Apple Learns: There Can Be Knock Ons from Zoomified Congressional Hearings
August 21, 2020
What happens when high school science club “on the fly”, “we can do what we want” decision making is revealed in Zoomified Congressional hearings? “News Publishers Join Epic Games in Asking Apple for Lower App Store Fees” is an example of the strong reaction to special deals. Now Apple’s partners want the same “deal” extended to the Bezos bulldozer. Here’s the key statement from an online news service:
publishers including the New York Times, the Washington Post and CNET parent company ViacomCBS, want that 30% fee dropped to 15%.
Thus, it seems Apple and Amazon worked out a deal different from the one imposed on lesser Apple partners.
Digital Content Next offers this observation in a letter to Apple’s management:
Sometime in 2017, Apple and Amazon, two giant platform companies, struck a deal where Amazon Prime Video would be available on Apple TV and Apple products would be available on Amazon. As part of the terms of that deal, Apple would reduce its fee for consumers who subscribed to Prime Video from 30% to 15%. For existing Prime Video subscribers, Apple agreed to completely waive its normal 15% fee. The cherry on top for Amazon was that they could use other payment systems outside of Apple.
Apple now has to fancy dance its way around what looks like a problem.
Apple wants to do what it wants. Don’t like the changes in our operating systems? Well, that’s Apple doing its thing. Don’t like the fees? Well, that’s the way we operate. Take it or leave it. Don’t like the deal we worked out with Amazon? Well, too bad.
Despite the love many have for the Apple ecosystem, the time has arrived for those with different views to grouse out loud.
So what? This looks like another example of situational decision making. A deal with the Bezos bulldozer may grind slowly around and start rolling back to the digital orchard.
To sum up: High school science club are now playing Fortnite in real life or IRL. Battle royale? Yep. Those Zoomified hearings make it clear that the democratic processes generate useful information and cause an action-reaction demonstration. The game, however, is not a digital fantasy.
Stephen E Arnold, August 21, 2020
The Flywheel Thing
August 21, 2020
About a year ago, a marketing person asked me, “Why don’t you talk about the Amazon flywheel?” I replied, “Flywheel. What flywheel?” Sure, I knew about the Bezos buzzword, but that does not mean I have to use it when I write about the world’s largest online bookstore. I prefer jazzier words and phrases; for example, cat’s pajamas, wizards, and high school science club manager, etc.
“Question Everything or the Strange Loop Principle” seems to come down on my side of word choice. The essay asserts:
First, let’s see how Collins himself describes what he calls the Flywheel Concept. For that, I’m going to borrow from Collins’ own Turning the Flywheel: a Monograph to Accompany Good to Great. But first, we have to discuss Collins’ word choice and the mechanics of an actual flywheel. He picks “Flywheel” for a reason: he believes flywheels accurately describe the sort of dynamics he identifies in some very successful companies that go from being average – “good” – to being leaders – “great” –.
Now the flywheel in business:
So whatever Collins wants us to understand about great businesses, he thinks a flywheel is a good shortcut to get there.
The there is growth, maybe exponential growth. One problem:
Therefore, flywheels are great at describing something that holds a lot of momentum, but not something that behaves exponentially, or that self-reinforces itself.
Now Amazon:
I think Amazon is a great example of something I can’t quite point at but that seems to reinforce itself (I have no evidence that it’s exponential in any way. Just that it seems to go on and on forever without the need for more energy). As it sells more, it’s able to sell cheaper, which leads it to sell more, which leads it to be able to sell cheaper, and on and on. Businesses that find such self-reinforcing “mechanics” have something strong going for them.
The bottom line:
Here’s this guy who’s arguably the new Peter Drucker, revered by entrepreneurs, world leaders and executives alike, not only basing a huge part of his knowledge production on a shaky concept that’s named and explained with a shaky mix of words and examples applying it all in a very shaky way to his own life.
Yep, imagine that. Management thinking which is shaky. Nope, no flywheels for me.
