Google: Poked Painfully in Its Snout
March 15, 2023
The essay “Why Didn’t DeepMind Build GPT3?” identifies three reasons for Google getting poked in its snout. According to the author, the reasons were [a] no specific problem to solve, [b] less academic hoo haa at OpenAI, and [c] less perceived risk. My personal view is that Googlers’ intelligence is directed at understanding their navels, not jumping that familiar Silicon Valley chasm. (Microsoft marketers spotted an opportunity and grabbed it. Boom. Score one for the Softies.)
Google’s management team reacting to ChatGPT’s marketing success. The art was created via https://scribblediffusion.com/ who owns the creative juices required to fabricate this interesting depiction of Google caught in a moment of management decision making.
These reasons make sense to me. I would suggest that several other Google characteristics played a role, probably bit parts, but roles nevertheless.
Since 2006, Google fragmented; that is, the idea of Google providing great benefit as an heir to the world of IBM and Microsoft gave Google senior managers a Droit du seigneur. However, the revenue for the company came from the less elevated world of online advertising. Thus, there was a disconnect after the fraught early years, the legal battle prior to the IPO, and the development of the mostly automated systems to make sure Google captured revenue in the buying and selling and brokering of online advertising. After 2006, the split between what Google management believed it had created and the reality of the business was institutionalized. Google and smart software was perceived as the one right way. Period. That way was a weird blend of group think and elite academic methods.
Also, Google failed to bring direction and focus to its products. I no longer remember how many messaging services Google offered. I cannot keep track of the company’s different and increasingly oblique investment arms. I have given up trying to recall the many new product and service incubators the company launched. I do remember that Google wanted to solve death. That, I believe, proved to be a difficult problem as if Loon balloons, digital games, and dealing with revenue challengers like Amazon and Facebook were no big deal. The fragmentation struck me as similar to the colored particles tossed during Holi, just with a more negative environmental effect. Googlers were vision impaired when it came to seeing what priorities to set.
Plus, from my point of view Google professionals lacked the ability to focus beyond getting more money, influence, and access to the senior managers. In short, Google demonstrated the inability to manage its people and the company. The last few years have been characterized by employee issues and other legal swamps. The management method has reminded me of my high school science club. Every member was a top student. Every member believed their view was correct. Every member believed that the traditional methods of teaching were stupid, boring, and irrelevant. The problem was that instead of chasing money and closeness to the “senior managers”, my high school science club was chasing validation and manifestation of superiority. That was baloney, of course, but what do 16 year olds actually understand. Google’s management is similar to my high school science club.
Are there other factors? Sure, and these include a wildly fluctuating moral compass, confusing personal objectives with ethical objectives, and giving into base instincts (baby making in the legal department, heroin on a yacht with a specialized contractor, and March Madness fun in Las Vegas).
Who will chronicle these Google gaffes? Perhaps someone will input a text string into ChatGPT to get the information many have either ignored, forgotten, or did not understand.
Stephen E Arnold, March xx, 2022
Elasticsearch Guide: More of a Cheat Sheet
March 15, 2023
Elasticsearch has been a go-to solution for searching content either via the open source version or the Elastic technical support option. The system works, and it has many followers and enthusiasts. As a result, one can locate “help” easily online for many hitches in the git along.
I found the information in “Unlocking the Power of Elasticsearch: A Comprehensive Guide to Complex Search Use Cases.” I would suggest that the write up is more like a cheat sheet. Encounter a specific task, check the “Guide,” and sally forth.
I would suggest that many real-life enterprise search needs are often difficult to solve. Examples range from capturing data on a sales professional’s laptop before the colleague deletes the slide dek with the revised price quotation data. No search engine on the planet can get this important information to the legal department if the project goes off the rails. “I can’t find it” is not a helpful answer.
Similar challenges arise when the Elasticsearch system must interact with a line item for a product specified in a purchase order which has a corresponding engineering drawing. Line up the chemical, civil, mechanical, and nuclear engineers and tell them, “Well, that’s an object embedded in the what-do-you-call-it software I never heard of.” Yeah.
Nevertheless, for some helpful tips give the free guide a look.
The mantra is, “Search is easy. Search is a solved problem. Search is no big deal.” Convince yourself. Keep in mind that the mantra does not ring true to me nor does it make me calm.
