An Essay about Big Data Analytics: Trouble Amping Up
October 31, 2022
I read “What Moneyball for Everything Has Done to American Culture.” Who doesn’t love a thrilling data analytics story? Let’s narrow the scope of the question: What MBA, engineer, or Certified Financial Analyst doesn’t love a thrilling data analytics story?
Give up? The answer is 99.9 percent emit adrenaline and pheromone in copious quantities. Yeah, baby. Winner!
The essay in the “we beg for dollars politely” publication asserts:
The analytics revolution, which began with the movement known as Moneyball, led to a series of offensive and defensive adjustments that were, let’s say, _catastrophically successful_. Seeking strikeouts, managers increased the number of pitchers per game and pushed up the average velocity and spin rate per pitcher. Hitters responded by increasing the launch angles of their swings, raising the odds of a home run, but making strikeouts more likely as well. These decisions were all legal, and more important, they were all _correct_ from an analytical and strategic standpoint.
Well, that’s what makes outfits similar to Google-type, Amazon-type, and TikTok-type outfits so darned successful. Data analytics and nifty algorithms pay off. Moneyball!
The essay notes:
The sport that I fell in love with doesn’t really exist anymore.
Is the author talking about baseball or is the essaying pinpointing what’s happened in high technology user land?
My hunch is that baseball is a metaphor for the outstanding qualities of many admired companies. Privacy? Hey, gone. Security? There is a joke worthy of vaudeville. Reliability? Ho ho ho. Customer service from a person who knows a product? You have to be kidding.
I like the last paragraph:
Cultural Moneyballism, in this light, sacrifices exuberance for the sake of formulaic symmetry. It sacrifices diversity for the sake of familiarity. It solves finite games at the expense of infinite games. Its genius dulls the rough edges of entertainment. I think that’s worth caring about. It is definitely worth asking the question: In a world that will only become more influenced by mathematical intelligence, can we ruin culture through our attempts to perfect it?
Unlike a baseball team’s front office, we can’t fire these geniuses when the money is worthless and the ball disintegrates due to a lack of quality control.
Stephen E Arnold, October 31, 2022
Modern Management Practices: Airline and Book Models
October 28, 2022
I know zero about running an airline. Wait. That’s not true. I know these outfits struggle to leave on time and handle baggage. I have heard that the computer systems used by US carriers are similar to those in use at the Internal Revenue Service. End of my info.
I read “American Airlines is Trying to Stop a Popular iPhone App That’s Become a ‘Must Have’ For its Flight Attendants.” The story caught my attention because an iPhone app has become an object of attention at an outfit unable to do what people expect it to do. Please, reference my comment about flying on time and the suitcases.
One flight attendant said of the current situation affecting Sequence Decoder that they had “never seen a company go out of their way to make life harder for their workers.”
The operative phrase “never seen a company go out of their way to make life harder for their workers” is memorable.
I would suggest that there is another company with some management challenges. “Exclusive: Amazon’s Attrition Costs $8 Billion Annually According to Leaked Documents And It Gets Worse” reports:
Amazon churns through workers at an astonishing rate, well above industry averages.
The write up continues:
The paper, published in January of 2022, states that the prior year’s data “indicates regretted attrition [represents] a low of 69.5% to a high of 81.3% across all levels (Tier 1 through Level 10 employees) suggesting a distinct retention issue.
Two big companies. Neither seems to be able to get in sync with their employees.
Let’s step back. I have a general sense that a number of organizations are unable to manage what I would call the basics; that is, understanding what employees need to do their jobs. On one hand, a software app which appears to improve scheduling strikes me as useful. Obviously the airline’s managers are terrified of software developed by an outsider and embraced by employees. The solution is to cancel it. Isn’t that a disconnect by what I assume are GenX and Millennial managers? Could dinobaby managers help resolve the issue? Of course not! Dinobabies, my goodness, no.
