With Q, Whither Watson?
January 20, 2019
It was a trying summer for IBM’s Watson as its Oncology software received some harsh criticism. Will new leadership improve the program? We learn IBM replaced Watson Health’s former head, Deborah DiSanzo, with John Kelly, previously their senior V.P. of Cognitive Solutions and Research, from Computerworld’s article, “Did IBM Overhype Watson Health’s AI Promise?” We would say the answer to that rhetorical question is, you bet!
Writer Lucas Mearian describes the troublesome July report published in Stat News. That report revealed that Watson Oncology, which is being used in several real-life healthcare facilities, had recommended “unsafe and incorrect” treatments for hypothetical patients. The Computerworld article touches on the company’s defense (or denial, depending on who you listen to), as well as covering some early problems that plagued the program. See the piece for those details. We are reminded that it takes time to fully train machine learning software, and told the AI has simply not had enough time or quality data to meet the hype generated by the sales team. Not yet.
The article closes with a look ahead, citing IBM’s relatively recent purchases of healthcare data analytics-firm Explorys, patient communications company Phytel, and Truven Health Analytics. Quoting Cynthia Burghard of IDC Health Insights, Mearian writes:
Upon completing all three acquisitions, IBM boasted its Watson Health Cloud housed “one of the world’s largest and most diverse collections of health-related data, representing an aggregate of approximately 300 million patient lives acquired from three companies. They all in their own right, before they were acquired, were very successful companies and had good, strong, loyal client bases and were plugging along.”… In late October, IBM announced plans to seed its new hybrid cloud model for Watson by first moving data from insurance payer systems. For that, Truven will be key. Once payer data is moved to the hybrid cloud, the electronic medical records (EMRs) acquired through the Explorys acquisition will follow, Kelly said.
IBM is not the first company to have its sales team outrun its developers, with an IBM quantum computer ready for prime time, what happens when one combines the two?
One possible answer is more marketing.
Cynthia Murrell, January 20, 2019
Elsevier Excitement: Not an Oxymoron
January 16, 2019
Professional publishing – the information designed for lawyers, accountants, scientists, technologists, and their ilk – is usually a quiet place. Notice that I did not say, “Dull.”
Now one of the leaders in this small club of gatekeepers has evidenced some actual management excitement at least here in Harrod’s Creek.
According to Inside Higher Education:
The entire editorial board of the Elsevier-owned Journal of Informetrics resigned Thursday in protest over high open-access fees, restricted access to citation data and commercial control of scholarly work. Today, the same team is launching a new fully open-access journal called Quantitative Science Studies.
Most of the folks outside the STEM world of publishing are unaware that many professional publishers rely on a very reliable business model. Some of its features include:
- Work with august academic institutions to make sure the paper based “publish or perish” model is required for anything close to a tenure track or a jump in pay
- Charge the authors for various things. Remember. The authors have to publish in esteemed journals which are in theory reviewed by hard working peers. The idea is to make sure those fudged data are identified and stopped before the vetted paper is published. Non reproducible results? Let’s not talk about those.
- Charge the academic institutions with the tenure track and aspiring scholars to subscribe to these peer reviewed journals.
- Recycle the content in different ways to generate downstream revenue from online databases and services.
- Work with vendors who create digital or microfilm versions of the older versions of the publications to generate royalties.
Most of these methods are little known and only partially understood by individuals who don’t pay much attention to a $2,000 for four issues paper publication.
Now the revolt is indeed exciting. The write up does the normal journalism thing. The good stuff is the business model, the somewhat generous money generating mechanisms from which the authors and the institutions are excluded, and the fact that scholarly information is only available to those with the money to pay for these documents.
Is this the beginning of the end for Elsevier-type outfits and their close cousins, the Reed Elsevier type outfits?
To me this is an interesting question.
Stephen E Arnold, January 16, 2019
Factualities for January 16, 2018
January 16, 2019
Data are everywhere. And we know that the information in nuggets is credible, accurate, and essential for making decisions quickly. What’s wrong with using factualities? Nothing. Absolutely solid gold in each item.
