IBM: Transforming to What?
February 28, 2016
I read “Multi-Billion Dollar Question: Is IBM’s Transformation for Real?” The question is being asked by Fortune Magazine, an outfit which certainly has had a front row seat to its own transformation efforts.
The write up focuses on a Wall Street analyst who is not drinking the Big Blue fruit juice. Here’s the passage I highlighted:
IBM’s “core” revenues have declined by a stunning $29.7B, resulting in revenue declines (adjusted for currency and acquisitions and divestitures) in each of the last 4 years. Most sobering, IBM’s revenue growth rate on this normalized basis has not improved during the period.
This is news? I think not.
One of the initiatives which underscores IBM’s performance is the presentation of Watson. As you may know, Watson is a combination of:
- Lucene and other open source bits and pieces
- Home grown scripts
- Acquired technology
These “innovations” are presented as something new, innovative, and significant to businesses and consumers. Each time I read a puff piece like “IBM Watson Machine Learns the Art of Writing a Good Headline.” Text summarization and machine written news stories are not new.
IBM warrants some skepticism. What’s remarkable is that Fortune Magazine has seized on a single analyst’s observations? Good for the analyst. But the reality of IBM has been front and center for years.
Progress?
Stephen E Arnold, February 28, 2016
Weakly Watson: Oscar Ads
February 27, 2016
Short honk. I read “IBM Watson battles Hollywood robot stereotypes with Carrie Fisher and Ridley Scott.” Pretty darned amazing. IBM, an enterprise software company, is advertising on the Oscars award television program. The commercials feature Carrie Fisher and Ridley Scott. All I can say is, “Wow.” Lost in Space may be available after the ads appear.
Stephen E Arnold, February 27, 2016
Weekly Watson: IBM Interviews Itself and Does Not Mention Watson as a Favorite App
February 26, 2016
I came across an article in IBM Events called “Dan Magid Chief Technologist, IBM i Solutions.” It appears, and I am thinking in rural Kentucky, not a technology nerve center like Cedar Rapids or Boise, that Dan Magid, the article, reports an interview with Dan Magic (chief technologist) conducted and edited by Dan Magid.
I hope I have that straight.
There were some interesting points in the article / interview / content marketing thingy.
In response to a question about trends, I learned from Dan Magid (interviewer, expert, author, and i Solutions technologist):
Connectivity, Big Data and Cloud. Everything else going on is in some way connected to these three trends.
What? No Watson? Perhaps Mr. Magid, the interviewer, should ask Dan Magid, the technologist at IBM i Solutions, “What about Watson? You remember, don’t you? TV game show winner. Cook book author. Curer of disease.”
I also learned that IBM is concerned about customers. There is a baffling reference to something called Rocket. I know about Rocket, the search vendor, but the “Rocket” in the interview is presented as if the reader knows wherefore of that which Mr. Magid speaks. Sorry, I don’t. I get the main idea: IBM listens to customers. I would add that being a large company with a dedicated IBM capture team helps out the customer support thing.
I noted this question, “How can an organization stay relevant five years from now?” I was hoping that Mr. Magic would consult IBM’s senior management and relate the question to the 14 consecutive quarters of revenue decline, the stock price, the reductions in force, and other oddments of the Big Blue approach to “relevance.” Nope. Here’s what I learned:
The key to staying relevant is to understand your customers, your market and the direction of technology. … You need to understand technology direction so that you can take advantage of emerging technologies that will help your customers and so that you can ensure your organization is not surprised by a new technology that could make your business model obsolete.
Business model obsolescence. I would suggest that IBM’s business model might be a suitable subject for a case study by some eager beaver MBA candidates. Just a thought.
I enjoyed this comment too:
Question from Mr. Magid to Mr. Magid: What app can you not live without?
Answer from Mr. Magid to Mr. Magid:
The Expensable mobile app. I travel 2-3 weeks a month and keeping up to date on expense reports used to be a nightmare. I would return from each trip with an envelope full of receipts and spend a few hours organizing and entering them for reimbursement. I would often get months behind. Now, I use the Expensable app to enter my expenses as they are incurred. I take five minutes to review it when I get home and submit the report. It’s simple.
Yikes. Not Watson.
Remarkable write up which delivers quite an insight into IBM’s thought processes.
Stephen E Arnold, February 26, 2016
IBM and Its Watson Branding
February 18, 2016
I read “IBM Hits 52-Week Low as Watson Branding Flails.” The write up comes from a person allegedly in touch with the pulsing world of Wall Street. The article is interesting and contains a number of points which I found in line with my own ideas about IBM; for example:
- Watson is not a consumer product. IBM is relying on consumer marketing tactics, including TV and cultural icons like Bob Dylan.
- IBM’s financial performance has been disappointing to shareholders.
- IBM bought the Weather Company “platform” and put its CEO in charge of Watson.