I have found that the online bookstore is less and less able to deliver “next day.” But I am a sample of one. The write up makes clear that one possible reason for the slippage and some of the practices of third party resellers are facilitated is due to — you guessed it — management failures. If the company were in touch with their employees, why have churn rates that are in the ballpark for streaming services consuming billions of dollars? In my opinion, we have an example of management taking a selfie and falling into a ravine.
Observations:
- Managers have to manage and deliver success. Ignoring employee needs is a questionable approach.
- Senior managers have to provide a framework for success. Exhibiting failure at scale suggests that these professionals are not managing in an effective manner from the point of view of the employees.
- Boards of directors have to provide a framework for the policies of the company. The incidents described in airline and bookstore cases suggests that these individuals are like vacationers: Kick back and enjoy the time.
My hunch is that remediating these issues will require more than attitude adjustment, a couple of TED Talks, and new technology. In fact, fixing the issues creating these two referenced case examples may be a job for the reprehensible dinobabies and their pre historic methods. Is this a popular notion? Nope.
Stephen E Arnold, October 28, 2022
The Robots: Fun and Friendly Colleagues?
October 26, 2022
Robot coworkers make us uncomfortable, apparently. Who knew? ScienceDaily reports, “Robots in Workplace Contribute to Burnout, Job Insecurity.” The good news, we are told, is that simple self-affirmation exercises can help humans get past such fears. The write-up cites research from the American Psychological Association, stating:
“Working with industrial robots was linked to greater reports of burnout and workplace incivility in an experiment with 118 engineers employed by an Indian auto manufacturing company. An online experiment with 400 participants found that self-affirmation exercises, where people are encouraged to think positively about themselves and their uniquely human characteristics, may help lessen workplace robot fears. Participants wrote about characteristics or values that were important to them, such as friends and family, a sense of humor or athletics. ‘Most people are overestimating the capabilities of robots and underestimating their own capabilities,’ [lead researcher Kai Chi] Yam said.”
Yam suspects ominous media coverage about robots replacing workers is at least partially to blame for the concern. Yeah, that tracks. The write-up continues:
“Fears about job insecurity from robots are common. The researchers analyzed data about the prevalence of robots in 185 U.S. metropolitan areas along with the overall use of popular job recruiting sites in those areas (LinkedIn, Indeed, etc.). Areas with the most prevalent rates of robots also had the highest rates of job recruiting site searches, even though unemployment rates weren’t higher in those areas.”
Researchers suggest this difference may be because workers in those areas are afraid of being replaced by robots at any moment, though they allow other factors could be at play. So just remember—if you become anxious a robot is after your job, just remind yourself what a capable little human you are. Technology is our friend, even if it makes us a bit nervous.
Cynthia Murrell, October 26, 2022
The In Person Office Means You Do Synergy
October 25, 2022
What is the point of requiring workers to come into the office part-time? Slack’s chief executive Stewart Butterfield knows what it is not. BBC News reports, “Office Time Is Not for Video Calls, Says Tech Boss.” Writer Zoe Kleinman tells us how the messaging-app company makes the most of in-person time:
“Ongoing renovations are gearing Slack workspace more towards that of a social club, [Butterfield] says, because he wants people to come to work to collaborate and build relationships face-to-face. ‘The best thing we can do is create a comfortable environment for people to come together and actually enjoy themselves,’ he says. He accepts that some people will choose to work full time in the office because they either cannot or do not want to work from home, and also thinks that young people starting their careers generally prefer to be in the office with their peers. ‘It’s hard to imagine starting your career fresh out of university, and not going to the office, and not being able to meet all these people in person,’ he says. ‘But I think the majority of knowledge workers, over time, will settle into some sort of pattern of regular intervals of getting together.'”
