Search: The Moonshot for Alphabet Google YouTube Etc. May Be Off by Miles
September 6, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
Google is now 25. Yep, a quarter century. If you want to read a revisionist history of the beloved firm, point your Chrome browser (yep, it is part of the alleged monopoly) at “Questions, Shrugs and What Comes Next: A Quarter Century of Change.” The cited article appears in the Google blog (does anyone remember Blogger or what about the Google blog search?). The idea is that Sundar Pichai logged into a Google workspace (yep, that’s the software system intended to deal Microsoft a mortal blow).
I just wanted to hire a normal clown. It was not possible. The clown search became a monster. Let’s have fun! Thanks, MidJourney, you old gradient descent entity.
What does Mr. Pichai write, allegedly without the assistance of other Googlers, advisors, and legal eagles?
One of this statements is:
Search is still at the core of our mission, and it’s still our biggest moonshot with so much more to do.
Okay, I want to stop there. I wanted to find a service in Louisville, Kentucky, that sends clowns to birthday parties. Pretty simple, right. I entered the query “Louisville Kentucky clowns birthday parties.” I expected to see a list of people or companies in the clown rental business. Wrong? I received this output from the “biggest moonshot” outfit:
The top hit was to The Bash, a service which lists clowns. That link pointed me to Bunny Bear Entertainment and Salem Sisters 502. No phone number, just a link to get a free quote. Okay, that looks good. Click on the link and what happens? A form appears and someone will contact me. Yeah, I wanted to talk to a person.
The second hit was to Phillips (presenting itself as kiddyskingdom.com) at a toll free number. Same deal. A referral service. No, I could not talk to a human in Louisville.
The third hit was to About Faces. Yep, another SEO-ized reseller of clown services. No phone number for me to call to talk to a real live clown.
Several observations:
- Google search (the moonshot) is not useful. It creates work; it does not provide what I wanted.
- Google’s business is selling ads which are funding Google Cloud ambitions to break out of the one-trick-pony pejorative aimed at the company by the Softie Steve Ballmer a long time ago.
- The blog post is a marketing pitch for Google’s smart software.
Net net: Vintage Google operating without regard to regulatory scrutiny, allegations that the company is a monopoly, or managing people in a way that is what I hoped the clown company would provide to me: Laughs.
A “healthy disregard for the impossible.” Sure. I trust Google. I believe the Google. But delivering on point search results. I don’t need a clown for that. I have one.
Stephen E Arnold, September 6, 2023
Gartner Hype Cycle: Some Pointed Criticism from Analytics India
September 5, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read the Analytics India article “Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a Waste of Time.” The “hype cycle” is a graph designed to sell consulting services. My personal perception is that Gideon or a close compatriot talked about the Boston Consulting Group’s version of General Eisenhower’s two by two matrix. Here’s an example of
I want to credit Chris Adams article about the Eisenhower Matrix. You can find Mr. Adams’ write up at this link. I don’t know what General Eisenhower’s inspiration was, but the BCG adaptation was consulting marketing genius. Here’s an example of the BCG variant:
This illustration comes from Business to You at this link.
Before looking at a Gartner graph goodie, I want to point out that the BCG innovation was to make the icons relate to numbers. BCG pointed to the “dogs” icon and then showed the numbers like market share, product costs, etc. that converted an executive in love with the status quo to consider rehoming the dogs or just put a beloved pet down. In the lingo of one blue chip outfit, the dog could find its future elsewhere.
I did a Bing image search for Gartner hype cycle and found a cornucopia of outputs. Here’s one I selected because it looked better than some of the others:
If you want to view a readable version, navigate to this Medium post by Compassionate Technologies of which I have zero knowledge. (But do the words “technology” and “compassion” go together?)
The key point about the Gartner graph is that they all look alike; that is, the curves don’t change, which is the point I guess. A technology begins at point 0,0 and moves up a hockey stick curve (maybe the increasing hype) and then appear to flatten out. I am confident that the Gartner experts are not gathering technology market and investment data and thinking in terms of linear regression, standard deviation, or a calculator on a mobile phone.
