementing a typable Windows search box and the amazing capability of the new AI-powered Bing directly into the taskbar. Putting all your search needs for Windows in one easy to find location.

Exciting because lousy search will become milk, honey, sunshine, roses, and French bulldog puppies. Nope. Search is still the Bing with a smaller index than the Google sports. But that “AI” in the search box evokes good thoughts for some users.

For Google, the AI in the search box mashes the Code Red button. I think that if that button gets pressed five times in quick succession, the Google goes from Code Red to Code Super Red with LED sparkles.

Remember this AI search is marketing at this time in my frame of reference.

Microsoft is showing that Google is not too good at marketing. I am now mashing the Code Red button five times. Mash. Mash. Mash. Mash. Mash. Now I can watch Googzilla twitch and hop. Perhaps the creature will be the opening act in the Sundar and Prabhakar Emergency Output Emission Explanation Tour. Did you hear the joke about Microsoft walks into a vegan restaurant and says, “Did you hear the joke about Google marketing?” The server says, “No.” The Softie replies, “Google searched for marketing in its search engine and couldn’t get a relevant answer.”

Ho, ho

Stephen E Arnold, March 6, 2023

Bard Is More Than You and I Know

I have to hand it to the real news outfit CNBC, the reporters have a way of getting interesting information about the innards of Googzilla. A case in point is “Google Execs Tell Employees in Testy All Hands Meeting That Bard A.I. Isn’t Just about Search.” Who knew? I thought Google was about online advertising and increasing revenue. Therefore, my dinobaby mind says, Bard is part of the Google; it follows that Bard is about advertising and maybe – just maybe – will have an impact of search. Nope.

I learned from CNBC:

In an all-hands meeting on Thursday (March 2, 2023), executives answered questions from Dory, the company’s internal forum, with most of the top-rated issues related to the priorities around Bard… [emphasis added]

Gee, I wonder why?

The write up pointed out:

employees criticized leadership, most notably CEO Sundar Pichai, for the way it handled the announcement of Bard…

Oh, the Code Red, the Paris three star which delivered a froid McDo. (Goodness, I almost type “faux”.)

CNBC’s article added:

Staffers called Google’s initial public presentation [in Paris] “rushed,” “botched” and “un-Googley.”

Yeah, maybe faux is the better word, but I like the metaphor of a half cooked corporatized burger as well.

And the guru of Google Search, Prabhakar Raghavan, stepped out of the spotlight. A Googler named Jack Krawczyk, the product lead for Bard, filled in for the crowd favorite from Verity and Yahoo

. Mr. Krawczyk included in his stand up routine with one liners like this:

Bard is not search.

Mr. Krawczyk must have concluded that his audience was filled with IQ 100 types from assorted countries with lousy educational systems. I thought Googlers were exceptional. Surely Googlers could figure out what Bard could do. (Perhaps that is the reason for the employees’ interest in smart software:

Mr. Krawczyk quipped:

“It’s an experiment that’s a collaborative AI service that we talked about … “The magic that we’re finding in using the product is really around being this creative companion to helping you be the sparkplug for imagination, explore your curiosity, etc.”

CNBC pointed out that Mr. Krawczyk suggested the Google had “built a new feature for internal use called ‘Search It.’” That phrase reminded me of universal search which, of course, means separate queries for Google News, Google Scholar, Google Maps, et al. Yeah, universal search was a snappy marketing phrase but search has been a quite fragmented, relevance blind, information retrieval system.

The high value question in my opinion, is: Will “Search It” have the same cachet as ChatGPT?

Microsoft seems to be an effective marketer of to-be smart applications and services. Google, on the other hand, hopes I remember Mum or Ernie (not the cartoon character)?

Google, the Code Red outfit, is paddling its very expensive canoe with what appears to be desperation.

Net net: Google has not solved death and I am not sure the company will resolve the Microsoft / ChatGPT mindshare juggernaut. Here’s my contribution to the script of the next Sundar and Prabhakar Comedy Show: “We used to think Google was indecisive. But now we’re not so sure.”