Stephen E Arnold, March 15, 2023
Interesting Critique of the Google
March 14, 2023
I know there are other browsers available. For many people Google Chrome is THE browser. Microsoft figured out that Credge was cheaper and probably less likely to be zapped by the Google. Vivaldi is a browser working to attract users and provide a less money-centric software cocoon for online users. It too uses the Chromium engine.
I read “Vivaldi Co-Founder: Advertisers Stole the Internet from Us.” The article is mostly content marketing; nevertheless, I noted a handful of assertions and factoids I found thought provoking.
Here are a few. My observation about the comment appears in italics.
… part of the issue companies like Google may have is that Vivaldi blocks a lot of tracking and gets around advertisements in novel ways. No surprise I believe.
Android’s Privacy Sandbox can track users by creating an offline profile on them and show relevant advertisements based on that. No surprise I believe. Google dies without ad revenue.
… data can be used to influence how people vote, à la Cambridge Analytica. No surprise. Control the information, gain power.
the current state of advertising is less profitable for sites now than it was before widespread tracking was in place. No surprise but Google benefits because it “owns” the rights to charge people to enter and leave Club Ad via its swinging door.
The situation is clear: A small company faces a long slog up Mt. Everest without cold weather gear. Does the government of Nepal care? Nope.
Stephen E Arnold, March 14, 2023
If Google Is Online Advertising, Why Does Malvertising Thrive?
March 14, 2023
I think this question struck me after reading a few paragraphs of “Malvertising on Google Ads: It’s Hiding in Plain Site.” The essay is designed to cause a reader to embrace the commerce malware service provided by Kolide. How do I know? Here’s the statement that tipped me off:
Want to see how Kolide can get your entire fleet updated, patched and compliant? Watch Kolide’s on-demand demo today.
Despite the content marketing sway in the article, I noted an interesting comment about Google. After citing a Googley statement about the online ad giant’s good intentions and methods for dealing with malware, the write up says:
Unfortunately, the search engine does not provide a definition nor examples of what falls under “egregious violations.” And given how easy it is for bad actors to simply make a new account when a new one is shut down, this approach doesn’t meet the requirements for reliability or scalability. Still, when you look at things from Google’s perspective, these policies make sense.
In my opinion, Google happily delivers malvertising because Google sells advertising. The company does not want to harm its revenue. Just as the pop ads running on top of YouTube videos, Google is not losing revenue. The company says, “No more overlays in a few months.” Why? Is it because Google will introduce Amazon-Twitch style unskippable ads, insert more unskippable commercials in videos, and add more end-of-video ads? Absolutely. Google is not going to give up revenue in my opinion.
Shifting the responsibility for identifying and remediating issues with Google ad-delivered malware is good for cyber security companies and super good for Google. My view is that we have one more example of specious behavior from a company unable to get its ethical compass focused on any direction but its revenue.
Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2023
Synthetic Data: Yes, They Are a Thing
March 13, 2023
“Real” data — that is, data generated by humans — are expensive to capture, normalize, and manipulate. But, those “real” data are important. Unfortunately some companies have sucked up real data and integrated those items into products and services. Now regulators are awakening from a decades-long slumber and taking a look into the actions of certain data companies. More importantly, a few big data outfits are aware of the [a] the costs and [b] the risks of real data.
Enter synthetic data.
If you are unfamiliar with the idea, navigate to “What is Synthetic Data? The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.” The article states:
The privacy engineering community can help practitioners and stakeholders identify the use cases where synthetic data can be used safely, perhaps even in a semi-automated way. At the very least, the research community can provide actionable guidelines to understand the distributions, types of data, tasks, etc. where we could achieve reasonable privacy-utility tradeoffs via synthetic data produced by generative models.
Helpful, correct?
The article does not point out two things which I find of interest.
First, the amount of money a company can earn by operating efficient synthetic data factories is likely to be substantial. Like other digital products, the upside can be profitable and give the “owner” of the synthetic data market and IBM-type of old-school lock in.
Second, synthetic data can be weaponized either intentionally via data poisoning or algorithm shaping.
I just wanted to point out that a useful essay does not explore what may be two important attributes of synthetic data. Will regulators rise to the occasion? Unlikely.
Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2023
The Confluence: Big Tech, Lobbyists, and the US Government
March 13, 2023
I read “Biden Admin’s Cloud Security Problem: It Could Take Down the Internet Like a Stack of Dominos.” I was thinking that the take down might be more like the collapses of outfits like Silicon Valley Bank.