But make no mistake—Butterfield is not suggesting an abundance of meetings. In fact, he thinks 20-30 percent of meetings should have been an email. He likes Jeff Bezos’ technique for making the most of meetings that do occur by prefacing them with a written brief. Another practice he suggests is to share information asynchronously. (Through an app like Slack, perhaps?) Fewer meetings will almost certainly help entice workers on-site, where they can get to know each other as more than a grid of disembodied faces. We can see how that might enhance collaboration. But what if synergy means something like the Uber interactions? Yeah.
Cynthia Murrell, October 25, 2022
Need a Spy? New Zealand Has Found a Resource
October 24, 2022
Israel’s armed and covert operatives are among the world’s most elite forces. It is not surprising when New Zealand’s government wanted to secretly spy and collect people’s data that they hired ex-Israeli operatives. Otago Daily explains whom New Zealand government tracked in the story: “Govt Enlists Ex-Israeli Spies To Covertly Collect Data.”
The New Zealand government, specifically the immigration department, hired Cobweb Technologies, a company formed by ex-Israeli spies. Meta (aka Facebook) kicked Cobwebs Technologies and six other foreign companies accused of creating fake accounts to spy on 50,000 people. The people spied on were journalists, politicians, human rights activists, and other persons of interest in over one hundred countries. The fake accounts also joined closed forums and communities to coerce members into sharing their private information.
Meta stated that Immigration NZ is only one of six countries that were Cobwebs Technologies’ customers. The department was a customer of the company for two years. Using social engineering, Cobweb Technologies uses its know-how to scan the Internet, mostly social media platforms, for targets’ public information.
New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment stated that Cobwebs Technologies’ acts were legal, controlled, and important:
They helped it meet its “legislative responsibilities”, in an undefined but “specific” area where there were active threats, the ministry told RNZ in its OIA response. Revealing more would “enable and embolden” groups overseas seeking to undermine it.
‘We are aware of activity overseas showing an intent (and ability) of such groups to do exactly this, specifically in response to the public release of information of the kind we are withholding, including tactically altering their behavior, increasing their operational security or deliberately injecting misinformation to reduce the effectiveness of collection methods. If even a moderate event in this particular area were to eventuate, the consequences for New Zealand could be significant and costly to fix,’ MBIE said.”
What exactly was New Zealand Immigration learning from Cobwebs Technologies? If it was about potential terrorist attacks on the country, then it was for national defense. If it was to spy on people who were not a threat, but did not agree with the country’s political agenda then it was a crime. How do you define each?
Whitney Grace, October 24, 2022
Characteristics of a Dinobaby
October 21, 2022
Someone called my attention to the Buzzfeed article “Millennial Managers Are Sharing Toxic Things Their Older Bosses Did That They Won’t Do To Employees, And I Relate To A Lot Of These.” The list of millennial management precepts makes it very clear why I am a relic. The 25 characteristics are interesting. The table below provides my dinobaby view of five of these statements about the cohorts now in the workplace.
|
Millennial Mgmt |
Dinobaby Approach |
| No micromanagement | Micromanage when warranted |
| Open communication | Sometimes |
| Rat on colleagues | Not this dinobaby |
| Ask staff for ideas and examples | Yes, dinobabies do this |
| Communicate what is needed to get promoted | Follow organization’s policies and procedures |
I cannot imagine how difficult it would be for this dinobaby to work with staff and managers who absolve themselves of the responsibility for knowing what the company expects, inculcating the organization’s policies and procedures in the work, and getting the best from each person. Eliminating managers and allowing employees to do their own thing is a recipe for disaster.
What if the organization has no rules of the road, is managed by a crazed genius, and lacks policies, procedures, and planning? Don’t take a full time job. Be a consultant and work on a short term contract. Avoid problem firms.
Stephen E Arnold, October 21, 2022
Expert Wants the Zuck to Resign: Yeah, Sure
October 20, 2022
I read what I think is an essay for a first year MBA class at an online university. The title? “It’s Time for Mark Zuckerberg to Step Down.” Like Mr. Putin, Mr. Zuckerberg seems to be part of the Facebook furniture. Fortunately the brilliant leader of the footless avatar company does not have nuclear weapons. He has the next best thing: Control of the company and a lot of money.