One hour. The lead time a pilot has when relying on IBM Watson to predict turbulence. Now for horse races. Source: Jim Harris
100,000. The number of times spyware is downloaded from the Google Play service. Source: Digit.in
$3.7 million. Amount generated by a hacking group using the Ryuk ransomware. Source: Ars Technica
100. The number of types of inappropriate content banned by Chinese authorities. Source: Financial Times with a pay wall to make the factoid more valuable.
244. Number of secret Netflix categories. Source: Netflix Codes
$11. Cost of a training program which will teach you to do well on a programming interview. Source: Next Web
$17,164 per hour. The cost to run 2.5 million AWS HPC Tasks using 40,000 EC2 Spot Instances for 8 hours. Source: Jeff Barr, Amazon guru
48 percent. In 96 months, the growth of people viewing television over-the-air. Source: Techcrunch
Ah, crunchy factualities. Good for the mobile decision maker. Tasty too.
Stephen E Arnold, January 16, 2019
Ignoring Amazon: Risky, Short Sighted, Maybe Not an Informed Decision
January 15, 2019
I read “AWS, MongoDB, and the Economic Realities of Open Source.” The write up does a good job of explaining how convenience can generate cash for old line businesses.
The essay then runs down the features of a typical open source business model; namely, money comes from proprietary add ons, services, training, etc. Accurate and helpful is the discussion. Few people recognize the vulnerability of this type of open source model for companies not in a “winner take all position.” A good example is Elastic’s success, and the lack of success of other open source search systems which are in most cases pretty good.
The discussion of Amazon explains that Amazon is in the service business; specifically, the software-as-a-service business. That’s mostly correct. I have given two or three talks about Amazon’s use of AWS in the law enforcement and intelligence sector, and I have to be honest. Few understood what I was emphasizing. Amazon is a disruption machine. I call it the Bezos bulldozer.
The write up draws parallels with the music business case with which the Stratechery essay begins. I understand the parallel. I agree with this statement:
AWS is not selling MongoDB: what they are selling is “performance, scalability, and availability.” DocumentDB is just one particular area of many where those benefits are manifested on AWS. Make no mistake: these benefits are valuable.
The point of the write up is mostly on the money as well. I noted this statement:
…the debate on the impact of cloud services on open source has been a strident one for a while now. I think, though, that the debate gets sidetracked by (understandable) discussions about “fairness” and what AWS supposedly owes open source. Yes, companies like MongoDB Inc. and Redis Labs worked hard, and yes, AWS is largely built on open source, but the world is governed by economic realities, not subjective judgments of fairness.
There are several facets of Amazon’s system and method for competition which may be more important than the inclusion of open source software in its suite of “conveniences.”
At some point, I would welcome conference organizers, MBAs, and open source mavens to address such questions as:
- What is the ease of entry or implementation for open source services on AWS?
- What is the future of training developers to use the AWS system? Who does the training?
- What is the short term benefit to Amazon to have developers use open source and the AWS platform to create new products and services?
- What is the long term benefit to Amazon to have new products and services become successful on the AWS platform?
- What is the mid term impact on procurements for commercial and government entities?
- What is the shape of the Bezos bulldozer’s approach to lock in?
I was recently informed by a conference organizer that no one had interest in Amazon’s disruption of the policeware and intelware sector.
Do you think that the organizer’s conclusion was informed? Do you think open source is more than the digital equivalent of a gateway drug?
I do. For information about the DarkCyber briefing on Amazon’s policeware and intelware “play,” write benkent2020 at yahoo dot com.
Stephen E Arnold, January 15, 2019
Amazon Fear: A New Marketing Hook for Google and the Softies
January 14, 2019
With the Amazon AWS bulldozer grinding away, some animals are fleeing the crushing power of the machine. Others are adopting a different tactic. “At NRF 2019, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform Court Retailers Wary of Amazon” explains that their services offer a quiet place in the jungle.
The write up explains:
Retail is one of the few industries where AWS isn’t likely to have a huge lead. That reality means Google and Microsoft can pitch their AI and cloud wares to a receptive audience.
Will Google and Microsoft adopt the IBM FUD approach? Will retailers who want to sell to the federal government become more flexible when Amazon’s GovCloud becomes more dense?