I noted this statement about the US government, which is
embarking on the nation’s first comprehensive plan to regulate the security practices of cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Oracle, whose servers provide data storage and computing power for customers ranging from mom-and-pop businesses to the Pentagon and CIA.
Several observations:
- Lobbyists have worked to make it easy for cloud providers and big technology companies to generate revenue is an unregulated environment.
- Government officials have responded with inaction and spins through the revolving door. A regulator or elected official today becomes tomorrow’s technology decision maker and then back again.
- The companies themselves have figured out how to use their money and armies of attorneys to do what is best for the companies paying them.
What’s the consequence? Wonderful wordsmithing is one consequence. The problem is that now there are Mauna Loas burbling in different places.
Three of them are evident: The fragility of Silicon Valley approach to innovation. That’s reactive and imitative at this time. The second issue is the complexity of the three body problem resulting from lobbyists, government methods, and monopolistic behaviors. Commercial enterprises have become familiar with the practice of putting their thumbs on the scale. Who will notice?
What will happen? The possible answers are not comforting. Waving a magic wand and changing what are now institutional behaviors established over decades of handcrafting will be difficult.
I touch on a few of the consequences in an upcoming lecture for the attendees at the 2023 National Cyber Crime Conference.
Stephen E Arnold, March 13, 2023
Is It Groundhog Day? Googzilla Chases Its Tail
March 10, 2023
In the buzz of Code Red, Google has a management fix for the damage caused by Microsoft’s ChatGPT marketing attack. “Google Dusts Off the Failed Google+ Playbook to Fight ChatGPT” states:
Google’s ChatGPT panic seemed a lot like its response to Google+, and several employees relayed that same sentiment to Bloomberg. Just like with G+, the report added that “current and former employees say at least some Googlers’ ratings and reviews will likely be influenced by their ability to integrate generative AI into their work.”
Google+ (try and search that, Google search fans). Does Google Plus work? How about a combo of “Google+ Plus Orkut” as a query?
The write up passes along a quote by an unnamed Google wizard:
“We’re throwing spaghetti at the wall, but it’s not even close to what’s needed to transform the company and be competitive.”
My take on this reference to Google+ or Google Plus is:
1. The sources for this story are not Googley and, therefore, cannot appreciate the management brilliance
2. The Google is out of ideas; that is, the Code Red thing and idea that it will be smart software everywhere is a knee jerk reaction
3. Googzilla is chasing its tail; that is, senior management has not idea what to do and hits upon this idea, “Google+ or Plus was a success. Let’s do that again.”
Net net: Is it groundhog day at the Googleplex? Next question: What confidence does one have in groundhogs?
Stephen E Arnold, March 10, 2023
DarkTrace: A Cyber Security Star Makes an Analyst Bayes at the Moon
March 10, 2023
DarkTrace is a cyber security firm which used Sir Thomas Bayes’s math to thwart bad actors. “Fresh Clouds for Darktrace as New York Hedge Fund Claims Concerns Borne Out” states:
Quintessential Capital Management, which previously expressed its “fear that sales, margins, and growth rates may be overstated” today said: “Darktrace’s recent financial results are consistent with our thesis: growth, new customers, cash generation and profits are all shrinking fast.
Bayes works for some types of predictive applications. I think the disconnect between the technical methods of DarkTrace and the skeptical venture firm may be related to the distance between what smart software can do and what marketers say the smart software does. In that space are perched investors, stakeholders, employees, and customers.
What has caused a market downturn? The article says that it may be a consequence of ChatGPT? Here’s a statement I noted:
The cybersecurity business said ChatGPT “ may have helped increase the sophistication of phishing emails, enabling adversaries to create more targeted, personalized, and ultimately, successful attacks.” “Darktrace has found that while the number of email attacks across its own customer base remained steady since ChatGPT’s release, those that rely on tricking victims into clicking malicious links have declined, while linguistic complexity, including text volume, punctuation, and sentence length among others, have increased, the firm said.
Is this a case of DarkTrace’s smart software being outfoxed by smarter software? I still believe the marketers bear the responsibility. Knowing exactly how DarkTrace works and the specific results the system can deliver is important. Marketers rarely share my bias. Now the claims of the collateral writers are insufficiently robust to support the skepticism of tweeting analysts at Quintessential Capital Management.
Stephen E Arnold, March 10. 2023
Is Intelware Square Dancing in Israel?