The highlight of the article was this statement:
Bob Dylan walks off stage in his Watson commercial, he seems frustrated. Watson can’t sing. That is not all it can’t do.
Keeper for my quote folder.
Stephen E Arnold, February 18, 2016
Weekly Watson: Playing Hoops with the Raptors
February 16, 2016
The Raptors do not have Stephen Curry on their team. The Raptors do have IBM Watson. I read “Raptors Team Up with IBM Supercomputer Watson to Analyze Player Talent.” The idea is that the basketball loving Canadians (no the game is not played on ice) will have a more effective squad with Watson in the locker room.
Watson is not a disturbance. The new team member is more of a cloud thing. As a result, Watson is everywhere, which addresses some of the problems in the Raptors’ line up.
According to the article:
…they’re [the basketball team] hoping that recruiting some help from a supercomputer will help Toronto take them to the next level.
I have had limited exposure to NBA professionals and managers. That experience suggested that supercomputers were absolutely one of the primary interests of those involved. None of this fashion, exotic cars, and friendly fans. Nope. Throughput, massive parallelism, and fresh approaches to machine learning were the chatter on and off the court.
A whiteboard with Xs and Os. Nope. Math equations for optimizing statistical anomalies when processing real time data like how many times the announcers said, “He drained that shot.”
I envision the announcers saying:
Watson mods the open source code. A quick call to Vivisimo and then more of those old Almaden home brew moves. It’s up. A miss. The Raptors lose again at the buzzer. Bummer.
Watson, in the post game interview, says, “My bad.”
Meanwhile the Golden State Warriors keep on winning.
Stephen E Arnold, February 16, 2016
Weekly Watson: Watson for President
February 10, 2016
I don’t want to confuse you. Watson for President has nothing to do with IBM. But, it is an election year, so maybe this is just some of that good, old campaign misdirection.
Now to the froth of the matter. A Web site is online which makes a case for electing IBM Watson, the cognitive choice, as president.
Here’s what a news conference would look like if and when IBM’s Lucene, acquired technology, and home brew scripts takes over America.
I like the hair style.
The Web site points out:
What makes Watson unique is its interface capabilities with humans. It not only interacts by speech but has a visual representation to convey its current state. Just in the same way humans have facial expressions to convey emotions, Watson changes its visual form to express its level of confidence in a selected answer. Wouldn’t the country be better if all politicians were that transparent?
There is a discussion of issues, but no reference to Watson’s ability to deliver on fiscal promises. I noted that turnover among staff is another lacuna. Watson has “weathered” another change among its human tenders.
Enjoy the videos and support Watson. Here’s what one happy supporter looks like:
Rah rah.
Stephen E Arnold, February 10, 2016
Watson Weekly: Cognitive Insurance
February 3, 2016
IBM ran an ad with the headline “Cognitive Insurance.” You can find the ad in the February 1, 2016, New York Times. The secondary headline is “Outthink Storms,” which is rendered in the favorite colors of some color blind males, shades of green. The main hook “Cognitive Insurance” is in green. I had to look a couple of times to spot the phrase in the upper right hand corner of the image.
What’s interesting to me is that the ad seems to display those nifty isobars I encountered in a science class decades ago. My hunch is that the gale force winds of the Weather acquisition are ruining the coifs of the IBM public relations and advertising wizards.
The phrase has been used by IBM as well as an outfit called “Cognitive-Insurance” at www.cognitive-insurance.org, which to my dismay would not render. No 404. Just a blank page. I saw a couple of references to presentations by various experts.
But No mention of Watson, which I find interesting. Perhaps IBM has decided that Sherlock’s sidekick and the various uses of the word by swimming pool companies, furniture stores, and universities is a bit of an issue.
So cognitive insurance it is. I assume that IBM Watson’s team will make a bee line to Los Angeles where weather has been semi exciting.
Stephen E Arnold, February 3, 2016
Watson, Whither Weather?
February 2, 2016
i read “IBM Closes Weather Co. Purchase, Names David Kenny New Head of Watson Platform.” Big news. Watson is a platform and there is a new big rainmaker in charge of the alleged $10 billion revenue machine based on Lucene, acquired technology, home brew scripts, and weather data.
Weather is important. I agree. If I cannot look out the window, I am flummoxed.
The write up reveals:
As part of the deal, IBM is making some changes: First, the Weather Company’s cloud platform will now run on IBM’s Cloud data centers (recall that it once was a big client of AWS). That platform will now power all of IBM’s wider push into data services and Watson’s Internet of Things business. This will bring a massively bigger amount of data into the mix, covering what IBM describes as billions of IoT sensors. IBM will also use its weight to scale the Weather Company’s business: the company plans to expand weather.com into five more markets including China, India and Brazil “immediately”, as well as integrate it into IBM’s 45 global cloud centers.