DarkCyber anticipates changes which will pose considerable hurdles to Google and Microsoft as places to sell and relax in the Amazon rain forest.
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2019
Amazonia for January 14, 2018
January 14, 2019
Tired of buying stuff on Here’s some Amazonia to start your week off the Amazon way.
Management Romance?
“Did the ‘National Enquirer’ Finally Get One Right with Its Sensational Exposé of Bezos’s Affair?” reveals some interesting information. DarkCyber has no comment.
Buying Technology
Amazon purchased the Israel based CloudEndure. I did not know that clouds could “endure”. I get the idea though. With this technology, Amazon is able to deliver better disaster recovery. Is the technology better than that from every other cloud outfit? It may be because most cloud disaster recovery systems are not exactly the same as opening the refrigerator door. Additional details are available from GeekWire; for example, the estimated purchase price of a tiny fraction of the Bezos divorce settlement.
Yes, One Million
According to the Verge, more than one million people have preordered the Echo Auto device. It is less expensive than purchasing a Tesla. Since an errant 90 year old smashed my beloved Kia in a parking lot, I don’t think much about automobiles. But obviously a million people do and trust Amazon to deliver a better auto experience.
Amazon Partner Marketing
Becoming an Amazon partner may be a step some outfits may want to consider. Coupa, a financial outfit, is ramping up its Amazon love. According to Pymnts:
Coupa users can link their accounts to Amazon Web Services to automatically have AWS invoices sent to the Coupa platform. The integration means companies using both Coupa and AWS can more quickly process those invoices, while gaining enhanced visibility into their spend with AWS services. The integration deploys Coupa’s InvoiceSmash solution, which accelerates invoice processing and payments for users, aimed at enabling companies to capture early payment discounts from their suppliers.
Many of Amazon’s partners are companies which have for many observers a low profile. DarkCyber Annex believes that if Amazon gains traction in the business sector, getting into the Amazon partner arena may be a wise move.
Amazon and Its Satellite Play
Why is Amazon embracing satellites? One answer may be is that cloud computing can reach into the great beyond. According to Formtek:
Amazon AWS brings new meaning to SaaS. It’s Satellite as a Service, actually named AWS Ground Service. Ground Station attempts to make the world of satellite data capture and processing into a utility service, something that can be easily turned on and off without up-front capital expenditures. Their target audience are businesses, researchers, governments and space agencies. The goal is to make the upload and download of data from satellites simpler and cost effective.
DarkCyber Annex knows that Google loves those balloons. Facebook once had solar powered gizmos. Microsoft has ground based Azure. Amazon appears to have some folks who wants to do the final frontier thing whether these is a demand or note.
The Future of Software Innovation
DarkCyber Annex believes that the future of software innovation is to use AWS. An interesting example is documented in Diginomica. The news service reports:
The way that Zendesk has built its new Sunshine platform on AWS is a groundbreaking new take on enterprise SaaS that looks to the future of CRM.
Amazon’s infrastructure will enable more than CRM.
Amazon’s Content Management Play
Amazon could print ebooks. But the company did not have a robust, ready-to-use document management system. OpenText and its like were happy with this state of affairs. Unfortunately, both open source centric and proprietary document management outfits may face a new reality. Their world has changed. ZDNet ran a story with the title “Watch Out MongoDB.AWS Launches Fully Managed Document Database Service.” The problem is that the target is not just open source database systems. Those under threat include the folks who rarely think about Amazon as much more than a glorified eCommerce site. I would wager $1 that the Omnifind crowd at IBM is unlikely to change its stripes because of this announcement. Perhaps this indifference may be a misstep?
Amazon and the Microsoft Compatibility
Amazon seems to be neutral when it comes to criticizing its cross town rival. But Amazon partners are not subject to the same management restraint. DarkCyber Annex noted that Yahoo reported via Business Wire:
ECS, a leading provider of advanced technology, science, and engineering solutions, and a Premier Consulting Partner in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) Partner Network (APN), announced that it is a launch partner of the new file-sharing system Amazon FSx for Windows File Server. An automatically scaled and fully managed file system, Amazon FSx has native compatibility supporting the features, performance, and security capabilities most used by commercial and public sector customers. The system automates time-consuming administration tasks such as hardware provisioning, software configuration, patching, and backups.