The client says, “Your team’s report strikes me as filled with unsupported assertions. My company cannot accept the analysis. We won’t pay the fee for this type of work.” Oh, oh. Thanks, MidJourney, close to my prompt but close only counts in horse shoes.
The difference between the BCG graph is that numbers are used to explain the “dogs,” “stars,” etc. The Gartner graph is a marketing vehicle. Those have read my essays over the years know that I view the world with some baked in biases; for example, the BCG graph is great marketing which leads to substantive consulting. This is one characteristic of a blue chip consulting firm. The Gartner graph is subjective or impressionistic, a bit like a Van Gogh night sky. Sure, there are stars, but those puppies don’t look like swirlies to me. Thus, Gartner is to me a mid tier consulting firm. Some consumers of these types of marketing graphs use them to justify certain actions; for instance, selecting a particular type of software. When the software goes off the rails, the data-starved impressionistic chart leaves some hungry for more data. When another project comes along, the firm may seek a blue-chip outfit even if its work is more expensive.
Now back to the Analytics India article cited above.
The author makes a statement with which I agree:
The Gartner Hype Cycle is not science, but Gartner presents it as an established law.
Exactly. This is marketing, not the BCG analytics centric Eisenhower 2×2 matrix.
Here’s another passage from the write up (originally from Michael Mullany):
Many technologies simply fade away with time or die. According to Michael Mullany, an additional 20% of all technologies that were tracked for multiple years on the Hype Cycle became obsolete before reaching any kind of mainstream success. The Gartner Hype Cycle is not science, but Gartner presents it as an established natural law. Expressing similar sentiments, a user on Hacker News wrote, “Why do people think the Gartner Hype Cycle is a law of Physics?” when in fact, the Hype Cycle lacks empirical backing and fails to consider technologies that deviate from its prescribed path.
Yep, marketing.
Do I care? Not any more. When I was doing consulting to buy cheap fuel for my Pinto (the kind that would explode if struck from behind), I did care. The blue chip outfit at which I worked was numbers oriented. That was a good thing.
Stephen E Arnold, September 5, 2023
Microsoft Pop Ups: Take Screen Shots
August 31, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read “Microsoft Is Using Malware-Like Pop-Ups in Windows 11 to Get People to Ditch Google.” Kudos to the wordsmiths at TheVerge.com for avoiding the term “po*n storm” to describe the Windows 11 alleged pop ups.
A person in the audience says, “What’s that pop up doing up there?” Thanks, MJ. Another so so piece of original art.
The write up states:
I have no idea why Microsoft thinks it’s ok to fire off these pop-ups to Windows 11 users in the first place. I wasn’t alone in thinking it was malware, with posts dating back three months showing Reddit users trying to figure out why they were seeing the pop-up.
What popups for three months? I love “real” news when it is timely.
The article includes this statement:
Microsoft also started taking over Chrome searches in Bing recently to deliver a canned response that looks like it’s generated from Microsoft’s GPT-4-powered chatbot. The fake AI interaction produced a full Bing page to entirely take over the search result for Chrome and convince Windows users to stick with Edge and Bing.
How can this be? Everyone’s favorite software company would not use these techniques to boost Credge’s market share, would it?
My thought is that Microsoft’s browser woes began a long time ago in an operating system far, far away. As a result, Credge is lagging behind Googzilla’s browser. Unless Google shoots itself in both feet and fires a digital round into the beastie’s heart, the ad monster will keep on sucking data and squeezing out alternatives.
The write up does not seem to be aware that Google wants to control digital information flows. Microsoft will need more than popups to prevent the Chrome browser from becoming the primary access mechanism to the World Wide Web. Despite Microsoft’s market power, users don’t love the Microsoft Credge thing. Hey, Microsoft, why not pay people to use Credge.