Stephen E Arnold, August 20, 2020
A Former Science Club Member Critiques Google, THE Science Club
August 17, 2020
I truly enjoy posts from former insiders at giant technology monopolies. Each of them hires from the other. The meta-revolving door spin is fascinating to watch. Some get tossed out of the mechanism because of some career negative factor: Family, health, mental orientation, or some other exogenous, non-technical event. Others go through a Scientological reformation and realize that the world of the high-technology nation-states is a weird place: Language, food customs, expectations of non-conformist “norm” behavior, and other cultural suckerfish. What gives me a chuckle are revelations like Tim Bray’s or Steve Yegge’s “Dear Google Cloud: Your Deprecation Policy is Killing You.” In my opinion, Mr. Yegge’s thoughtful, calm, and “in the moment” essay about the GOOG is more intriguing than the Financial Times’ story that reports Google has predicted the end of the world as we know it in Australia. What? Australia? Yep, for those receiving this warning from the Oracle at Mountain View their life amidst the kangaroos will mean no “free search” and — gasp! — curtains for “a dramatically worse” YouTube. Search can’t get much worse, so the YouTube threat means angry kids. Yikes! YouTube. Will Australia, a mere country, at the wrong end of a Google phaser strike?
Back to Mr. Yegge: In his essay, the phrase “deprecation treadmill” appears. This is the key insight. Googlers have to have something to do it seems. The bright science club members interact via an acceptable online service and make decisions informed by data. As Mr. Yegge points out, the data fueling insights may not be comprehensive or processed by some master intelligence. He notes that a Bigtable storage technology had been running for many years before any smart science club member or smart Google software noticed. (So much for attention to detail.)
Mr. Yegge points out that
One is that running a Bigtable was so inconsequential to Google’s scale that it took 2 years before anyone even noticed it, and even then, only because the version was old. As a point of comparison, I considered using Google Cloud Bigtable for my online game, but it cost (at the time) an estimated $16,000/year for an empty Bigtable on GCP. I’m not saying they’re gouging you, but in my own personal opinion, that feels like a lot of money for an empty [censored] database.
This paragraph underscores the lack of internal controls which operate in real time, although every two years could be considered near real time if one worked in a data center at Dialog Information Services in the mid 1980s. Today? Two years means a number of TikToks can come and go along with IPOs, unicorns, and Congressional hearings live streamed.
Mr. Yegge also uses a phrase I find delicious: “Deprecation treadmill.” The Google science club members use data (some old, some new, and some selected to support a lateral arabesque to a hotter team) to make changes. Examples range from the Dodgeball wackiness to change in cloud APIs which Mr. Yegge mentions in his essay. He notes:
Google engineers pride themselves on their software engineering discipline, and that’s actually what gets them into trouble. Pride is a trap for the unwary, and it has ensnared many a Google team into thinking that their decisions are always right, and that correctness (by some vague fuzzy definition) is more important than customer focus.
I wish to point out that Mr. Yegge is overlooking the key tenet of high school science club management methods: The science club is ALWAYS right. Since Mr. Yegge no longer works at the Google, Mr. Yegge is WRONG. Anyone who is not a right-now Googler is WRONG. A failure to understand the core of this mindset cannot work at the Google. Therefore, that individual is mentally unable to understand that Mother Google’s right-now brood is RIGHT. Australia and the European Union, for example, do not understand the logic of the Google. And they are obviously WRONG.
How simple this is.
Mr. Yegge points out how some activities are supposed to be carrier out in the “real world” as opposed to the cultural norms of the techno-monopolies. He writes:
Successful long-lived open systems owe their success to building decades-long micro-communities around extensions/plugins, also known as a marketplace.
This is indeed amusing. Google delivers advertising, and that is a game within a casino hotel. I think the online advertising game run by the Google blends the best of a 1950s Las Vegas outfit on the Strip and the mythical Hotel California of the Eagles’ song. Compare my metaphor with Mr. Yegge’s. Which is more accurate?
Google’s pride in their software engineering hygiene is what gets them into trouble here. They don’t like it when there are lots of different ways to do the same thing, with older, less-desirable ways sitting alongside newer fancier ways. It increases the learning curve for newcomers to the system, it increases the burden of supporting the legacy APIs, it slows down new feature velocity, and the worst sin of all: it’s ugly. Google is like Lady Ascot in Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland:
Lady Ascot: Alice, do you know what I fear most?
Alice Kingsley: The decline of the aristocracy?
Lady Ascot: Ugly grandchildren.
Mr. Yegge’s point is a brilliant one: The Google wants its customers to operate like “here and now” Googlers. But customers do not understand and they are WRONG.
The disconnect between the Google and mere customers is nailed in this statement by Mr. Yegge:
But after all these years, Google Cloud is still #3
Yes, Google does make decisions based on data. Those decisions are RIGHT. If this seems like a paradox, it is obvious that the customer is once again proving that he or she is not capable of working for Google. Achieving third prize in the cloud race is RIGHT, at least to some real Googlers. For Mr. Yegge, the crummy third place ranking is evidence of the mismatch between the techno-monopoly and cloud users and, I might add, Australia and the EU.