The write up ignores these facts, suggesting:
Mark Zuckerberg should quit. He should step down from his position as CEO of Meta and let someone else manage Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram. He should then use his vast wealth and venture-capital connections to launch a startup that can build out his vision of the metaverse.
I want to point out that the metaverse is to Mr. Zuckerberg what annexed regions of the Ukraine are to Mr. Putin. Under attack, these outstanding leaders retreat, talk with people who know an answer other than yes can have a downside, and make decisions from carpet land. These are top downers, not Millennial / GenX / GenY sensitives.
The article adds:
Americans generally find the company’s business model creepy. This has thrown Meta’s business into panic mode…
Panic mode. I don’t think so. The steps taken by Meta and other tech-centric firms are mostly engineering daring do. Logical steps often make sense to folks like Mr. Zuckerberg and I suppose Mr. Putin. Consequences? Sure. Ever hear of collateral damage?
Interesting stuff, particularly the last line of the analysis:
…he should quit.
Insightful. Maybe Mr. Putin and Mr. Zuckerberg will resign on the same day?
Stephen E Arnold, October 20, 2022
Gee, A Button Does Not Work? Does It Have Something to Do with Ads?
October 11, 2022
YouTube’s Interactive Rating Buttons Do Not Work
Oh, YouTube! What mistakes will are being made on the video-hosting platform now? According to The Verge, YouTube’s newest changes to its likes and dislikes features do not work: Dislike YouTube runs on a series of complex algorithms that rely on user feedback. The feedback tells the algorithms whether or not a user enjoys suggested content. As the algorithms are supposed to learn what videos users like and curate individualized content.
It is not working.
Mozilla researchers discovered that the YouTube buttons “dislike,” “not interested,” “stop recommending channel,” and “remove from watch history” do not remove the unwanted videos. Users are still plagued with more than half of the videos they do not want to see. Mozilla researchers collected their data with volunteer help:
“Mozilla researchers enlisted volunteers who used the foundation’s RegretsReporter, a browser extension that overlays a general “stop recommending” button to YouTube videos viewed by participants. On the back end, users were randomly assigned a group, so different signals were sent to YouTube each time they clicked the button placed by Mozilla — dislike, not interested, don’t recommend channel, remove from history, and a control group for whom no feedback was sent to the platform.
Using data collected from over 500 million recommended videos, research assistants created over 44,000 pairs of videos — one “rejected” video, plus a video subsequently recommended by YouTube. Researchers then assessed pairs themselves or used machine learning to decide whether the recommendation was too similar to the video a user rejected.”
It turns out that the “dislike” and “not interested” buttons were “marginally effective” at preventing 12% of poor recommendations. The “don’t recommend channel” and “remove from history” buttons were slightly better at 43% and 29% respectively.
Elena Hernandez, a YouTube spokesperson, explained that these buttons are not meant to block all content about a topic. Hernandez criticized the Mozilla team’s report, because it was not taken into consideration that the buttons are designed to not create echo chambers nor how the algorithms work. She did state, however, that YouTube welcomes academic research and that is why YouTube expanded its Data API through the YouTube Researcher Program.
TikTok and Instagram have similar feedback tools and user response is similar to what the Mozilla researchers found out about YouTube. Google, YouTube’s parent company, and the other video platforms are not interested in keeping users happy. They want to keep users engaged and continue clicking on the platform. It is a known Internet fact that when people are upset they are glued to the screen more. Are YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram purposely frustrating users?
Whitney Grace, October 11, 2022
Insider Threat: Worse Than Poisoned Open Source Code and Major Operating System Flaws?
October 5, 2022
Here’s a question for you.