Stephen E Arnold, August 31, 2023
Aylo: Another Branding Moment?
August 24, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid. Also, I have inserted an asterisk (*) instead of a vowel to sidestep some of the smart software which is making certain types of essays almost impossible to find. Isn’t the modern “mother knows best” approach to information just great?
I wish I had gone to MBA school. My mind struggles with what pod-famous people describe as one of the most significant marketing decisions. Okay? I guess. I worked for a short time at a company called “Bell+Howell” which had acquired a company called “University Microfilms” from Xerox. How’s that for a genetic analysis. I recall one of the incredibly dull drill bits boring me with tales of the “first” devices for a “personal office system.” Obviously this former Xerox manager now with his machine oil slick hands on the controls of a high-technology company was proud of what I considered a case study in pounding nails with one’s head repeated over and over: “Mr. Arnold, we do not say to our assistants, ‘Xerox this for me, please.’ We say, “Photocopy it, please.” Yeah, I still go to the instant print store and say, “I need 10 Xeroxes of this document, please.” The teen behind the counter, grunts, and asks, “One side or two?” I think the person understood my use of the word “Xerox.”
This is not an apple. An apple is the proprietary, trademarked, registered, and fiercely protected name of a company that makes a mobile phone. If you thought this was a fruit, you are not paying attention. MidJourney delivered this perspiring apple on the first try. Do not use a word on the stop word list in your prompt. Also, do not order a “coke” when you mean cola drink. Do not say “Xerox” when you want a photocopy. Do not say “p*rn” when you want Aylo (not the musician, thank you).
You get my angle of recollection: Xerox machine in the college library becomes Xerox a verb to make a copy. Hand me a Kleenex. The same. Also, I will have a coke. When I say this at the GenX restaurant near my office, I get this: “We have Pepsi products?” My response is, “Sure, whatever. Thank you.”
What happens in my lectures for law enforcement and intelligence professionals if I show edited images from P*rnhub service? My hunch is that the word P*rnhub does not mean Aylo. For some cyber crime investigators, one brand sticks. The name “Aylo” is going to be something one has to learn. Remember. I am 78 and I still say, “Xerox copy.”
“P*rnhub Parent MindGeek Changing Its Name As New Owners Seek Fresh Start” reports a story which adds to this year’s case studies about product and service branding. The article reports as allegedly actual factual:
MindGeek — which has faced scrutiny in recent years for allegedly hosting content involving revenge p*rn, child sex abuse, and victims of sex-trafficking — is rebranding to the name “Aylo” effectively immediately, the company said. The “Aylo” name is likely to lead to some head-scratching — but a company spokesperson said the word was chosen specifically because it doesn’t have a meaning and can’t be found in the dictionary.
I think that the female singer Aylo may find that running a query for her music may produce some unusual results for her teenaged fans. Obviously MindGeek / P*rnhub does not agree. I think I should say, “The new owners of P*rnhub do not agree.” I would wager a copy of my October 2, 2023, keynote for the Massachusetts/New York Association of Crime Analysts’ speech that the marketing wizards who “created” or possibly “borrowed” the word are uninterested in this performer:
Aylo ist next. Niemand sonst derzeit verbindet so authentisch ein Gefühl für die Straße mit einem Gespür für großen Pop. So hat es die Berlinerin mit nur einer Handvoll Songs zur heißesten Newcomerin im Deutschrap gebracht. Hunderttausende Fans auf TikTok können sich nicht irren: Aylo ist echt – und sie ist ein echter Star. Aylo ist jeden Tag am grinden. Mit Tracks wie Kein Limit, Wach, Feuer und Blender deckt sie das komplette Spektrum ab, das sie so besonders macht: von Liebesliedern bis Ansage, von Drip bis Depri, von Super-Pop bis Straße. Und manchmal auch alles gleichzeitig.