Mr. Yegge points out what may be a hint of the tension between the Google science club and its “wanna be” members. He writes about a Percona-centric, ready-to-use solution. He calmly points out:
Go ahead, I dare you. Follow the link and click the button. Choose “yes” to get all the default parameters and deploy the cluster to your Google Cloud project. Haha, joke’s on you; it doesn’t work. None of that [censored] works. It’s never tested, starts bit-rotting the minute they roll it out, and it wouldn’t surprise me if over half the click-to-deploy “solutions” (now we understand the air quotes) don’t work at all. It’s a completely embarrassing dark alley that you don’t want to wander down. But Google is straight-up encouraging you to use it. They want you to buy it. It’s transactional for them. They don’t want to support anything.
DarkCyber looks forward to Mr. Yegge’s next essay about the Google. Perhaps he will tackle the logic of reporting an offensive advertisement to the online monopoly. That process helps one understand a non-deprecation method in use at the A Number One science club. The management method is breathtaking.
As Eugène Ionesco noted:
“Realism falls short of reality. It shrinks it, attenuates it, falsifies it; it does not take into account our basic truths and our fundamental obsessions: love, death, astonishment. It presents man in a reduced and estranged perspective. Truth is in our dreams, in the imagination.”
The “our” is Google’s reality. If you are not a “here and now” Googler, you cannot understand.
Stephen E Arnold, August 17, 2020
Thinking about Risk: No Clip On Bow Tie
August 15, 2020
I read “Risk Bow Tie Method.” I worked through the write up, which reminded me of a reading in one of those professor-assembled Kinko’s books students HAD to purchase. The focus is a management procedure for thinking about risk. Today, there are some interesting topics which MBA study groups can consider on a thrilling Zoom call. As I examined the increasingly detailed diagrams, the procedure seemed familiar. I ratted through my files and, yes, I had a paper (maybe I snagged it at a non-Zoom conference in England in the 1990s) called “Lessons Learned from Real World Application of Bow Tie Method.” There’s version of this document available at this link.
The idea is that something happens like Covid, serial financial crashes, social unrest, private enterprise controlling information flows, etc. None of these is too serious. The idea is to make a diagram that looks like this one from the 1990s Risktec person’s write up:
If you want to be a consultant, you need a diagram without explanations. The idea is to bring discipline to a group of people who would rather check out TikTok videos, browse Facebook, or fiddle with their Robinhood account. But a job is a job, whether in person or on a Zoom call.
The advisor systematically works through the “logic” of figuring out the issues related to the minor risk an organization faces; for example, an enterprise search vendor failing to meet its financial goal for the quarter as cash burns and employees “work” from home. Yep, fill in that logical diagram.
Exercises like this are a gold mine to a consulting firm. Blue chip outfits focus on these “big picture” methods. Mid tier consulting firms and sol practitioners with a Wix Web site and Instaprint plastic stick on sign for their automobile may have trouble landing enough work to pay for working through the Bow Tie Method.
So blue chip consulting firms embrace these types of fill-in-the-blank exercises. The consultant gets to “know” the participants and can set the stage for recruiting an insider to function as a cheerleader absent pom poms. The “report” allows the consulting team to identify which options are better for the company with the data presented created by the … wait for it … the employees who participated in the Bow Tie Method process. To be fair, the consulting team has to create a PowerPoint or similar presentation. Some consulting firms just write an “Executive Memo” and move to selling follow on work.
I must admit I thought of the popular song by Stevie Wonder with these lyrics. Note: I modified the last line to match my reaction to the attempted rejuvenation of the Bow Tie Method:
His father works some days for fourteen hours
And you can bet he barely makes a dollar
His mother goes to scrub the floor for many
And you’d best believe she hardly gets a penny
Living just enough, just enough for the consulting.
Several observations:
- Is the Bow Tie Method the correct one for our interesting times? Plug in Covid, fill in the boxes, discuss options, and what do you end up with?
- Is the Bow Tie Method and other thought frameworks matched to today’s management climate? Twitter, Facebook Google, Amazon, and other FAANG outfits create risks, and I am not convinced that objective consideration of the risks to these organizations are top of mind for the top managers at this time. It seems as if the consulting frameworks have to be designed for thumbtypers and consumers of Instagram and Snap apps, not old-school frameworks from who knows where.
- The time and cost to work through a full Bow Tie Methods may increase risk for the company. Here’s how that works. The leadership of a company or country changes direction. Mixer from Microsoft. Hey, kill that dog. A Google API? No reason to provide that any more. A tweet from the White House changes the social media influencer landscape. As these here-and-now events blaze on digital devices, the time for the Bow Tie and the time for dealing with here-and-now is out of joint.