I think this means that IBM is going to embrace an acquired company’s cloud platform. That’s okay. Does this suggest that IBM’s cloud platform is not very good? I will have to noodle on this a moment.
Okay, done. Yes, IBM’s cloud technology is less efficacious that the Weather Co.’s.
Next, I learned from the write up:
The Weather Channel — perhaps the Weather Company’s most mainstream product — is not included. But as part of the sale, under a long-term contract, it will license weather data forecasts and analytics now owned by IBM.
Er, okay. So it was the technology and fellow David Kenny.
Who is he?
A quick check revealed these items about the rainmaker:
- LinkedIn says he is a general manager, not a rainmaker. Good to know.
- He’s been a director of Best Buy and Yahoo. Okay, those are two firms which have made financial lightning.
- He was the president of Akamai for 15 months. That’s helpful, but I wonder is Akamai is the foundation of his cloud method and if there may be intellectual property issues. Nah, probably not.
- He worked at a PR firm. This is good. I want to see more of the Watson recipe and game show information.
- He was a Bainie. This is helpful background.
In my view, the Watson platform will be able to sidestep the issues raised in “The Truth about Bain.”
Will the Weather thing make Watson the perfect storm in IBM revenues? I am no weather person, but it looks as if it is cloudy with a chance for drizzle, then steadily falling temperatures, and a possibility of icy roads for tomorrow’s morning drive.
Fill your tank and take an energy bar. Delays are likely.
Stephen E Arnold, February 2, 2016
IBM Sells Technology Platform with a Throwback to Big Datas Mysteries
February 2, 2016
The infographic on the IBM Big Data & Analytics Hub titled Extracting Business Value From the 4 V’s of Big Data involves quantifying Volume (scale of data), Velocity (speed of data), Veracity (certainty of data), and Variety (diversity of data). In a time when big data may have been largely demystified, IBM makes an argument for its current relevance and import, not to mention its mystique, with reminders of the tremendous amounts of data being created and consumed on a daily basis. Ultimately the graphic is an ad for the IBM Analytics Technology Platform. The infographic also references a “fifth “V”,
“Big data = the ability to achieve greater Value through insights from superior analytics. Case Study: A US-based aircraft engine manufacturer now uses analytics to predict engine events that lead to costly airline disruptions, with 97% accuracy. If this prediction capability had ben available in the previous year, it would have saved $63 million.”
IBM struggles for revenue. But, obviously from this infographic, IBM knows how to create Value with a capital “V”, if not revenue. The IBM Analytics Technology Platform promises speedier insights and actionable information from trustworthy sources. The infographic reminds us that poor quality in data leads to sad executives, and that data is growing exponentially, with 90% of all data forged in only the last two years.
Chelsea Kerwin, February 2, 2016
Sponsored by ArnoldIT.com, publisher of the CyberOSINT monograph
Watson Weekly: Transforming Business for Sure
January 31, 2016
I read “8 Ways IBM Watson Analytics Is Transforming Business.” My initial reaction was, “If that were true, why is IBM stuck in a revenue decline.” IBM itself should be the exemplary case for the efficacy of IBM Watson.
IBM is struggling. I think the company has reported 15 consecutive quarters of revenue decline. Let’s see. Yes, that works out to four years of downhill sledding.
The write up ignores the obvious disconnect between what IBM asserts Watson can do and IBM’s own business performance. The reality is that if Watson were so darned wonderful, IBM’s financial results should reflect that insider advantage.
Oh, well.
Here’s the part of the write up I highlighted with my Big Blue red ink marker:
- A Kentucky truck company is racking in the dough via Watson Analytics. Okay.
- A company engaged in social housing and health care is figuring out how not to injure workers. Okay.
- An outfit is identifying opportunities on the Australian stock exchange. I assume Watson is recommending IBM as a strong buy.
- A franchised patient taxi service is analyzing data from its transport services. But where’s Uber? What is Uber using for analytics? Okay.
- A marketing outfit in Texas takes time out from standing on line at Franklin Barbecue to correlate data. Okay but I think Franklin’s figures out customer demand by looking out the window of the restaurant.
- A hospitality planning service firm for college sports can figure out what to do when selling yummy hot dogs and serving cold, refreshing buttermilk to thirsty sports fans. Okay.
- A university (yes, a university with a statistics department) uses Watson to figure out how “to leverage social sentiment.” I wonder if the university queries graduates about their student loans versus employment prospects? Okay. Well, maybe not okay.
- Another university uses Watson in its actual classes. What about IBM SPSS? Wait maybe that’s Watson analytics. Students will be almost excited as I was to do the statistics exercises, but I did not get to use Watson. I had to use a pencil and paper.
My take on this article? IBM does not have compelling use cases. In fact, these examples illustrate that IBM is struggling to dress up analytics in marketing finery.
Uber? What’s Uber using for its ride analytics?
Stephen E Arnold, January 31, 2016
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