The new owners of this well-known vendor of adult content is Ethical Capital Partners. I love the branding of the buy out firm. It pairs the ethos of modern business and the life blood of an MBA: Ethical and Capital. Perfect for adult content and what the cited news story positions as “hosting content involving revenge p*rn, child sex abuse, and victims of sex-trafficking.” I wonder if Socrates when writing or more accurately compiling Nicomachean Ethics thought of positioning his argument in terms of revenge p*rn, child sex abuse, and victims of sex-trafficking. Who knows? Greece had a different moral view in 350 BCE from an MBA working at a financial services firm I would hazard.
I looked up the Canadian company and learned:
Ethical Capital Partners (ECP) is a private equity firm managed by a multi-disciplinary advisory team with legal, regulatory, law enforcement, public engagement, capital markets and investment banking experience. We seek out investment and advisory opportunities in industries that require principled ethical leadership. ECP invests in opportunities that focus on technology, have legal and regulatory complexity and that put a value on transparency and accountability. ECP’s philosophy is rooted in identifying properties amenable to our responsible investment approach and that have the potential to create attractive returns over a compelling time horizon.
Socrates would have understood. What do you think?
This branding effort is likely to be as confusing at Twitter’s becoming the letter X. I want to point out that searching for certain letters and words can be a challenge. Smart search engines have smart word lists. If you are not familiar with this silent helpers, navigate to this list and get a sense of what may impair findability.
Those MBAs have a knack for making interesting decisions. I love that word pair “ethical capital.” Will it become a bound phrase like “White House” or “Wall Street”?
Stephen E Arnold, August 24, 2023
Google Mandiant on Influence Campaigns: Hey, They Do Not Work Very Well
August 18, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
“AI Use Rising in Influence Campaigns Online, But Impact Limited – US Cyber Firm” is a remarkable report for three reasons: [a] The write up does not question why the report was generated at this time, the dead of summer. [b] What methods were used to determine that online “manipulative information campaigns” were less than effective, and [c] What data substantiate that the “problem” will get “bigger over time”.
The speaker says, “Online information campaigns do not work too well. Nevertheless, you should use them because it generates money. And money, as you know, is the ultimate good.” MidJourney did a C job of rendering a speaker with whom the audience disagrees.
Frankly I view this type of cyber security report as a public relations and marketing exercise. Why would a dinobaby like me view this information generated by the leader in online information finding, pointing, and distributing as specious? One reason is that paid advertising is a version of “manipulative information campaigns.” Therefore, the report suggests that Google’s online advertising business is less effective than Google has for 20 years explained as an effective way to generate leads and sales.
Second, I am skeptical about dismissing the impact of online manipulative information campaigns as a poor way to cause a desired thought or action. Sweden has set up a government agency to thwart anti-Sweden online information. Nation states continue to use social media, state controlled or state funded online newsletters to output information specifically designed to foster a specific type of behavior. Examples range from self harm messaging to videos about the perils of allowing people to vote in a fair election.
Third, the problem is a significant one. Amazon has a fake review problem. The solution may be to allow poorly understood algorithms to generate “reviews.” Data about the inherent bias and the ability of developers of smart software to steer results are abundant. Let me give an example. Navigate to MidJourney and ask for an image of a school building on fire. The system will not generate the image. This decision is based on inputs from humans who want to keep the smart software generating “good” images. Google’s own capabilities to block certain types of medical information illustrate the knobs and dials available to a small group of high technology companies which are alleged monopolies.
Do I believe the Google Mandiant information? Maybe some. But there are two interesting facets of this report which I want to highlight.
The first is that the Mandiant information undercuts what Google has suggested is the benefit of its online advertising business; that is, it works. Mandiant’s report seems to say, “Well, not too well.”
The second is that the article cited is from Thomson Reuters. The “trust principles” phrase appears on the story. Nevertheless ignores the likelihood that the Mandiant study is probably a fairly bad PR effort. Yep, trust. Not so much for this dinobaby.