Net net: Traditional consulting methods, regardless of the fancy graphics and with-it explanations seem to be like exhibits in the British Museum. Who knew the Elgin marbles were sitting in a dark room?
Stephen E Arnold, August 15, 2020
Twitter: Another Almost Adult Moment
August 7, 2020
Indexing is useful. Twitter seems to be recognizing this fact. “Twitter to Label State-Controlled News Accounts” reports:
The company will also label the accounts of government-linked media, as well as “key government officials” from China, France, Russia, the UK and US. Russia’s RT and China’s Xinhua News will both be affected by the change. Twitter said it was acting to provide people with more context about what they see on the social network.
Long overdue, the idea of an explicit index term may allow some tweeters to get some help when trying to figure out where certain stories originate.
Twitter, a particularly corrosive social media system, has avoided adult actions. The firm’s security was characterized in a recent DarkCyber video as a clown car operation. No words were needed. The video showed a clown car.
Several questions from the DarkCyber team:
- When will Twitter verify user identities, thus eliminating sock puppet accounts? Developers of freeware manage this type of registration and verification process, not perfectly but certainly better than some other organizations’.
- When will Twitter recognize that a tiny percentage of its tweeters account for the majority of the messages and implement a Twitch-like system to generate revenue from these individuals? Pay-per-use can be implemented in many ways, so can begging for dollars. Either way, Twitter gets an identification point which may have other functions.
- When will Twitter innovate? The service is valuable because a user or sock puppet can automate content regardless of its accuracy. Twitter has been the same for a number of Internet years. Dogs do age.
Is Twitter, for whatever reason, stuck in the management mentality of a high school science club which attracts good students, just not the whiz kids who are starting companies and working for Google type outfits from their parents’ living room?
Stephen E Arnold, August 7, 2020
Spearphishing: The Pursuit of an Elusive Dorsey?
August 5, 2020
I read “Twitter Says Hack Targeted Employees Using Spearphishing.” Yep, spearphishing. That’s jargon for sending a person email and using words to obtain access. Here’s what a digital spear gun looks like:
Click away.
The write up states:
Twitter said in a security update late Thursday that the July 15 incident by bitcoin scammers stemmed from a “spear phishing” attack which deceived employees about the origin of the messages.
A bad actor, allegedly a teen, jumped in the digital ocean, carrying a mobile phone and a digital spear fishing device:
Once the target was in sight, the teen released the pointy digital stream.
The result?
The remarkable Dorsey fish appears to have been targeted by the teen.
High-tech? The write up reports:
John Dickson of the security firm Denim Group said the latest disclosure does not necessarily suggest a sophisticated attack from a nation-state. “They conned people over the phone,” Dickson said, saying it may have been possible to find targets through research on LinkedIn or Google. “This is like the original hackers from the 1980s and 1990s; they were very good at conning people and getting them to give their credentials.”
Has the Dorsey fish been beached? Did the Dorsey fish swim away? Did the Dorsey fish notice the digital attack?
No answers which satisfy DarkCyber have been forthcoming. There’s no visual evidence of the succulent Dorsey fish being steamed and served to the Twitter Board of Directors:
Looks tasty. Speared phish steamed for two minutes and then sautéed with cyber veggies.
Stephen E Arnold, August 5, 2020
When Humor and Management Theory Collide: Craziness, Maybe Worse
July 29, 2020
Two write ups made it from our news system into my “must read” file.
The first is by the Big Dog Scott Galloway. An esteemed educator, Mr. Galloway provides punditry and overtalking on the New York Magazine Pivot show. His essay “Fire & Fawning” is fascinating. The charts, the data, and the wordsmithing are noteworthy.
From DarkCyber’s point of view, Mr. Galloway is providing advice to a group of high-technology movers and shakers who are awash in lawyers, advisers, and on-the-payroll wizards.
We noted this comment:
Big tech has won before the hearing starts. Agreeing to let all four testify concurrently inhibits the committee’s ability to go deep on any one issue, and will leave the American public with a sentiment instead of a viewpoint on big tech, much less any conclusions (such as, that the Obama DOJ was asleep at the switch, and Instagram and Whatsapp should be divested). The Covid-inspired remote format dramatically lessens the likelihood of an unscripted moment that reveals something the American public didn’t previously know. Fabric softener for tough questioning is the deep pockets that keep members in power.