Another AWS ecosystem partner. This one is edging into Microsoft’s sacred territory. “Plug compatible” — those words signaled a change for IBM. AWS partner may be a similar token.
Stephen E Arnold, January 14, 2019
Amazonia, January 7, 2019
January 7, 2019
The Bezos bulldozer keeps on pushing through the virgin forest. Crunch, crunch—That’s the sound of the power of the machine creating new revenue streets and highways. Consider these bits of Amazonia:
One of the Five Eyes Is Smiling
One branch of the British government has inked a deal with Amazon to build the “Crown Marketplace.” Think in terms of the British version of GSA/DSA running on Amazon’s AWS infrastructure, buying goodies from Amazon’s warehouses, and getting some of the stuff delivered in nifty Amazon trucks. When will GHCQ follow the CIA’s approach and use Amazon for plumbing? Source: The Telegraph which dearly wants your email address.
GovCloud West: EC2 High Memory Arrives
Most commercial outfits won’t care or understand the steady expansion of the breadth and depth of the GovCloud. Mark your calendar, while some folks were guzzling Champaign, Amazon Amazon EC2 High Memory instances with up to 12 TB of memory to the US GovCloud West region. Source: Amazon itself. Want to know more about “high memory”? Click this link.
FBI Uses Amazon Facial Recognition Service
The policeware landscape is being reshaped by the Bezos bulldozer. Navigate to “FBI Pilot Programme Uses Amazon’s Controversial Facial Recognition Software.” Keep in mind that this write up comes from the ever friendly, always objective Sputnik News. The write up reports:
Sputnik reported that the artificial intelligence behind Rekognition, which can identify, track, and analyze people and recognize up to 100 faces in a single image, was being marketed by Amazon to US police departments for as little as $6 a month. That tiny fee gave law enforcement agencies access to Amazon Web Services (AWS). In turn, Amazon requested that those agencies recommend the brand to their partners, including body camera manufacturers, according to documents obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU).
That’s a compelling price point for many law enforcement entities. True or false. Well, the secret region is a thing.
Perception Health Embraces the AWS Marketplace
The Amazon watchers at ArnoldIT.com noted this statement:
Perception Health, a leading provider of healthcare market prediction software, announced today their inclusion on the new machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) discovery page on AWS Marketplace.
Why? Bezos’ bulldozer is turning to health. Perception Health wants to dabble in the machine learning marketplace Amazon has built along side its streaming data marketplace. Perception likes the strokes Amazon doles out to its partners. Good partner, the Bezos bulldozer rumbles softly. Source: PRNewswire
Where’s That Blog Belong?
The answer is on AWS. WordPress is a popular blogging platform. WPEngine stated:
WP Engine leverages a modern technology stack to make sure our customers have the resources they need to scale their WordPress environments. It’s why we give our customers access to a suite of developer tools they can use to build great websites, and it’s why we utilize best-in-class technologies like Amazon Web Services (AWS) to add resiliency and speed to our digital experience platform.
Different cheer, same enthusiasm. Source: WPEngine
PHP and Amazon
You know PHP. You want zero hardware to drag down your nights and weekends. You will embrace AWS Lamda. Details are in “Severless PHP on AWS Lambda.” If you want to know more about AWS Lambda, click here. Source: PHPDeveloper
Microservices on Amazon
Screw up one part of a microservice based app and you can have an exciting time of it. But what if one wants to combine the goodness of microservices with the Bezos bulldozer? No problem. Details plus code appear in “How to Deploy a Microservice Application to AWS.” Now about those microservices which don’t “service”? Sparse info, gentle reader.
H2O Analytics Run Better on AWS
Hard to believe that an Amazon partner helps market itself and Amazon with such enthusiasm. Here’s an example of nerd cheerleading:
If you haven’t started migrating your analytics to the cloud, then hopefully this will convince you to start reconsidering. The opportunity to have access to a 64, 96 or even 128 core machines with 2TB of RAM rarely crosses the path of most Data Scientists. This can mostly be accredited to the fact that most of us don’t really need such a large machine for what we need to achieve, see Szilard’s twitter posts if you need convincing. Another reason that we don’t use these big machines are purely because we just don’t have access to such machines within our working environments. Luckily for us, access to cloud computing have become more accessible and well, lets be honest, cheap as chips.