Stephen E Arnold, August 18, 2023
Amazon, Arm, and Softbank: A Happy Coincidence Indeed
August 18, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I try not to think about Amazon, Arm, and Softbank. Oh, let me add a footnote to the “Amazon” reference. When deliveries do not arrive or I am scammed, then I do think about Amazon. But most of the time, it is a digital discount store located in a low-rent district.
However, I noted an article about Amazon which caused me to wrinkle my already crinkly brow; specifically, ”Amazon Has More Than Half of All Arm Server CPUs in the World” uses a trigger word for me — “all.” But that is news headline writing today. The main assertion in the article is that Amazon with its multi-billion dollar server business has more Arm CPUs than Apple has three nanometer fabrication commitments. Why are these giant companies involved in “real news” which seems focused on stock amping than improving technology or privacy protections?
Then I remembered that Softbank, an outfit that is losing money on almost 70 percent of its investments, according to the Financial Times, wants to convert Arm into an initial public offering. I then wondered, “Is this confluence of seemingly disparate factoids a happy coincidence?”
My hunch is that somewhere, somehow, an inspired PR / SEO / or marketing professional thought it would be a good idea to pitch Softbank as a giant in the land of artificial intelligence. AI is hot; Softbank’s financials are, in my opinion, not so hot.
The question becomes, “How accurate is the information about these Arm chips?” and “Is the PR push part of an activity which I cannot discern?” And there is the “all”. How important is the Arm IPO dream if Amazon shifts to a different CPU? Good vibrations strike me as important for both Amazon and Softbank.
Stephen E Arnold, August 18, 2023
Another High School Tactic: I Am Hurt, Coach
August 7, 2023
This is a rainy Monday (August 7, 2023). From my point of view, the content flowing across my monitoring terminal is not too exciting. More security issue, 50-50 financial rumor mongering, and adult Internet users may be monitored (the world is coming to an end!). But in the midst of this semi-news was an item called “Musk Says He May Need Surgery, Will Get MRI on Back and Neck.” Wow. The ageing icon of self-driving autos which can run over dinobabies like me has dipped into his management Book of Knowledge for a tactic to avoid a “cage match” with the lovable Zuck, master of Threads and beloved US high-technology social media king thing.
“What do you mean, your neck hurts? I need you for the big game on Saturday. Win and you will be more famous than any other wizard with smart cars, rockets, and a social media service.” says the assistant coach. Thanks MidJourney, you are a sport.
You can get the information from the cited story, which points out:
The world’s richest person said he will know this week whether surgery will be required, ahead of his proposed cage fight with Meta Platforms Inc. co-founder Mark Zuckerberg. He previously said he “might need an operation to strengthen the titanium plate holding my C5/C6 vertebrae together.”
Mr. Zuckerberg allegedly is revved and ready. The write up reports:
Zuckerberg posted Sunday on Threads that he suggested Aug. 26 for the match and he’s still awaiting confirmation. “I’m ready today,” he said. “Not holding my breath.”
From my point of view, the tactic is similar to “the dog ate my homework.” This variant — I couldn’t do my homework because I was sick — comes directly from the Guide to the High School Science Club Management Method, known internationally as GHSSCMM. The information in this well-known business manual has informed outstanding decision making in personnel methods (Dr. Timnit Gebru, late of Google), executives giving themselves more money before layoffs (too many companies to identify in a blog post like this), and appearing in US Congressional hearings (Thank you for the question. I don’t know. I will have the information delivered to your office).
Health problems can be problematic. Will the cage match take place? What if Mr. Musk says, “I can fight.” Will Mr. Zuckerberg respond, “I sprained my ankle”? What does the GHSSCMM suggest in a tit-for-tat dynamic?
Perhaps we should ask both Mr. Musk’s generative AI system and the tame Zuckerberg LLAMLA? That’s “real” news.