If the hearings are “over,” why are an additional 2,200 words required? Answer: The write up is for the elected officials who will be conducting the session. However, elected officials have lawyers, advisers, and “interns” to prepare, review, and make sense of the million plus documents available to the group doing the asking.
The key difference is the billionaire status of those responding, and the billionaire access to wizards.
Granted, political hearings are unlikely to “win” or achieve very much. Maybe some of the interns will get jobs working for the billionaires and get a chance to earn the coveted “wizard” status.
And the data in the write up? Statistical information can be shaped, discredited, and shown to be orthogonal to other data. The art is nice, however.
Net net: The write up plays to a particular audience yet maintains the overtalking tone ill-suited for a podcast and for a “business” essay designed to tell people what to do.
The second essay is “Advice for Jeff Bezos on testifying before Congress from me, the totally real Bill Gates.” The focus is narrowed to Mr. Bezos by a Silicon Valley “real” news outfit. The tone is familiar; for example, “Jeff, buddy.” The intent shares some DNA with Mr. Galloway’s overtalking. Specifically, this Silicon Valley “real” news essay reminded me something called “satirical commentary.” One of the required classes I had to endure 50 plus years ago forced me to read mocking essays and figure out what some guy who lived in Twickenham did to earn the name “the wicked wasp.” This Silicon Valley “real” news outfit’s effort struck me as tone deaf and — I need a neologism I think — snotical. Snotical is a combination of snotty and cynical. The sting? Yes, where is thy sting?
Net net: The write is likely to be ignored by Mr. Bezos’ legions of lawyer, advisers, and quite bright worker bee drone humanoids.
Stepping back from the two essays, three observations I wish to offer are:
- Public advice is Monday morning quarterbacking and about as useful
- Those far from the fray demonstrate their lack of understanding of hearing processes
- New Age hippy dippy management analyses are little more than TikTok videos in prose.
Stephen E Arnold, July 29, 2020
Adulting: An Update
July 26, 2020
DarkCyber wants to call attention to examples of adulting. The term refers to a behavior once associated with a responsible, civic-minded firm. High technology companies embrace the principles of high school science club management. Perhaps these examples indicate that high schooling is yielding to adulting, just slowly and with baby steps.
Example 1. “Google will replace Nest thermostats affected by w5 Wi-Fi error” reports a responsible action by the GOOG.
Example 2. “Twitter says it’s looking at subscription options as ad revenue drops sharply” suggests that one of the all-teen, all-the-time darlings of the technically elite may think about an action DarkCyber considers long overdue. We will have to wait and see. Adulting is painful, a bit like giving up one’s dream of running two companies from a far off land.
Example 3. “Amazon, Google and Wish remove neo-Nazi products” reveals that three essentially manic science club operations have reached a simultaneous moment of maturing. Each will remove products identified with potentially destructive concepts. Maturity comes slowly it seems even in the zoom zoom world of high technology.
Stephen E Arnold, July 27, 2020
Facebook: Grudgingly Takes Steps Toward Adulthood
July 21, 2020
I read “FB Says Open to Be Held Accountable over Users’ Data.” The write up reports:
Admitting that it does not have all the answers when it comes to ensuring data privacy, Facebook has said there are many opportunities for businesses and regulators to embrace modern design methods and collaborate to find innovative ways to hold organizations, including itself, accountable.
Interesting. Facebook was founded in 2004. Sixteen years old and ready for a drivers license. Baby steps are good.
Stephen E Arnold, July 21, 2020
Muffing the Bunny: The Skype Animal
July 15, 2020
Sad news. One of the founding Skype engineers has died. We crossed paths at a conference in 2009. The news appeared in “Estonian Engineer Who Helped Develop Skype Passes Away at 48.”
The write up contained this summary of the trajectory of Skype:
eBay acquired Skype in 2005 for $2.6 billion…Skype became a part of Microsoft in 2012. Microsoft has said it would continue to invest in Skype that has crossed 40 million daily active users. Purchased for $8.5 billion, Skype communication tool has failed to keep up with other messaging rivals to date, while Microsoft Teams has seen a meteoric rise as millions of people work from home.
eBay had the service and accidentally ran over the Skype bunny with a riding mower. The three legged Skype was acquired by Microsoft, a company which has managed to make the interface particularly interesting. Someone like a day laborer for the Spanish Inquisition would add it to a collection in which an Iron Maiden plays a prominent part.
Now in 2020 it is teams.
Any thoughts about the trajectory of Skype and eBay’s and Microsoft’s strategic vision regarding video chat via the Internet?
How much longer will the bunny live? Beyond 15 years?
Stephen E Arnold, July 15, 2020
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