Yep, rah rah. Source: Digital Age Economist (aren’t all economists now alive “digital age economists”?)
IBM at the Consumer Electronic Show
January 6, 2019
Yep, IBM is a consumer product company. I know this because I read “LA Sues Weather Channel App Over Stealthy Data Collection.” Consumer centric outfits like Facebook and Google may operate this way. If IBM is indeed sucking and selling data from is Weather Channel App, it too must be a consumer products’ company.
I noted “Struggling IBM Uses CES to Reinvent Itself.” I assumed that that reinvention was selling data. But, no, once again I was incorrect, a common failing.
I learned from the write up:
At CES, Rometty is expected to emphasize IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) undisputed AI chops along with its aggressive moves into the hybrid cloud market and quantum computing. But the underlying theme will be what the company characterizes as “new data,” and using AI and cloud platforms to “refine” data into something useful.
I thought it was a somewhat squishy marketing opportunity, a way to disappoint stakeholders, and a cloud of fog generated about mainframes actually selling.
No CES for me. My hunch is that those seeking gadgets will have a tough time hauling away Watson on a laptop or a desktop IBM quantum computer.
See, IBM does do consumer products as long as one defines consumer in a somewhat narrow sense.
But that sneaky app thing is promising. Isn’t the former head of the Weather Channel now head of Watson. The IBM revolving door makes me dizzy.
Stephen E Arnold, January 6, 2019
Factualities, January 2, 2019
January 2, 2019
Anyone can create facts. How about these “factualities” for the second day of the new year?
1,000,000. The number of Web sites allegedly seized by the US government. The data suggest lawyers are often iffy in the math department. Source: TechDirt
58 million. The number of YouTube videos removed by Google in the third quarter of 2018. Engadget
101 million dollars. The amount Dataiku, a French outfit, has raised for its collaborative data science platform. Two points: That’s a hefty sum for French Silicon Valley type companies. And Dataiku has some Dassault Exalead alums. Source: Techcrunch
150+. The number of companies to which Facebook allegedly gave user data. Source: Slashdot
75 percent. The number of artists whose work is in US museums. Source: Technology Review
90 percent. Spam calls made in India by telecom companies. Source: Quartz
300 percent. The amount by which spam calls grew in 2018. Source: Verge
20 percent. The percentage of US adults who get their news from social media. Source: Pew Research
49 percent. The relative number of cloud databases which are online but not encrypted. Source: Dark Reading
46 percent. Percentage of organizations surveyed by Tata, an Indian services firm, which have implemented artificial intelligence. Source: Venture Beat
21. Number of Google self driving autos attacked in Arizona. Source: Business Insider
80 percent. The number of Bitcoin wallets which hold less than $100. Source: Next Web
I want to start the new year with a renewed commitment to believe almost everything I read on the Internet.
Stephen E Arnold, January 2, 2018
Calling Dr. Bezos
December 31, 2018
Amazon has dominated every market it has entered, from books to cloud computing. With their eyes trained to the medical world, it looks like there is little to stop them. We discovered a little more about this intention from a recent Health Data Management story, “Amazon Launches NLP Service to Process Unstructured Text.”
According to the story:
“Amazon Comprehend Medical is being touted as a natural language processing service that makes it easy to use machine learning to accurately and quickly extract relevant information from unstructured text, such as medical notes, prescriptions, audio interview transcripts, as well as pathology and radiology reports.”
Proponents of this new endeavor tout the advances and ease that it will provide. However, not everyone thinks Prime for medical decisions is such a slam dunk. Thankfully, there are clear-eyed individuals, like Wharton School looking at this issue from all angles. As you might expect, there are a lot of grey areas and periods of adjustment that must be made in order for Amazon’s medical wing to really take flight. However, we have seen these hurdles jumped over before and have a hunch Amazon will make it work.
Patrick Roland, December 31, 2018
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