Stephen E Arnold, August 7, 2023
Cyber Security Firms Gear Up: Does More Jargon Mean More Sales? Yes, Yes, Yes
July 31, 2023
I read a story which will make stakeholders in cyber security firms turn cartwheels. Imagine not one, not two, not three, but 10 uncertainty inducing, sleepless night making fears.
The young CEO says, “I can’t relax. I just see endless strings of letters floating before my eyes: EDR EPP XDR ITDR, MTD, M, SASE, SSE, UES, and ZTNA. My heavens, ZTNA. Horrible. Who can help me?” MidJourney has a preference for certain types of feminine CEOs. I wonder if there is bias in the depths of the machine.
Navigate to “The Top 10 Technologies Defining the Future of Cybersecurity.” Read the list. Now think about how vulnerable your organization is. You will be compromised. The only question is, “When?”
What are these fear inducers? I will provide the acronyms. You will have to go to the cited article and learn what they mean. Think of this as a two-punch FUD moment. I provide the acronyms which are unfamiliar and mildly disconcerting. Then read the explanations and ask, “Will I have to buy bigger, better, and more cyber security services?” I shall answer your question this way, “Does an electric vehicle require special handling when the power drops to a goose egg?”
Here are the FUD-ronyms:
- EDR
- EPP
- XDR
- ITDR
- MTD
- M
- SASE
- SSE
- UES
- ZTNA.
Scared yet?
Stephen E Arnold, July 31, 2023
The Frontier Club: Doing Good with AI?
July 28, 2023
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
I read some of the stories about several big outfits teaming to create “the frontier model forum.” I have no idea what the phrase means.
MidJourney created this interesting representation of a meeting of a group similar to the Frontier Model Forum. True, MidJourney presented young people in what seems to be an intense, intellectual discussion. Upon inspection, the subject is the décor for a high school prom. Do the decorations speak to the millions who are going without food, or do the decorations underscore the importance of high value experiences for those with good hair? I have no idea, but it reminds me of a typical high school in-group confabulation.
To fill the void, I turned to the gold standard in technology Pablum and the article “Major Generative AI Players Join to Create the Frontier Model Forum.” That’s a good start. I think I interpreted collusion between the syllables of the headline.
I noted this passage, hoping to satisfy my curiosity: According to a statement issued by the four companies [Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI] Wednesday, the Forum will offer membership to organizations that design and develop large-scale generative AI tools and platforms that push the boundaries of what’s currently possible in the field. The group says those “frontier” models require participating organizations to “demonstrate a strong commitment to frontier model safety,” and to be “willing to contribute to advancing the Forum’s efforts by
participating in joint initiatives.”
Definitely clear. Are there companies not in the list? I know of several in France, China has some independent free thinkers beavering away at AI, and probably a handful of others. Don’t they count?
The article makes it clear that doing good results from the “frontier” thing. I had a high school history teacher named Earl Skaggs. His avocation was documenting the interesting activities which took place on the American frontier. He was a veritable analog Wiki on the subjects of claim jumping, murder, robbery, swindling, rustling, and illegal gambling. I am confident that this high-tech “frontier” thing will be ethical, stable, and focused on the good of the people. Am I an unenlightened dinobaby?
I noted this statement:
“Companies creating AI technology have a responsibility to ensure that it is safe, secure, and remains under human control,” Brad Smith, Microsoft vice chair and president, said in a statement. “This initiative is a vital step to bring the tech sector together in advancing AI responsibly and tackling the challenges so that it benefits all of humanity.”
Mr. Smith is famous for his explanation of 1,000 programmers welded into a cyber attack force to take advantage of Microsoft. He also may be unaware of Israel’s smart weapons; for example, see the comments in “Revolutionizing Warfare: Israel Implements AI Systems in Military Operations.” Obviously the frontier thing is designed to prevent such weaponization. Since Israel is chugging away with smart weapons in use, my hunch is that the PR jargon handwaving is not working.