March 10, 2023
It is a hoe down. Allemande Left. Do Si Do. Circle Left. Now Promenade. I can hear the tune in “NSO Group Co-Founder Emerges As New Majority Owner.” My toe was tapping when I read:
Omri Lavie – the “O” in NSO Group … appears to have emerged as the company’s new majority owner. Luxembourg filings show that Lavie’s investment firm, Dufresne Holding, is – for now – the sole owner of a Luxembourg-based holding company that ultimately owns NSO Group.
What’s the company’s technology enable? The Guardian says:
Pegasus can hack into any phone without leaving an obvious trace, enabling users to gain access to a person’s encrypted calls and chats, photographs, emails, and any other information held on a phone. It can also be used to turn a phone into a remote listening device by controlling its recorder.
Is the Guardian certain that this statement embraces the scope of the NSO Group’s capabilities? I don’t know. But the real newspaper sounds sure that it has its facts lined up.
Was the transition smooth? Well, there may have been some choppy water as the new owner boarded. The article reports:
[The] move follows in the wake of multiple legal fights between NSO and a US-based financial company that is now known as Treo, which controls the equity fund that owns a majority stake in NSO. A person familiar with the matter said Treo had been alerted to the change in ownership of the company’s shares in a recent letter by Lavie, which appears to have caught the financial group by surprise. The person said Treo was still trying to figure out the financial mechanism that Lavie had used to assume control of the shares, but that it believed the company’s financial lenders had, in effect, ceded control of the group to the Israeli founder.
I find it interesting when the milieu of intelligence professionals intersects with go-go money people. Is Treo surprised.
Allemande Right. Do Si Do. Promenade home.
Stephen E Arnold, March 10, 2023
Bing Begins, Dear Sundar and Prabhakar
March 9, 2023
Note: Note written by an artificial intelligence wonder system. The essay is the work of a certified dinobaby, a near80-year-old fossil. The Purple Prose parts are made up comments by me, the dinobaby, to help improve the meaning behind the words.
I think the World War 2 Dear John letter has been updated. Today’s version begins:
Dear Sundar and Prabhakar…
“The New Bing and Edge – Progress from Our First Month” by Yusuf Mehdi explains that Bing has fallen in love with marketing. The old “we are so like one another, Sundar and Prabhakar” is now
“The magnetic Ms. OpenAI introduced me to her young son, ChatGPT. I am now going steady with that large language model. What a block of data! And I hope, Sundar and Prabhakar, we can still be friends. We can still chat, maybe at the high school reunion? Everyone will be there. Everyone. Timnit Gebru, Jerome Pesenti, Yan Lecun, Emily Bender, and you two, of course.”
The write up does not explicitly say these words. Here’s the actual verbiage from the marketing outfit also engaged in unpatchable security issues:
It’s hard to believe it’s been just over a month since we released the new AI-powered Bing and Edge to the world as your copilot for the web. In that time, we have heard your feedback, learned a lot, and shipped a number of improvements. We are delighted by the virtuous cycle of feedback and iteration that is driving strong Bing improvements and usage.
A couple of questions? Is the word virtuous related to the word virgin? Pure, chaste, unsullied, and not corrupted by … advertising? Has it been a mere 30 days since Sundar and Prabhakar entered the world of Code Red? Were they surprised that their Paris comedy act drove attendees to Le Bar Bing? Is the copilot for the Web ready to strafe the digital world with Bing blasts?
Let’s look at what the love letter reports:
- A million new users. What’s the Google pulled in with their change in the curse word policy for YouTube?
- More searches on Le Bing than before the tryst with ChatGPT. Will Google address relevance ranking of bogus ads for a Thai restaurant favored by a certain humanoid influencer?
- A mobile app. Sundar and Prabhakar, what’s happening with your mobile push? Hasn’t revenue from the Play store declined in the last year? Declined? Yep. As in down, down, down.
Is Bing a wonder working relevance engine? No way.
Is Bing going to dominate my world of search of retrieval? For the answer, just call 1 800 YOU WISH, please.
Is Bing winning the marketing battle for smarter search? Oh, yeah.
Well, Sundar and Prabhakar, don’t let that Code Red flashing light disturb your sleep. Love and kisses, Yusuf Mehdi. PS: The high school reunion is coming up. Maybe we can ChatGPT?
Stephen E Arnold, March 9, 2023
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