What poses a greater threat to your organization? Select one item only, please.
[a] Flaws in mobile phones
[b] Poisoned open source code
[c] Cyber security and threat intelligence systems do not provide advertised security
[d] Insider threats
[e] Operating systems’ flaws.
If you want to check more than one item, congratulations. You are a person who is aware that most computing devices are insecure with some flaws baked in. Fixing up flawed hardware and software under attack is similar to repairing an L-29 while the Super Defin is in an air race.
Each day I receive emails asking me to join a webinar about a breakthrough in cyber security, new threats from the Dark Web, and procedures to ensure system integrity. I am not confident that these companies can deliver cyber security, particularly the type needed to deal with an insider who decides to help out bad actors.
“NSA Employee Leaked Classified Cyber Intel, Charged with Espionage” reports:
A former National Security Agency employee was arrested on Wednesday for spying on the U.S. government on behalf of a foreign government. Jareh Sebastian Dalke, 30, was arrested in Denver, Colorado after allegedly committing three separate violations of the Espionage Act. Law enforcement allege that the violations were committed between August and September of 2022, after he worked as a information systems security designer at the agency earlier that summer.
So what’s the answer to the multiple choice test above? It’s D. Insider breaches suggest that management procedures are not working. Cyber security webinars don’t address this, and it appears that other training programs may not be pulling hard enough. Close enough for horse shoes may work when selling ads. For other applications, more rigor may be necessary.
Stephen E Arnold, October 5, 2022
Board Games at Microsoft? Maybe Corner Cutting?
September 30, 2022
I noted a write up called “Anonymous Lays Waste to Russian Message Board, Releases Entire Database Online.” The article describes what a merrie band of anonymous, distributed bad actors can do in today’s decentralized, Web 3 world of online games like Cat and Mouse. The article explains that Mr. Putin’s bureaucracy is a big, fat, and easy target to attack. One statement in the article caught my attention; to wit:
For all their reputation on cyber security and hacking, the Russians were careless…. KiraSec has taken down hundreds of Russian websites, Russian banks like alfabank, bank.yandex.ru, pro-Russian terror-leaning websites, Russian pedophile websites, Russian government websites, Russian porn sites and a lot more. The cyber activists also “hacked various Russian SCADAs and ICS, nuking their systems and completely destroying their industrial machines.”
I immediately thought about Microsoft’s Brad Smith suggesting that more than 1,000 programmers worked to make SolarWinds a household word. My thought was that Microsoft itself may share the systems engineering approach used to protect some Russian information assets. The key word is “careless.” Arrogance, indifference, and probably quite terrible management facilitated the loss of Russian data and the SolarWinds’ misstep.
I then spotted in my news headline stream this article from the UK online outfit The Register: “Excel’s Comedy of Errors Needs a New Script, Not New Scripting.” This article points out that Microsoft has introduced a new feature for Excel. I am not an individual who writes everything in Excel, including holiday greetings and lists of government officials names and email addresses. Some are.
Here’s the passage I circled after I printed out the write up on a piece of paper:
Excel is already the single most dangerous tool to give to civilians. You can get things wrong in Word and PowerPoint all day long, and while they have their own security fun you’re not getting things wrong through a series of tiny letterboxes behind which can live the company’s most important numerical data. The Excel Blunder is its own genre of corporate terror: it brings down companies, it breaches data like a excited whale seeking sunlight, it can make a mockery of pandemic control. And because Excel is the only universal tool most users get for organizing any sort of data, the abuses and perversions it gets put to are endless.
What’s the connection between bad actors hacking Russia, Microsoft’s explanation of the SolarWinds’ misstep, and Excel’s new scripting method?
Insecurity appears to be part of the core business process.
No big deal. Some bad actors and a few cyber security vendors will be happy. Others will be “careless” and maybe clueless. That’s Clue the board game, not the motion picture.
Stephen E Arnold, September 30, 2022
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