Net net: How long will the meetings of the “frontier thing” become contentious? One of my team said, “Never, this group will never meet in person. PR is the goal.” Goodness, this person is skeptical. If I were an Israeli commander using smart weapons to protect my troops, I would issue orders to pull back the smart stuff and use the same outstanding tactics evidenced by a certain nation state’s warriors in central Europe. How popular would that make the commander?
Do I know what the Frontier Model Forum is? Yep, PR.
Stephen E Arnold, July 28, 2023
Open AI and Its Alignment Pipeline
July 12, 2023
![Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[1]](http://arnoldit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t1-15.gif "Vea4_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb_t[1]")
Note: This essay is the work of a real and still-alive dinobaby. No smart software involved, just a dumb humanoid.
Yep, alignment pipeline. No, I have zero clue what that means. I came across this felicitous phrase in “OpenAI Co-Founder Warns Superintelligent AI Must Be Controlled to Prevent Possible Human Extinction.” The “real news” story focuses on the PR push for Sam AI-Man’s OpenAI outfit. The idea for the story strikes me as a PR confection, but I am a dinobaby. Dinobabies can be skeptical.
An OpenAI professional explains to some of his friends that smart software may lead to human extinction. Maybe some dogs and cockroaches will survive. He points out that his company may save the world with an alignment pipeline. The crowd seems to be getting riled up. Someone says, “What’s an alignment pipeline.” A happy honk from the ArnoldIT logo to the ever-creative MidJourney system. (Will it be destroyed too?)
The write up reports a quote from one of Sam AI-Man’s colleagues; to wit:
“Superintelligence will be the most impactful technology humanity has ever invented, and could help us solve many of the world’s most important problems. But the vast power of superintelligence could also be very dangerous, and could lead to the disempowerment of humanity or even human extinction,” Ilya Sutskever and head of alignment Jan Leike wrote in a Tuesday blog post, saying they believe such advancements could arrive as soon as this decade.
There you go. Global warming, the threat of nuclear discharges in Japan and Ukraine, post-Covid hangover, and human extinction. Okay
What’s interesting to this dinobaby is that OpenAI made a decision to make the cloud service available. OpenAI hooked up with the thoughtful, kind, and humane Microsoft. OpenAI forced the somewhat lethargic Googzilla to shift into gear and respond.
The Murdoch article presents another OpenAI wizard output:
“Currently, we don’t have a solution for steering or controlling a potentially superintelligent AI, and preventing it from going rogue. Our current techniques for aligning AI, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback, rely on humans’ ability to supervise AI. But humans won’t be able to reliably supervise AI systems much smarter than us and so our current alignment techniques will not scale to superintelligence,” they wrote. “We need new scientific and technical breakthroughs.”
This type of jibber jabber is fascinating. I wonder why the OpenAI folks did not do a bit of that “what if” thinking before making the service available. Yeah, woulda, shoulda, coulda. It sounds to me like a driver saying to a police officer, “I didn’t mean to run over Grandma Wilson.”
How does that sound to the grand children, Grandma’s insurance company, and the judge?
Sounds good, but someone ran over Grandma Wilson, right, Mr. OpenAI wizards? Answer the question, please.
The OpenAI geniuses have an answer, and I quote:
To solve these problems, within a period of four years, they said they’re leading a new team and dedicating 20% of the compute power secured to date to this effort. “While this is an incredibly ambitious goal and we’re not guaranteed to succeed, we are optimistic that a focused, concerted effort can solve this problem,” they said.
Now the capstone:
Its goal is to devise a roughly human-level automated alignment researcher, using vast amounts of compute to scale it and “iteratively align superintelligence.” In order to do so, OpenAI will develop a scalable training method, validate the resulting model and then stress test its alignment pipeline.
Yes, the alignment pipeline. What a crock of high school science club yip yap. Par for the course today. Nice thinking, PR people. One final thought: Grandma is dead. CYA words may not impress some people. To a high school science club type, the logic and the committee make perfect sense. Good work, Mr. AI-Men.
Stephen E Arnold, July 12, 2023
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