Stephen E Arnold, March 6, 2023

Another Xoogler, Another Repetitive, Sad, Dispiriting Story

I will keep this brief. I read “The Maze Is in the Mouse.” The essay is Xoogler’s lament. The main point is that Google has four issues. The write up identifies these from a first person point of view:

The way I see it, Google has four core cultural problems. They are all the natural consequences of having a money-printing machine called “Ads” that has kept growing relentlessly every year, hiding all other sins. (1) no mission, (2) no urgency, (3) delusions of exceptionalism, (4) mismanagement.

I agree that “ads” are a big part of the Google challenge. I am not sure about the “mouse” or the “maze.”

Googzilla emerged from an incredible sequence of actions. Taken as a group, Google became the poster child for what smart Silicon Valley brainiacs could accomplish. From the git-go, Google emerged from the Backrub service. Useful research like the CLEVER method was kicking around at some conferences as a breakthrough for determining relevance. The competition was busy trying to become “portals” because the Web indexing thing was expensive and presented what seemed to be an infinite series of programming hoops. Google had zero ways to make money. As I recall, the mom and dad of Googzilla tried to sell the company to those who would listen; for example, the super brainiacs at Yahoo. Then the aha moment. GoTo.com had caused a stir in the Web indexing community by selling traffic. GoTo.com became Overture.com. Yahoo.com (run by super brainiacs, remember) bought Overture. But Yahoo did have the will, the machinery, or the guts to go big. Yahoo went home. Google went big.

What makes Google the interesting outfit it is are these points in my opinion:

• The company was seemingly not above receiving inspiration from the GoTo.com, Overture.com, and ultimately Yahoo.com “pay to play” model. Some people don’t know that Google was built on appropriated innovation and paid money and shares to make Yahoo’s legal eagles fly away. For me, Google embodied intellectual “flexibility” and an ethical compass sensitive to expediency. I may be wrong, but the Google does not strike me as being infused with higher spirits of truth, justice, and the American way Superman does. Google’s innovation boils down to borrowing. That’s okay. I borrow, but I try to footnote, not wait until the legal eagles gnaw at my liver.
• Google management, in my experience, were clueless about the broader context of their blend of search and advertising. I don’t think it was a failure of brainiac thinking. The brainiacs did not have context into which to fit their actions. Larry Page argued with me in 1999 about the value of truncation. He said, “No truncation needed at Google.” Baloney. Google truncates. Google informed a US government agency that Google would not conform to the specifications of the Statement of Work for a major US government search project. A failure to meet the criteria of the Statement of Work made Google ineligible to win that project. What did Google do? Google explained to the government team that the Statement of Work did not apply to Google technology. Well, Statements of Works and procurement works one way. Google did not like that way, so Google complained. Zero context. What Google should have done is address each requirement in a positive manner and turn in the bid. Nope, operating independent of procurement rules, Google just wanted to make up the rules. Period. That’s the way it is now and that’s the way Google has operated for nearly 25 years.
• Google is not mismanaged from Google’s point of view. Google is just right by definition. The management problems were inherent and obvious from the beginning. Let me give one example: Vendors struggled with the Google accounting system 20 or more years ago. Google blamed the Oracle database. Why? The senior management did not know what they did not know and they lacked the mental characteristic of understanding that fact. By assuming Googlers were brainiacs and the dorky Google intelligence test, Googlers could solve any problem. Wrong. Google has and continues to make decisions like a high school science club planning an experiment. Nice group, just not athletes, cheerleaders, class officers, or non nerd advisors. What do you get? You get crazy decisions like dumping Dr. Timnit Gebru and creating the Stochastic Parrot conference as well as Microsoft making Bing and Clippy on steroids look like a big deal.

Net net: Ads are important. But Google is Google because of its original and fundamental mental approach to problems: We know better. One thing is sure in my mind: Google does not know itself any better now than it did when it emerged from the Backrub “borrowed” computers and grousing about using too much Stanford bandwidth. Advertising is a symptom of a deeper malady, a mental issue in my opinion.

Stephen E Arnold,March 2, 2023

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  Stephen E. Arnold monitors search, content processing, text mining and related topics from his high-tech nerve center in rural Kentucky. He tries to winnow the goose feathers from the giblets. He works with colleagues worldwide to make this Web log useful to those who want to go "beyond search". Contact him at sa [at] arnoldit.com. His Web site with additional information about search is arnoldit.com.

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